RETRACEMENT SUPPORT LEVELS... The market has risen more than 20% since March 9 and is certainly entitled to a pullback. And it got one today. The good news is that the day's decline occurred on relatively light volume. While most groups fell, the biggest selling was seen in... READ MORE
SUPPORT LEVELS ON HOURLY CHARTS... Global stocks are having a bad day. The S&P 500 is down -3.5% and is trading below its 50-day moving average. A close below that line would be a setback for the March rally . The Dow and the NYSE Composite Index are... READ MORE
PERFORMANCE CHARTS... One of our readers asked what tools we use to spot sector and industry group leaders. One of the easiest ways is to use the Performance Charts on our main menu. By clicking on that choice, you can chart group performance for U.S. stock indexes, commodity groups,... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR SURGES OVER 4% ... Led by strength in retail and transports, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) surged 4.61% on Thursday. Chart 1 shows XLY up almost 29% in the last 13 days. This surge compares to the advance from late November until early December - when XLY... READ MORE
QE AND BONDS YIELDS... Bonds surged after the Fed announced its plan to purchase some $300 billion of long-term Treasuries last Wednesday. This quantitative easing (QE) is designed to push Treasuries higher and yields lower. Remember, yields move down as Treasuries move up. Chart 1 shows the relationship between the... READ MORE
WILD DAY FOR STOCKS... Stocks went on a wild ride Wednesday. The S&P 500 started strong with a 2% surge in the first hour, but weakened and declined sharply into the afternoon. A final-hour surge pushed the index back into positive territory to end with a modest gain... READ MORE
POSITIVE DIVERGENCES... I made mention yesterday of the fact that several of our technical indicators were looking more positive. I'm referring primarily to "positive divergences" that have shown up during the most recent first quarter price drop. Here are two that I've shown before.... READ MORE
S&P 500 CLEARS 800 RESISTANCE AND 50-DAY AVERAGE... The Treasury's trillion dollar plan for buying bank toxic assets, combined with a strong February housing figure, sparked a strong day in both stocks and commodity markets. Financials and energy were the two strongest groups. Homebuilders and REITS... READ MORE
FINANCIALS LEAD MARKET HIGHER... In a repeat of how we started last week, financials are the leading a strong market rally today. The main catalyst is the Treasury's announcement of a one trillion public-private plan to buy banks' toxic assets. A jump in February existing home sales... READ MORE
GOLD STOCKS TOP 200-DAY AVERAGE... The Fed's midweek surprise announcement that it was buying Treasury bonds had a fairly predictable ripple effect through the various financial markets. Naturally, Treasury bond prices jumped and yields collapsed. The big drop in bond yields pushed the dollar sharply lower and commodities... READ MORE
FINANCIALS PULLBACK FROM OVERBOUGHT LEVELS... A day after the big Fed announcement, financial stocks declined from overbought levels. As noted yesterday, the Financials SPDR (XLF) and Regional Bank HOLDRS (RKH) were up substantially over the last two weeks. Charts 1 and 2 show both exceeding their 50-day moving averages and... READ MORE
DOLLAR CONTINUES TO FALL... In a continuation from yesterday's breakdown, the US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) extended its fall in early trading on Thursday. Chart 1 shows the ETF down over 1% with move below 25. The bottom indicator window shows UUP with the S&P 500... READ MORE
FED STATEMENT STOKES THE BULLS... Stocks surged after the Fed announced plans to buy long-term Treasury bonds and increase its purchases of mortgage-backed securities. With today's announcement, the Fed is set to expand its balance sheet by over $1 trillion. With the money spigot open, the S&... READ MORE
ANOTHER GLIMMER OF HOPE... Over the last week, we've been writing about a stronger tone in financial stocks and the positive impact that's having on the rest of the market. Today, we're seeing another glimmer of hope in a rebounding consumer discretionary sector which... READ MORE
AIG IS TODAY'S FINANCIAL LEADER... Most of today's headline is a repeat of the one I posted at midday last Tuesday just as the current market bounce was starting. I'm posting it again today to show that all of those positive forces are still... READ MORE
WHICH FIFTH WAVE IS THE MARKET COMPLETING?... On Tuesday, I offered my view of the current Elliott Wave structure. I suggested that the last leg down starting in January appeared close to completing the entire Wave 3 that started last May. That would pave the way for a Wave 4... READ MORE
SMALL-CAPS AND MID-CAPS LEAD ... For the second time in three days, stocks surged with a broad advance on good volume. All sectors were up and almost all industry groups were higher. Small-caps led the way as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained over 6%. Mid-caps were a distant second with... READ MORE
GOLD GETS ANOTHER OVERSOLD BOUNCE... For the second time in as many weeks, the Gold SPDR (GLD) is bouncing off support after becoming oversold. Last week I showed GLD as 3-period RSI became oversold. This bounce did not hold as gold returned to support early this week. Once again, GLD... READ MORE
EURO EXTENDS ITS BOUNCE... Continued strength in stocks pushed the euro higher again on Wednesday. As John Murphy suggested on Tuesday, the dollar was part of the flight-to-safety trade. Conversely, the euro suffered in a risk-averse environment. With a big surge in stocks on Tuesday, risk-aversion took a back seat... READ MORE
BREADTH SURGES ON NASDAQ AND NYSE ... Market breadth provides a means to measure the degree of participation in a market move. After big moves, breadth and volume are my first ports of call to judge the robustness of a move especially an advance. Advances with strong breadth and high volume... READ MORE
S&P 500 COMES VERY CLOSE TO 62% RETRACEMENT ... Some of our readers have asked me to revisit potential downside targets for the market. Chart 1 is an updated version of a chart I showed on February 27. That earlier chart showed that a 62% retracement of the secular... READ MORE
CITIGROUP LEADS FINANCIALS HIGHER... News that Citigroup is having a good quarter has pushed that stock sharply higher today and helped spark a global stock rebound. The daily bars in Chart 1 show Citigroup gapping 34% higher (and on rising volume). The 14-day RSI (solid line) is rebounding from an... READ MORE
DOW THEORY STILL IN DOWNTREND... At the start of the 20th century, Charles Dow invented the Dow Theory. It was a simple idea. He created two stock indexes -- one for industrial stocks and one for the transports (which were exclusively rails). His reasoning was that both indexes should rise... READ MORE
STOCKS FALL IN BROAD DECLINE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor It was a sea of red on Wall Street. All nine sectors were lower with financials leading the way. Just when you thought they could not go any lower, chart 1 shows the... READ MORE
EURO FALLS AFTER ECB DECISION... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) cuts its key rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 1.5%. Even though their key rate is at its lowest level ever, analysts expect further... READ MORE
STOCKS STAGE BROAD ADVANCE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor The stock market staged a broad advance on Wednesday with eight of nine sectors moving higher. While this advance looks impressive by itself, it needs to be considered in the context of the prior... READ MORE
VIX LAGS THE S&P 500 ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) measures the implied volatility for a basket of S&P 500 options, both puts and calls. John Murphy pointed out a rising... READ MORE
GLOBAL BENCHMARKS... A couple of readers ask where foreign stock markets were in relation to their 2002 lows. And they wanted to see the charts of the actual cash markets instead of Exchange Traded Funds. Charts 1 through 5 show five major foreign stock benchmarks through yesterday's close.... READ MORE
INVERSE ETFS ARE RISING ... Rather than showing you pictures of falling stock indexes, I'm going to show you charts of stock indexes that are rising. That would of course be inverse (or bear) ETFs. These inverse funds are designed to trade in the opposite direction of their respective... READ MORE
NOWHERE TO HIDE... Another massive loss by AIG and problems at HSBC, which is Europe's biggest bank, have helped send global stocks sharply lower today. The heavy selling started in Asia before spreading to Europe and the U.S. The Dow and S&P 500 broke their... READ MORE
WEAK ECONOMIC NUMBERS PUSH STOCKS LOWER... The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 closed at the lowest level in twelve years on Monday. I cautioned, however, that the most important close of the week would take place on Friday. That's because today is the last trading... READ MORE
SECTOR LEADERS SUCCUMB TO THE BEAR... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor There are not many places to hide in this market. Richard Russell, of Dow Theory Letters, used to say: "In a bear market, everyone loses, and the winner is the one... READ MORE
BONDS MOVER LOWER ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor Bonds are coming under pressure from the prospect of increasing supply. The bailouts and stimulus package will require the government to raise large amounts of money through bond auctions (sales). Today, the government is set... READ MORE
STOCKS RECOVER FROM LOWS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor Stocks dipped sharply lower in early trading, but staged a tech-led comeback in the afternoon. Nothing has changed on the daily charts, but I did notice a couple of interesting patterns on the intraday... READ MORE
SPY TESTS NOVEMBER LOW... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor The stock market surged on Tuesday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) both gaining over 3.5%. This is an impressive gain when viewed as a single... READ MORE
GOLD STOCKS BACK BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE... Gold stocks are coming under new selling pressure. Chart 1 shows the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) trading back below its 200-day moving average today. Part of that selling is coming from the two biggest gold stocks. Chart 2 shows Barrick Gold tumbling... READ MORE
2002 LOWS UNDER PRESSURE ... Price declines in excess of 3% pushed the Dow and S&P 500 to the lowest closing price in twelve years. The monthly bars in Charts 1 and 2 show those two indexes closing under the previous bear market low formed in the fourth quarter... READ MORE
GOLD TOUCHES $1000 FOR FIRST TIME IN A YEAR... A number of financial markets are testing important chart points. Let's start with gold. Bullion touched $1,000 today for the first time since last March. Chart 1 shows the streetTracks Gold Trust (GLD) very close to touching its... READ MORE
DOW CLOSES BELOW NOVEMBER LOW... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor As noted yesterday, a close below 7552.29 in the Dow Industrials would confirm a Dow Theory sell signal. The Dow Transports already did its part with a close below the November (closing)... READ MORE
DOW THEORY REMAINS BEARISH... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor Dow Theory remains on a sell signal as the Dow Transports broke below its late November low. Before moving on to the charts, let's review some Dow Theory basics. A Dow Theory... READ MORE