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TREASURY PLAN TO BUY BANK TOXIC ASSETS SENDS STOCKS HIGHER -- FINANCIALS AND HOMEBUILDERS LEAD RALLY -- ENERGY HAS STRONG DAY ON RISING COMMODITIES-- CHINA CONTINUES TO SHOW LEADERSHIP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCIALS LEAD MARKET HIGHER... In a repeat of how we started last week, financials are the leading a strong market rally today. The main catalyst is the Treasury's announcement of a one trillion public-private plan to buy banks' toxic assets. A jump in February existing home sales...
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WEEK'S BIG WINNERS WERE GOLD AND TIPS AS INVESTORS BUY INFLATION HEDGES -- OIL SERVICE AND SEMICONDUCTOR INDEXES BACK OFF FROM 2009 HIGHS -- S&P 500 PULLS BACK FROM 800 LEAVING ROOM FOR ONE MORE DIP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD STOCKS TOP 200-DAY AVERAGE... The Fed's midweek surprise announcement that it was buying Treasury bonds had a fairly predictable ripple effect through the various financial markets. Naturally, Treasury bond prices jumped and yields collapsed. The big drop in bond yields pushed the dollar sharply lower and commodities...
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FINANCIALS TAKE A BREATHER BEARISH CANDLESTICKS FOR GOLDMAN, MORGAN STANLEY AND JP MORGAN CHASE MATERIALS AND ENERGY FOLLOW COMMODITIES HIGHER ALCAO SURGES ON BIG VOLUME
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCIALS PULLBACK FROM OVERBOUGHT LEVELS... A day after the big Fed announcement, financial stocks declined from overbought levels. As noted yesterday, the Financials SPDR (XLF) and Regional Bank HOLDRS (RKH) were up substantially over the last two weeks. Charts 1 and 2 show both exceeding their 50-day moving averages and...
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DOLLAR BEARISH ETF SURGES ON BIG VOLUME OIL BREAKS TRIANGLE RESISTANCE AGRICULTURE ETF BREAKS CHANNEL RESISTANCE NATURAL GAS ETF GETS OVERSOLD BOUNCE SILVER ETF BREAKS WEDGE RESISTANCE BASE METALS ETF CHALLENGES RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOLLAR CONTINUES TO FALL... In a continuation from yesterday's breakdown, the US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) extended its fall in early trading on Thursday. Chart 1 shows the ETF down over 1% with move below 25. The bottom indicator window shows UUP with the S&P 500...
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STOCKS RALLY AFTER FED STATEMENT FINANCIALS LEAD HIGHER HHH AND SMH HIT RESISTANCE BONDS SURGE AS RATES PLUNGE DOLLAR PLUNGES IN RESPONSE TO FED GOLD REVERSES TO CLOSE STRONG BONDS SURGE ON BOND PURCHASE PLAN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FED STATEMENT STOKES THE BULLS... Stocks surged after the Fed announced plans to buy long-term Treasury bonds and increase its purchases of mortgage-backed securities. With today's announcement, the Fed is set to expand its balance sheet by over $1 trillion. With the money spigot open, the S&...
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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS SHOW LEADERSHIP --HOME DEPOT AND RETAILERS HAVE STRONG DAY -- HOMEBUILDERS SHOW FIRST OF STABILIZATION IN NEARLY FOUR YEARS -- SEMIS AND OIL SERVICE STOCKS ALSO LEAD RALLY -- S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF 800 BARRIER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ANOTHER GLIMMER OF HOPE... Over the last week, we've been writing about a stronger tone in financial stocks and the positive impact that's having on the rest of the market. Today, we're seeing another glimmer of hope in a rebounding consumer discretionary sector which...
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FINANCIALS LEAD OVERSOLD MARKET HIGHER -- OTHER POSITIVES INCLUDE A PULLBACK IN THE DOLLAR, BONDS, AND GOLD AND BOUNCE IN COPPER AND OIL -- CHINA SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
AIG IS TODAY'S FINANCIAL LEADER... Most of today's headline is a repeat of the one I posted at midday last Tuesday just as the current market bounce was starting. I'm posting it again today to show that all of those positive forces are still...
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WHICH ELLIOTT FIFTH WAVE IS BEING COMPLETED? -- DOW THEORY OVERLAPS WITH ELLIOTT WAVE -- THE DOW HAS COMPLETED A MAJOR DOWNSIDE TARGET -- WEEKLY RSI SHOWS BULLISH DIVERGENCE -- STOCKS MAY NEED ONE MORE DIP TO COMPLETE BOTTOM
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WHICH FIFTH WAVE IS THE MARKET COMPLETING?... On Tuesday, I offered my view of the current Elliott Wave structure. I suggested that the last leg down starting in January appeared close to completing the entire Wave 3 that started last May. That would pave the way for a Wave 4...
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MARCH MADNESS HITS WALL STREET - KEY SECTORS LEAD ADVANCE SPX VOLUME REMAINS HIGH VIX BREAKS FEBRUARY LOW OIL BECOMES OVERBOUGHT FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL-CAPS AND MID-CAPS LEAD ... For the second time in three days, stocks surged with a broad advance on good volume. All sectors were up and almost all industry groups were higher. Small-caps led the way as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained over 6%. Mid-caps were a distant second with...
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GOLD BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT SWISS FRANC WEIGHS ON EURO WEAK EURO BOOSTS GOLD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD GETS ANOTHER OVERSOLD BOUNCE... For the second time in as many weeks, the Gold SPDR (GLD) is bouncing off support after becoming oversold. Last week I showed GLD as 3-period RSI became oversold. This bounce did not hold as gold returned to support early this week. Once again, GLD...
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EURO BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT BOND ETF REMAINS RANGE BOUND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EURO EXTENDS ITS BOUNCE... Continued strength in stocks pushed the euro higher again on Wednesday. As John Murphy suggested on Tuesday, the dollar was part of the flight-to-safety trade. Conversely, the euro suffered in a risk-averse environment. With a big surge in stocks on Tuesday, risk-aversion took a back seat...
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BREADTH SURGES ON BIG MOVE - SPX VOLUME VALIDATES SURGE - NDX VOLUME IS UNIMPRESSIVE - BEAR MARKET RALLIES CAN BE SHARP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BREADTH SURGES ON NASDAQ AND NYSE ... Market breadth provides a means to measure the degree of participation in a market move. After big moves, breadth and volume are my first ports of call to judge the robustness of a move especially an advance. Advances with strong breadth and high volume...
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S&P 500 COMES CLOSE TO 62% FIBONACCI TARGET NEAR 660 -- ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS BEAR MARKET IS CLOSE TO COMPLETING WAVE 3 WHICH STARTED LAST MAY -- THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A WAVE FOUR BOUNCE AND ONE MORE DOWNWAVE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 COMES VERY CLOSE TO 62% RETRACEMENT ... Some of our readers have asked me to revisit potential downside targets for the market. Chart 1 is an updated version of a chart I showed on February 27. That earlier chart showed that a 62% retracement of the secular...
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CITIGROUP AND FINANCIALS LEAD OVERSOLD MARKET HIGHER -- OTHER POSITIVES INCLUDE A PULLBACK IN THE DOLLAR, BONDS, AND GOLD AND A BOUNCE IN COPPER AND OIL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CITIGROUP LEADS FINANCIALS HIGHER... News that Citigroup is having a good quarter has pushed that stock sharply higher today and helped spark a global stock rebound. The daily bars in Chart 1 show Citigroup gapping 34% higher (and on rising volume). The 14-day RSI (solid line) is rebounding from an...
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DOW THEORY STILL IN DOWNTREND -- RAILS ARE TIED TO TREND OF COMMODITIES WHICH IS DOWN -- WE CAN'T REFLATE WITH A RISING DOLLAR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW THEORY STILL IN DOWNTREND... At the start of the 20th century, Charles Dow invented the Dow Theory. It was a simple idea. He created two stock indexes -- one for industrial stocks and one for the transports (which were exclusively rails). His reasoning was that both indexes should rise...
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STOCKS FALL SHARPLY - FLIGHT TO SAFETY TRADE RESUMES -- BONDS GAP HIGHER - VOLUME SURGES ON NYSE AS PRICE DECLINE ACCELLERATES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS FALL IN BROAD DECLINE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
It was a sea of red on Wall Street. All nine sectors were lower with financials leading the way. Just when you thought they could not go any lower, chart 1 shows the...
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EURO FALLS AFTER RATE CUT -- GOLD HITS SUPPORT ZONE -- TOP 10 DOW COMPONENTS - BIG BLUE BREAKS WEDGE SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EURO FALLS AFTER ECB DECISION... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) cuts its key rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 1.5%. Even though their key rate is at its lowest level ever, analysts expect further...
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STOCKS GET OVERSOLD BOUNCE -- ENERGY AND MATERIALS LEAD THE WAY -- OIL AND BASE METALS JUMP OVER 8%
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS STAGE BROAD ADVANCE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
The stock market staged a broad advance on Wednesday with eight of nine sectors moving higher. While this advance looks impressive by itself, it needs to be considered in the context of the prior...
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STRANGE BEHAVIOR IN THE VIX -- VOLATILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH -- PUT/CALL RATIO STAYS SUBDUED -- SMOOTHING A PRICE SERIES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
VIX LAGS THE S&P 500 ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) measures the implied volatility for a basket of S&P 500 options, both puts and calls. John Murphy pointed out a rising...
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FOREIGN STOCK CASH INDEXES (EXCEPT JAPAN) ARE STILL ABOVE THEIR 2002 LOWS -- THAT'S BECAUSE THEY HAD FURTHER TO FALL THAN THE U.S. -- THE U.S. DOLLAR IS RISING BECAUSE FOREIGN CURRENCIES ARE FALLING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GLOBAL BENCHMARKS... A couple of readers ask where foreign stock markets were in relation to their 2002 lows. And they wanted to see the charts of the actual cash markets instead of Exchange Traded Funds. Charts 1 through 5 show five major foreign stock benchmarks through yesterday's close....
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THE ONLY STOCK FUNDS GOING UP ARE BEAR FUNDS -- THE VIX IS ALSO RISING -- THE DOLLAR CONTINUES TO RISE ON SAFE HAVEN BUYING -- RUSSELL 2000 SMALL CAP INDEX BREAKS NOVEMBER LOW -- THE NASDAQ MAY BE NEXT -- TREASURY BONDS BOUNCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
INVERSE ETFS ARE RISING ... Rather than showing you pictures of falling stock indexes, I'm going to show you charts of stock indexes that are rising. That would of course be inverse (or bear) ETFs. These inverse funds are designed to trade in the opposite direction of their respective...
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GLOBAL STOCKS UNDERCUT NOVEMBER LOWS -- MORE 2002 LOWS ARE BEING THREATENED -- BONDS AND THE DOLLAR ARE ONLY WINNERS -- COMMODIITES REMAIN WEAK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NOWHERE TO HIDE... Another massive loss by AIG and problems at HSBC, which is Europe's biggest bank, have helped send global stocks sharply lower today. The heavy selling started in Asia before spreading to Europe and the U.S. The Dow and S&P 500 broke their...
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WEAK ECONOMIC NUMBERS PUSH MARKET BACK NEAR 2002 LOWS -- DOWNSIDE TARGETS FOR THE DOW AND S&P IF THOSE LOWS ARE BROKEN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEAK ECONOMIC NUMBERS PUSH STOCKS LOWER... The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 closed at the lowest level in twelve years on Monday. I cautioned, however, that the most important close of the week would take place on Friday. That's because today is the last trading...
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WEAKNESS SPREADS TO OTHER SECTORS - HEALTHCARE SPDR BREAKS JANUARY LOW -- TECH SPDR BATTLES SUPPORT -- ENERGY SPDR TESTS 2008 LOWS -- UTILITIES SPDR BREAKS NOVEMBER LOW
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SECTOR LEADERS SUCCUMB TO THE BEAR... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
There are not many places to hide in this market. Richard Russell, of Dow Theory Letters, used to say: "In a bear market, everyone loses, and the winner is the one...
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BONDS COME UNDER PRESSURE -- INTEREST RATES RISE -- SHORT-TERM RATES REFLECT UNCERTAINTY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BONDS MOVER LOWER ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Bonds are coming under pressure from the prospect of increasing supply. The bailouts and stimulus package will require the government to raise large amounts of money through bond auctions (sales). Today, the government is set...
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QQQQ RALLIES BACK -- YEN ETF CONFIRMS DOUBLE TOP -- NIKKEI TESTS OCTOBER LOW -- OIL SURGES FROM OVERSOLD LEVELS -- XLE AND OIH FAIL TO FOLLOW OIL HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS RECOVER FROM LOWS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Stocks dipped sharply lower in early trading, but staged a tech-led comeback in the afternoon. Nothing has changed on the daily charts, but I did notice a couple of interesting patterns on the intraday...
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UPSIDE VOLUME FAILS TO IMPRESS -- SPY REMAINS WITH SUPPORT BREAK -- QQQQ HOLDS DOWN GAP -- IWM AND DIA FORM HARAMI
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPY TESTS NOVEMBER LOW... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
The stock market surged on Tuesday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) both gaining over 3.5%. This is an impressive gain when viewed as a single...
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GOLD IS BACKING OFF FROM 1,000 AS GOLD STOCKS FALL BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE -- GOLD GIVES FIRST SHORT-TERM SELL SIGNAL IN MORE THAN A MONTH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD STOCKS BACK BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE... Gold stocks are coming under new selling pressure. Chart 1 shows the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) trading back below its 200-day moving average today. Part of that selling is coming from the two biggest gold stocks. Chart 2 shows Barrick Gold tumbling...
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DOW AND S&P 500 CLOSE BELOW 2002 BOTTOM -- TREASURY BONDS BOUNCE ALONG WITH THE DOLLAR -- GOLD HOLDS FIRM -- A RISING VIX IS ANOTHER WARNING SIGNAL FOR STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
2002 LOWS UNDER PRESSURE ... Price declines in excess of 3% pushed the Dow and S&P 500 to the lowest closing price in twelve years. The monthly bars in Charts 1 and 2 show those two indexes closing under the previous bear market low formed in the fourth quarter...
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A LOT OF MARKETS ARE AT CRITICAL CHART JUNCTURES -- GOLD REACHES $1,000 TARGET WHILE DOLLAR PULLS BACK FROM ITS NOVEMBER HIGH -- MAJOR MARKET INDEXES ARE TESTING THEIR NOVEMBER LOW AND THEIR 2002 BOTTOM
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD TOUCHES $1000 FOR FIRST TIME IN A YEAR... A number of financial markets are testing important chart points. Let's start with gold. Bullion touched $1,000 today for the first time since last March. Chart 1 shows the streetTracks Gold Trust (GLD) very close to touching its...
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DOW BREAKS NOVEMBER LOW -- FINANCIALS LEAD LOWER -- SHAREHOLDERS BAILOUT OF CITIGROUP -- GE TRADES LIKE A BIG BANK -- DOW STOCKS UNDER $10 -- MACD TURNS BEARISH FOR THE NASDAQ -- EUROSTOXX ETF TESTS SUPPORT ZONE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW CLOSES BELOW NOVEMBER LOW... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
As noted yesterday, a close below 7552.29 in the Dow Industrials would confirm a Dow Theory sell signal. The Dow Transports already did its part with a close below the November (closing)...
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DOW INDUSTRIALS TESTS NOVEMBER LOW -- DOW TRANSPORTS BREAKS NOVEMBER LOW -- MARKET BREADTH DETERIORATES -- VIX AND VXN BREAK ABOVE 50-DAY LINES -- A NEW VOLATILITY BASED ETN -- MOSAIC AND POTASH FORM RISING WEDGES -- MONSANTO TESTS SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW THEORY REMAINS BEARISH... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Dow Theory remains on a sell signal as the Dow Transports broke below its late November low. Before moving on to the charts, let's review some Dow Theory basics. A Dow Theory...
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PLAYING DEFENSE WITH THE SECTOR ROTATION MODEL -- THE NEW GOLD STANDARD -- FINANCIAL SPDR HITS NEW LOW AND LEADS MARKET LOWER -- S&P HITS THREE-MONTH LOW -- BONDS BOUNCE AS STOCKS WEAKEN -- GOLD AND SILVER SURGE -- WATCH MY BLOOMBERG INTERVIEW HERE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SECTOR ROTATION MODEL ... One of our readers asked for more information on the Sector Rotation Model shown below. [This version can be found under the AMEX SPDRs part of the Performance Charts]. The model shows which sectors tend to lead at various stages of the business cycle. In my new...
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GLOBAL STOCKS WEAKEN -- THE DOW AND S&P 500 REACH LOWEST LEVELS SINCE NOVEMBER -- GOLD AND THE DOLLAR JUMP SHARPLY AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES TUMBLE -- BONDS RISE AS STOCKS FALL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS FALL SHARPLY... Stocks are falling sharply all over the world. Most foreign markets fell on Monday when our markets were closed and continued their fall today. Our market is just following along. On Friday, I showed a point & figure chart of the S&P 500 on a...
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LOW PUT/CALL RATIO IS A POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE SIGN FOR THE STOCK MARKET -- POINT & FIGURE CHARTS OF THE MAJOR MARKET INDEXES -- THE SECOND EDITION OF THE VISUAL INVESTOR IS MY NEWEST AND MY FAVORITE BOOK -- I'LL BE ON BLOOMBERG TONIGHT AT 5:10 NYT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LOW PUT-CALL RATIO IS NEGATIVE SIGN ... One of things that worries me about the current market is the unusually low reading in the CBOE Put/Call Ratio (CPC). The red line in Chart 1 is a 5-day moving average of the CPC which smooths out its daily trend. The put/...
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STOCKS RECOVER IN FINAL HOUR -- XLF FORMS HAMMER -- RKH TRACES OUT DRAGON FLY DOJI -- RETAIL HOLDERS FAILS AT 50-DAY -- KOHLS GAPS DOWN -- TIFFANY DECLINES ON HIGH VOLUME -- WAL-MART HITS RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS STAGE LATE RECOVERY... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Stocks were down sharply in afternoon trading, but news of a mortgage relief program sparked a dramatic rally in the final hour. The Nasdaq (+.73%) and the Nasdaq 100 (+1.28%) led the recovery...
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DOW LEADS MARKET LOWER - VIX REMAINS AT HIGH LEVELS -- VOLATILITY INDICES CONSOLIDATE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW BREAKS TO NEW LOWS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
With a sharp decline in early trading on Thursday, the Dow Industrials broke below the January-February lows. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading at its lowest level of the year today. In...
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STOCKS FIRM AFTER SHARP DECLINE -- SPY AND IWM REMAIN WITHIN CONSOLIDATIONS -- QQQQ SHOWS GAIN FOR 2009 -- TWO KEY FINANCIAL ETFS FORM INSIDE DAYS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LARGE TRIANGLES CONTINUE TO EVOLVE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Last week I featured a chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with a rather large triangle over the last few months. Chart 1 shows this pattern still at work with...
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BONDS SURGE ON BAILOUT CONCERNS -- LONG-TERM RATES HIT RESISTANCE - GOLD EXTENDS ITS GAINS AND COVERAGE -- USING SHORT-TERM RSI TO IDENTIFY PULLBACKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BONDS EXTEND ADVANCE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
As John Murphy noted, there was a flight to safety as money charged into gold, bonds and the Dollar on Tuesday. Bonds and gold added to their gains with another surge early Wednesday. The rise...
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STOCKS FALL IN HEAVY TRADING ON BAILOUT PLAN -- DROP IN EURO PUSHES DOLLAR HIGHER AND MOST COMMODITIES LOWER -- GOLD AND THE YEN CONTINUE TO ATTRACT SAFE HAVEN MONEY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS FALL IN HEAVY TRADING ... The stock market reacted badly to release of the latest bailout plan. All of the major market indexes lost more than 4%. Charts 1 and 2 show the Dow Diamonds and the S&P 500 SPDRs falling in heavy trading. Both indexes met resistance...
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