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BAD ECONOMIC NEWS IS LATE AS USUAL -- LOW PUT-CALL RATIO IS BEARISH WARNING -- SENTIMENT INDICATOR SHOWS IMPROVEMENT BUT NO UPTREND -- WHY I PREFER ETFS TO INDIVIDUAL STOCKS -- RAILS AND T...

BAD ECONOMIC NEWS IS LATE AS USUAL -- LOW PUT-CALL RATIO IS BEARISH WARNING -- SENTIMENT INDICATOR SHOWS IMPROVEMENT BUT NO UPTREND -- WHY I PREFER ETFS TO INDIVIDUAL STOCKS -- RAILS AND TRUCKERS WEIGH ON TRANSPORTS

ECONOMISTS ARE LATE AS USUAL... In a recent Market Message, I discussed how the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy and why it isn't a good idea to use economic forecasting to trade the stock market. Historically, the market turns down at least six months...   READ MORE 

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QQQQ AND TECHNOLOGY ARE LAGGING -- QQQQ REMAINS BELOW RESISTANCE -- SURGING OIL LIFTS OVERSOLD ENERGY ETFS -- LONG-TERM TRENDS FOR ENERGY ETFS REMAIN UP

QQQQ AND TECHNOLOGY ARE LAGGING -- QQQQ REMAINS BELOW RESISTANCE -- SURGING OIL LIFTS OVERSOLD ENERGY ETFS -- LONG-TERM TRENDS FOR ENERGY ETFS REMAIN UP

QQQQ SHOWS RELATIVE WEAKNESS ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The stock market bottomed on 15 July and surged over the last 11 trading days. Despite this big surge, performance has been unequal among the major index ETFs. Chart...   READ MORE 

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FALLING OIL BOOSTS AIRLINES -- SOUTHWEST REMAINS AIRLINE LEADER -- BIOTECHS HAVE BEEN JULY'S STRONGEST GROUP -- AMGEN HAS BEEN A BIOTECH LEADER FOR NEARLY A MONTH -- A STRONGER DOLLAR IS H...

FALLING OIL BOOSTS AIRLINES -- SOUTHWEST REMAINS AIRLINE LEADER -- BIOTECHS HAVE BEEN JULY'S STRONGEST GROUP -- AMGEN HAS BEEN A BIOTECH LEADER FOR NEARLY A MONTH -- A STRONGER DOLLAR IS HURTING COMMODITIES AND HELPING STOCKS

OIL RESUMES DOWNTREND... A bounce in the dollar today is causing more selling in commodities. Gold, grains, and oil are all falling as a result. A $3 drop in the price of crude has pushed the United States Oil ETF (Chart 1) below its early June low near 100 and...   READ MORE 

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A LOOK AT FOREIGN STOCK ETFS -- EMERGING MARKET ETF IS HOLDING ABOVE ITS MARCH LOW -- FALLING OIL PRICES ARE HURTING BRAZIL AND RUSSIA BUT HELPING TO STABILIZE CHINA AND INDIA -- MEDCO HEA...

A LOOK AT FOREIGN STOCK ETFS -- EMERGING MARKET ETF IS HOLDING ABOVE ITS MARCH LOW -- FALLING OIL PRICES ARE HURTING BRAZIL AND RUSSIA BUT HELPING TO STABILIZE CHINA AND INDIA -- MEDCO HEALTH SOLUTIONS TURNS UP

A LOOK AT FOREIGN ETFS... One of our readers asked me to take a look at foreign ETFs. So here they are. Chart 1 shows the EAFE iShares (EFA) having lost 23% from their November peak. That puts them in bear market territory. The EFA chart doesn't look...   READ MORE 

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HEALTHCARE CONTINUES TO ATTRACT NEW MONEY -- BIOGEN IDEC AND JOHNSON & JOHNSON ARE LEADERS -- THREE NEW ONES ARE ABC, BCR, AND VAR -- HOUSING AND FINANCIAL GROUPS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- DOW...

HEALTHCARE CONTINUES TO ATTRACT NEW MONEY -- BIOGEN IDEC AND JOHNSON & JOHNSON ARE LEADERS -- THREE NEW ONES ARE ABC, BCR, AND VAR -- HOUSING AND FINANCIAL GROUPS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- DOW BACKS OFF FROM INITIAL RESISTANCE BARRIERS

HEALTHCARE SPDR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH ... Healthcare remains the only defensive group showing relative strength. Chart 1 shows the Health Care SPDR (XLV) moving up to challenge its spring highs. Its relative strength line (below chart) is much more impressive. The RS turned up during May (when the last market rally...   READ MORE 

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RUSSELL 2000 REACHES 200-DAY -- A LONG-TERM HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS FOR THE DOW UTILITIES -- MATERIALS SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- STEEL ETF BREAKS 200-DAY -- LOOKING AT RETRACEMENTS IN T...

RUSSELL 2000 REACHES 200-DAY -- A LONG-TERM HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS FOR THE DOW UTILITIES -- MATERIALS SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- STEEL ETF BREAKS 200-DAY -- LOOKING AT RETRACEMENTS IN THE LAST BEAR MARKET

RUSSELL 2000 SURGES TO 200-DAY ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The Russell 2000 surged to its 200-day moving average with an extremely sharp move over the last seven days. This small-cap index showed less weakness by holding above...   READ MORE 

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AIRLINES AND FINANCIALS LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- AMR, CAL, AND LUV BOUNCE OFF LONG-TERM SUPPORT LINES -- SOUTHWEST IS UPSIDE LEADER --AIRLINE RALLY MAY BE ANOTHER SIGN THAT OIL HAS PEAKED

AIRLINES AND FINANCIALS LEAD MARKET HIGHER -- AMR, CAL, AND LUV BOUNCE OFF LONG-TERM SUPPORT LINES -- SOUTHWEST IS UPSIDE LEADER --AIRLINE RALLY MAY BE ANOTHER SIGN THAT OIL HAS PEAKED

AIRLINE INDEX CLEARS 50-DAY LINE ... Another possible sign that oil prices have peaked was today's spectular rally in airline shares. Chart 1 shows the AMEX Airline Index (XAL) jumping 22% today to make it day's strongest group by far. In addition, the XAL clearled its 50-day...   READ MORE 

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MOST COMMODITIES ARE IN CORRECTIONS -- GOLD MAY ALSO BE VULNERABLE AS DOLLAR ETF BOUNCES OFF MARCH LOW -- A POTENTIAL BOTTOM IN US BOND YIELDS MAY HELP STABILIZE THE DOLLAR -- THAT COULD P...

MOST COMMODITIES ARE IN CORRECTIONS -- GOLD MAY ALSO BE VULNERABLE AS DOLLAR ETF BOUNCES OFF MARCH LOW -- A POTENTIAL BOTTOM IN US BOND YIELDS MAY HELP STABILIZE THE DOLLAR -- THAT COULD PUT THE COMMODITY UPTREND IN JEOPARDY

ENERGY IS THE LAST COMMODITY GROUP TO ROLL OVER ... I've gotten a lot of questions regarding my article last week about commodities having entered into a downside correction. One reader asked if there were any commodity ETFs in existence. There are several of them. Chart 1 shows the...   READ MORE 

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COMMODITIES MAY HAVE PEAKED FOR NOW -- WEEKLY AND MONTHY CHARTS SHOW OVERBOUGHT COMMODITIES IN NEED OF A CORRECTION -- COMMODITIES ARE TOO HIGH RELATIVE TO STOCKS

COMMODITIES MAY HAVE PEAKED FOR NOW -- WEEKLY AND MONTHY CHARTS SHOW OVERBOUGHT COMMODITIES IN NEED OF A CORRECTION -- COMMODITIES ARE TOO HIGH RELATIVE TO STOCKS

SHORT-TERM SELL SIGNALS GIVEN ... This week's downturn in crude oil prices has had a depressing effect on the entire commodity group. Chart 1 shows the CRB Index (plotted through Thursday) breaking a three-month up trendline (and its 50-day moving average). The 12-day Rate of Change (ROC) line (top...   READ MORE 

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ANOTHER OIL DROP BOOSTS MARKET -- ENERGY SPDR BREAKS 200-DAY LINE -- FINANCIALS AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS LEAD REBOUND -- NASDAQ AND RUSSELL 2000 BOUNCE OFF MARCH LOWS -- MOVING AV...

ANOTHER OIL DROP BOOSTS MARKET -- ENERGY SPDR BREAKS 200-DAY LINE -- FINANCIALS AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY STOCKS LEAD REBOUND -- NASDAQ AND RUSSELL 2000 BOUNCE OFF MARCH LOWS -- MOVING AVERAGE TREND IS STILL DOWN BUT IMPROVING

CRUDE OIL BREAKS SUPPORT... On Tuesday I suggested that the downside correction in energy shares warned of possible weakening in the price of crude. The drop in energy shares became more serious today. So did the drop in crude. Crude oil fell another $4.91 (-3.6%) today. Chart 1...   READ MORE 

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RUSSELL 2000 AND NASDAQ LEAD REBOUND -- FINANCIAL AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTORS GET BIG OVERSOLD BOUNCES -- SURGING CPI WEIGHS ON BONDS -- DOW THEORY REMAINS ON SELL SIGNAL

RUSSELL 2000 AND NASDAQ LEAD REBOUND -- FINANCIAL AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTORS GET BIG OVERSOLD BOUNCES -- SURGING CPI WEIGHS ON BONDS -- DOW THEORY REMAINS ON SELL SIGNAL

SMALL-CAPS AND TECHS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor It has been a tale of two markets over the last few months. On one side, the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 were weighed down...   READ MORE 

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ENERGY STOCKS CORRECT FURTHER -- THAT MAY HINT AT OIL WEAKNESS -- DEFENSIVE LEADERSHIP STILL FAVORS STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, AND UTILITIES -- NO SIGN OF A BOTTOM YET IN FINANCIALS

ENERGY STOCKS CORRECT FURTHER -- THAT MAY HINT AT OIL WEAKNESS -- DEFENSIVE LEADERSHIP STILL FAVORS STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, AND UTILITIES -- NO SIGN OF A BOTTOM YET IN FINANCIALS

ENERGY STOCKS CONTINUE DOWNSIDE CORRECTION ... A big drop in energy prices made energy the day's weakest sector. Actually, energy stocks have been correcting for the past two weeks. Chart 1 shows that the Energy SPDR (XLE) broke its 50-day average a couple of weeks back on heavy volume....   READ MORE 

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MARKET OFF TO ANOTHER BAD START -- FOREIGN CURRENCIES SURGE AGAINST DOLLAR -- BIOTECHS AND DRUGS CONTINUE TO ATTACT DEFENSIVE MONEY -- DNA BOOSTS BIOTECH HOLDERS -- ABT AND JNJ ARE BIG PHA...

MARKET OFF TO ANOTHER BAD START -- FOREIGN CURRENCIES SURGE AGAINST DOLLAR -- BIOTECHS AND DRUGS CONTINUE TO ATTACT DEFENSIVE MONEY -- DNA BOOSTS BIOTECH HOLDERS -- ABT AND JNJ ARE BIG PHARMA LEADERS

FOREIGN CURRENCIES JUMP ... The U.S. Dollar is coming under a lot of pressure. The most significant drop is against the Euro which touched a new record today (Chart 1). In fact, all major currencies are rallying against the dollar. Charts 2 through 4 show upturns in the British Pound,...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIALS LEAD MARKET LOWER AGAIN -- S&P 500 EMA TREND IS STILL DOWN -- GOLD STOCK ETF BREAKS OUT -- CELGENE AND GENZYME ARE BIOTECH LEADERS -- VIX STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SIGNAL A BOTTOM

FINANCIALS LEAD MARKET LOWER AGAIN -- S&P 500 EMA TREND IS STILL DOWN -- GOLD STOCK ETF BREAKS OUT -- CELGENE AND GENZYME ARE BIOTECH LEADERS -- VIX STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SIGNAL A BOTTOM

REGIONAL BANKS TUMBLE ... The rout in financial shares continues. Chart 1 shows Bank Regional Holders tumbling to the lowest level in six years. That contributed to more big losses in the entire financial sector. Chart 2 shows the RHK bearing down on its 2002 lows. As has been suggested herein...   READ MORE 

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THE LONG-TERM PICTURE FOR DIA, SPY AND QQQQ -- BREADTH REMAINS WEAK AND WITHOUT A DIVERGENCE -- XLF APPROACHES ITS 2002-2003 LOWS -- ITB STILL UNDERPERFORMING -- BIOTECHS SHOW RELATIVE STR...

THE LONG-TERM PICTURE FOR DIA, SPY AND QQQQ -- BREADTH REMAINS WEAK AND WITHOUT A DIVERGENCE -- XLF APPROACHES ITS 2002-2003 LOWS -- ITB STILL UNDERPERFORMING -- BIOTECHS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH

TAKING A BIG STEP BACK... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return next week. - Editor The stock market is oversold, but just getting even more oversold. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials ETF (DIA) moving to a new low for 2008. The...   READ MORE 

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QQQQ AND IWM MANAGE TO FIRM -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR AND RETAIL SPDR RECORD NEW LOWS -- GOLD SURGES AS DOLLAR SAGS - SECTOR PERFORMANCE SINCE THE OCTOBER AND MAY HIGHS

QQQQ AND IWM MANAGE TO FIRM -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR AND RETAIL SPDR RECORD NEW LOWS -- GOLD SURGES AS DOLLAR SAGS - SECTOR PERFORMANCE SINCE THE OCTOBER AND MAY HIGHS

TO BOUNCE OR NOT TO BOUNCE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return next week. - Editor The major indices surged on Tuesday, pulled back sharply on Wednesday and then firmed on Thursday. Needless to say, there is a serious tug-o-war underway between...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS GET COLD FEET -- FINANCIALS ABOUT FACE AND LEAD THE WAY LOWER - HEALTHCARE SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH -- USING STOCHASTICS WITH THE SECTOR CARPET

STOCKS GET COLD FEET -- FINANCIALS ABOUT FACE AND LEAD THE WAY LOWER - HEALTHCARE SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH -- USING STOCHASTICS WITH THE SECTOR CARPET

EASY COME EASY GO ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return next week. - Editor After a big rebound in the financial sector on Tuesday, stocks got cold feet on Wednesday and retreated. The major indices closed sharply lower with small-caps and techs...   READ MORE 

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MAJOR INDEX ETFS REBOUND -- IWM AND QQQQ LEAD -- GENTLE BEN FIRES UP FINANCIALS -- U.S. DOLLAR INDEX GETS A BOUNCE -- OIL FALLS FOR SECOND DAY

MAJOR INDEX ETFS REBOUND -- IWM AND QQQQ LEAD -- GENTLE BEN FIRES UP FINANCIALS -- U.S. DOLLAR INDEX GETS A BOUNCE -- OIL FALLS FOR SECOND DAY

TECHS AND SMALL-CAPS LEAD MARKET REBOUND ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return next week. - Editor The stock market rebounded on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) leading the charge. IWM surged over 3%, while...   READ MORE 

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DEFENSIVE LEADERS ARE KROGER, AMGEN, AND EXELON -- SECTOR ROTATION MODEL FAVORS STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, AND UTILITIES -- WITH MATERIALS PEAKING, ENERGY STOCKS MAY BE VULNERABLE -- WEAK ECONOM...

DEFENSIVE LEADERS ARE KROGER, AMGEN, AND EXELON -- SECTOR ROTATION MODEL FAVORS STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, AND UTILITIES -- WITH MATERIALS PEAKING, ENERGY STOCKS MAY BE VULNERABLE -- WEAK ECONOMIC NEWS IS CONFIRMING WHAT THE MARKET TOLD US SIX MONTHS AGO

DEFENSIVE STOCK LEADERS ... Arthur Hill pointed out again yesterday that defensive groups like consumer staples, healthchare, and utilities have been attracting new money over the past month. By using our Sector Market Carpet, I've isolated a leading stock in each of those three groups. They should offer some...   READ MORE 

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RUSSELL 2000 AND SMALL-CAPS LEAD BROAD DECLINE -- MATERIALS SECTOR BREAKS DOWN -- STEEL STOCKS FEEL THE HEAT -- RAILROADS LEAD THE DOW TRANSPORTS SHARPLY LOWER -- DEFENSIVE SECTORS SHOW RE...

RUSSELL 2000 AND SMALL-CAPS LEAD BROAD DECLINE -- MATERIALS SECTOR BREAKS DOWN -- STEEL STOCKS FEEL THE HEAT -- RAILROADS LEAD THE DOW TRANSPORTS SHARPLY LOWER -- DEFENSIVE SECTORS SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH

SMALL-CAPS LEAD THE MARKET LOWER ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The Russell 2000 led the market lower on Wednesday as selling intensified in small-caps. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 relative to the S&P 100, which...   READ MORE 

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FRANCE AND GERMANY ARE IN BEAR MARKETS -- COMMODITY EXPORTERS HOLD UP WHILE IMPORTERS FALL -- GOLD ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- FEDEX AND UPS HIT MULTI-YEAR LOWS -- LOW VIX AND CPC READING...

FRANCE AND GERMANY ARE IN BEAR MARKETS -- COMMODITY EXPORTERS HOLD UP WHILE IMPORTERS FALL -- GOLD ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- FEDEX AND UPS HIT MULTI-YEAR LOWS -- LOW VIX AND CPC READINGS SUGGEST MORE SELLING TO COME

THE FALL OF EUROPE... European markets have done even worse than the U.S. Of the three biggest countries there, the weakest have been France and Germany. Chart 1 shows the CAC-40 trading 28% off last year's high. Today's drop put the French market at a...   READ MORE 

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MARKET DROP IS JUST SHY OF AN OFFICIAL BEAR MARKET AS S&P 500 RETESTS MARCH LOW -- OVERSOLD MARKET MAY GET A JULY 4 BOUNCE

MARKET DROP IS JUST SHY OF AN OFFICIAL BEAR MARKET AS S&P 500 RETESTS MARCH LOW -- OVERSOLD MARKET MAY GET A JULY 4 BOUNCE

MARKET HASN'T REACHED 20% THRESHOLD YET... A lot was made in the media over the weekend about the Dow Industrials having lost 20% from its October peak which is bear market territory. It is true that a 20% drop from a previous peak qualifies as an "official&...   READ MORE 

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MONEY ROTATES TOWARD DEFENSIVE GROUPS -- GOLD STOCKS ARE WEEK'S TOP GROUP -- LONG-TERM CHARTS SHOW STOCKS STILL IN A MAJOR BEAR MARKET

MONEY ROTATES TOWARD DEFENSIVE GROUPS -- GOLD STOCKS ARE WEEK'S TOP GROUP -- LONG-TERM CHARTS SHOW STOCKS STILL IN A MAJOR BEAR MARKET

MONEY MOVES TOWARD DEFENSIVE GROUPS ... It's no secret that the market's weakest groups have been financials and consumer discretionary stocks that include autos, homebuilders, and retailers. Those groups have been leading the market lower. It's interesting to see where some money has been going...   READ MORE 

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GENERAL MOTORS PLUNGES TO TWO-DECADE LOW -- RESEARCH IN MOTION TUMBLES 12%

GENERAL MOTORS PLUNGES TO TWO-DECADE LOW -- RESEARCH IN MOTION TUMBLES 12%

US AUTOMAKERS LOOK SICK ... One of our readers asked how the chart of General Motors looked. Rather than analyzing it, I'm just going to show it to you. The chart doesn't need any explanation. Today's 11% plunge in GM has pushed the stock to...   READ MORE 

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DOW HITS TWO-YEAR LOW AS GM AND FINANCIALS LEAD IT LOWER -- RIMM LEADS BIG SELLOFF IN NASDAQ 100 -- TIPS LEAD BOND BOUNCE -- FALLING DOLLAR GIVES BIG BOOST TO GOLD AND OTHER COMMODITIES

DOW HITS TWO-YEAR LOW AS GM AND FINANCIALS LEAD IT LOWER -- RIMM LEADS BIG SELLOFF IN NASDAQ 100 -- TIPS LEAD BOND BOUNCE -- FALLING DOLLAR GIVES BIG BOOST TO GOLD AND OTHER COMMODITIES

DOW BREAKS MARCH LOW -- NASDAQ 100 TUMBLES ... The market is under heavy selling pressure today. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading below its March low which is the lowest level in nearly two years. Other big board indexes are bearing down on their March lows. Autos and financials...   READ MORE 

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BOND YIELDS PREDICT FED POLICY -- CHEMICAL STOCKS AND PROFITS UNDER PRESSURE -- USO HOLDS THE GAP -- XLE FORMS TRIANGLE -- RUSSELL 2000 BREAKS SUPPORT -- SMALL-CAPS VERSUS LARGE-CAPS

BOND YIELDS PREDICT FED POLICY -- CHEMICAL STOCKS AND PROFITS UNDER PRESSURE -- USO HOLDS THE GAP -- XLE FORMS TRIANGLE -- RUSSELL 2000 BREAKS SUPPORT -- SMALL-CAPS VERSUS LARGE-CAPS

FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor As widely expected, the Fed left the federal funds rate and the discount rate unchanged. Inflationary pressures were cited for the decision. Way back in August, the Fed began...   READ MORE 

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SAME OLD STORY -- FALLING FINANCIALS AND RISING OIL HURT MARKET -- FINANCIALS ARE PULLING THE DOW DOWN -- OIL SERVICE AND NATURAL GAS ETFS HIT NEW HIGHS -- STEEL STOCKS HAVE STRONG DAY --...

SAME OLD STORY -- FALLING FINANCIALS AND RISING OIL HURT MARKET -- FINANCIALS ARE PULLING THE DOW DOWN -- OIL SERVICE AND NATURAL GAS ETFS HIT NEW HIGHS -- STEEL STOCKS HAVE STRONG DAY -- UTILITIES ARE BOUNCING WHILE TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN

FINANCIALS WEIGH ON DOW ... One of our readers asked why the Dow is acting so much worse than the Nasdaq 100. Chart 1 shows the disparity. While the Dow is nearing a test of its March low, the Powershares QQQ Trust (QQQQ) has held up much better. To answer that...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS ARE HEADED FOR A TEST OF MARCH LOWS -- THE FED'S IN A BOX -- IT CAN'T LOWER RATES OR RAISE THEM -- STAGFLATION IS THE REASON WHY

STOCKS ARE HEADED FOR A TEST OF MARCH LOWS -- THE FED'S IN A BOX -- IT CAN'T LOWER RATES OR RAISE THEM -- STAGFLATION IS THE REASON WHY

MARCH LOWS IN SIGHT... The stock market keeps going from bad to worse. Arthur Hill wrote on Wednesday that the market appeared to have begun another downleg. It sure looks that way. At the very least, we can say with some degree of confidence that the March lows are going...   READ MORE 

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SEMIS WEIGH ON THE NASDAQ -- RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN FINANCIALS AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY CONTINUES -- BULLISH PERCENTS DIP BELOW 50% - DOWNSIDE TARGETS FOR THE DOW -- USING THE MEASURED MOVE

SEMIS WEIGH ON THE NASDAQ -- RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN FINANCIALS AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY CONTINUES -- BULLISH PERCENTS DIP BELOW 50% - DOWNSIDE TARGETS FOR THE DOW -- USING THE MEASURED MOVE

SEMIS DRAG NASDAQ LOWER... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The Nasdaq dropped over 1% on Wednesday with weakness in the semis. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq breaking back below the 50-day moving average with a gap down today....   READ MORE 

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CAN'T BLAME RISING GRAIN PRICES ON TRADERS -- ENERGY ETFS STILL IN UPTRENDS -- REGIONAL BANKS LEAD FINANCIALS LOWER -- HOMEBUILDERS AND RETAILERS WEIGH ON CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR --...

CAN'T BLAME RISING GRAIN PRICES ON TRADERS -- ENERGY ETFS STILL IN UPTRENDS -- REGIONAL BANKS LEAD FINANCIALS LOWER -- HOMEBUILDERS AND RETAILERS WEIGH ON CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR -- 13 AND 34 DAY EMAS ARE NEGATIVE

RAIN KEEPS GRAIN PRICES RISING... With all of the focus on energy and precious metals, let's not forget the strong price action in agriculatural markets. chart 1 shows the DB Agriculatural ETF climbing again today after recently exceeding its April high. The DBA is second only to energy...   READ MORE 

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RISING US RATES SHOULD HELP THE DOLLAR AND COULD HURT COMMODITIES -- WITH RATES RISING BECAUSE OF GLOBAL INFLATION, BONDS AND STOCKS MAY RECOUPLE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A DECADE

RISING US RATES SHOULD HELP THE DOLLAR AND COULD HURT COMMODITIES -- WITH RATES RISING BECAUSE OF GLOBAL INFLATION, BONDS AND STOCKS MAY RECOUPLE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A DECADE

US RATES ARE HEADED HIGHER... All signs are pointing to the idea that U.S. interest rates have bottomed and are heading higher. Today's May CPI report (the real one, not the fake core rate) showed a monthly increase of 0.6%. That's a gain of...   READ MORE 

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FINANCE AND TECH LEAD MARKET LOWER -- NEW LOWS EXPAND ON NASDAQ AND NYSE -- TRUCKERS AND RAILS DRAG TRANSPORTS LOWER -- AGRICULTURE ETF SURGES

FINANCE AND TECH LEAD MARKET LOWER -- NEW LOWS EXPAND ON NASDAQ AND NYSE -- TRUCKERS AND RAILS DRAG TRANSPORTS LOWER -- AGRICULTURE ETF SURGES

FINANCE LEADS THE MARKET LOWER - AGAIN... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The stock market took another hit on Wednesday with downside leadership coming from the financial and technology sectors. Relative weakness in the financial sector continues to...   READ MORE 

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RISING RATES BOOST THE DOLLAR WHICH PUSHES COMMODITIES LOWER -- MR BERNANKE IS NOW MORE CONCERNED ABOUT INFLATION

RISING RATES BOOST THE DOLLAR WHICH PUSHES COMMODITIES LOWER -- MR BERNANKE IS NOW MORE CONCERNED ABOUT INFLATION

BOND YIELDS RISE ON INFLATION CONCERNS ... Comments from the Fed head that inflation was now his bigger concern sent bond yields sharply higher today on expectations that the Fed may start raising rates to keep inflation under control. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year T-Note Yield closing at the highest level...   READ MORE 

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BEARS ARE BACK IN CONTROL -- BONDS BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY LINES AS STOCKS DROP -- GOLD BENEFITS FROM FALLING DOLLAR AND WEAK STOCK MARKET -- TAKING OUT BEAR MARKET INSURANCE -- VIX SURGES

BEARS ARE BACK IN CONTROL -- BONDS BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY LINES AS STOCKS DROP -- GOLD BENEFITS FROM FALLING DOLLAR AND WEAK STOCK MARKET -- TAKING OUT BEAR MARKET INSURANCE -- VIX SURGES

BEARISH FORCES RETAKE THE MARKET... There have been two consistent themes that myself and Arthur Hill have been stressing in recent Market Messages. One has been that the rally from mid-March is a bear market rally. The other has been that the rally has probably ended. That dual reality was...   READ MORE 

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BIG JUMP IN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SINKS MARKET -- DROP IN DOLLAR GIVES BIG BOOST TO COMMODITIES AS GOLD AND OIL SURGE -- BIGGEST STOCK LOSERS ARE AIRLINES, FINANCIALS, AND HOMEBUILDERS

BIG JUMP IN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SINKS MARKET -- DROP IN DOLLAR GIVES BIG BOOST TO COMMODITIES AS GOLD AND OIL SURGE -- BIGGEST STOCK LOSERS ARE AIRLINES, FINANCIALS, AND HOMEBUILDERS

EURO SURGES AGAINST THE DOLLAR ... The Euro surged against the dollar yesterday on expectations for a European rate hike next month. The dollar is falling today because of the biggest jump in the U.S. unemployment rate in more than two decades (from 5% to 5.5%). Chart 1 shows...   READ MORE 

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ECB RATE HIKE TALK BOOSTS OIL AND MOST OTHER COMMODITIES -- MARKET STILL HAS STRONG DAY -- WAL-MART HITS SIX-YEAR HIGH

ECB RATE HIKE TALK BOOSTS OIL AND MOST OTHER COMMODITIES -- MARKET STILL HAS STRONG DAY -- WAL-MART HITS SIX-YEAR HIGH

EURO SURGE BOOSTS COMMODITIES ... Today's report that the ECB may raise European rates next month to combat inflation pushed the Euro sharply higher today and the dollar lower. Chart 1 shows the Euro jumping 1% today and bouncing off its May low. That lit a spark under most...   READ MORE 

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SMALL-CAPS LEADING LARGE-CAPS -- NASDAQ LEADING NY COMPOSITE -- DIA AND SPY ARE LAGGING -- SEMIS HOLDING STRONG -- AMD SURGES ON GOOD VOLUME

SMALL-CAPS LEADING LARGE-CAPS -- NASDAQ LEADING NY COMPOSITE -- DIA AND SPY ARE LAGGING -- SEMIS HOLDING STRONG -- AMD SURGES ON GOOD VOLUME

A TALE OF TWO MARKETS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The stock market is split in many ways. Small-caps are leading large-caps and techs are leading non-techs. Put another way, large-caps are lagging small-caps and non-techs are lagging...   READ MORE 

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BANK INDEX HITS FIVE-YEAR LOW -- THE S&P 500 IS IN DANGER OF BREAKING 50-DAY AVERAGE -- BOND ETF BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY LINE

BANK INDEX HITS FIVE-YEAR LOW -- THE S&P 500 IS IN DANGER OF BREAKING 50-DAY AVERAGE -- BOND ETF BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY LINE

BANK INDEX HITS FIVE-YEAR LOW... The market has suddenly taken a turn for the worse. I suspect part of the reason for the afternoon selling has to do with the fact that the PHLX Bank Index is on the verge of closing at a new five-year low. Chart 1 shows...   READ MORE 

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IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEAR MARKET RALLY IS ENDING -- SHORT-TERM ROC LINES HAVE TURNED NEGATIVE -- LONG-TERM ROC SHOWS MARKET STILL IN BEAR MARKET -- VIX JUMPS 10% -- NASDAQ FAILS AT 200-...

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEAR MARKET RALLY IS ENDING -- SHORT-TERM ROC LINES HAVE TURNED NEGATIVE -- LONG-TERM ROC SHOWS MARKET STILL IN BEAR MARKET -- VIX JUMPS 10% -- NASDAQ FAILS AT 200-DAY AVERAGE FOR SECOND TIME

NASDAQ FAILS AGAIN AT 200-DAY LINE... The Nasdaq has been one of the strongest parts of the market during the recent rally. Today, however, it was the weakest. And it's coming at a bad time. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite failing for the second time in two...   READ MORE 

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OIL MARKET SUFFERS DOWNSIDE REVERSAL DAY -- RISING BOND YIELDS COINCIDE WITH GOLD DROP

OIL MARKET SUFFERS DOWNSIDE REVERSAL DAY -- RISING BOND YIELDS COINCIDE WITH GOLD DROP

HEAVILY SELLING OF OVERBOUGHT OIL... Earlier today I wrote that energy was the only commodity group that hadn't yet entered into a downside correction. Today may be the day the oil correction finally started. Chart 1 shows the United States Oil Fund (USO) closing 3% lower after trading...   READ MORE