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CELGENE UPGRADE SPARKS BIOTECH BUYING -- AMGEN AND GILEAD HAVE PROMISING CHART PATTERNS -- ALEXION, ILLUMINA, AND VERTEX ARE IN CHART UPTRENDS -- SOME DEFENSIVE MONEY MAY BE MOVING TO HEALTCHARE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BIOTECHS ETFS HAVE STRONG DAY... On a day when most stocks and commodities pulled back a bit and the dollar bounced, healthchare was the day's top performing group. Biotechs were the main reason why. Charts 1 and 2 show Biotech iShares (IBB) and Biotech Holders (BBH) nearing the...   READ MORE 

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FALLING DOLLAR FAVORS FOREIGN SHARES -- IT ALSO FAVORS FOREIGN ETFS OVER UNDERLYING STOCKS -- NEXT UPSIDE TARGET FOR S&P 500 IS 1120 -- NATURAL GAS IS FIDELITY'S TOP SECTOR FUND FOR THE WEEK -- GOLD NEARS TESTS OF MARCH 2008 INTRA-DAY AT $1033

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FALLING DOLLAR FAVORS FOREIGN STOCKS... Arthur Hill reviewed some standard intermarket relationships on Thursday. One of the best known is the inverse relationship between the U.S. Dollar and commodity prices. That's why a falling dollar has had a bullish impact on commodity prices since the spring. The...   READ MORE 

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DOW THEORY SIGNAL AFFIRMED - AIRLINES POWER DOW TRANSPORTS - INTERMARKET CORRELATIONS BLUR - COMMODITIES ARE NEGATIVELY CORRELATED WITH BONDS - DBC BREAKS CHANNEL RESISTANCE - TLT HOLDS BREAKOUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TRANSPORTS AND INDUSTRIALS FORGE HIGHER HIGHS... Video Link (click here). Last week I noted that the Dow Industrials had yet to break its late August highs and that a non-confirmation could be brewing. With the advance over the last five days, chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials easily clearing its...   READ MORE 

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SMALL-CAPS LEAD BROAD ADVANCE - FINANCE SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH - REGIONAL BANKS AND REITS POWER FINANCE - OIL FORMS BULLISH CUP-WITH-HANDLE PATTERN - XLE AND OIH BREAK RESISTANCE - GLD CHALLENGES 2008 HIGH.

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS LEAD BROAD ADVANCE... Video Link (click here) Stocks moved sharply higher on Wednesday with a broad advance. All major index ETFs were up over 1%. All nine sectors were higher with energy and finance leading the way. The technology sector lagged with a relatively small gain on the day....   READ MORE 

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POINT & FIGURE TRENDS FOR MAJOR STOCK INDEXES ARE STILL UP -- NEW BULLISH PERCENT BUY SIGNALS HAVE BEEN GIVEN IN GOLD AND ENERGY -- NEW ENERGY BUYING APPEARS TO BE COMING FROM A REBOUND IN NATURAL GAS -- NATURAL GAS STOCK LEADERS INCLUDE CHK, DVN, AND EP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

POINT & FIGURE TRENDS ARE STILL UP... It's true that the market has recovered more than 50% since March. It's also true that many indicators show overbought readings. The most important indicator of all, however, is the actual trend of prices which is still up. At...   READ MORE 

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SILVER STOCK BREAKOUTS -- PLATINUM BREAKS OUT AND IS BENEFITING FROM STRONGER ECONOMY -- 13 AND 34 EMA LINES ARE STILL POSITIVE FOR THE S&P 500 -- BREAKDOWN IN DOLLAR GIVES BOOST TO GLOBAL STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SILVER STOCKS... Last Friday I showed several gold stocks that had achieved bullish breakouts. One of our readers asked me to show some silver stockss that had achieved bullish breakouts as well. Shown below are the top three in terms of relative strength and strong chart action. Chart 1 shows...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS RALLY AS DOLLAR FALLS - NEXT SUPPORT FOR THE DOLLAR INDEX - SPY EXCEEDS AUGUST HIGHS - BONDS SURGE AND RATES FALL - XLU SHOWS RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN SEPTEMBER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NEGATIVE CORRELLATION FOR STOCKS AND DOLLAR... Link for todays video. The S&P 500 and the US Dollar Index continue to move in opposite directions. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 in red and the US Dollar Index in green. This inverse relationship started to assert itself...   READ MORE 

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DOW FINISHES STRONG - IWM AND QQQQ LEAD - DOW TRANSPORTS BREAKS AUGUST HIGH - RAILS AND AIRLINES LEAD - TRUCKERS LAG - SHORT-TERM DOW THEORY NON-CONFIRMATIONS LURK

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DELAYED POSTING... Wednesday's Market Message was delayed due to a website disruption on Wednesday afternoon. As noted on the status page (click here), we moved back to our old T3 circuits to get back online around 1:30AM. Further developments will be posted on the status page. BEIGE...   READ MORE 

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WEAK DOLLAR GIVES BOOST TO GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES -- RISING CHINESE SHARES HELP STABILIZE GLOBAL MARKETS -- SUMMER RALLY IS STILL INTACT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR DROPS TO YEARLY LOW... The U.S. Dollar has come under heavy selling today. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index (UUP) falling to the lowest level of the year. Although most foreign currencies are rallying, the biggest gain is being seen in the Euro. Chart 2...   READ MORE 

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GOLD AND SILVER HAVE BIG WEEK -- SO DO GOLD STOCKS -- GOLD LEADERS INCLUDE ABX, GG, KGC, AEM, AND IAG -- PRECIOUS METAL ASSETS ARE BACK IN FAVOR

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

GOLD TESTING ALL-TIME HIGH... Last Friday I wrote about the bullish potential in gold and gold shares. That optimism was based on two bullish chart patterns which are shown below. The first is the bullish symmetrical triangle shown in Chart 1 for the Gold Trust ETF (GLD). This week'...   READ MORE 

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DOW STALLS AFTER SHARP DECLINE - BONDS LEAD INTERMARKET PLAYERS - WEAK DOLLAR NOT MUCH HELP FOR OIL - ENERGY SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE WEAKNESS - MACD TURNS NEGATIVE FOR USO

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS EDGE HIGHER... Link for todays video. Stocks edged higher ahead of Fridays employment report and three day weekend. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials gaining around 64 points, which is a relatively small move (+.69%). After a long red candlestick and sharp decline on Tuesday, the Dow stalled with...   READ MORE 

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UPSIDE MOMENTUM WANES FOR SPY - SIGNS OF SELLING PRESSURE ON INTRADAY CHARTS - MCCLELLAN OSCILLATORS SHOW BREADTH DETERIORATION - GOLD SURGES ABOVE TRIANGLE RESISTANCE - GOLD STOCKS OUTPACE GOLD - DOLLAR REMAINS IN DOWNTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS STALL AFTER SHARP DECLINES... Link for todays video. After sharp declines on Monday and Tuesday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY)* stalled just below 100 on Wednesday. Chart 1 shows the ETF closing in the red for its fourth consecutive losing day. SPY has not seen four down...   READ MORE 

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US DOLLAR HAS COMPLETED FIVE-WAVE DECLINE AND IS DUE FOR A BOUNCE WHILE THE EURO LOOKS TOPPY -- THAT FITS INTO A DOWNSIDE CORRECTION IN STOCKS AND COMMODITIES -- SO DOES THE RALLY IN THE YEN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR DUE FOR A RALLY ... On August 17, I wrote a message showing that the CRB Index had completed a five-wave advance and was due a correction (which appears to have started). The following day I did a similar analysis showing that the U.S. Dollar had completed a five-wave...   READ MORE 

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OVERBOUGHT FINANCIALS LEAD MARKET LOWER --AIG, CITIGROUP, AND BANK OF AMERICA ARE BIG LOSERS -- VIX BREAKS OUT TO UPSIDE AS STOCKS FALL -- TREASURIES, THE YEN, AND THE DOLLAR ARE ATTRACTING SAFE HAVEN MONEY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIALS DROP 4%... I recently wrote about the negative warning from the market's loss of leadership in the technology sector. Today, the negative warning is coming from financials. And it's coming at a bad time for the financials the rest of the market. The Financials Sector...   READ MORE 

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BIG DROP IN CHINESE SHARES CAUSES SELLING IN GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES -- COPPER AND OIL (AND THEIR RELATED STOCKS) ARE HIT THE HARDEST -- SAFE HAVEN MONEY IS MOVING INTO THE YEN AND TREASURIES -- OVERBOUGHT STOCKS ARE STARTING TO SLIP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SHANGHAI INDEX HAS LOST 23% DURING AUGUST ... I had been surprised at how little attention was being paid to the big drop in Chinese shares since the start of August. That's why I warned on Friday that the big drop in Shanghai could cause profit-taking in global stock...   READ MORE 

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TREASURY RALLY HINTS AT STOCK PULLBACK -- SO DOES 20% AUGUST DROP IN SHANGHAI INDEX -- GOLD IS CONSOLIDATING IN BULLISH SYMMETRICAL PATTERN -- GOLD SHARES ALSO LOOK PROMISING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS AND BOND YIELDS MOVE TOGETHER... Last week (August 18) I wrote about one of the side-effects of a deflationary environment being the positive correlation between stock prices and Treasury bond yields. In other words, Treasury yields and stock prices trend in the same direction. Chart 1, for example, shows...   READ MORE 

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POINT & FIGURE CHARTS ARE HELPFUL IN GIVING PRECISE BUY AND SELL SIGNALS -- USING BAR CHARTS TO SPOT SHORT-TERM SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

P&F SIGNALS ARE MORE PRECISE ... Once in a while, I like to review the merits of point & figure charting which can be used as an adjunct to other charting methods. As I've pointed out before, one of the most compelling virtues of p&f...   READ MORE 

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HOUSING BREAKOUT CONTINUES TO BUILD ON IMPROVING FUNDAMENTALS -- LENNAR AND NVR ARE GROUP LEADERS -- OTHER PROMISING HOMEBUILDING CHARTS BELONG TO DHI, MDC, PHM AND TOLL BROTHERS -- MARKET EXTENDS SUMMER RALLY BUT IS ON SHAKY TECHNICAL GROUND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MORE GOOD HOUSING NEWS BOOSTS HOMEBUILDERS... Each passing week brings more encouraging news on housing. Today's second quarter news shows home prices in the U.S. jumping for the first time in three years. As is usually the case, that good news has been anticipated by stocks tied...   READ MORE 

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STRONG HOUSING NUMBERS BOOST HOMEBUILDERS AND REITS WHICH ARE IN NEW UPTRENDS -- THAT HELPS EXTEND MARKET RALLY -- SUPPORT LEVELS TO WATCH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HOMEBUILDERS AND REITS ARE IN NEW UPTRENDS ... During the last week of July, I wrote a couple of bullish stories on housing related stocks. I also pointed out that their strong price action was a leading indication of better fundamentals to come in housing. Today's report that July...   READ MORE 

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BULLISH PERCENT NUMBERS ARE OVERBOUGHT BUT STILL IN P&F UPTRENDS -- ONLY THE NASDAQ 100 AND MATERIAL SECTOR ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKNESS -- BULLISH PERCENT FOR GOLD GROUP IS NEUTRAL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NYSE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX STILL IN UPTREND... Earlier in the week, I wrote about overbought readings in the Bullish Percent Indexes for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq market. Today I'm showing the point & figure version of those two indexes. That's fitting since...   READ MORE 

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COMMODITIES APPEAR TO HAVE COMPLETED A FIFTH WAVE ADVANCE WHICH MAKES A CORRECTION LIKELY -- CHINA AND COPPER HAVE RALLIED TOO FAR -- OIL LOSES UPSIDE MOMENTUM -- GOLD MAY BENEFIT FROM A CORRECTION IN STOCKS AND COMMODITIES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CRB TRACKS THE EURO... Yesterday's message expressed the view that stocks and commodities appeared ripe for a downside correction. Both of those markets have been rising together since March. At the same time, the dollar has been dropping. I also showed that the Dollar Index appeared to have...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 AND NASDAQ 100 STALL AT MAJOR RESISTANCE LEVELS -- SEVERAL MARKET MEASURES SHOW VERY OVERBOUGHT MARKET -- DEFENSIVE MONEY MOVES INTO HEALTHCARE -- USING AN ETN TO BUY VOLATILITY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

OVERBOUGHT S&P 500 BACKS DOWN FROM 1000 BARRIER ... The week before leaving on vacation (July 28 to be exact) I wrote a market message warning that both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 had reached important overhead resistance barriers and were in overbought territory. I...   READ MORE 

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GLOBAL STOCK AND COMMODITY CORRECTION MAY BE STARTING AS DEFENSIVE MONEY FLOWS BACK INTO THE DOLLAR AND TREASURY BONDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCK DROP STARTS IN ASIA... A 5% drop in China's Shanghai Stock Index started a global selling spree that has spread to the U.S. Chart 1 shows China iShares (FXI) gapping down 4.4% and undercutting its 50-day average. Chart 2 shows EAFE iShares (EFA) falling more...   READ MORE 

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FINANCE SECTOR BACK TO PROMINENCE - XLF HOLDS ITS BREAKOUTS - BULLISH% FOR XLK STAYS STRONG - MARKING SUPPORTS FOR XLY - XLK STALLS FOR 3 WEEKS - BULLISH% FOR XLK IS OVERBOUGHT - RANKING BULLISH% INDICES - REVISITING ELLIOTT WAVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIALS GAIN SOME WEIGHT... Link for todays video. After more than doubling since March, the Financials SPDR (XLF) is now the second biggest sector in the S&P 500. This was surely not the case in March when XLF was trading around 6. The finance was already an important...   READ MORE 

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FED TO END BOND PURCHASE PROGRAM - BONDS REMAIN RANGE BOUND - TECHS AND SMALL-CAPS LEAD STOCKS HIGHER - SETTING SHORT-TERM SUPPORT - ALL SECTORS PARTAKING IN BULL RUN - PROGRAMMING NOTE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED... Link for todays video. With signs the economy is stabilizing, the FOMC voted to keep interest rates unchanged. This means the Fed Funds target rate remains 0-.25%. Moreover, the Fed suggested that rates could stay low for an extended period of time. The Fed also...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 STALLS AT 1000 - ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS - S&P 500 RETURNS TO FALLING CHANNEL - US DOLLAR INDEX RECOVERS AFTER SUPPORT BREAK - GOLD REACTS TO SURGING DOLLAR

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS CONTINUE AUGUST STALL... Link for todays video. Stocks moved lower as the Fed began its two day meeting on Tuesday. The FOMC is expected to make its policy statement on Wednesday at 2:15PM, which means we may see some fireworks the next two days. The S&P...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 13-WEEK EMA CROSSES ABOVE 34-WEEK EMA - REVIEWING 13-34 CROSSOVER - ADDING MOMENTUM WITH THE PERCENTAGE PRICE OSCILLATOR - INCREASING SIGNALS WITH DAILY CHARTS - GOLD FORMS LARGE TRIANGLE - DOLLAR REMAINS OVERSOLD

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

13-34 CROSSOVER FOR SPX... Link for todays video. A few readers inquired about the recent crossover in 13-week and 34-week exponential moving averages. John Murphy is the 13-34 specialist, but I can provide some insights until he returns. As the S&P 500 now stands (Thursday), the 13-week EMA...   READ MORE 

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VOLATILITY CONTRACTS FOR QQQQ - RIG AND BHI LEAD OIL SERVICE HOLDRS LOWER - OIL FIRMS AS DOLLAR SOFTENS - POUND ETF BREAKS RESISTANCE - YEN ETF FIRMS AT SUPPORT - BONDS WILT AS SUPPLY ISSUES HIT HOME

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

VOLATILITY CONTRACTS FOR QQQQ... Link for todays video. After a surge in mid July, the advance has slowed over the last two weeks and volatility has contracted. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) surging above 39 on July 23th and working its way towards 40 the last two...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS TURN MIXED - SMALL-CAPS AND MID-CAPS LEAD MARKET - TECHS START TO LAG - FINANCIALS SPDR BREAKS MAY HIGH - REGIONAL BANK SPDR MAKES IT 10 STRAIGHT - REIT ETF POWER PAST JUNE HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARKET TURNS MIXED... Link for todays video. Stocks turned mixed on Tuesday. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and S&P 400 MidCap Index (MDY) spent most of the day in positive territory, but the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) spent most of the day in negative territory. In the middle,...   READ MORE 

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ITB GIVES PURER HOMEBUILDING PLAY THAN XHB -- HOUSING STOCKS TELL US SOMETHING ABOUT THE HOUSING INDUSTRY -- SECOND EDITION OF THE VISUAL INVESTOR MAKES FOR GOOD SUMMER READING -- TWO WEEK HIATUS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ITB VERSUS XHB... On Monday, I wrote a bullish message on the homebuilding group and suggested using the SPDR S&P Homebuilding ETF (XHB) as one way to participate in the housing recovery. I pointed out, however, that the XHB has a relatively heavy weighting in a lot of...   READ MORE 

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SPY TRACES OUT POSSIBLE BROADENING FORMATION - BONDS CLOSE STRONG - CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR CONTINUES TO LEAD - FINANCE SECTOR SPDR HOLDS BREAKOUT - SCHWAB AND MORGAN STANLEY SURGE - REGIONAL BANK ETF BREAKS RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN... Link for todays video. The major index ETFs have remained overbought for two weeks now. Charts 1, 2 and 3 show the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) with the Commodity Channel Index (CCI). John Murphy and I...   READ MORE 

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INTERMARKET TURMOIL COULD AFFECT STOCKS - DOLLAR FINDS SUPPORT - STRONG DOLLAR HITS GOLD - OIL DECLINES FROM KEY RETRACEMENT - BONDS BOUNCE OFF KEY RETRACEMENT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

INTERMARKET CHANGES COULD BE BEARISH FOR STOCKS ... Link for todays video. There has been a noticeable shift in the intermarket arena over the last few days. First, lets back up and look at intermarket relationships during the July rally. The S&P 500 bottomed the second week of July...   READ MORE 

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THE S&P 500 IS WITHIN 2% OF 1000 RESISTANCE BARRIER AT NOVEMBER HIGH AND IN A SHORT-TERM OVERBOUGHT CONDITION --SO IS THE QQQQ WHICH HAS LED THE RALLY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 NEARS 1000 RESISTANCE BARRIER ... I wrote recently that an upside breakout in the S&P 500 could push it back to the high of last November near 1000. It is now trading within 20 points (or 2%) of that potential resistance barrier. There's...   READ MORE 

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STRONG HOUSING DATA BOOSTS HOMEBUILDERS WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE BOTTOMED -- SOME HOMEBUILDING LEADERS -- TRADING THE XHB FOR A HOUSING-RELATED RECOVERY THAT INCLUDES MORE THAN HOMEBUILDERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HOMEBUILDERS RALLY... New home sales in the U.S. climbed 11% last month which is the biggest gain in eight years. Following that report, homebuilding stocks are trading higher. Judging from today's first chart, however, it appears that the market has been anticipating that good news for months....   READ MORE 

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BIG DROP IN MICROSOFT CAUSES NERVOUS SELLING IN NASDAQ MARKET -- RSI LINE FOR THE NASDAQ 100 IS OVERBOUGHT FOR FIRST TIME SINCE SPRING BOTTOM -- THE QQQQ HAS RETRACED HALF OF ITS BEAR TREND AND IS NEARING OVERHEAD RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MICROSOFT FALLS NEARLY 10% ON BIG VOLUME ... A nearly 10% drop in Microsoft is causing some profit-taking in the market today. Because of its huge size, Microsoft carries a lot of weight in the Nasdaq market which is leading today's profit-taking. Chart 1 shows MSFT gapping down nearly...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 CLEARS JUNE HIGH - SMALL-CAPS AND FINANCIALS LEAD - HEALTHCARE SPDR BREAKS FEBRUARY HIGH - DOW THEORY SIGNAL - DOLLAR HITS LONG-TERM SUPPORT - OIL FOLLOWS STOCKS - GOLD STALLS AFTER GAP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS EXTEND GAINS WITH BROAD ADVANCE ... Link for todays video. Favorable reactions to earnings reports continued to propel stocks higher. The major indices were all sharply higher on Thursday with small-caps leading the way higher. It is positive to see small-caps showing relative strength. All sectors were also sharply higher...   READ MORE 

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JUNE HIGHS MARK RESISTANCE FOR SPY - XLY BECOMES OVERBOUGHT - A SECOND CHANCE HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS - SMALL-CAPS LAG - TECHS LEAD - FINANCE STARTS TO LAG - REGIONAL BANKS CONTINUE TO LAG

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RESISTANCE LEVELS STILL IN PLAY... Link for todays video. Despite new reaction highs from a number technology related ETFs, other key ETFs have yet to exceed their June highs and some are meeting resistance from the June highs. Basically, ETFs trading above their June highs show relative strength, while ETFs...   READ MORE 

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THE 1930S AND 1970S SHOW EARLIER EXAMPLES OF SECULAR BEAR TRENDS -- WHILE THE 1930S SAW BIGGER LOSSES, THE 1970S WERE FLAT -- THE TREND SINCE 2000 SHOWS A NINE-YEAR SECULAR BEAR MARKET

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STUDY OF EARLIER SECULAR BEARS... Last Friday, I wrote that any bull market at the current time would most likely be "cyclical" as opposed to "secular". I'd like to elaborate on that distinction. Secular trends are very long term in nature and can last...   READ MORE 

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STEEPER YIELD CURVE CAUSED BY RISING BOND YIELDS IS A GOOD SIGN FOR STOCKS AND THE ECONOMY -- BOND YIELDS AND STOCKS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOGETHER FOR THE LAST DECADE -- MONEY COMING OUT OF TREASURIES IS MOVING INTO STOCKS AND CORPORATE BONDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TREASURY YIELDS HAVE BOTTOMED ... The stock market is a leading indicator of the economy. Historically, stocks usually bottom about six months before the economy. With a stock bottom having formed in March, that leaves a time target for an economic bottom by September. Rising stock prices are one of the...   READ MORE 

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STOCK RALLY RULES OUT HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP -- FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS COMMODITIES -- CHINA LEADS EMERGING MARKET ETFS -- THAT'S HELPING COPPER AND STEEL STOCKS -- CYCLICAL BULL MARKETS IN A SECULAR DOWNTREND CAN RALLY 50%

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS TURN HIGHER ... It looks like you can throw out most of what I wrote last Friday. I was expecting a deeper market correction after most market indexes broke short-term head and shoulder "necklines" (and daily EMA lines turned negative). I also wrote about the possible threat from...   READ MORE