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PLAYING DEFENSE WITH THE SECTOR ROTATION MODEL -- THE NEW GOLD STANDARD -- FINANCIAL SPDR HITS NEW LOW AND LEADS MARKET LOWER -- S&P HITS THREE-MONTH LOW -- BONDS BOUNCE AS STOCKS WEAKEN -- GOLD AND SILVER SURGE -- WATCH MY BLOOMBERG INTERVIEW HERE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SECTOR ROTATION MODEL ... One of our readers asked for more information on the Sector Rotation Model shown below. [This version can be found under the AMEX SPDRs part of the Performance Charts]. The model shows which sectors tend to lead at various stages of the business cycle. In my new...
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GLOBAL STOCKS WEAKEN -- THE DOW AND S&P 500 REACH LOWEST LEVELS SINCE NOVEMBER -- GOLD AND THE DOLLAR JUMP SHARPLY AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES TUMBLE -- BONDS RISE AS STOCKS FALL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS FALL SHARPLY... Stocks are falling sharply all over the world. Most foreign markets fell on Monday when our markets were closed and continued their fall today. Our market is just following along. On Friday, I showed a point & figure chart of the S&P 500 on a...
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LOW PUT/CALL RATIO IS A POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE SIGN FOR THE STOCK MARKET -- POINT & FIGURE CHARTS OF THE MAJOR MARKET INDEXES -- THE SECOND EDITION OF THE VISUAL INVESTOR IS MY NEWEST AND MY FAVORITE BOOK -- I'LL BE ON BLOOMBERG TONIGHT AT 5:10 NYT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LOW PUT-CALL RATIO IS NEGATIVE SIGN ... One of things that worries me about the current market is the unusually low reading in the CBOE Put/Call Ratio (CPC). The red line in Chart 1 is a 5-day moving average of the CPC which smooths out its daily trend. The put/...
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STOCKS RECOVER IN FINAL HOUR -- XLF FORMS HAMMER -- RKH TRACES OUT DRAGON FLY DOJI -- RETAIL HOLDERS FAILS AT 50-DAY -- KOHLS GAPS DOWN -- TIFFANY DECLINES ON HIGH VOLUME -- WAL-MART HITS RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS STAGE LATE RECOVERY... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Stocks were down sharply in afternoon trading, but news of a mortgage relief program sparked a dramatic rally in the final hour. The Nasdaq (+.73%) and the Nasdaq 100 (+1.28%) led the recovery...
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DOW LEADS MARKET LOWER - VIX REMAINS AT HIGH LEVELS -- VOLATILITY INDICES CONSOLIDATE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW BREAKS TO NEW LOWS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
With a sharp decline in early trading on Thursday, the Dow Industrials broke below the January-February lows. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading at its lowest level of the year today. In...
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STOCKS FIRM AFTER SHARP DECLINE -- SPY AND IWM REMAIN WITHIN CONSOLIDATIONS -- QQQQ SHOWS GAIN FOR 2009 -- TWO KEY FINANCIAL ETFS FORM INSIDE DAYS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LARGE TRIANGLES CONTINUE TO EVOLVE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Last week I featured a chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with a rather large triangle over the last few months. Chart 1 shows this pattern still at work with...
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BONDS SURGE ON BAILOUT CONCERNS -- LONG-TERM RATES HIT RESISTANCE - GOLD EXTENDS ITS GAINS AND COVERAGE -- USING SHORT-TERM RSI TO IDENTIFY PULLBACKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BONDS EXTEND ADVANCE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
As John Murphy noted, there was a flight to safety as money charged into gold, bonds and the Dollar on Tuesday. Bonds and gold added to their gains with another surge early Wednesday. The rise...
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STOCKS FALL IN HEAVY TRADING ON BAILOUT PLAN -- DROP IN EURO PUSHES DOLLAR HIGHER AND MOST COMMODITIES LOWER -- GOLD AND THE YEN CONTINUE TO ATTRACT SAFE HAVEN MONEY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS FALL IN HEAVY TRADING ... The stock market reacted badly to release of the latest bailout plan. All of the major market indexes lost more than 4%. Charts 1 and 2 show the Dow Diamonds and the S&P 500 SPDRs falling in heavy trading. Both indexes met resistance...
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STOCKS SELL OFF ON BAILOUT PACKAGE AS FINANCIALS LEAD DECLINE -- BONDS AND GOLD BOUNCE IN SAVE HAVEN BID -- GLD AND BARRICK GOLD CHALLENGE AUTUMN HIGHS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS FALL IN HEAVY TRADING ... Stocks have sold off in heavy trading after details of the new bailout plan were released. The hourly bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 SPDRS tumbling more than 3% in heavy trading. It's important to note that the recent...
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DAILY AND WEEKLY MACD LINES ARE HELPING TO SUPPORT STOCKS WHICH END WEEK ON A POSITIVE NOTE -- SIGNS OF BUYING IN FINANCIALS AND HOMEBUILDERS ARE ALSO AN ENCOURAGING SIGN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MACD LINES SHOW SOME PROMISE ... Another reader complained this week that we failed to point out the "negative divergence" in the daily MACD lines during January prior to the latest downturn. The reason I didn't point it out was because none existed. In fact, it may...
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THREE ACTIONABLE IDEAS THAT I'VE WRITTEN ABOUT IN THE NEW YEAR INCLUDE GOLD, CORPORATE BONDS AND TIPS, AND HEALTHCARE STOCKS --
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD IS RISING AGAINST ALL CURRENCIES... One of our readers complained to me this week that we haven't provided any actionable ideas since the start of the new year. How about gold? We've written a number of positive articles on that commodity over the past couple...
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STOCKS STAGE RECOVERY ON EXPANDING VOLUME -- OIL SERVICES AND SEMIS LEAD ADVANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NASDAQ SURGES OVER 2%... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
It was a wild day on Wall Street as stocks opened weak and then staged an impressive advance with above average volume. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq with a long white candlestick that closed...
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GOLD SURGES AND TURNS VOLATILE -- EURO REMAINS WEAK OVERALL -- TIPS AND GOLD MOVE IN TANDEM -- RISING INTEREST RATES BOOST THE DOLLAR -- STRONG DOLLAR KEEPS OIL IN CHECK - INTERMARKET PICTURE SINCE MID DECEMBER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD AND THE EURO DIVERGE ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Contrary to historical tendencies, gold and the Euro appear to be going their separate ways. There has historically been a negative correlation between the U.S. Dollar and gold. The Dollar advances as...
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SPY CONTINUES THE BIG STALL -- QQQQ SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH -- SEMIS LEAD THE TECH SECTOR HIGHER -- TXN SURGES ON GOOD VOLUME -- INTEL SURGES ON LACKLUSTER VOLUME -- DOW TRANSPORTS LAG -- DOW UTILITIES LEAD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPY REMAINS RANGE BOUND... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Indecision continues to grip the stock market as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) trades within a tightening range. Chart 1 shows SPY trading on either side of 85 since 10-Oct (blue dotted...
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A NUMBER OF HEALTHCARE STOCKS CONTINUE TO TRADE ABOVE THEIR 200-DAY AVERAGES -- NEW ADDITIONS INCLUDE ABBOTT LABS, GILEAD AND MEDCO HEALTH SOLUTIONS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HEALTHCARE GIVES MARKET A BOOST ... On January 27, I wrote about upside leadership coming from healthcare stocks, and suggested that more of that could provide some support for the rest of the market. That's certainly the case today. Better than expected earnings from Merck and Schering Plough are...
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STOCKS HAVE WORST JANUARY IN HISTORY -- CORPORATE BONDS GAIN GROUND AS TREASURIES DROP -- GOLD CONTINUES TO SHINE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOING FOR THE GOLD ... With stocks falling again this week, and Treasury bond prices tumbling, investors turned to gold as a safe haven. Chart 1 shows bullion closing jumping $22 on Friday to end at $928 which puts it right up against its October intra-day peak at $936. On a...
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LACKLUSTER VOLUME -- NASDAQ AND NY COMPOSITE BREAK FLAG RESISTANCE -- FED STATEMENT WEIGHS ON BONDS -- DOLLAR FIRMS AS RATES RISE -- GOLD RISES ALONG WITH THE DOLLAR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
VOLUME FAILS TO INSPIRE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Despite a big advance on Wednesday, Nasdaq and NYSE volume levels were uninspiring. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq surging 3.55% with average volume. Chart 2 shows the NY Composite surging 3.5% with...
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FINANCIALS SURGE ON BAD BANK IDEA -- XLF AND RKH GAP HIGHER -- CITIGROUP, BANK OF AMERICA AND WELLS SURGE - BROKERS OUTPERFORMING BANKS - POINT & FIGURE SETTINGS -- TARGETS AND REVERSAL MARKERS FOR SPX AND NDX
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCIALS LEAD BROAD MARKET ADVANCE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
In early trading on Wednesday, financial stocks led the market higher as investors embraced the "bad bank" idea. Bloomberg reported that President Obama was nearing a deal to create a bad...
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GOLD STILL HAS MORE RESISTANCE BARRIERS TO OVERCOME -- WHY GOLD CAN BE A DEFLATION HEDGE -- GOLD STRENGTH HINTS AT DOLLAR WEAKNESS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD STILL HAS MORE BARRIERS TO OVERCOME... I've gotten a lot of questions about the recent upturn in gold. I'll try to answer some of them here. I wrote on Friday that gold had "broken out" to a three-month high and had exceeded its...
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HEALTHCARE IS TOP DEFENSIVE SECTOR -- LEADERS INCLUDE BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB, SCHERING PLOUGH, UNITEDHEALTH, AND MYLAN LABS -- MCKESSON AND ST JUDE MEDICAL GAP HIGHER -- HEALTHCARE SPDR NEARS TEST OF JANUARY HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HEATLHCARE RS LINE HITS NEW HIGH ... Over the last year, the three top performing market sectors have been consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities (in that order). Although all three have lost money, they've lost a lost less than the market as a whole. That's perfectly normal...
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GOING FOR THE GOLD -- BULLION BREAKS OUT -- BARRICK AND NEWMONT EXCEED 200-DAY AVERAGES -- TIPS GAIN GROUND ON TREASURY BONDS -- MCCELLAN OSCILLATOR TURNS NEGATIVE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD HITS THREE MONTH HIGH ... The gold market is starting to attract a lot of attention and money. Chart 1 shows the streetTracks Gold Trust ETF (GLD) jumping $36 dollars today. In so doing, it has decisively cleared the falling resistance drawn over the July/October highs. And it did...
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VOLATILITY REIGNS SUPREME -- DOW BATTLES SUPPORT AT 8000 -- USING STOCHRSI TO IDENTIFY THE SWINGS -- AN INVERSE HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS FOR DIA? -- BONDS FALL SHARPY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW CONTINUES ITS SWINGING WAYS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials since early October. Despite a number of big swings the last few months, the average is currently trading near the October lows. Essentially, the Dow has gone...
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DOWNSIDE BREADTH STRONGER THAN UPSIDE BREADTH -- NEW 52-WEEK LOWS STILL OUTPACING NEW 52-WEEK HIGHS -- VOLUME LEVELS REMAIN UNINSPIRING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BREADTH LAGS ON BOUNCE ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
The stock market surged on Wednesday, but a look under the hood shows lagging breadth and uninspiring volume. Before getting into the analysis, let's review some key breadth indicators. Charts 1 and...
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SPY AND QQQQ FORM HARAMI PATTERNS -- FINANCIALS LEAD RECOVERY BOUNCE -- SURGING OIL BOOSTS XLE AND OIH -- MARKET CARPET SEES RED IN 2009 -- CONSUMER STAPLES SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPY AND QQQQ FORM INSIDE DAYS ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
After a long black candlestick and sharp decline on Tuesday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) formed inside days on Wednesday. Taken together, the candlesticks of...
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STOCKS SUFFER WORST INAUGURATION DAY DROP IN HISTORY -- A RETEST OF NOVEMBER LOWS APPEARS LIKELY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NYSE INDEX LOSES 6% ON RISING VOLUME... According to Bloomberg, today's stock drop was the biggest loss in inauguration day history. Chart 1 shows the NYSE Composite Index losing 6% and ending at the lowest close since early December (as did all of the other major stock indexes)...
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PLUNGE IN BANK SHARES PULLS REST OF THE MARKET LOWER -- TODAY'S ONLY WINNERS ARE THE DOLLAR, YEN, AND GOLD -- A RISING VIX IS SOMETHING ELSE FOR STOCKS TO WORRY ABOUT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BANKS PLUNGE TO NEW LOWS... The plunge in European bank shares on Monday spilled over to U.S. trading today. Chart 1 shows the PHLX Bank Index falling near 15% to a new low. Financials and consumer discretionary are among the day's biggest losers. Other big losers include...
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EUROPEAN MARKETS FALL ON MONDAY ALONG WITH US STOCK FUTURES -- INTERMARKET RELATIONSHIPS STILL PAINT A NEGATIVE PICTURE FOR STOCKS AND COMMODITIES AS A RISING DOLLAR HURTS BOTH -- CORPORATE BONDS PLAY CATCH-UP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EUROPEAN MARKETS FALL ... Although U.S. markets are closed for the Martin Luther King holiday, foreign markets are open. And, unfortunately, most of them are dropping. That includes Brazil, Canada, and Europe. Stocks fell in all 18 western European markets. A catalyst for European weakness was a 67% plunge in...
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BEWARE OF SHORT-TERM WHIPSAWS -- USE LONG-TERM CHARTS TO FILTER DAILY SIGNALS -- MORE BOND ETFS ARE BOUNCING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
OTHER BOND CATEGORIES ARE BOUNCING... I recently wrote about how investment grade corporate bonds were starting to gain some ground on Treasury bonds. Today, I'm adding two other bond categories to that list. The flat line in Chart 1 is the 20+Year Treasury Bond iShares (TLT) which...
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TECHS LEAD REBOUND -- QQQQ BATTLES SUPPORT - A FEEBLE RETRACEMENT RALLY -- LONG-TERM SUPPORT FOR SPY -- EURO HITS SUPPORT AS DOLLAR HITS RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TECHS LEAD MARKET REBOUND ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
After plunging the first two hours of trading, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) firmed and then surged higher in the afternoon. Chart 1 shows QQQQ swing over 4% from low to high during the...
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DIA AND SPY BREAK SUPPORT -- DECLINE IN RETAIL SALES HITS RETAIL ETFS -- FINANCIALS STILL LEADING LOWER -- SECTOR LAGGARDS IN JANUARY - DOW THEORY WITH A TWIST -- ENERGY IS BIGGER THAN FINANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DIA AND SPY BREAK SUPPORT... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
A broad decline in stocks pushed the Dow Industrials ETF (DIA) and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) below their late-December lows. All sectors were down with financials and energy leading the...
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THE DOLLAR AND YEN CONTINUE TO GAIN GROUND WHICH IS KEEPING GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES UNDER PRESSURE -- THE RISING YEN, HOWEVER, DOESN'T HELP JAPANESE STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FLIGHT TO DOLLAR AND YEN ... I wrote yesterday that this week's rebound in the US Dollar Index and the Japanese Yen were negative signs for commodities and stocks. Charts 1 and 2 show the Dollar and the yen rising again today. The rising dollar is keeping downward pressure...
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CURRENCY TRENDS SHOW THAT MARKETS ARE STILL RISK AVERSE -- A BOUNCING DOLLAR HURTS COMMODITIES AND A RISING YEN IS BAD FOR STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RISING DOLLAR PRESSURES GOLD AND STOCKS... Last Friday, I wrote about how a rising dollar was putting downward pressure on most commodity markets and gold in particular. I showed gold backing off from its 200-day moving average while the US Dollar Index was bouncing off its 200-day line. That inverse...
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INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATE BONDS ARE GAINING SOME GROUND ON TREASURIES -- BOUNCING DOLLAR KEEPS GOLD IN CHECK -- THE VIX HAS REACHED A POTENTIAL SUPPORT LEVEL WHICH MAY REMOVE BULLISH PROP FROM STOCKS -- MARKET FAILS FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY TEST
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CORPORATE BONDS ARE STARTING TO RECOVER... During the second half of 2008, Treasury Bonds were the top performing fixed income group as investors fled to safety. Other bond categories actually lost ground including corporate bonds. There are signs that some bond money is starting to flow into that other bond...
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SMALL-CAPS AND TECHS REBOUND -- WARNING HITS WAL-MART -- RETAIL HOLDRS FAIL AT RESISTANCE -- WAL-MART WEIGHS ON CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR -- POCKETS OF STRENGTH AMONG RETAILERS - BONDS FIRM AHEAD OF EMPLOYMENT REPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS FIRM AFTER WEAK OPEN... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
The Wal-Mart warning reverberated throughout the stock market as the major indices opened lower on Thursday. Despite this lower open, trading quickly turned mixed and most of the major-index ETFs ended with small...
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QQQQ GAPS DOWN AND STAYS DOWN -- SPY FORMS RISING WEDGE PATTERN -- FINANCIALS LAG BROADER MARKET -- JP MORGAN BREAKS TRIANGLE SUPPORT -- WELL FARGO LEADS LOWER -- GOLD FALLS DESPITE WEAK DOLLAR -- OIL PLUNGES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
QQQQ GAPS DOWN ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
Led by weakness in the technology sector, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) gapped down and stayed down on Wednesday. Chart 1 shows daily candlesticks over the last four months. QQQQ has been working its way...
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MCCLELLAN INDICATORS SHOW IMPROVEMENT IN MARKET BREADTH -- AIRLINES CONTINUE TO SHOW MARKET LEADERSHIP -- AIRLINE LEADERS ARE JETBLUE AND CONTINENTAL -- BOUNCE IN T-BILL AND T-BOND RATES SHOWS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR REACHES NEW HIGH... A couple of readers have asked what the implications are for the current high reading in the McClellan Oscillator. For those not familiar with it, this breadth indicator is based on the difference between the 19-day and 39-day exponential moving averages of net advances versus...
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2009 GETS OFF TO A POSITIVE START -- STOCKS AND COMMODITIES RALLY WHILE BONDS AND THE DOLLAR PULL BACK -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS DO BETTER THAN STAPLES AT YEAREND-- AS JANUARY GOES SO GOES THE YEAR
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
INTERMARKET TRENDS TURN MORE POSITIVE ... Chart 1 shows how the interaction between the four main asset classes unfolded during 2008 and how they're entering 2009. The two weakest assets were commodities and stocks. The two strongest were Treasury bonds and the dollar. During the first half of the...
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QQQQ EXTENDS ITS POST-SURGE CONSOLIDATION -- XLF AND XLK FORM PENNANTS -- BONDS ARE THE BIG WINNERS FOR 2008 -- OIL IS THE BIG LOSER -- GOLD DIVERGES FROM OTHER COMMODITIES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
QQQQ REMAINS IN CONSOLIDATION MODE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) continues to consolidate after the late-November surge. Chart 1 shows the ETF surging above 28 in late November and then consolidating the last four weeks (December). Most of...
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CONSUMER STAPLES AND HEALTHCARE ARE DEFENSIVE MARKET LEADERS -- BIG PHARMA LEADERS ARE BMY, SGP, AND PFE -- RETAIL STOCKS ARE DOING OKAY IN SPITE OF BAD NEWS -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR IS HELPING LEAD MARKET HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HEALTHCARE AND STAPLES ARE DEFENSIVE LEADERS ... Arthur Hill and myself have noted several times this past year that defensive sectors like consumer staples and healthcare have been market leaders. That's normal during a bear market and recession. This time last year (December 28, 2007), I wrote a message...
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HOPES FOR SANTA CLAUS RALLY FADE -- MIDEAST VIOLENCE WEAKENS DOLLAR AND BOOSTS GOLD AND OIL -- CHEMICALS TAKE BIGGEST HIT -- 13 AND 34 DAY EMAS ARE STILL NEGATIVE -- HOURLY BARS SHOW THREE-WEEK TRADING RANGE STILL INTACT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CHEMICALS FALL HARD ... Dow Chemical and Rohm and Haas fell especially hard today on news that funding for their merger was in trouble. The two chemical stocks lost -20% and -15% respectively. Chemicals as a group lost 5% and were the day's biggest losers. Charts 1 and 2...
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