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SO FAR, MARKET BOUNCE IS ONLY SHORT-TERM IN NATURE -- BUT EVEN AN INTERMEDIATE BOUNCE WOULD STILL BE ONLY A BEAR MARKET RALLY -- AN ALTERNATE INTERPRETATION OF RECENT ACTION SUGGESTS STILL ONE MORE DOWNLEG

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BEAR MARKET RALLIES... A couple of weeks ago I suggested that the market had completed a five-wave decline which would suggest the likelihood for an intermediate rally. On Tuesday, I explained that an "intermediate" rally can last anywhere from three weeks to three months and can retrace 38%...   READ MORE 

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200-DAY AVERAGE DETERMINES MARKET'S MAJOR TREND WHICH IS DOWN -- BONDS DON'T LEAD STOCKS ANYMORE -- GOLD CORRECTION IS PROBABLY NOT OVER -- NYSE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX STILL IN DOWNTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

200-DAY AVERAGE DETERMINES MAJOR TREND... One of our readers asked if the 200-day moving average is more important than the 50-day moving average. Yes, certainly. That's because they measure two different trends. The 50-day (or 10-week) average measures the "intermediate" market trend, while the 200-day (or...   READ MORE 

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RESISTANCE ZONES FOR THE NASDAQ AND S&P 500 -- XLF HITS RESISTANCE -- BAC AND JPM ALSO HIT RESISTANCE -- USO SURGES -- XLE AND OIH SURGE ON LOW VOLUME -- BBH SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH -- BIOTECH LEADERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

S&P 500 AND NASDAQ POINT & FIGURE CHARTS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq achieved double top breakouts on their Point & Figure charts, but resistance zones are not...   READ MORE 

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AN INTERMEDIATE MARKET BOTTOM COULD RETRACE 38% TO 50% OF THE OCTOBER-MARCH DECLINE AND LAST APPROXIMATELY ONE TO THREE MONTHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?... Last week I suggested that the stock market was most likely putting in a bottom of intermediate proportions. One of our readers asked me to define what constitutes an "intermediate" rally. I referred to my book "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets"...   READ MORE 

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MARKET INDEXES ARE RISING ABOVE 50-DAY AVERAGES -- THE DOW TRANSPORTS ARE OVER THEIR 200-DAY LINE -- BOND PRICES DROP AS STOCK PRICES RISE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW TRANSPORTS CLEARS 200-DAY LINE... I've been including the Dow Transports in those market groups that have been showing good relative strength of late. Today is no exception. With the market getting off to a strong start this week, the Dow Transports are one of the day'...   READ MORE 

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FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC LEAD FINANCIAL RALLY -- HOMEBUILDERS AND REIT RALLY SUGGEST IMPROVEMENT IN HOUSING -- WAL MART LEADS RETAIL HOLDERS HIGHER -- CSX IS TRANSPORTATION LEADER -- GENERAL ELECTRIC SHOWS NEW LEADERSHIP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MORTGAGE LENDERS LEAD MARKET RALLY ... On Tuesday I wrote about signs of improvement in the stock market and the likelihood for a rally of intermediate proportions. One of the reasons was new signs of relative strength in housing-related areas like homebuilders, retailers, and financial stocks. Here's some more...   READ MORE 

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ENERGY AND MATERIALS SECTORS LEAD THE WAY LOWER -- COMMODITIES TUMBLE AS DOLLAR REBOUNDS -- THE DOW AND SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES -- NEW LOWS STILL OUTPACING NEW HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

XLE AND XLB GET SLAMMED... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The Energy SPDR (XLE) and the Materials SPDR (XLB) led the market lower on Wednesday. This is no doubt due to sharp declines in oil, copper, gold, silver...   READ MORE 

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MARKET APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETED FIFTH WAVE --FINANCIALS AND HOMEBUILDERS LEAD STRONG RALLY -- TEST OF FEBRUARY HIGH APPEARS LIKELY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

LINE CHART SHOWS FIFTH DOWNWAVE... Earlier today I wrote a Market Message supporting the idea that the stock market appears to be putting in a bottom of at least intermediate proportions. I also showed a number of short-term positive divergences suggesting that the market is due for a rally. I...   READ MORE 

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HOMEBUILDERS, RETAILERS, AND TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEW MARKET LEADERSHIP -- BANK BOUNCE ALSO HINTS THAT FINANCIAL SELLOFF IS OVERDONE -- A LOT OF SHORT-TERM POSITIVE DIVERGENCES ARE SHOWING UP, SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE MARKET BOTTOM

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FORMER LAGGARDS CONTINUE TO LEAD ... Last Thurday I showed that several 2007 market groups that helped pull the market lower last year were showing much better relative strength in 2008. The groups I showed included transports, retailers, homebuilders, small and midcap stocks. I suggested that their improved relative performance was...   READ MORE 

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BEAR STEARNS BAILOUT SINKS MARKET AND DOLLAR AS TREASURIES AND GOLD JUMP -- S&P 500 THREATENS JANUARY LOW -- JAPANESE HITS THIRTEEN YEAR HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

YEN HITS THIRTEEN YEAR HIGH ... Last week I showed the Japanese Yen testing major chart resistance its 2000/2004 peaks. Today's 2% gain against the dollar put the yen over 100 for the first time in thirteen years (1995). While that's good for the yen, it&...   READ MORE 

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MARKET REVERSES HIGHER ON RISING VOLUME -- SMALL AND MIDSIZE STOCKS HAVE STARTED TO ACT RELATIVELY BETTER -- SO HAVE THE TRANSPORTS, RETAILERS, AND HOMEBUILDERS -- THAT'S A SUBTLE SIGN OF MARKET IMPROVEMENT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALLER STOCKS ARE STARTING TO ACT BETTER... One of our readers asked for an update on the performance of small cap stocks. Interestingly, they're starting to act better than large caps for the first time in several months. The same is true for midcaps. Charts 1 and 2...   READ MORE 

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DOW AND S&P 500 TEST THEIR JANUARY LOWS -- ANALYZING DOUBLE BOTTOMS -- LOWER RATES NOT HELPING -- FLIGHT TO SAFETY CONTINUES -- SMH SHOWS SOME RELATIVE STRENGTH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

IN THE EYES OF THE BEHOLDER... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor Technical analysis is a little art and a little science, which makes it subjective and open to interpretation. It is kind of like, gasp, economics. With a...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIALS LEAD MARKET IN IMPRESSIVE DAILY BOUNCE -- MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR IS IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY BUT OVERSOLD -- MCCLELLAN SUMMATION INDEX NEEDS POSITIVE OSCILLATOR TO START RISING -- BASE METALS ARE COMMODITY LAGGARDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RATIO-ADJUSTED VERSION CHANGES NUMBERS... I recently showed a chart of the NYSE McClellan Summation Index (NYSI). One of our readers asked for an explanation of the McClellan Oscillator which is actually the basis for the NYSI. In essense, the McClellan Oscillator is the difference between the 39- and 19-day exponential...   READ MORE 

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JAPANESE YEN TESTS MAJOR RESISTANCE -- WHY THE SWISS FRANC IS DOING SO WELL -- THE MARKET'S MOVING AVERAGE TRENDS ARE STILL DOWN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

YEN IS AT CRITICAL CHART POINT... Last Friday I wrote a bullish story on the Japanese yen, which has gone from the world's weakest currency to the strongest since last July. I explained that the yen was benefiting from the unwinding of the "carry trade" in...   READ MORE 

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A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SHORT-TERM VIEWS ... They say a picture is worth a thousand words. At the moment, I've run out of words (meaning that I don't want to keep repeating the same ones). But I never run out of pictures (thanks to Stockcharts.com). As far as I can...   READ MORE 

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FINANCIAL SPDR THEATENS FOUR-YEAR LOW -- NYSE SUMMATION INDEX IS STILL IN BEAR TERRITORY -- THE ONUS IS ON THE BULLS TO PROVE THEIR CASE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NOT THE BEARS ... I've tried to avoid commenting on how the financial media (and their steady stream of Wall Street suits) have reported on the market's problems. I heard one radio guest today, however, that caught my attention because he typified the problem with Wall Street...   READ MORE 

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DOW AND S&P 500 FIND SOME SUPPORT -- FINANCE AND BROKERS REMAIN WEAK -- CORRECTIONS VERSUS TREND CHANGES -- NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY -- A MIRROR START FOR THIS DOWNTREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW AND S&P 500 TESTS SUPPORT... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor After sharp declines late last week, the Dow and S&P 500 are finding some support from their February lows. Both broke key support...   READ MORE 

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A RISING YEN ISN'T GOOD FOR JAPANESE STOCKS -- BUY JAPAN'S CURRENCY, NOT ITS STOCKS -- NASDAQ BREAKS LOWER LINE IN BEARISH TRIANGLE -- ANOTHER MARKET DOWNLEG APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

JAPAN ECONOMY IS EXPORT-ORIENTED ... I received a number of responses to my February 29 article on the rising Japanese yen and why that was bad for global stocks. Some of the questioners seemed to have missed the point of the article or either misunderstood what I was trying to say....   READ MORE 

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MARKET DOWNTREND APPEARS TO BE RESUMING -- NEXT DOWNSIDE S&P TARGET IS LOW FORMED DURING SUMMER OF 2006 -- TIPS LEAD STRONG BOND RALLY -- YEN ETF OFFERS PROFIT PROTECTION AGAINST A FALLING DOLLAR AND FALLING STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARKET DROPS ON EXPANDING VOLUME ... I suggested on Thursday that this was a logical spot for the market rally to fail and fail it did. The fact that Friday's big selloff came on expanding volume (and bad market breadth) just added to the degree of short-term damage done....   READ MORE 

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JAPANESE YEN IS EMERGING AS ONE OF WORLD'S STRONGEST CURRENCIES -- THAT SUGGESTS FURTHER UNWINDING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AND IS HURTING GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

YEN MAY BE NEARING HUGE BULLISH BREAKOUT... One of the day's headlines is the Japanese yen hitting a new three-year high against the U.S. Dollar. Last summer, I started reporting on the emerging new uptrend in the Japanese currency. That uptrend may be about to get a...   READ MORE 

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WEAK ECONOMIC NEWS BOOSTS BONDS BUT SINKS STOCKS -- BOND/STOCK RATIO STILL FAVORS BONDS -- THE DOLLAR FALLS TO A RECORD LOW AS COMMODITIES HIT RECORD HIGH -- CONTINUED FED EASING SUGGESTS THOSE TWO TRENDS WILL CONTINUE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS FALL AS COMMODITIES RISE ... More bad news on the economy triggered a reasonably predictable intermarket script. Bond prices jumped sharply as yields fell. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year T-Note Yield failing a test of a resistance line drawn over its October/December highs. While that was good for...   READ MORE 

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WEAK GDP FIGURE BOOSTS BONDS AND SINKS STOCKS -- DROP IN RATES PUSHES DOLLAR TO RECORD LOW AND COMMODITIES TO RECORD HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WEAK ECONOMIC NEWS FAVORS BONDS OVER STOCKS... On Tuesday, I wrote about the fact that bonds were pulling back to test their 50-day "support" line, while the Dow and S&P 500 were bouncing toward their 50-day "resistance" line. I also suggested that the bond/...   READ MORE 

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TECHS LAGGING THE BROADER MARKET -- DOW STALLS AT RESISTANCE -- THREE DOW COMPONENTS HIT RESISTANCE -- DOLLAR GETS WHACKED AGAIN -- YEN AND CANADIAN DOLLAR SURGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ LAGS NYSE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor Investor appetite for risk remains weak as the Nasdaq continues to lag the NY Composite. With stricter listing requirements on the NYSE, the Nasdaq attracts more speculative (riskier) issues. This...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ TESTS TOP OF TRIANGLE -- DOW AND S&P 500 TEST OVERHEAD RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ TESTS TOP OF TRIANGLE... I've received a lot of questions about the bearish triangle I recently described in the Nasdaq Composite Index. As you can see in Chart 1, it hasn't been resolved one way or the other. After surviving a test of its lower...   READ MORE 

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DOLLAR TRIANGLE LOOKS READY TO BE RESOLVED ON DOWNSIDE -- EURO HITS NEW RECORD TODAY AGAINST DOLLAR -- GOLD STOCKS APPEAR READY TO RESUME THEIR BULL TREND

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR TRIANGLE LOOKS BEARISH ... A few weeks back I wrote that the U.S. Dollar Index could be on the verge of an intermediate-term rebound. That's no longer the case. The daily bars in Chart 1 show that the USD has been forming a triangle since its December...   READ MORE 

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MORE ON YIELD CURVE'S IMPACT ON THE DOLLAR, COMMODITIES, BONDS, AND STOCKS -- BONDS PULLBACK WHILE STOCKS TEST OVERHEAD RESISTANCE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

WHY A STEEPENING YIELD CURVE HURTS THE DOLLAR AND HELPS COMMODITIES... One of our readers asked me to explain my statement that a steepening yield curve hurts the dollar. Chart 1 shows the track record since 1998. The red line is a ratio of the the 10-Year T-Note Yield to...   READ MORE 

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NATURAL GAS BREAKS OUT -- NAT GAS STOCKS STILL LEAD ENERGY PATCH -- EOG HITS NEW RECORD -- APACHE MAY BE NEXT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NATURAL GAS BREAKS OUT... I've written several articles lately about natural gas stocks taking over leadership in the energy patch. That's because the price of natural gas is starting to play catch-up with the rest of the energy complex. Last Wednesday, Arthur Hill wrote that the...   READ MORE 

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BOND/STOCK RATIO IS STILL IN UPTREND -- THE LONG BOND, HOWEVER, IS STARTING TO LAG BEHIND SHORTER MATURITIES AS INFLATION RISES AND YIELD CURVE STEEPENS -- TIPS OFFER A WAY TO SHORTEN BOND MATURITY WHILE OFFERING INFLATION PROTECTION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BONDS ARE STILL ACTING BETTER THAN STOCKS... Last Friday I wrote about the different bond ETFs available to investors. I finished up with a few conclusions. One was that bonds are still a preferred investment over stocks. That's usually the case in the early stages of an economic...   READ MORE 

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TODAY'S DROP KEEPS MARKET IN BEARISH CONSOLIDATION PHASE -- THE NASDAQ APPEARS READY TO RESOLVE BEARISH TRIANGLE TO THE DOWNSIDE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARKET STILL IN BEARISH TRIANGLE... Today's market drop has kept the market in what appears to be a bearish consolidation pattern. The first three daily charts show the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite still trading well below their 50-day averages and their early...   READ MORE 

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INFLATION HEATS UP -- COMMODITY ETFS ARE STRONG ACROSS THE BOARD -- GOLD BREAKS TRIANGLE RESISTANCE -- ANOTHER LOOK AT TIPS -- TLT HITS SUPPORT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COMMODITY ETFS CONFIRM CPI REPORT... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor Before the bell this morning, the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose .4% in January. Core-CPI, which excludes energy and food, rose .3%. Both...   READ MORE 

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ENERGY STOCKS RALLY AS CRUDE HITS $100 -- DEVON AND EOG JOIN NATURAL GAS LEADERS -- GOLD STOCKS ARE TRIANGULATING IN UPTREND -- COMMODITIES HAVE ANOTHER BIG DAY -- STOCK RALLY FADES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MORE NATURAL GAS BREAKOUTS ... Last Tuesday, I wrote about new energy leadership coming from natural gas stocks. I showed two natural gas stocks that were hitting new record highs, including Chesapeake and XTO Energy. Both are hitting new records again today. Here are a couple more natural gas stocks to...   READ MORE 

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YIELD CURVE CONTINUES TO STEEPEN -- SELLING IN LONG BOND ETF SUGGESTS SHORTER MATURITIES -- TIPS OFFER MORE INFLATION PROTECTION -- BOND/STOCK RATIO NOW FAVORS BONDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STEEPENING YIELD CURVE IMPLIES ECONOMIC WEAKENING ... I wrote an article on the steepening yield curve on January 31 and have been asked to revisit the question of bonds and bond yields. One question I received was how to create Chart 1. The "yield spread" usually refers to the...   READ MORE 

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HOME DEPOT LEADS RETAIL GROUP LOWER -- YESTERDAY'S RETAIL LED BOUNCE SHOWS NO FOLLOW THROUGH -- MARKET APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING IN DOWNTREND -- WAVE PATTERNS SUGGEST AT LEAST ONE MORE DOWNLEG

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HOME DEPOT LEADS RETAIL LOSSES ... A government report on retail spending sent that group higher yesterday. Arthur Hill pointed out, however, that the retail group is still in a downtrend. He also showed that while Wal Mart (the largest stock in the retail group) was doing much better than the...   READ MORE 

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BROAD MARKET UP -- SECTORS MIXED -- NASDAQ AND RUSSELL 2000 LEAD THE WAY -- RETAIL HOLDRS BOUNCE -- WAL-MART CHARGES TO RESISTANCE -- CLARIFYING PERFCHART SETTINGS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

MARKET RALLIES WITH MIXED PARTICIPATION... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The major indices moved higher on Wednesday, but participation was mixed. A run through the AMEX Select Sector SPDRs on the Market Summary page shows four sectors gaining...   READ MORE 

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BUFFETT OFFER BUOYS FINANCIAL STOCKS -- NATURAL GAS STOCKS ARE NEW ENERGY LEADERS -- NAT GAS LEADERS ARE XTO, CHESAPEAKE, AND APACHE -- A COMPARISON OF COMMODITIES AND THE DOLLAR

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

THIS IS CORRECT YEN CHART ... In last Friday's Market Message, I tried to show that the Japanese Yen was starting to rally against all of the world's major currencies (in addition to the U.S. Dollar). One of our sharp-eyed readers correctly pointed out that Chart...   READ MORE 

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RISING US DOLLAR PROFUND AND PROSHARES US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH FUND ARE AVAILABLE -- RYDEX OFFERS EIGHT FOREIGN CURRENCY ETFS -- THE YEN HAS GONE FROM WORLD'S WEAKEST CURRENCY TO ONE OF THE STRONGEST

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RISING DOLLAR FUNDS... Following my article on the possibility of a dollar bottom yesterday, I received a number of questions on how to play a dollar rally. One simple way is to buy the Rising US Dollar ProFund (RDPIX). This mutual fund is designed to match the performance of the...   READ MORE 

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EURO FALLS ON HINT ECB MAY BE READY TO LOWER RATES -- THAT SHOULD HELP THE DOLLAR WHICH IS IN A MAJOR OVERSOLD CONDITION -- A DOLLAR RALLY WOULD HELP MAKE US STOCKS A BETTER VALUE THAN FOREIGN STOCKS -- COMMODITIES MAY ALSO PULL BACK IN A DOLLAR RALLY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EURO FALLS ON ECB WILLINGNESS TO LOWER RATES ... My article on Tuesday about the likelihood that the ECB would have to start lowering rates pretty soon elicited a lot of questions about the implications of such a move. I'll try to address some of them here. Two rate...   READ MORE 

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STOCKS REMAIN ON DEFENSIVE -- CONSUMER STAPLES, UTILITIES AND HEALTHCARE SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- QQQQ LAGS THE BROADER MARKET -- THE TECH TROIKA -- SLOWING ECONOMY MAY WEIGH ON CRUDE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DEFENSIVE SECTORS SHINE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor Taking their cue from the New York Giants, the defensive sectors are holding their ground. The first image shows the Amex Select Sector SPDRs within the Market Summary page. Eight...   READ MORE 

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FOREIGN STOCKS ARE FALLING FASTER THAN THE U.S. -- WHEN FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKERS START LOWERING RATES, FOREIGN STOCKS WILL LOSE DOLLAR TAILWIND -- GLOBAL STOCK DOWNTURN APPEARS TO BE RESUMING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SAME BEAR SIGNALS APPLY TO FOREIGN STOCKS... One of our readers asked if the same bearish technical indicators that I've been showing for the U.S. market apply to foreign markets. The answer is "yes". Chart 1, for example, shows a monthly MACD signal on the...   READ MORE 

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DAILY AND WEEKLY 13 AND 34 EMAS REMAIN NEGATIVE -- MONTHLY EMA SPREAD WEAKENS BY MOST IN FIVE YEARS -- WILSHIRE 5000 GIVES SAME SIGNALS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

CHECK YOUR AVERAGES ... One of our readers asked for an update on the 13 and 34 "weekly" EMAs (exponentially smoothed moving averages), which I've written about several times in the past as an excellent indicator of market trend. He asked why the EMAs for some of...   READ MORE