US DOLLAR INDEX HITS FIVE MONTH HIGH... Link for todays video. The US Dollar Index ($USD) reversed course in December and continued strong in January. Weakness in the Euro is the main catalyst for this move. Currencies, and other securities for that matter, can decline simply from a lack of... READ MORE
SUPPORT COMING INTO PLAY FOR IWM AND SPY... Link for todays video. With the January decline, the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has retraced around 50% of the November-January advance and returned to its triangle breakout. Chart 1 shows IWM breaking triangle resistance way back in early December. This broken resistance... READ MORE
YEN IS ALSO A SAFE HAVEN CURRENCY ... Most currency focus has been on the rise in the U.S. Dollar since December. That has not only undermined the commodity rally, but is also siphoning money out of global stocks that had been trending in the opposite direction of the greenback.... READ MORE
MARKETS TURN RISK AVERSE... Arthur Hill has been showing the recent rotation out of former market leaders and into defensive market sectors that are considered to be risk averse. It's an important point that bears repeating. While it's important to look at the technical condition of... READ MORE
DIA FIRMS NEAR SUPPORT ... Link for todays video. After becoming oversold with last weeks decline, stocks firmed over the last three days. Important support levels are coming into play for a number of key indices and ETFs. Chart 1 shows the Dow Diamonds (DIA) hitting support around 101-102. This support... READ MORE
CHINA ISHARES LEAD GLOBAL RETREAT... I wrote a message on January 12 about Chinese central bankers starting to tighten credit, and the fact that Chinese stocks were no longer showing relative strength. In fact, China had lagged the global rally for several months. The biggest negative divergence took place in... READ MORE
ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT FOR THE S&P 500 ... Link for todays video. At the risk of opening Pandoras box, I am going to offer some long-term Elliott Wave analysis for the S&P 500. Like much of technical analysis, Elliott Wave is subjective and open to interpretation. Chart... READ MORE
TECHS LEAD THE MARKET LOWER ... Link for todays video. John Murphy is away this week and will return next week. Stocks came under pressure again on Friday with the technology sector leading the way lower. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) breaking below consolidation support on Thursday and... READ MORE
DOW DROPS OVER 200... Link for todays video. Stocks moved broadly lower on Thursday with the Dow loosing over 200 points. All major indices and sectors finished lower on the day. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials closing above 10700 on Tuesday and 10400 today. This two day decline was... READ MORE
STOCKS GIVE UP TUESDAYS GAINS... Link for todays video. Stocks came under pressure in early trading and closed lower. All major indices were down with small-caps and large techs leading the way lower. These two groups led the major indices higher on Tuesday, but the tables were turned on Wednesday.... READ MORE
TECHS AND SMALL-CAPS LEAD MARKET HIGHER... Link for todays video.After a broad-based decline on Friday, buyers returned and pushed stocks higher on Tuesday. All of the major indices were up strong with large-cap techs and small-caps leading the way higher. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) in... READ MORE
STOCKS FALL SHARPLY ... Link for todays video. Stocks came under pressure for the second time this week. All of the major indices were down on Friday with the small-caps leading the way lower. All nine sectors were down with the finance sector leading lower. Healthcare, consumer staples and utilities, the... READ MORE
STOCKS EDGE HIGHER IN MIXED TRADING... Link for todays video. All major indices finished slightly higher on Thursday, but trading was mixed within the sectors. Four sectors were up, three were down and two were unchanged. Healthcare led the way higher with the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) recording a new 52-week... READ MORE
REIT ISHARES ARE BOUNCING OFF CHART SUPPORT... Last Thursday, I wrote about the improving chart picture in financials and homebuilders, and showed some individual stock leaders in each group. At the end of that message, I showed REIT iShares bouncing off chart support and showing good relative strength. I'... READ MORE
KEEPING AN EYE ON CHINA ... The announcement that China is tightening monetary policy by raising bank reserve requirements has caused nervous profit-taking in global stock and commodity markets. Since China has been the engine driving the global economic recovery (not to mention rising stock and commodity prices), any hint that... READ MORE
DOW THEORY UPDATE CONFIRMED ... Dow Theorists will be happy to see today's first two charts which show the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports hitting new recovery highs. Dow Theory holds that a healthy uptrend should see new highs in one index confirmed by the other, which is what... READ MORE
FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS REVISITED... Link for todays video. Wednesdays Market Message triggered a number question regarding my decision to base retracements on the decline from May 2008 to March 2009. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with the Fibonacci Retracements Tool based on this decline. Representing the... READ MORE
FINANCIAL RALLY CONTINUES... On Tuesday, I showed the financial sector in the process of turning from a market laggard into a market leader. Chart 1 shows that new financial leadership continuing today. The Financials SPDR (XLF) has now exceeded its mid-November peak at 15.07 to turn its short-term trend... READ MORE
COMMODITY ETF SCORES BIG GAINS... Link for todays video. An array of positive factors boosted commodity related ETFs on Wednesday. Commodities benefited from weakness in the Dollar over the last two weeks and energy-related commodities benefited from the cold weather. In particular, oil surged over 10% in the last two... READ MORE
FINANCIAL LAGGARDS TURN UP ... We normally focus on market groups that have been market leaders. Today, however, I'm going to focus on the sector that has been the market's weakest throughout the fourth quarter. That would be the financials. The reason I'm turning to... READ MORE
BULLS RING IN THE NEW YEAR... Link for todays video. The New Year started the same way the old year ended: bullish. The bulls were out in force early on the first trading day of the year. In early afternoon trading, the broad market indices were all up over 1%... READ MORE
ITEMS TO WATCH IN 2010... Link for todays video. Todays commentary will feature a few items to watch in 2010. First, I am showing a PerfChart with seven different ETFs representing five different asset classes. This is a good way to watch the intermarket picture unfold as well as the... READ MORE
WE'RE IN SANTA TIME ... We're right in the middle of the Santa Claus rally and two-thirds of the way through the strongest period of the year for stocks. According to the Stock Traders Almanac, the Santa Claus rally encompasses the last five trading days of the... READ MORE
BREADTH LINES HIT NEW HIGHS... Link for todays video.The Nasdaq AD Volume Line and the NYSE AD Line hit new 52-week highs on Tuesday. New 52-week highs in these breadth stats are bullish for the market overall. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq AD Volume Line exceeding its Sep-Oct highs... READ MORE
HOMEBUILDER ETF TURNS BACK UP ... Today's report that November existing home sales exceeded expectations is having a bullish on housing stocks. Chart 1 shows the Homebuilders SPDR (XHB) breaking through a three-month down trendline. The ability of the XHB to stay above its 2009 up trendline is another... READ MORE
RECORD YIELD CURVE ... Today's stock buying is coming at the expense of Treasury bonds. Chart 1 shows the T-Bond ETF (TLT) tumbling to the lowest level since August. Chart 2 shows the 10-Year T-Note Yield closing at the highest level since August. [The two charts are a mirror... READ MORE
UPTREND IS STILL INTACT ... A Friday stock bounce kept major stock indexes stuck in a two-month trading range. Prices also remain above their 50-day averages which keeps the intermediate uptrend intact. Prices, however, remain below long-term resistance barriers near 10,500 in the Dow, 1120 in the S&P... READ MORE
FINANCE SECTOR TESTS SUPPORT... Link for todays video. The Financials SPDR (XLF) remains relatively weak over the last few months and the ETF is testing range support with a move lower today. Chart 1 shows XLF breaking below the triangle trendline and then stalling around 14.25 the previous seven... READ MORE
BOLLINGER BANDS CONTRACT ON THE DOW... Link for todays video. The Fed met expectations by leaving rates and policy unchanged on Wednesday. In its policy statement, the FOMC made note of the usual suspects. While the Fed was positive on parts of the economy, continued weakness in the labor market... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX BOUNCES OFF 2008 LOW ... The rebound in the dollar that started a couple of weeks ago is continuing. And the rally is coming off a prominent support level. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) bouncing off its early 2008 low near 22. Bounces off support... READ MORE
DEFENSIVE ROTATION ... Although the stock market remains stuck in a short-term trading range, a more cautious tone has been revealed by sector rotations beneath the surface. Over the last month, for example, the two top market sectors have been utitilities and healthcare which are traditionally defensive groups. The two weakest... READ MORE
DECEMBER STARTS A LITTLE DIFFERENT... Link for todays video. December is shaping up a little different than the rest of the year. Chart 1 shows an Intermarket Perfchart from early March to the end of November. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is by far the best performer over... READ MORE
DOW FIRMS AT CONSOLIDATION SUPPORT... Since first moving above 10400 on November 16th, the Dow has been in consolidation mode. Chart 1 shows the senior Average crisscrossing the 10400 level at least six times in the last 17 trading days. Basically, we have a consolidation within an uptrend. With higher... READ MORE
DOLLAR RALLY PUSHES FOREIGN CURRENCIES BELOW 50-DAY LINES... Last Friday's jump in the U.S. Dollar (following a strong jobs report) pushed the Euro below its 50-day moving average. When a support line that has contained pullbacks for eight months is broken, that signals a change in a... READ MORE
BARRON'S ARTICLE GIVES BOTH GROUPS A BOOST... I've written a couple of articles over the last two weeks about the recent move into dividend paying stocks like telecom and utilities. A weekend Barron's article (Even Better Than Bonds) wrote about how relatively low bond... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS AND DOLLAR BOUNCE... Sometimes good news produces a bad effect. That's especially true when dealing with financial markets. Today's unemployment report dropped to 10% and payrolls fell by an unusually small amount. That good news was given a positive reception by most markets. By... READ MORE
RELATIVE WEAKNESS FINANCE WEIGHS... Link for todays video. Even though the major indices and sectors remain in uptrends overall, there are a few key areas of weakness that merit attention. First and foremost, the Financials SPDR (XLF) remains a drag on the overall market. Even with strength in Bank of... READ MORE
ENERGY CONTINUES TO LAG THE S&P 500... Note: There will be another posting with a video later today. November was not a good month for the Energy SPDR (XLE). Chart 1 shows the Sector SPDR Perfchart with the absolute performance for the nine sectors and the S&... READ MORE
DOW STALLS NEAR TOP OF CHANNEL... Link for todays video. The Dow Industrials stalled as the market traded with indecision on Wednesday. Chart 1 shows a clear uptrend over the last several months. A series of higher highs and higher lows formed since August. With this zigzag higher we can... READ MORE
GLOBAL PULLBACK FINDS SUPPORT AT 50-DAY LINES... As fears about Dubai reside, global stocks have regained their upside momentum. All three U.S. stock indexes found support at or above their rising 50-day moving averages as shown in the first three charts. That has removed any immediate threat to the... READ MORE