S&P 500 NEEDS TO CLEAR 100-DAY LINE ... On Monday I wrote about the S&P 500 testing long-term support at its 400-day (80-week) moving average line. The S&P has bounced off that support line to improve its short-term trend. I explained that the 80-"... READ MORE
DOW SURGES FOR SECOND DAY RUNNING... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will return tomorrow. - Editor The market moved sharply higher on Wednesday as hopes of a rate cut spurred the bulls into action. First, let's review some of the economic... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 MAY ATTEMPT BOUNCE OFF AUGUST LOW ... The market's 10% drop since mid-October matches a similar decline during July and August. Although the market's long-term trend is now in doubt, there's a good chance for a rally attempt off... READ MORE
WEEKLY EMA LINES AT CRITICAL SPOT... I received a number of requests to review some of our moving average indicators starting with the 13-34 exponential moving average (EMA) combination. Charts 1 and 2 compare that combination to the daily and weekly chart of the S&P 500. The daily... READ MORE
BONDS CONTINUE TO ATTRACT MONEY... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. - Editor Money continues to flow into the bond market as the economic outlook deteriorates. John Murphy pointed to the sharp decline in the Cyclicals Index ($CYC) on Monday and noted that this was a... READ MORE
MARKET STILL ON THE DEFENSIVE ... As I review my last Market Message written on Friday November 9 (before leaving for Europe), I see nothing to change my negative view of the market. The indicators that were bearish then are still bearish (both price and breadth). The weakest groups are still... READ MORE
DEFINITIONS FOR TREND AND TIMEFRAME ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back next week. - Editor There are basically three time-frames at work in the market. While definitions can, and do, vary, I categorize the short-term, medium-term and long-term time-frames as follows.... READ MORE
FINANCIALS WEIGH ON THE MARKET ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back next week. - Editor Continued concern over the sub-prime problems and the current credit crisis buoyed bonds and weighed on financial stocks-again. Barlays PLC reported that it will take a... READ MORE
DIA GETS COLD FEET... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back next week. - Editor The Dow Industrials ETF (DIA) started the day strong, but gave up early gains and closed down for the day. The ETF met resistance from broken support... READ MORE
STOCKS REBOUND WITH BROAD RALLY... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back next week. - Editor Turnaround Tuesday lived up to its name today as the market surged with a broad rally. All of the major indices were up over 2%. The... READ MORE
NYSE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX FALLS BELOW 50 ... On Wednesday, Arthur Hill wrote about the negative divergence between a rising Nasdaq market and a falling Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index with bearish implications for that market. Today, I'm applying the same analysis to the NYSE. Unfortunately, the message is similarly... READ MORE
LAST WEEK'S HEADLINES STILL APPLY... As I survey the damage done to the stock market this week, I reviewed what I wrote last Thursday. The preceding headline is taken from last Thursday's Market Message and describes today's market action quite well. Except that things... READ MORE
BROAD SELLING HITS WALL STREET... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor All of the major index ETFs moved sharply lower as broad selling pressure gripped Wall Street on Wednesday. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) led the way by... READ MORE
SILVER HITS NEW HIGH ... Another record low in the U.S. Dollar helped commodity markets to another big day on the upside. Oil jumped $2.72 to close near $97 and just three dollars shy of its 1980 high near $100 in inflation-adjusted dollars. Gold jumped $12 to close at... READ MORE
BEAR MARKET IN BANKS ... Earlier today I showed the Bank Index on the verge of hitting a new low for the year. By day's end, it had fallen to the lowest level in two years (Chart 1). The puts the BKX on track to challenge its 2005 low.... READ MORE
CITIGROUP PLUNGES 7% ... It's the same story over and over again. More bad news in financial stocks pulls the rest of the market lower. The day's biggest financial casualty is Citigroup which plunged more than 7% on huge volume. Chart 1 shows the nation's... READ MORE
STOCKS SURGE AFTER FED ANNOUNCEMENT... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor As is usually the case on Fed day, the stock market put in a volatile performance on Wednesday. The major indices were modestly higher heading into the... READ MORE
CONSUMER STAPLES FOLLOW ENERGY... Chart 1 is an idealized diagram of how various market sectors do at various stages in the business cyle. The diagram is based on the work of Sam Stovall who has done extensive work in this area. There are two versions of this diagram. Let'... READ MORE
FINANCIALS ARE DAY'S STRONGEST GROUP ... My last words on Thursday evening were that the market wouldn't rally much without a bounce in the financials. It got that bounce today and rallied accordingly. For a change, the financials were the day's strongest sector (all of... READ MORE
MICROSOFT RELATIVE STRENGTH LINE TURNS UP... Last night I showed Microsoft breaking out to a six-year high. After a bullish report, the stock is soaring another 10% today. One of our readers reacted to last night's chart with the observation that Microsoft's upside breakout hardly qualified... READ MORE
CONSUMER STAPLES SHIFT FROM LAGGARDS TO LEADERS ... One market sector that keeps showing up on the 2007 leadership list is consumer staples. The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) has outperformed the S&P over the last week, the last month, and since the start of 2007. That's a... READ MORE
STOCKS RECOVER AFTER EARLY LOSSES... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor After starting the day weak and remaining weak into the afternoon, stocks surged in the final two hours and cut most of their losses by the close.... READ MORE
S&P 500 SPDRS BOUNCE OFF 149 SUPPORT... Last Friday I wrote that the first important line of defense for the S&P 500 SPDRs was 149. I got that number from the early August peak and the 50-day moving average. Chart 1 shows that Monday's... READ MORE
MORE ON THE MCCLELLAN INDICATORS ... On Tuesday I showed the McClellan Oscillator (MOC) falling below the zero line for the first time in two months which triggered a short-term sell signal. I explained that the MOC is derived by comparing two exponential moving averages (19 and 39 days) of the... READ MORE
EURO HITS NEW RECORD AGAINST THE DOLLAR ... With all the recent bad news on housing, and increased hopes for another rate cut by the Fed, the U.S. Dollar continues to drop like a stone. The U.S. Dollar Index recently hit a new record low. In today's... READ MORE
BIG TECHS LEAD THE WAY... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor After positive news from Intel (INTC) and Yahoo! (YHOO), stocks started the day with a bang and surged higher. However, broad strength gave way to choppy trading... READ MORE
CITIGROUP AND KEYCORP LEAD BANKS LOWER ... Once again, financial stocks are leading the rest of the market lower. Bank stocks were hit especially hard today. Two of the biggest casualties were Citigroup and Keycorp. Chart 1 shows Citigroup falling more than 2% and threatening its summer low. Keycorp fell more... READ MORE
IT'S NOT JUST THE DOLLAR ... One of the main driving forces behind the recent rally in gold (and other commodities) has been the falling dollar. At the same time, one of the signs of a true bull market in gold is its ability to rise against other currencies... READ MORE
BIOTECH INDEX EXCEEDS SPRING HIGH... We've written several bullish articles on biotechs over the past few months. Here's another one. The reason we're writing about it today is obvious from Chart 1. That chart shows the AMEX Biotechnology Index (BTK) trading over its spring... READ MORE
SMALL CAPS FAIL FIRST TEST OF OLD HIGH ... Earlier today I showed the S&P 600 Small Cap Index testing its summer high at 445 and suggested that was an important test for the rest of the market. It was. And its 1.1% selloff from that resistance may... READ MORE
VARY BOX SIZE FOR SENSITIVITY ... One reader asked why I use a 1% box size on my point & figure charts. I do that for two reasons. One is that a percentage box size makes for easier comparisons between markets. Percentage box sizes eliminate the need to figure out which... READ MORE
BIG DAY FOR ENERGY... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor Energy stocks and Crude Oil were standout performers once again on Wednesday. The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) started things off with a surge above 62. Media... READ MORE
BREADTH DIVERGENCES STILL EXIST... One of the problems we deal with in market analysis is that we often get mixed readings from different technical indicators. This is one of those times. I showed on Friday, for example, that weekly MACD lines had turned positive. Earlier in the week, however, I... READ MORE
FINANCIALS AND SMALL CAPS TURN UP ... On Monday I wrote about the sharp upturn in financials and small caps, and remarked that their new strength had taken a big weight off the market. That strong trend in those two former laggards has had a lot to do with this week&... READ MORE
DRG CLEARS 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE ... Arthur Hill commented on new buying in pharmaceutcals yesterday. I'd like to expand on that theme today. Although money has been flowing into defensive groups like consumer staples and healthchare, we haven't seen too much interest in pharmaceuticals. Until this week... READ MORE
CHIPS WEIGH ON THE NASDAQ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor The Nasdaq Composite came under pressure with notable weakness in semiconductor stocks on Wednesday. The index exceeded its July high earlier this week and is up around... READ MORE
NYSE AD LINE IS LAGGING... After yesterday's new record close by the Dow, I was asked several questions about market breadth. The reason for the questions is shown by Chart 1. Although the NYSE Composite Index closed just below its July peak, the NYSE Advance-Decline line is still... READ MORE
SMALL CAPS HAVE STRONG DAY ... Although most of the reporting on today's rally will probably deal mainly with large cap market indexes hitting new highs or close to doing so, the day's biggest gains were seen in small caps. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 Small... READ MORE
CONSUMER STAPLE HIGH ... On September 17 I showed the Fidelity Consumer Staples Fund hitting a new high. This week I'm showing the Consumer Staples Select SPDR (XLP) doing the same. Chart 1 shows the XLP trading over its early June intra-day peak at 27.87. It gets even... READ MORE
WHAT'S THE REAL MESSAGE... One of our readers asked a question that I've been thinking a lot about lately. It has to do with the conflicting messages being given by the weak financials and strong technology. Financial stocks are usually viewed as leading indictors for the... READ MORE