STOCKS FALL IN HEAVY TRADING ... Stocks have sold off in heavy trading after details of the new bailout plan were released. The hourly bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 SPDRS tumbling more than 3% in heavy trading. It's important to note that the recent... READ MORE
MACD LINES SHOW SOME PROMISE ... Another reader complained this week that we failed to point out the "negative divergence" in the daily MACD lines during January prior to the latest downturn. The reason I didn't point it out was because none existed. In fact, it may... READ MORE
GOLD IS RISING AGAINST ALL CURRENCIES... One of our readers complained to me this week that we haven't provided any actionable ideas since the start of the new year. How about gold? We've written a number of positive articles on that commodity over the past couple... READ MORE
NASDAQ SURGES OVER 2%... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor It was a wild day on Wall Street as stocks opened weak and then staged an impressive advance with above average volume. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq with a long white candlestick that closed... READ MORE
GOLD AND THE EURO DIVERGE ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor Contrary to historical tendencies, gold and the Euro appear to be going their separate ways. There has historically been a negative correlation between the U.S. Dollar and gold. The Dollar advances as... READ MORE
SPY REMAINS RANGE BOUND... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor Indecision continues to grip the stock market as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) trades within a tightening range. Chart 1 shows SPY trading on either side of 85 since 10-Oct (blue dotted... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE GIVES MARKET A BOOST ... On January 27, I wrote about upside leadership coming from healthcare stocks, and suggested that more of that could provide some support for the rest of the market. That's certainly the case today. Better than expected earnings from Merck and Schering Plough are... READ MORE
GOING FOR THE GOLD ... With stocks falling again this week, and Treasury bond prices tumbling, investors turned to gold as a safe haven. Chart 1 shows bullion closing jumping $22 on Friday to end at $928 which puts it right up against its October intra-day peak at $936. On a... READ MORE
VOLUME FAILS TO INSPIRE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor Despite a big advance on Wednesday, Nasdaq and NYSE volume levels were uninspiring. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq surging 3.55% with average volume. Chart 2 shows the NY Composite surging 3.5% with... READ MORE
FINANCIALS LEAD BROAD MARKET ADVANCE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor In early trading on Wednesday, financial stocks led the market higher as investors embraced the "bad bank" idea. Bloomberg reported that President Obama was nearing a deal to create a bad... READ MORE
GOLD STILL HAS MORE BARRIERS TO OVERCOME... I've gotten a lot of questions about the recent upturn in gold. I'll try to answer some of them here. I wrote on Friday that gold had "broken out" to a three-month high and had exceeded its... READ MORE
HEATLHCARE RS LINE HITS NEW HIGH ... Over the last year, the three top performing market sectors have been consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities (in that order). Although all three have lost money, they've lost a lost less than the market as a whole. That's perfectly normal... READ MORE
GOLD HITS THREE MONTH HIGH ... The gold market is starting to attract a lot of attention and money. Chart 1 shows the streetTracks Gold Trust ETF (GLD) jumping $36 dollars today. In so doing, it has decisively cleared the falling resistance drawn over the July/October highs. And it did... READ MORE
DOW CONTINUES ITS SWINGING WAYS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials since early October. Despite a number of big swings the last few months, the average is currently trading near the October lows. Essentially, the Dow has gone... READ MORE
BREADTH LAGS ON BOUNCE ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor The stock market surged on Wednesday, but a look under the hood shows lagging breadth and uninspiring volume. Before getting into the analysis, let's review some key breadth indicators. Charts 1 and... READ MORE
SPY AND QQQQ FORM INSIDE DAYS ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor After a long black candlestick and sharp decline on Tuesday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) formed inside days on Wednesday. Taken together, the candlesticks of... READ MORE
NYSE INDEX LOSES 6% ON RISING VOLUME... According to Bloomberg, today's stock drop was the biggest loss in inauguration day history. Chart 1 shows the NYSE Composite Index losing 6% and ending at the lowest close since early December (as did all of the other major stock indexes)... READ MORE
BANKS PLUNGE TO NEW LOWS... The plunge in European bank shares on Monday spilled over to U.S. trading today. Chart 1 shows the PHLX Bank Index falling near 15% to a new low. Financials and consumer discretionary are among the day's biggest losers. Other big losers include... READ MORE
EUROPEAN MARKETS FALL ... Although U.S. markets are closed for the Martin Luther King holiday, foreign markets are open. And, unfortunately, most of them are dropping. That includes Brazil, Canada, and Europe. Stocks fell in all 18 western European markets. A catalyst for European weakness was a 67% plunge in... READ MORE
OTHER BOND CATEGORIES ARE BOUNCING... I recently wrote about how investment grade corporate bonds were starting to gain some ground on Treasury bonds. Today, I'm adding two other bond categories to that list. The flat line in Chart 1 is the 20+Year Treasury Bond iShares (TLT) which... READ MORE
TECHS LEAD MARKET REBOUND ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor After plunging the first two hours of trading, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) firmed and then surged higher in the afternoon. Chart 1 shows QQQQ swing over 4% from low to high during the... READ MORE
DIA AND SPY BREAK SUPPORT... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor A broad decline in stocks pushed the Dow Industrials ETF (DIA) and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) below their late-December lows. All sectors were down with financials and energy leading the... READ MORE
FLIGHT TO DOLLAR AND YEN ... I wrote yesterday that this week's rebound in the US Dollar Index and the Japanese Yen were negative signs for commodities and stocks. Charts 1 and 2 show the Dollar and the yen rising again today. The rising dollar is keeping downward pressure... READ MORE
RISING DOLLAR PRESSURES GOLD AND STOCKS... Last Friday, I wrote about how a rising dollar was putting downward pressure on most commodity markets and gold in particular. I showed gold backing off from its 200-day moving average while the US Dollar Index was bouncing off its 200-day line. That inverse... READ MORE
CORPORATE BONDS ARE STARTING TO RECOVER... During the second half of 2008, Treasury Bonds were the top performing fixed income group as investors fled to safety. Other bond categories actually lost ground including corporate bonds. There are signs that some bond money is starting to flow into that other bond... READ MORE
STOCKS FIRM AFTER WEAK OPEN... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor The Wal-Mart warning reverberated throughout the stock market as the major indices opened lower on Thursday. Despite this lower open, trading quickly turned mixed and most of the major-index ETFs ended with small... READ MORE
QQQQ GAPS DOWN ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor Led by weakness in the technology sector, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) gapped down and stayed down on Wednesday. Chart 1 shows daily candlesticks over the last four months. QQQQ has been working its way... READ MORE
MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR REACHES NEW HIGH... A couple of readers have asked what the implications are for the current high reading in the McClellan Oscillator. For those not familiar with it, this breadth indicator is based on the difference between the 19-day and 39-day exponential moving averages of net advances versus... READ MORE
INTERMARKET TRENDS TURN MORE POSITIVE ... Chart 1 shows how the interaction between the four main asset classes unfolded during 2008 and how they're entering 2009. The two weakest assets were commodities and stocks. The two strongest were Treasury bonds and the dollar. During the first half of the... READ MORE
QQQQ REMAINS IN CONSOLIDATION MODE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) continues to consolidate after the late-November surge. Chart 1 shows the ETF surging above 28 in late November and then consolidating the last four weeks (December). Most of... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE AND STAPLES ARE DEFENSIVE LEADERS ... Arthur Hill and myself have noted several times this past year that defensive sectors like consumer staples and healthcare have been market leaders. That's normal during a bear market and recession. This time last year (December 28, 2007), I wrote a message... READ MORE
CHEMICALS FALL HARD ... Dow Chemical and Rohm and Haas fell especially hard today on news that funding for their merger was in trouble. The two chemical stocks lost -20% and -15% respectively. Chemicals as a group lost 5% and were the day's biggest losers. Charts 1 and 2... READ MORE
SANTA CLAUS RALLY ... You've probably been hearing and reading a lot lately about the so-called "Santa Claus rally". The term is often used to describe any market bounce that takes place during December (which is usually one of the strongest months of the year). There is,... READ MORE
VOLUME THINS AS HOLIDAY MODE HITS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor Volume levels on the NYSE and Nasdaq were below average on Monday and Tuesday. Low volume is typical for the period between Christmas and New Year's. In addition to these... READ MORE
DOLLAR BOUNCE CAUSES PROFIT-TAKING IN GOLD ... After falling sharply all week, the Dollar Index bounced on Friday from potential chart support near its 200-day moving average. That caused profit-taking in gold at a time when bullion was testing its own 200-day average and a resistance line drawn over its July/... READ MORE
MORE STOCKS TRADE OVER 50-DAY AVERAGES... Last Friday, I showed an indicator that measures the % NYSE stocks trading over their 50-day moving average. At the time, the reading was only 30%. With most stock indexes having cleared that resistance barrier this week, the number of stocks trading over their 50-day... READ MORE
BONDS GO BALLISTIC... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The surge in bonds over the last seven weeks is truly staggering. The iShares 20+ Year Bond ETF (TLT) is up some 30% from its November low. On Tuesday, the... READ MORE
FOCUS SHIFTS AWAY FROM SHORT-TERM RATES... The Fed cut its short-term Fed funds rate to "a target range" between zero and .25 today. More importantly, it announced that it was ready to take more aggressive steps to do whatever is required to get the economy moving again. That... READ MORE
BONDS AND STOCKS DECOUPLE ... With fears of deflation growing, I thought it a good time to review some of my previous writing on that subject and to explain what happens in a deflationary environment. Most traditional intermarket relationships remain the same, but some don't. My 1991 book entitled... READ MORE
% OF NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 50 MA... With all the recent focus on the major market indexes testing their 50-day moving averages, I thought it a good time to look at another indicator that measures the % of NYSE stocks that are trading above their 50-day averages. Chart 1 shows that indicator... READ MORE