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THE ONLY STOCK FUNDS GOING UP ARE BEAR FUNDS -- THE VIX IS ALSO RISING -- THE DOLLAR CONTINUES TO RISE ON SAFE HAVEN BUYING -- RUSSELL 2000 SMALL CAP INDEX BREAKS NOVEMBER LOW -- THE NASDAQ MAY BE NEXT -- TREASURY BONDS BOUNCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
INVERSE ETFS ARE RISING ... Rather than showing you pictures of falling stock indexes, I'm going to show you charts of stock indexes that are rising. That would of course be inverse (or bear) ETFs. These inverse funds are designed to trade in the opposite direction of their respective...
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GLOBAL STOCKS UNDERCUT NOVEMBER LOWS -- MORE 2002 LOWS ARE BEING THREATENED -- BONDS AND THE DOLLAR ARE ONLY WINNERS -- COMMODIITES REMAIN WEAK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NOWHERE TO HIDE... Another massive loss by AIG and problems at HSBC, which is Europe's biggest bank, have helped send global stocks sharply lower today. The heavy selling started in Asia before spreading to Europe and the U.S. The Dow and S&P 500 broke their...
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WEAK ECONOMIC NUMBERS PUSH MARKET BACK NEAR 2002 LOWS -- DOWNSIDE TARGETS FOR THE DOW AND S&P IF THOSE LOWS ARE BROKEN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEAK ECONOMIC NUMBERS PUSH STOCKS LOWER... The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 closed at the lowest level in twelve years on Monday. I cautioned, however, that the most important close of the week would take place on Friday. That's because today is the last trading...
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WEAKNESS SPREADS TO OTHER SECTORS - HEALTHCARE SPDR BREAKS JANUARY LOW -- TECH SPDR BATTLES SUPPORT -- ENERGY SPDR TESTS 2008 LOWS -- UTILITIES SPDR BREAKS NOVEMBER LOW
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SECTOR LEADERS SUCCUMB TO THE BEAR... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
There are not many places to hide in this market. Richard Russell, of Dow Theory Letters, used to say: "In a bear market, everyone loses, and the winner is the one...
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BONDS COME UNDER PRESSURE -- INTEREST RATES RISE -- SHORT-TERM RATES REFLECT UNCERTAINTY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BONDS MOVER LOWER ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Bonds are coming under pressure from the prospect of increasing supply. The bailouts and stimulus package will require the government to raise large amounts of money through bond auctions (sales). Today, the government is set...
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QQQQ RALLIES BACK -- YEN ETF CONFIRMS DOUBLE TOP -- NIKKEI TESTS OCTOBER LOW -- OIL SURGES FROM OVERSOLD LEVELS -- XLE AND OIH FAIL TO FOLLOW OIL HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS RECOVER FROM LOWS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Stocks dipped sharply lower in early trading, but staged a tech-led comeback in the afternoon. Nothing has changed on the daily charts, but I did notice a couple of interesting patterns on the intraday...
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UPSIDE VOLUME FAILS TO IMPRESS -- SPY REMAINS WITH SUPPORT BREAK -- QQQQ HOLDS DOWN GAP -- IWM AND DIA FORM HARAMI
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPY TESTS NOVEMBER LOW... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
The stock market surged on Tuesday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) both gaining over 3.5%. This is an impressive gain when viewed as a single...
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GOLD IS BACKING OFF FROM 1,000 AS GOLD STOCKS FALL BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE -- GOLD GIVES FIRST SHORT-TERM SELL SIGNAL IN MORE THAN A MONTH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD STOCKS BACK BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE... Gold stocks are coming under new selling pressure. Chart 1 shows the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) trading back below its 200-day moving average today. Part of that selling is coming from the two biggest gold stocks. Chart 2 shows Barrick Gold tumbling...
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DOW AND S&P 500 CLOSE BELOW 2002 BOTTOM -- TREASURY BONDS BOUNCE ALONG WITH THE DOLLAR -- GOLD HOLDS FIRM -- A RISING VIX IS ANOTHER WARNING SIGNAL FOR STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
2002 LOWS UNDER PRESSURE ... Price declines in excess of 3% pushed the Dow and S&P 500 to the lowest closing price in twelve years. The monthly bars in Charts 1 and 2 show those two indexes closing under the previous bear market low formed in the fourth quarter...
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A LOT OF MARKETS ARE AT CRITICAL CHART JUNCTURES -- GOLD REACHES $1,000 TARGET WHILE DOLLAR PULLS BACK FROM ITS NOVEMBER HIGH -- MAJOR MARKET INDEXES ARE TESTING THEIR NOVEMBER LOW AND THEIR 2002 BOTTOM
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD TOUCHES $1000 FOR FIRST TIME IN A YEAR... A number of financial markets are testing important chart points. Let's start with gold. Bullion touched $1,000 today for the first time since last March. Chart 1 shows the streetTracks Gold Trust (GLD) very close to touching its...
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DOW BREAKS NOVEMBER LOW -- FINANCIALS LEAD LOWER -- SHAREHOLDERS BAILOUT OF CITIGROUP -- GE TRADES LIKE A BIG BANK -- DOW STOCKS UNDER $10 -- MACD TURNS BEARISH FOR THE NASDAQ -- EUROSTOXX ETF TESTS SUPPORT ZONE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW CLOSES BELOW NOVEMBER LOW... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
As noted yesterday, a close below 7552.29 in the Dow Industrials would confirm a Dow Theory sell signal. The Dow Transports already did its part with a close below the November (closing)...
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DOW INDUSTRIALS TESTS NOVEMBER LOW -- DOW TRANSPORTS BREAKS NOVEMBER LOW -- MARKET BREADTH DETERIORATES -- VIX AND VXN BREAK ABOVE 50-DAY LINES -- A NEW VOLATILITY BASED ETN -- MOSAIC AND POTASH FORM RISING WEDGES -- MONSANTO TESTS SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW THEORY REMAINS BEARISH... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Dow Theory remains on a sell signal as the Dow Transports broke below its late November low. Before moving on to the charts, let's review some Dow Theory basics. A Dow Theory...
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PLAYING DEFENSE WITH THE SECTOR ROTATION MODEL -- THE NEW GOLD STANDARD -- FINANCIAL SPDR HITS NEW LOW AND LEADS MARKET LOWER -- S&P HITS THREE-MONTH LOW -- BONDS BOUNCE AS STOCKS WEAKEN -- GOLD AND SILVER SURGE -- WATCH MY BLOOMBERG INTERVIEW HERE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SECTOR ROTATION MODEL ... One of our readers asked for more information on the Sector Rotation Model shown below. [This version can be found under the AMEX SPDRs part of the Performance Charts]. The model shows which sectors tend to lead at various stages of the business cycle. In my new...
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GLOBAL STOCKS WEAKEN -- THE DOW AND S&P 500 REACH LOWEST LEVELS SINCE NOVEMBER -- GOLD AND THE DOLLAR JUMP SHARPLY AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES TUMBLE -- BONDS RISE AS STOCKS FALL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS FALL SHARPLY... Stocks are falling sharply all over the world. Most foreign markets fell on Monday when our markets were closed and continued their fall today. Our market is just following along. On Friday, I showed a point & figure chart of the S&P 500 on a...
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LOW PUT/CALL RATIO IS A POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE SIGN FOR THE STOCK MARKET -- POINT & FIGURE CHARTS OF THE MAJOR MARKET INDEXES -- THE SECOND EDITION OF THE VISUAL INVESTOR IS MY NEWEST AND MY FAVORITE BOOK -- I'LL BE ON BLOOMBERG TONIGHT AT 5:10 NYT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LOW PUT-CALL RATIO IS NEGATIVE SIGN ... One of things that worries me about the current market is the unusually low reading in the CBOE Put/Call Ratio (CPC). The red line in Chart 1 is a 5-day moving average of the CPC which smooths out its daily trend. The put/...
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STOCKS RECOVER IN FINAL HOUR -- XLF FORMS HAMMER -- RKH TRACES OUT DRAGON FLY DOJI -- RETAIL HOLDERS FAILS AT 50-DAY -- KOHLS GAPS DOWN -- TIFFANY DECLINES ON HIGH VOLUME -- WAL-MART HITS RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS STAGE LATE RECOVERY... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Stocks were down sharply in afternoon trading, but news of a mortgage relief program sparked a dramatic rally in the final hour. The Nasdaq (+.73%) and the Nasdaq 100 (+1.28%) led the recovery...
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DOW LEADS MARKET LOWER - VIX REMAINS AT HIGH LEVELS -- VOLATILITY INDICES CONSOLIDATE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW BREAKS TO NEW LOWS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
With a sharp decline in early trading on Thursday, the Dow Industrials broke below the January-February lows. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading at its lowest level of the year today. In...
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STOCKS FIRM AFTER SHARP DECLINE -- SPY AND IWM REMAIN WITHIN CONSOLIDATIONS -- QQQQ SHOWS GAIN FOR 2009 -- TWO KEY FINANCIAL ETFS FORM INSIDE DAYS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LARGE TRIANGLES CONTINUE TO EVOLVE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Last week I featured a chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with a rather large triangle over the last few months. Chart 1 shows this pattern still at work with...
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BONDS SURGE ON BAILOUT CONCERNS -- LONG-TERM RATES HIT RESISTANCE - GOLD EXTENDS ITS GAINS AND COVERAGE -- USING SHORT-TERM RSI TO IDENTIFY PULLBACKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BONDS EXTEND ADVANCE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
As John Murphy noted, there was a flight to safety as money charged into gold, bonds and the Dollar on Tuesday. Bonds and gold added to their gains with another surge early Wednesday. The rise...
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STOCKS FALL IN HEAVY TRADING ON BAILOUT PLAN -- DROP IN EURO PUSHES DOLLAR HIGHER AND MOST COMMODITIES LOWER -- GOLD AND THE YEN CONTINUE TO ATTRACT SAFE HAVEN MONEY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS FALL IN HEAVY TRADING ... The stock market reacted badly to release of the latest bailout plan. All of the major market indexes lost more than 4%. Charts 1 and 2 show the Dow Diamonds and the S&P 500 SPDRs falling in heavy trading. Both indexes met resistance...
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STOCKS SELL OFF ON BAILOUT PACKAGE AS FINANCIALS LEAD DECLINE -- BONDS AND GOLD BOUNCE IN SAVE HAVEN BID -- GLD AND BARRICK GOLD CHALLENGE AUTUMN HIGHS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS FALL IN HEAVY TRADING ... Stocks have sold off in heavy trading after details of the new bailout plan were released. The hourly bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 SPDRS tumbling more than 3% in heavy trading. It's important to note that the recent...
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DAILY AND WEEKLY MACD LINES ARE HELPING TO SUPPORT STOCKS WHICH END WEEK ON A POSITIVE NOTE -- SIGNS OF BUYING IN FINANCIALS AND HOMEBUILDERS ARE ALSO AN ENCOURAGING SIGN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MACD LINES SHOW SOME PROMISE ... Another reader complained this week that we failed to point out the "negative divergence" in the daily MACD lines during January prior to the latest downturn. The reason I didn't point it out was because none existed. In fact, it may...
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THREE ACTIONABLE IDEAS THAT I'VE WRITTEN ABOUT IN THE NEW YEAR INCLUDE GOLD, CORPORATE BONDS AND TIPS, AND HEALTHCARE STOCKS --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD IS RISING AGAINST ALL CURRENCIES... One of our readers complained to me this week that we haven't provided any actionable ideas since the start of the new year. How about gold? We've written a number of positive articles on that commodity over the past couple...
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STOCKS STAGE RECOVERY ON EXPANDING VOLUME -- OIL SERVICES AND SEMIS LEAD ADVANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NASDAQ SURGES OVER 2%... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
It was a wild day on Wall Street as stocks opened weak and then staged an impressive advance with above average volume. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq with a long white candlestick that closed...
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GOLD SURGES AND TURNS VOLATILE -- EURO REMAINS WEAK OVERALL -- TIPS AND GOLD MOVE IN TANDEM -- RISING INTEREST RATES BOOST THE DOLLAR -- STRONG DOLLAR KEEPS OIL IN CHECK - INTERMARKET PICTURE SINCE MID DECEMBER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD AND THE EURO DIVERGE ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Contrary to historical tendencies, gold and the Euro appear to be going their separate ways. There has historically been a negative correlation between the U.S. Dollar and gold. The Dollar advances as...
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SPY CONTINUES THE BIG STALL -- QQQQ SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH -- SEMIS LEAD THE TECH SECTOR HIGHER -- TXN SURGES ON GOOD VOLUME -- INTEL SURGES ON LACKLUSTER VOLUME -- DOW TRANSPORTS LAG -- DOW UTILITIES LEAD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPY REMAINS RANGE BOUND... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Indecision continues to grip the stock market as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) trades within a tightening range. Chart 1 shows SPY trading on either side of 85 since 10-Oct (blue dotted...
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A NUMBER OF HEALTHCARE STOCKS CONTINUE TO TRADE ABOVE THEIR 200-DAY AVERAGES -- NEW ADDITIONS INCLUDE ABBOTT LABS, GILEAD AND MEDCO HEALTH SOLUTIONS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HEALTHCARE GIVES MARKET A BOOST ... On January 27, I wrote about upside leadership coming from healthcare stocks, and suggested that more of that could provide some support for the rest of the market. That's certainly the case today. Better than expected earnings from Merck and Schering Plough are...
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STOCKS HAVE WORST JANUARY IN HISTORY -- CORPORATE BONDS GAIN GROUND AS TREASURIES DROP -- GOLD CONTINUES TO SHINE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOING FOR THE GOLD ... With stocks falling again this week, and Treasury bond prices tumbling, investors turned to gold as a safe haven. Chart 1 shows bullion closing jumping $22 on Friday to end at $928 which puts it right up against its October intra-day peak at $936. On a...
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LACKLUSTER VOLUME -- NASDAQ AND NY COMPOSITE BREAK FLAG RESISTANCE -- FED STATEMENT WEIGHS ON BONDS -- DOLLAR FIRMS AS RATES RISE -- GOLD RISES ALONG WITH THE DOLLAR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
VOLUME FAILS TO INSPIRE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Despite a big advance on Wednesday, Nasdaq and NYSE volume levels were uninspiring. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq surging 3.55% with average volume. Chart 2 shows the NY Composite surging 3.5% with...
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FINANCIALS SURGE ON BAD BANK IDEA -- XLF AND RKH GAP HIGHER -- CITIGROUP, BANK OF AMERICA AND WELLS SURGE - BROKERS OUTPERFORMING BANKS - POINT & FIGURE SETTINGS -- TARGETS AND REVERSAL MARKERS FOR SPX AND NDX
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCIALS LEAD BROAD MARKET ADVANCE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
In early trading on Wednesday, financial stocks led the market higher as investors embraced the "bad bank" idea. Bloomberg reported that President Obama was nearing a deal to create a bad...
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GOLD STILL HAS MORE RESISTANCE BARRIERS TO OVERCOME -- WHY GOLD CAN BE A DEFLATION HEDGE -- GOLD STRENGTH HINTS AT DOLLAR WEAKNESS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD STILL HAS MORE BARRIERS TO OVERCOME... I've gotten a lot of questions about the recent upturn in gold. I'll try to answer some of them here. I wrote on Friday that gold had "broken out" to a three-month high and had exceeded its...
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HEALTHCARE IS TOP DEFENSIVE SECTOR -- LEADERS INCLUDE BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB, SCHERING PLOUGH, UNITEDHEALTH, AND MYLAN LABS -- MCKESSON AND ST JUDE MEDICAL GAP HIGHER -- HEALTHCARE SPDR NEARS TEST OF JANUARY HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HEATLHCARE RS LINE HITS NEW HIGH ... Over the last year, the three top performing market sectors have been consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities (in that order). Although all three have lost money, they've lost a lost less than the market as a whole. That's perfectly normal...
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GOING FOR THE GOLD -- BULLION BREAKS OUT -- BARRICK AND NEWMONT EXCEED 200-DAY AVERAGES -- TIPS GAIN GROUND ON TREASURY BONDS -- MCCELLAN OSCILLATOR TURNS NEGATIVE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD HITS THREE MONTH HIGH ... The gold market is starting to attract a lot of attention and money. Chart 1 shows the streetTracks Gold Trust ETF (GLD) jumping $36 dollars today. In so doing, it has decisively cleared the falling resistance drawn over the July/October highs. And it did...
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VOLATILITY REIGNS SUPREME -- DOW BATTLES SUPPORT AT 8000 -- USING STOCHRSI TO IDENTIFY THE SWINGS -- AN INVERSE HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS FOR DIA? -- BONDS FALL SHARPY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW CONTINUES ITS SWINGING WAYS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials since early October. Despite a number of big swings the last few months, the average is currently trading near the October lows. Essentially, the Dow has gone...
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DOWNSIDE BREADTH STRONGER THAN UPSIDE BREADTH -- NEW 52-WEEK LOWS STILL OUTPACING NEW 52-WEEK HIGHS -- VOLUME LEVELS REMAIN UNINSPIRING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BREADTH LAGS ON BOUNCE ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
The stock market surged on Wednesday, but a look under the hood shows lagging breadth and uninspiring volume. Before getting into the analysis, let's review some key breadth indicators. Charts 1 and...
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SPY AND QQQQ FORM HARAMI PATTERNS -- FINANCIALS LEAD RECOVERY BOUNCE -- SURGING OIL BOOSTS XLE AND OIH -- MARKET CARPET SEES RED IN 2009 -- CONSUMER STAPLES SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPY AND QQQQ FORM INSIDE DAYS ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
After a long black candlestick and sharp decline on Tuesday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) formed inside days on Wednesday. Taken together, the candlesticks of...
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STOCKS SUFFER WORST INAUGURATION DAY DROP IN HISTORY -- A RETEST OF NOVEMBER LOWS APPEARS LIKELY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NYSE INDEX LOSES 6% ON RISING VOLUME... According to Bloomberg, today's stock drop was the biggest loss in inauguration day history. Chart 1 shows the NYSE Composite Index losing 6% and ending at the lowest close since early December (as did all of the other major stock indexes)...
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PLUNGE IN BANK SHARES PULLS REST OF THE MARKET LOWER -- TODAY'S ONLY WINNERS ARE THE DOLLAR, YEN, AND GOLD -- A RISING VIX IS SOMETHING ELSE FOR STOCKS TO WORRY ABOUT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BANKS PLUNGE TO NEW LOWS... The plunge in European bank shares on Monday spilled over to U.S. trading today. Chart 1 shows the PHLX Bank Index falling near 15% to a new low. Financials and consumer discretionary are among the day's biggest losers. Other big losers include...
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EUROPEAN MARKETS FALL ON MONDAY ALONG WITH US STOCK FUTURES -- INTERMARKET RELATIONSHIPS STILL PAINT A NEGATIVE PICTURE FOR STOCKS AND COMMODITIES AS A RISING DOLLAR HURTS BOTH -- CORPORATE BONDS PLAY CATCH-UP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EUROPEAN MARKETS FALL ... Although U.S. markets are closed for the Martin Luther King holiday, foreign markets are open. And, unfortunately, most of them are dropping. That includes Brazil, Canada, and Europe. Stocks fell in all 18 western European markets. A catalyst for European weakness was a 67% plunge in...
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BEWARE OF SHORT-TERM WHIPSAWS -- USE LONG-TERM CHARTS TO FILTER DAILY SIGNALS -- MORE BOND ETFS ARE BOUNCING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
OTHER BOND CATEGORIES ARE BOUNCING... I recently wrote about how investment grade corporate bonds were starting to gain some ground on Treasury bonds. Today, I'm adding two other bond categories to that list. The flat line in Chart 1 is the 20+Year Treasury Bond iShares (TLT) which...
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