Members Only

MEMBERS ONLY

STAPLES AND HEALTHCARE SPDRS BREAK RESISTANCE -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR TESTS 200-DAY AVERAGE -- SOME STOCKS IN THAT GROUP HAVE ALREADY BOTTOMED -- CRB INDEX TESTS SPRING LOW -- RUSSELL 2000 IS TESTING ITS JUN HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TWO SECTOR LEADERS ARE STAPLES AND HEALTHCARE ... Until proven otherwise, the two strongest market sectors are still consumer staples and healthcare. And both are defensive categories. Chart 1 shows the Consumer Staples Select SPDR) trading at a new eight month high after breaking through its spring high. It's...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SECTOR ROTATION STUDY SHOWS CONSUMER STAPLES AND HEALTHCARE STILL IN THE LEAD -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE HAS IMPROVED, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SIGNAL A MAJOR TURN FOR THE BETTER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MORE ON SECTOR ROTATIONS... I keep getting questions on where we stand on the matter of sector rotation. We've pointed out repeatedly that defensive stock groups like consumer staples and healthcare have become new market leaders. That makes sense in a slowing economy. Earlier in the week, however,...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR HITS 2008 HIGH --PROCTER & GAMBLE IS A DEFENSIVE LEADER -- RAIL SELLING WEAKENS THE TRANSPORTS --JP MORGAN FALLS 10% TO LEAD FINANCIALS AND THE MARKET LOWER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR TURNS UP ... Despite recent signs of improvement in economically-sensitive groups like consumer disretionary stocks, investors still show a preference for more defensive consumer staples. These are stocks that do okay in good times and bad and don't rely on the state of the business cycle....   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND SMALL CAPS HAVE STRONG DAY -- GOLD BREAKS MAJOR SUPPORT -- S&P 500 CLEARS 50-DAY LINE -- RECENT UPSIDE LEADERSHIP INCREASES ODDS THAT MARKET IS BOTTOMING -- US MARKET IS NOW OUTPERFORMING FOREIGN SHARES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RETAIL BUYING BOOSTS CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS ... On Friday, I wrote about signs of improvement in the consumer discretionary sector which has been benefiting from falling oil prices. I suggested that most of the improvement was coming from homebuilders and retailers. That was certainly true today with both groups having very...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

BULLISH DOLLAR BREAKOUT COINCIDES WITH EURO DOUBLE TOP -- THAT'S KEEPING DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON COMMODITIES -- RISING DOLLAR MAY BE HELPING SMALL CAPS -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS ARE DOING BETTER -- HOMEBUILDERS LOOK SOLD OUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EURO COMPLETES DOUBLE TOP ... One of the main intermarket factors behind the recent plunge in commodity markets has been new strength in the U.S. Dollar. That's because commodity prices and the U.S. Dollar trend in opposite directions. In fact, the bull market in commodities since 2002...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

QQQQ BREAKS RESISTANCE -- BONDS PUSH INTEREST RATES HIGHER -- HEALTHCARE SPDR SURGES HIGHER -- CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR BREAKS 200-DAY -- FINANCIAL AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDRS HIT RETRACEMENTS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQQ MAKES A BREAKOUT BID... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor Last week I wrote about relative weakness in the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) and its inability to break resistance. Chart 1 shows a change afoot. After a sharp...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

FED LEAVES RATES ALONE AS EXPECTED -- RECENT COMMODITY DROP SHOULD ALLEVIATE INFLATION CONCERNS -- FIRM DOLLAR HURTS GOLD -- FINANCIALS, RETAILERS, AND AIRLINES LEAD MARKET BOUNCE -- DESPITE SHORT-TERM IMPROVEMENT, NO CONVINCING SIGNS OF A BOTTOM YET

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COMMODITY DROP SHOULD EASE INFLATION ... The Fed left the short-term rate unchanged at 2% today as expected. It did, however, cite growing inflation concerns along with a weakening economy. That's a bad combination. Most of the inflation increases, however, have come from rising commodities. With commodity markets in...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

COMMODITIES AND THEIR RELATED STOCKS CONTINUE TO DROP -- GOLD AND OIL SERVICE INDEXES BREAK SUPPORT -- COPPER DROP HURTS FCX -- JOHNSON & JOHNSON HITS NEW RECORD AND LEADS DRUGS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ALL COMMODITIES ARE IN THE RED ... The CRB Index is trading 12 points lower today with all seventeen commodities in the red. Chart 1 shows the DB Commodities ETF (DBC) falling to a three-month low. The other charts show losses in energy (Chart 2), precious metals (Chart 3), agriculture (Chart...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

BAD ECONOMIC NEWS IS LATE AS USUAL -- LOW PUT-CALL RATIO IS BEARISH WARNING -- SENTIMENT INDICATOR SHOWS IMPROVEMENT BUT NO UPTREND -- WHY I PREFER ETFS TO INDIVIDUAL STOCKS -- RAILS AND TRUCKERS WEIGH ON TRANSPORTS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ECONOMISTS ARE LATE AS USUAL... In a recent Market Message, I discussed how the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy and why it isn't a good idea to use economic forecasting to trade the stock market. Historically, the market turns down at least six months...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

QQQQ AND TECHNOLOGY ARE LAGGING -- QQQQ REMAINS BELOW RESISTANCE -- SURGING OIL LIFTS OVERSOLD ENERGY ETFS -- LONG-TERM TRENDS FOR ENERGY ETFS REMAIN UP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

QQQQ SHOWS RELATIVE WEAKNESS ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The stock market bottomed on 15 July and surged over the last 11 trading days. Despite this big surge, performance has been unequal among the major index ETFs. Chart...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

FALLING OIL BOOSTS AIRLINES -- SOUTHWEST REMAINS AIRLINE LEADER -- BIOTECHS HAVE BEEN JULY'S STRONGEST GROUP -- AMGEN HAS BEEN A BIOTECH LEADER FOR NEARLY A MONTH -- A STRONGER DOLLAR IS HURTING COMMODITIES AND HELPING STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

OIL RESUMES DOWNTREND... A bounce in the dollar today is causing more selling in commodities. Gold, grains, and oil are all falling as a result. A $3 drop in the price of crude has pushed the United States Oil ETF (Chart 1) below its early June low near 100 and...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

A LOOK AT FOREIGN STOCK ETFS -- EMERGING MARKET ETF IS HOLDING ABOVE ITS MARCH LOW -- FALLING OIL PRICES ARE HURTING BRAZIL AND RUSSIA BUT HELPING TO STABILIZE CHINA AND INDIA -- MEDCO HEALTH SOLUTIONS TURNS UP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

A LOOK AT FOREIGN ETFS... One of our readers asked me to take a look at foreign ETFs. So here they are. Chart 1 shows the EAFE iShares (EFA) having lost 23% from their November peak. That puts them in bear market territory. The EFA chart doesn't look...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

HEALTHCARE CONTINUES TO ATTRACT NEW MONEY -- BIOGEN IDEC AND JOHNSON & JOHNSON ARE LEADERS -- THREE NEW ONES ARE ABC, BCR, AND VAR -- HOUSING AND FINANCIAL GROUPS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- DOW BACKS OFF FROM INITIAL RESISTANCE BARRIERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTHCARE SPDR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH ... Healthcare remains the only defensive group showing relative strength. Chart 1 shows the Health Care SPDR (XLV) moving up to challenge its spring highs. Its relative strength line (below chart) is much more impressive. The RS turned up during May (when the last market rally...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

RUSSELL 2000 REACHES 200-DAY -- A LONG-TERM HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS FOR THE DOW UTILITIES -- MATERIALS SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- STEEL ETF BREAKS 200-DAY -- LOOKING AT RETRACEMENTS IN THE LAST BEAR MARKET

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RUSSELL 2000 SURGES TO 200-DAY ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The Russell 2000 surged to its 200-day moving average with an extremely sharp move over the last seven days. This small-cap index showed less weakness by holding above...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

AIRLINES AND FINANCIALS LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- AMR, CAL, AND LUV BOUNCE OFF LONG-TERM SUPPORT LINES -- SOUTHWEST IS UPSIDE LEADER --AIRLINE RALLY MAY BE ANOTHER SIGN THAT OIL HAS PEAKED

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

AIRLINE INDEX CLEARS 50-DAY LINE ... Another possible sign that oil prices have peaked was today's spectular rally in airline shares. Chart 1 shows the AMEX Airline Index (XAL) jumping 22% today to make it day's strongest group by far. In addition, the XAL clearled its 50-day...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

MOST COMMODITIES ARE IN CORRECTIONS -- GOLD MAY ALSO BE VULNERABLE AS DOLLAR ETF BOUNCES OFF MARCH LOW -- A POTENTIAL BOTTOM IN US BOND YIELDS MAY HELP STABILIZE THE DOLLAR -- THAT COULD PUT THE COMMODITY UPTREND IN JEOPARDY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ENERGY IS THE LAST COMMODITY GROUP TO ROLL OVER ... I've gotten a lot of questions regarding my article last week about commodities having entered into a downside correction. One reader asked if there were any commodity ETFs in existence. There are several of them. Chart 1 shows the...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

COMMODITIES MAY HAVE PEAKED FOR NOW -- WEEKLY AND MONTHY CHARTS SHOW OVERBOUGHT COMMODITIES IN NEED OF A CORRECTION -- COMMODITIES ARE TOO HIGH RELATIVE TO STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SHORT-TERM SELL SIGNALS GIVEN ... This week's downturn in crude oil prices has had a depressing effect on the entire commodity group. Chart 1 shows the CRB Index (plotted through Thursday) breaking a three-month up trendline (and its 50-day moving average). The 12-day Rate of Change (ROC) line (top...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

ANOTHER OIL DROP BOOSTS MARKET -- ENERGY SPDR BREAKS 200-DAY LINE -- FINANCIALS AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS LEAD REBOUND -- NASDAQ AND RUSSELL 2000 BOUNCE OFF MARCH LOWS -- MOVING AVERAGE TREND IS STILL DOWN BUT IMPROVING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CRUDE OIL BREAKS SUPPORT... On Tuesday I suggested that the downside correction in energy shares warned of possible weakening in the price of crude. The drop in energy shares became more serious today. So did the drop in crude. Crude oil fell another $4.91 (-3.6%) today. Chart 1...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

RUSSELL 2000 AND NASDAQ LEAD REBOUND -- FINANCIAL AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTORS GET BIG OVERSOLD BOUNCES -- SURGING CPI WEIGHS ON BONDS -- DOW THEORY REMAINS ON SELL SIGNAL

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS AND TECHS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor It has been a tale of two markets over the last few months. On one side, the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 were weighed down...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

ENERGY STOCKS CORRECT FURTHER -- THAT MAY HINT AT OIL WEAKNESS -- DEFENSIVE LEADERSHIP STILL FAVORS STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, AND UTILITIES -- NO SIGN OF A BOTTOM YET IN FINANCIALS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ENERGY STOCKS CONTINUE DOWNSIDE CORRECTION ... A big drop in energy prices made energy the day's weakest sector. Actually, energy stocks have been correcting for the past two weeks. Chart 1 shows that the Energy SPDR (XLE) broke its 50-day average a couple of weeks back on heavy volume....   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

MARKET OFF TO ANOTHER BAD START -- FOREIGN CURRENCIES SURGE AGAINST DOLLAR -- BIOTECHS AND DRUGS CONTINUE TO ATTACT DEFENSIVE MONEY -- DNA BOOSTS BIOTECH HOLDERS -- ABT AND JNJ ARE BIG PHARMA LEADERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FOREIGN CURRENCIES JUMP ... The U.S. Dollar is coming under a lot of pressure. The most significant drop is against the Euro which touched a new record today (Chart 1). In fact, all major currencies are rallying against the dollar. Charts 2 through 4 show upturns in the British Pound,...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

FINANCIALS LEAD MARKET LOWER AGAIN -- S&P 500 EMA TREND IS STILL DOWN -- GOLD STOCK ETF BREAKS OUT -- CELGENE AND GENZYME ARE BIOTECH LEADERS -- VIX STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SIGNAL A BOTTOM

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

REGIONAL BANKS TUMBLE ... The rout in financial shares continues. Chart 1 shows Bank Regional Holders tumbling to the lowest level in six years. That contributed to more big losses in the entire financial sector. Chart 2 shows the RHK bearing down on its 2002 lows. As has been suggested herein...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

THE LONG-TERM PICTURE FOR DIA, SPY AND QQQQ -- BREADTH REMAINS WEAK AND WITHOUT A DIVERGENCE -- XLF APPROACHES ITS 2002-2003 LOWS -- ITB STILL UNDERPERFORMING -- BIOTECHS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TAKING A BIG STEP BACK... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return next week. - Editor The stock market is oversold, but just getting even more oversold. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials ETF (DIA) moving to a new low for 2008. The...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

QQQQ AND IWM MANAGE TO FIRM -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR AND RETAIL SPDR RECORD NEW LOWS -- GOLD SURGES AS DOLLAR SAGS - SECTOR PERFORMANCE SINCE THE OCTOBER AND MAY HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TO BOUNCE OR NOT TO BOUNCE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return next week. - Editor The major indices surged on Tuesday, pulled back sharply on Wednesday and then firmed on Thursday. Needless to say, there is a serious tug-o-war underway between...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

STOCKS GET COLD FEET -- FINANCIALS ABOUT FACE AND LEAD THE WAY LOWER - HEALTHCARE SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH -- USING STOCHASTICS WITH THE SECTOR CARPET

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EASY COME EASY GO ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return next week. - Editor After a big rebound in the financial sector on Tuesday, stocks got cold feet on Wednesday and retreated. The major indices closed sharply lower with small-caps and techs...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

MAJOR INDEX ETFS REBOUND -- IWM AND QQQQ LEAD -- GENTLE BEN FIRES UP FINANCIALS -- U.S. DOLLAR INDEX GETS A BOUNCE -- OIL FALLS FOR SECOND DAY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TECHS AND SMALL-CAPS LEAD MARKET REBOUND ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return next week. - Editor The stock market rebounded on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) leading the charge. IWM surged over 3%, while...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

DEFENSIVE LEADERS ARE KROGER, AMGEN, AND EXELON -- SECTOR ROTATION MODEL FAVORS STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, AND UTILITIES -- WITH MATERIALS PEAKING, ENERGY STOCKS MAY BE VULNERABLE -- WEAK ECONOMIC NEWS IS CONFIRMING WHAT THE MARKET TOLD US SIX MONTHS AGO

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DEFENSIVE STOCK LEADERS ... Arthur Hill pointed out again yesterday that defensive groups like consumer staples, healthchare, and utilities have been attracting new money over the past month. By using our Sector Market Carpet, I've isolated a leading stock in each of those three groups. They should offer some...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

RUSSELL 2000 AND SMALL-CAPS LEAD BROAD DECLINE -- MATERIALS SECTOR BREAKS DOWN -- STEEL STOCKS FEEL THE HEAT -- RAILROADS LEAD THE DOW TRANSPORTS SHARPLY LOWER -- DEFENSIVE SECTORS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALL-CAPS LEAD THE MARKET LOWER ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The Russell 2000 led the market lower on Wednesday as selling intensified in small-caps. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 relative to the S&P 100, which...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

FRANCE AND GERMANY ARE IN BEAR MARKETS -- COMMODITY EXPORTERS HOLD UP WHILE IMPORTERS FALL -- GOLD ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- FEDEX AND UPS HIT MULTI-YEAR LOWS -- LOW VIX AND CPC READINGS SUGGEST MORE SELLING TO COME

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

THE FALL OF EUROPE... European markets have done even worse than the U.S. Of the three biggest countries there, the weakest have been France and Germany. Chart 1 shows the CAC-40 trading 28% off last year's high. Today's drop put the French market at a...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

MARKET DROP IS JUST SHY OF AN OFFICIAL BEAR MARKET AS S&P 500 RETESTS MARCH LOW -- OVERSOLD MARKET MAY GET A JULY 4 BOUNCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARKET HASN'T REACHED 20% THRESHOLD YET... A lot was made in the media over the weekend about the Dow Industrials having lost 20% from its October peak which is bear market territory. It is true that a 20% drop from a previous peak qualifies as an "official&...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

MONEY ROTATES TOWARD DEFENSIVE GROUPS -- GOLD STOCKS ARE WEEK'S TOP GROUP -- LONG-TERM CHARTS SHOW STOCKS STILL IN A MAJOR BEAR MARKET

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MONEY MOVES TOWARD DEFENSIVE GROUPS ... It's no secret that the market's weakest groups have been financials and consumer discretionary stocks that include autos, homebuilders, and retailers. Those groups have been leading the market lower. It's interesting to see where some money has been going...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

GENERAL MOTORS PLUNGES TO TWO-DECADE LOW -- RESEARCH IN MOTION TUMBLES 12%

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

US AUTOMAKERS LOOK SICK ... One of our readers asked how the chart of General Motors looked. Rather than analyzing it, I'm just going to show it to you. The chart doesn't need any explanation. Today's 11% plunge in GM has pushed the stock to...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

DOW HITS TWO-YEAR LOW AS GM AND FINANCIALS LEAD IT LOWER -- RIMM LEADS BIG SELLOFF IN NASDAQ 100 -- TIPS LEAD BOND BOUNCE -- FALLING DOLLAR GIVES BIG BOOST TO GOLD AND OTHER COMMODITIES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW BREAKS MARCH LOW -- NASDAQ 100 TUMBLES ... The market is under heavy selling pressure today. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading below its March low which is the lowest level in nearly two years. Other big board indexes are bearing down on their March lows. Autos and financials...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

BOND YIELDS PREDICT FED POLICY -- CHEMICAL STOCKS AND PROFITS UNDER PRESSURE -- USO HOLDS THE GAP -- XLE FORMS TRIANGLE -- RUSSELL 2000 BREAKS SUPPORT -- SMALL-CAPS VERSUS LARGE-CAPS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor As widely expected, the Fed left the federal funds rate and the discount rate unchanged. Inflationary pressures were cited for the decision. Way back in August, the Fed began...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SAME OLD STORY -- FALLING FINANCIALS AND RISING OIL HURT MARKET -- FINANCIALS ARE PULLING THE DOW DOWN -- OIL SERVICE AND NATURAL GAS ETFS HIT NEW HIGHS -- STEEL STOCKS HAVE STRONG DAY -- UTILITIES ARE BOUNCING WHILE TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCIALS WEIGH ON DOW ... One of our readers asked why the Dow is acting so much worse than the Nasdaq 100. Chart 1 shows the disparity. While the Dow is nearing a test of its March low, the Powershares QQQ Trust (QQQQ) has held up much better. To answer that...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

STOCKS ARE HEADED FOR A TEST OF MARCH LOWS -- THE FED'S IN A BOX -- IT CAN'T LOWER RATES OR RAISE THEM -- STAGFLATION IS THE REASON WHY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARCH LOWS IN SIGHT... The stock market keeps going from bad to worse. Arthur Hill wrote on Wednesday that the market appeared to have begun another downleg. It sure looks that way. At the very least, we can say with some degree of confidence that the March lows are going...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

SEMIS WEIGH ON THE NASDAQ -- RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN FINANCIALS AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY CONTINUES -- BULLISH PERCENTS DIP BELOW 50% - DOWNSIDE TARGETS FOR THE DOW -- USING THE MEASURED MOVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SEMIS DRAG NASDAQ LOWER... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The Nasdaq dropped over 1% on Wednesday with weakness in the semis. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq breaking back below the 50-day moving average with a gap down today....   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

CAN'T BLAME RISING GRAIN PRICES ON TRADERS -- ENERGY ETFS STILL IN UPTRENDS -- REGIONAL BANKS LEAD FINANCIALS LOWER -- HOMEBUILDERS AND RETAILERS WEIGH ON CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR -- 13 AND 34 DAY EMAS ARE NEGATIVE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RAIN KEEPS GRAIN PRICES RISING... With all of the focus on energy and precious metals, let's not forget the strong price action in agriculatural markets. chart 1 shows the DB Agriculatural ETF climbing again today after recently exceeding its April high. The DBA is second only to energy...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

RISING US RATES SHOULD HELP THE DOLLAR AND COULD HURT COMMODITIES -- WITH RATES RISING BECAUSE OF GLOBAL INFLATION, BONDS AND STOCKS MAY RECOUPLE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A DECADE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

US RATES ARE HEADED HIGHER... All signs are pointing to the idea that U.S. interest rates have bottomed and are heading higher. Today's May CPI report (the real one, not the fake core rate) showed a monthly increase of 0.6%. That's a gain of...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

FINANCE AND TECH LEAD MARKET LOWER -- NEW LOWS EXPAND ON NASDAQ AND NYSE -- TRUCKERS AND RAILS DRAG TRANSPORTS LOWER -- AGRICULTURE ETF SURGES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FINANCE LEADS THE MARKET LOWER - AGAIN... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The stock market took another hit on Wednesday with downside leadership coming from the financial and technology sectors. Relative weakness in the financial sector continues to...   READ MORE