Members Only

MEMBERS ONLY

DOW 11000 DOESN'T HAVE MUCH TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE AND PROBABLY WON'T STOP THE DOW'S ADVANCE -- BUT CHART RESISTANCE IS VISIBLE BETWEEN 11200 AND 11600 -- KEEP AN EYE ON UPPER MONTHLY BOLLINGER BAND AS A POTENTIAL UPSIDE TARGET

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW REACHES 11000... A lot is being made in the media about the ability of the Dow Industrials to reach the 11,000 level which has led to a discussion as to whether or not that number means anything. That's what we'll try to determine here....   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

EMERGING CURRENCIES HAVE BEEN RISING AGAINST THE DOLLAR -- EVEN THE CHINESE YUAN IS CLIMBING -- WHY RISING BOND YIELDS ARE GOOD FOR STOCKS AND BAD FOR TREASURIES -- OTHER BOND CATEGORIES ARE LESS RATE SENSITIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES ARE RISING... My Tuesday message repeated the view that the 2010 increase in the U.S. Dollar Index has masked gains in a lot of foreign currencies (mainly because of its heavy weighting in Europe and Japan). I showed February upturns in commodity-based currencies like the Aussie...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

GOLD AND GOLD MINERS INDEX TURN UP -- NEWMONT AND SILVER WHEATEN ARE GDX LEADERS -- BARRICK GOLD IS BREAKING OUT -- GOLD MINERS BULLISH PERCENT INDEX SHOWS MOST GDX STOCKS HAVE TURNED UP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GLD COMPLETES H&S BOTTOM ... In last Thursday's message, I wrote a positive piece on commodity prices in general, and precious metals in particular (PRECIOUS METALS ARE TURNING UP). Part of my renewed optimism on the group was caused by the fact that silver had already turned...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

WHY COMMODITIES ARE STRONGER THAN THEY APPEAR WHILE THE DOLLAR IS WEAKER -- TOO MUCH FOCUS IS BEING PLACED ON THE WEAK EURO AND NOT ENOUGH ON RISING COMMODITY CURRENCIES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR STRENGTH COMES FROM EUROPE AND JAPAN ... In a message dated March 2, I expressed the view that the dollar wasn't as strong as it appeared to be. I also wrote that an upturn in commodity-based currencies would lend support to commodity prices. I'd like to...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

STRONG JOBS REPORT BOOSTS STOCKS AND COMMODITIES -- BUT TREASURY BONDS TUMBLE AS YIELDS SURGE --COMMODITY ETF TURNS UP -- GOLD AND ENERGY SHARES ARE BREAKING OUT -- PLATINUM LEADS PRECIOUS METALS HIGHER -- EMERGING MARKET ETF HITS NEW 2010 HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS SURGE ON STRONG JOBS REPORT... There's good and bad news in Friday's strong jobs report. The bad news is that bond yields are surging. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX surging to the highest level since last June and heading for...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

GROWTH IN CHINA -- AND HIGHER CHINESE STOCKS -- BOOSTS STOCKS AND COMMODITIES -- ENERGY AND PRECIOUS METALS ARE TURNING UP ALONG WITH THEIR SHARES -- SILVER IS LEADING GOLD HIGHER -- NYSE COMPOSITE AND SOX HIT NEW 2010 HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

JUMP IN CHINESE SHARES BOOSTS COMMODITIES ... Stocks and commodity markets are rallying today on news of an expansion in manufacturing in China, which is the world's biggest user of commodities. A few weeks back I wrote that weakness in Chinese shares was one of the factors weighing on...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

DOLLAR PULLS BACK WITHIN RISING CHANNEL - OIL AND GASOLINE CHALLENGE RESISTANCE - GOLD CHALLENGES FLAG/CHANNEL RESISTANCE - GOLD HOLDING UP BETTER THAN THE EURO - PLATINUM, SILVER AND COPPER MAINTAIN UPTRENDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR PULLS BACK WITHIN RISING CHANNEL... Link for todays video. Wednesday is turning into a redux of Monday. The Euro advanced, the Dollar fell, oil bounced and commodities moved higher. Lets start with the Euro and the Dollar. Chart 1 shows the Euro ETF (FXE) within a clear downtrend defined...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

APPLYING PERCENTAGE BOX SIZES TO POINT & FIGURE CHARTS ON THE DOLLAR, COMMMODITIES, AND BOND ETFS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

USING PERCENT P&F BOX SIZE ... My recent point & figure articles have been limited to stock indexes and traditional box sizes. Some readers have asked about the use of "percentage" box sizes. I find percentage box sizes very helpful, especially when looking at financial markets other...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SPY STALLS AT CHANNEL TRENDLINE - EURO GETS OVERSOLD BOUNCE - STRENGTH IN CHINA LIFTS CRUDE - ENERGY SECTOR RECOVERS AFTER SUPPORT BREAK - GOLD STALLS AFTER BIG SURGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY STALLS AT CHANNEL TRENDLINE ... Link for todays video. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) are trading near the upper trendline of a rising price channel that extends back to August. I drew the lower trendline first, created a second parallel trendline and then...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

MARKET ADVANCE EXCEEDS 52 WEEKS - NET NEW HIGHS EXPAND IN MARCH - EARLY SIGNS OF RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN SMALLCAPS - IWM STALLS AS MACD ROLLS OVER - NASDAQ NET ADVANCES HIT HARD THIS WEEK - NYSE AD VOLUME LINE FORMS SMALL NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARKET ADVANCE EXCEEDS 52 WEEKS ... Link for todays video. Net New Highs on the NYSE and Nasdaq were exceptionally strong this month. This is hardly surprising considering that the current advance turned 1 year old in March. Perfchart 1 shows performance for the major indices since early March 2009. These...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

USE 45 DEGREE TRENDLINES TO FILTER P&F SIGNALS -- USING FIVE-BOX REVERSALS AS ADDITIONAL FILTER -- THE S&P 500 CONTINUES FIFTH WAVE ADVANCE WITH NO SIGN OF TOP -- NEXT POTENTIAL TARGET IS 1250 TO 1300 ZONE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

USING TRENDLINES AS FILTERS... I received so much feedback on my Tuesday point & figure message that I'd like to use this article to answer some of the questions and elaborate on the technique even further. My Tuesday message showed two versions of the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (using...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

DIA FORMS INSIDE DAY AT CHANNEL RESISTANCE - BONDS FALL SHARPLY ON RECORD TREASURY AUCTION - EURO EXTENDS DOWNTREND WITH SHARP DECLINE - DOLLAR ETF SURGES TO EIGHT MONTH HIGH - SURGING DOLLAR PUSHES GOLD BELOW 1100

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

A STRANGE DAY INDEED... Link for todays video. Before getting to todays gap, I would like to start with an overview and observation. Stocks started the day weak and remained weak throughout the day. Eight of the nine sectors were down with healthcare and utilities leading the way lower. These...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

HOW TO SENSITIVE P&F CHARTS TO SUIT DIFFERENT TIME DIMENSIONS -- USER BIGGER BOX SIZES FOR MAJOR TRENDS AND SMALLER BOXES FOR SHORT-TERM TRADING SIGNALS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CHANGE BOX SIZE TO VARY SENSITIVITY ... One of the things I like most about point & figure charts is the clarity and simplicity of their buy and sell signals. And you can adjust the charts to suit the time frame you're trading. Less sensitive charts lend themselves to...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

QQQQ SHRUGS OFF BEARISH ENGULFING - SEMIS LEAD TECHS - AMAT BREAKS TRIANGLE RESISTANCE - LRCX SURGES ON GOOD VOLUME - XLY HITS CHANNEL RESISTANCE - RETAIL ETF CONTINUES TO LEAD - VIX HITS COMPLACENCY LOW FROM MAY 2008

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQQ SHRUGS OFF BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN ... Link for todays video. Many of the major index ETFs formed bearish engulfing patterns on Friday, but these were not confirmed with further weakness on Monday. A bearish engulfing pattern forms when the open is above the prior close and the close is below...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

EURO FAILS AT RESISTANCE - STRONG DOLLAR WEIGHS ON OIL - WEAKNESS IN OIL HITS ENERGY ETFS - GOLD FALLS ALONG WITH OIL - BOND ETFS CHALLENGE RESISTANCE - 10 CURRENCY PERFCHART - PESO HITS NEW HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EURO FAILS AT RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. Continued concerns with Greece weighed on the Euro as it failed at first resistance. Fundamentally, France and Germany do not agree (surprise, surprise) on the details of a rescue package. France favors a European solution, while Germany favors IMF involvement. Whatever the...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

NEW 2010 HIGH BY DOW INDUSTRIALS KEEPS DOW THEORY UPTREND INTACT -- UPS AND FDX LEAD TRANPORTS HIGHER -- RECENT DOW LEADERS INCLUDE CISCO, DUPONT, GE, INTEL, AND WALMART

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TRANSPORTS BROKE OUT LAST WEEK ... I pointed out over a week ago (on Tuesday March 9) that the Dow Transports had broken through their 2010 which was a good sign for the stock market and the economy. That's because transportation stocks are cyclical in nature and do better...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

MCCLELLAN SUMMATION INDICES EXCEED JANUARY HIGHS - NET ADVANCES VERSUS NET ADVANCING VOLUME - NYSE AD LINE CONTINUES ITS RUN - NYSE AD VOLUME LINE HITS NEW HIGH - NASDAQ AD VOLUME LINE EXCEEDS 2007 HIGH - SHORT-TERM BREADTH WEAKENS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MCCLELLAN SUMMATION INDICES EXCEED JANUARY HIGHS... Link for todays video. There are many ways to measure breadth. AD Lines and AD Volume Lines are two of the purest breadth indicators. The raw data goes through relatively little manipulation and the formula is simple. While the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

WEAKER DOLLAR BOOSTS GOLD -- NEWMONT LEADS MINERS HIGHER -- CANADIAN DOLLAR HITS 52-WEEK HIGH AND IS STRONGEST CURRENCY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOUNCE IN EURO WEAKENS DOLLAR ... Chart 1 shows the U.S. Dollar Index continuing the pullback that started nearly a month ago. A lot of the recent selling is the result of a bounce in Euro as shown in Chart 2. Although no major trend reversals have taken place, the...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SPY MAKES IT 12 STRAIGHT - PARTY LIKE IT'S 1995 - OIL HITS RESISTANCE - WEAKNESS IN OIL WEIGHS ON XLE - OIH REMAINS IN UP SWING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SPY MAKES IS 12 STRAIGHT... Link for todays video. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) eked out another gain on Monday to make it twelve straight days with a closing gain. Chart 1 shows SPY trading above its January high the last three days. The blue dotted lines define...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

S&P 500 IS TESTING JANUARY HIGH -- INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATE BOND ETF HITS NEW HIGHS -- PULLBACK IN US DOLLAR MAY GIVE TIPS A LIFT -- WEAKNESS IN CHINESE STOCKS MAY BE WEIGHING ON COMMODITIES --REITS HIT NEW HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 TESTS JANUARY HIGH ... I wrote on Tuesday that the number of stock indexes and groups hitting new 2010 highs called for a test of the January high by the S&P 500. Chart 1 shows the S&P in the process of doing that....   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

HEALTHCARE STOCKS LAG - DEFENSIVE SECTORS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS - DOLLAR STALLS NEAR RESISTANCE - EURO BOUNCES NEAR 62% RETRACEMENT - INTEREST RATES AND THE DOLLAR - GOLD FALLS TO SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTHCARE STOCKS LAGGING... Link for todays video. While most of the major indices broke their January high, the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) fell well short of this high and shows relative weakness. Chart 1 shows XLV bouncing with the rest of the market over the last five weeks and hitting resistance...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

QQQQ EXCEEDS JANUARY HIGH - SEMIS LEAD TECHS - INTC HITS RESISTANCE - AMAT TESTS SUPPORT - FINANCE SECTOR CHALLENGES RESISTANCE - C AND WFC SURGE - DOW INDUSTRIALS STALLS BELOW JANUARY HIGH - SHANGHAI COMPOSITE STALLS AT BROKEN SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQQ EXCEEDS JANUARY HIGH... Link for todays video. Stocks moved higher again on Wednesday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) joining the list of ETFs breaking their January high. The move above the January high forges a new 52-week high for this big tech ETF. The last 52-week high occurred...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

ODDS SHIFT TOWARD A FIFTH WAVE RALLY -- NEW HIGHS BY THE NYSE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE AND A GROWING NUMBER OF MARKET GROUPS ARGUE FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE BULL MARKET -- TRUCKERS LEAD TRANSPORTS TO NEW HIGHS AS WELL -- WHERE TO READ UP ON ELLIOTT WAVES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ODDS SHIFT TO FIFTH WAVE RALLY... Arthur Hill's Monday message addressed a couple of different ways to interpret the current Elliott Wave structure. The market is at an inflection point in Elliott Wave terms. Let's briefly review what's at stake and why. From the...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

REACTION LOWS FOR IWM AND RSI - S&P 500 ELLIOTT WAVE REVIEW - FINANCE SECTOR CHALLENGES RESISTANCE - SMH REMAINS BELOW JANUARY HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

REACTION LOWS FOR IWM AND RSI... Link for todays video. An uptrend is defined by higher highs and higher lows. With the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) hitting a new 52-week high last week, we can assume that the overall trend remains up. Chart 1 shows weekly candlesticks for IWM over...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

BONDS ROCKED BY PAYROLLS - BACK TO BASICS WITH HIGHER HIGHS AND HIGHER LOWS FOR SPY - EQUAL-WEIGHT QQQQ VERSUS QQQQ - NET NEW HIGHS EXPAND TO JANUARY LEVELS - OIL CHALLENGES RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BONDS ROCKED BY BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED PAYROLLS... The Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls declined 36,000 for the month of February, which was much better than the consensus estimate for a decline of 68,000 jobs. Positive news on the jobs front sent bonds sharply lower and yields sharply higher. Bonds...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

WEEKLY EMA LINES ARE STILL POSITIVE -- DAILIES TURN POSITIVE -- STRENGTH IN RETAIL STOCKS IS A POSITIVE SIGN FOR THE MARKET -- RETAIL BREAKOUTS ARE OCCURRING IN BIG LOTS, FAMILY DOLLAR STORES, AND TARGET -- AVOID INVERSE ETFS WHILE MARKET IS RISING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WEEKLY EMA COMBINATION IS STILL UP ... Several recent messages have dealt with the use of "daily" exponentially smoothed average (EMA) crossovers (in particular the 13-34 day EMA combination ) to generate buy and sell signals . One reader suggested that I take a longer-range view of things. Another suggested looking...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

DOW LAGS SMALL-CAPS AND MID-CAPS - SURGING EURO WEIGHS ON THE GREENBACK - FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS MATERIALS SECTOR - STEEL ETF FORMS GRAVESTONE DOJI - YIELDS HIT SUPPORT AS BONDS HIT RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW SPDR LAGS OTHER INDICES... Link for todays video. It is a tale of two markets. Small-caps and mid-caps show relative strength, but large-caps show relative weakness. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) hitting a new 52-week high intraday on Wednesday. IWM exceeded the 50-day moving average and...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

STOCK INDEXES EXCEED 50-DAY LINES -- THAT IMPROVES THE MARKET'S SHORT-TERM TREND -- SO DOES THE NYSE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE HITTING A RECORD HIGH -- NEWMONT MINING LEADS GOLD MINERS HIGHER AS GOLD RALLIES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

50 DAY AVERAGES ARE EXCEEDED ... The ability of major U.S. stock indexes to rally back above their 50-day moving averages has improved the market's short-term trend picture. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 closing above its 50-day average for two consecutive days although the line...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SMALL-CAPS AND TECHS LEAD FEBRUARY BOUNCE - IWM OUTPERFORMS SPY ON THE CHART - S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT OUTPERFORMS - CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND STAPLES LEADING - KEY LEVELS FOR XLY AND XLF

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS AND TECHS LEAD THE BOUNCE... Link for todays video. Small-caps and tech stocks are showing relative strength over the last few weeks. There are many ways to measure relative strength or relative weakness. Comparing percentage gains is perhaps the easiest and most straight forward. Perfchart 1 shows the Major...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

EURO DECLINE SLOWS - PICKING THE RIGHT RETRACEMENT - GOLD AND THE EURO STILL POSITIVELY CORRELATED - GOLD BATTLES WEDGE TRENDLINE - OIL, STOCKS AND THE DOLLAR - OIL REMAINS STUCK IN A RUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EURO DECLINE SLOWS... Link for todays video. The decline in the Euro is slowing over the last few weeks, but we have yet to see a bounce last more than two days since late December. Chart 1 shows weekly candlesticks for the Euro ETF (FXE) Should the ETF close down...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

MORE WAYS TO USE MOVING AVERAGES -- 20-50 AND 13-34 EMA COMBINATIONS ARE STILL NEGATIVE -- SIMPLIFY MOVING AVERAGE SIGNALS -- YEN RALLIES IN FLIGHT TO SAFETY AS GLOBAL STOCKS SELLOFF

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MORE SENSITIVE EMA CROSSINGS ... I got such an overwhelming response on Tuesday's message on using exponentially smoothed moving averages (EMAs) in conjunction with simple averages that I'd like to expand even further on the subject. One reader asked if shorter-term EMAs could be employed in a...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR CHALLENGES RESISTANCE - A BEAR TRAP OR OVERSOLD BOUNCE? - WATCHING THE VOLATILITY INDICES - ACCUMULATION DISTRIBUTION LINE VERSUS ON BALANCE VOLUME

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR CHALLENGES RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. While the S&P 500 and the Dow remain well below their January highs, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is challenging its January highs after a sharp advance the last few weeks. Chart 1 shows XLY within a rising price...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

A LOT OF MARKETS ARE MEETING RESISTANCE AT THEIR 50-DAY AVERAGES -- COMBINING SIMPLE AND EMA AVERAGES -- WHY 50-DAY LINES ARE LIKELY TO KEEP FALLING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RALLY STALLS AT 50-DAY LINES ... Two Tuesdays ago (February 9), I wrote a message about the number of markets (domestic and foreign) that were starting to bounce off their 200-day moving averages and the likelihood for a short-term rally. The last part of that headline, however read: 'Expect Resistance...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT FOR S&P 500 - REVIEWING LONG-TERM RETRACEMENTS FOR SPY AND DIA - INTERNATIONAL INDICES ALSO NEAR KEY RETRACEMENTS - XHB CHALLENGES RESISTANCE AS XLF TESTS SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT FOR S&P 500 ... Link for todays video. Chart 1 shows an Elliott Wave interpretation for the S&P 500 over the last three years. There are currently four waves with a potential fifth wave coming. Wave 1 extends down from October 2007 to March...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

RETRACEMENTS REINFORCE MOVING AVERAGES - SHORT-TERM RATES MOVE AHEAD OF FED - RATES STILL LOW BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS - DOLLAR BENEFITS FROM RISING RATES - SWINGS WITHIN THE 2004 CORRECTION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RETRACEMENTS REINFORCE MOVING AVERAGES... This week John Murphy featured the S&P 500 and other global indices with the falling 50-day moving averages coming into play. Key Fibonacci retracements and short-term overbought readings are also coming into play. The Fibonacci Retracements Tool shows potential reversal/resistance levels based on...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

FALLING 50-DAY AVERAGE USUALLY PROVIDES MORE RESISTANCE ON MARKET BOUNCES -- TIME TO SHORT THE YEN? -- ANALYSIS VERSUS REPORTING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOES FALLING 50-DAY LINE MEAN ANYTHING? ... One of our readers correctly points out that the blue 50-day moving average is declining for the first time since last March, and asks if that makes it more of a resistance barrier. The short answer is probably. Although most attention is paid to...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

BONDS FALL AS FED CONSIDERS ASSET SALES - EURO GETS HIT AGAIN - XLF TESTS SUPPORT AROUND 14 - GOLD AND EURO DECOUPLE FOR A FEW DAYS - LOOK AT 2003-2004 SPX FOR CLUES TO CURRENT SITUATION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BONDS FALL AS FED CONSIDERS ASSET SALES... Link for todays video. The Fed released the minutes of its January meeting this afternoon. Shrinking the balance sheet proved a top priority among Fed officials. Among other things, this would involve sales of Treasury bonds the Fed bought during its quantitative easing...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

STOCK AND COMMODITY REBOUND CONTINUES AS EURO BOUNCES AND DOLLAR WEAKENS -- COMMODITY STOCKS LEAD REBOUND -- GLOBAL STOCK INDEXES RALLY TOWARD THEIR 50-DAY AVERAGES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EURO BOUNCES OFF 62% RETRACEMENT LINE ... Most of the U.S. Dollar strength since December has come from a falling Euro. Therefore, any bounce in the Euro has a big influence on the direction of global stocks and commodities. Chart 1 shows the Euro trading well below its 200-day moving...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

TECHS AND SMALL-CAPS SHOW RESILIENCE - SPX HITS LONG TERM REVERSAL ZONE - CHANNEL STILL FALLING FOR SPX - OIL BATTLES SUPPORT - XLE AND OIH ALSO BATTLING SUPPORT - SHANGHAI COMPOSITE BREAKS SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TECHS AND SMALL-CAPS SHOW RESILIENCE... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) are showing relative strength this week. Concerns with Greek debt and monetary tightening in China weighed on stocks in early trading, but buyers stepped in after the morning gap and...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

GREEK SUPPORT PLAN BOOSTS STOCKS AND COMMODITIES -- DAILY AND WEEKLY BOLLINGER BANDS SHOW SUPPORT -- MORE MARKETS BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE -- % NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE HAS FALLEN TO SEVEN-MONTH LOW

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BLENDING DAILY AND WEEKLY BANDS... One of the reasons I thought last Friday's upside reversal day signalled a short-term rally attempt was because it occurred right at its lower Bollinger band as shown in Chart 1. Another reason is that the two bands have started to contract as...   READ MORE