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STOCKS GET A TRIPLE WHAMMY -- DOW HITS RESISTANCE AT 50-DAY - INFLATIONARY PRESSURES WEIGH ON BONDS -- NASDAQ HITS RESISTANCE AT GAP -- YEN CARRY-TRADE UNWINDS -- YEN ETF GAPS HIGHER -- BULLS PREFER SOMETHING SWEET
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HAWKS, DURABLES AND OIL RATTLE STOCKS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor
Stocks got off to a bad start this morning from rising oil prices and weaker-than-expected durable goods orders. There was a bounce around midday, but stocks...
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HOMEBUILDERS NEAR TEST OF NECKLINE IN POTENTIAL HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOPPING PATTERN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LENNAR MAY BE IN FINAL STAGE OF MAJOR TOP ... More bad news from Lennar pushed homebuilders, REITs, and financial stocks lower today. Given the daily focus on the housing sector, this is as good a time as any to take a longer-term look at at the group. Unfortunately, the longer-range...
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WEAK HOUSING DATA WEIGHS ON REITS AND HOMEBUILDERS -- FALLING RATES HURT DOLLAR AND HELP COMMODITIES -- AAPLE AND EBAY KEEP NASDAQ OVER ITS 50-DAY LINE -- ABBOTT LABS AND GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER LEAD S&P 500 HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
HOMEBUILDERS WEAKEN ... Anything tied to housing or real estate was sold today. The reason is the report that new home sales fell "unexpectedly" in February by 3.9% to the lowest level in nearly seven years. At the same time, inventories rose 1.6% to the highest level...
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TELECOM HOLDERS CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM -- VERIZON NEARS BULLISH BREAKOUT-- MORE CONSUMER STAPLE LEADERS -- ESTEE LAUDER ACHIEVES MAJOR BULLISH BREAKOUT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TELECOM HOLDERS REVISITED ... A review of market sectors over the last month shows a decided preference for defensive stocks. The four top sectors over the last month have been energy (+4.4%), utilities (+3.5%), telecom (2.8%), and consumer staples (-.08%). [Although consumer staples lost ground, they did...
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MORE ENERGY BREAKOUTS -- KIMBERLY CLARK IS ANOTHER STAPLE LEADER -- MOTOROLA GOES FROM MARKET LEADER TO LAGGARD -- YESTERDAY'S RALLY SHIFTS MARKET INTO A MORE NEUTRAL MODE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ENERGY SPDR HITS NEW 2007 HIGH ... I've recently highlighted new strength in the oil service sector. With crude oil trading back over $61 today (and gasoline inventories dropping for the sixth consecutive week), money continues to flow into the energy sector. Chart 1 shows the Energy SPDR (XLE)...
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STOCKS REACT POSITIVELY TO THE FED -- DIA CONFIRMS HAMMER - FINANCE LEADS THE WAY -- BONDS RECOVER AFTER FED ANNOUNCEMENT -- US DOLLAR INDEX DECLINES -- GOLD ADVANCES FOR SIXTH STRAIGHT DAY -- CAT IS BACK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS SURGE AFTER FED ANNOUNCEMENT... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the fed-funds rate unchanged and stocks greeted the news with a big advance. The policy statement noted that there were...
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SHORT-TERM MARKET TREND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE, BUT ON LIGHT VOLUME -- MARKET ON FED WATCH -- JUNIPER AND ORACLE BOUNCE OFF 200-DAY AVERAGES -- HOUSING INDEX IS TESTING ITS 200-DAY LINE -- KROGER REACHES NEW SEVEN YEAR HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MARKET ON FED WATCH ... It's doubtful that the Fed will take any action on interest rates tomorrow. Some are hoping, however, for a change in the wording of its statement. Over the past few months, the Fed has expressed more concern about the elevated inflation rate and less...
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OIL SERVICE STOCKS LEAD STRONG ENERGY COMPLEX -- MORE OIH LEADERS ARE BREAKING OUT -- GASOLINE IS GETTING MORE EXPENSIVE -- FINANCIALS MAKE STAND AT 200-DAY AVERAGE -- SO DOES MICROSOFT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
OIL SERVICE HOLDERS SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP ... After nearly a year of underperformance, oil service stocks are starting to show new market leadership. The Oil Service Holders (OIH) are up more than 3% today and are the day's strongest ETF. [Energy is the day's strongest sector]. Chart...
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SOME CONSUMER STAPLE AND ENERGY LEADERS -- HOW TO BENEFIT FROM FALLING DOLLAR -- FINANCIALS TEST LONG-TERM SUPPORT -- P&F TRENDS ARE STILL DOWN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CONSUMER STAPLES DOING RELATIVELY WELL... Last Friday I wrote about new signs of relative strength in the consumer staples sector. When I refer to relative strength, I mean how a group is doing relative to the S&P 500. That doesn't necessarily mean that a group is...
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GOLD IS TESTING SUPPORT LINE, BUT IS STILL BEING EFFECTED BY THE YEN -- RISING COPPER BOOSTS FREEPORT MCMORAN COPPER & GOLD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD STILL TESTING SUPPORT LINE ... I got an unusually large number of questions on the gold market. Actually, very little has changed since the last time we looked at it. Chart 1 shows the streetTracks Gold Trust Shares (GLD) still testing an uptrend line drawn under its October/January lows....
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NASDAQ TESTS EARLY MARCH LOW - RUSSELL 2000 RECOVERS AFTER SUPPORT BREAK - QUALCOM GAPS HIGHER- APPLE SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH - ORACLE CAUGHT IN MOVING AVERAGE SANDWICH - ENERGY ETF'S SURGE ON GOOD VOLUME -- SCHLUMBER FORMS P&F TRIPLE TOP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TESTING THE EARLY MARCH LOWS... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor
The major indices moved lower in early trading, but recovered in the afternoon and closed strong. Tuesday's decline marked a test of the early March...
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REPLAY OF LATE FEBRUARY -- BANKS, BROKERS, AND HOMEBUILDERS LEAD STOCK SELLOFF ON SUBPRIME CONCERNS -- MARKET MAY BE STARTING SECOND DOWNLEG AS VOLATILITY SURGES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MORE OF THE SAME ... I posted a market message earlier today to the effect that the same global intermarket problems that started exactly two weeks ago are re-surfacing. The sequence includes falling Chinese stocks, falling emerging markets, falling global stocks, a flight to safety into Treasury bonds, buying of Japanese...
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BANKS AND BROKERS PULL MARKET LOWER AS MORTGAGE CONCERNS GROW -- HOMEBUILDERS ARE ALSO FALLING HARD -- SHORT TERM MARKET BOUNCE APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SUBPRIME MORTAGE CONCERNS SPREAD ... To no one's surprise outside of Wall Street (and the Fed), subprime mortgage concerns continue to spread to financial shares and the rest of the market. Brokers are down more than 3% today and are threatening their 200-day average (Chart 1). Another downleg in...
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CONSUMER STAPLE LEADERS INCLUDE COORS, HERSHEY, AND KELLOGG -- WHY CONSUMER STAPLE LEADERSHIP ISN'T A GOOD SIGN FOR THE MARKET
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CONSUMER STAPLES ARE HOLDING UP RELATIVELY WELL ... One of the well-known market maxims is that consumer staples generally hold up better than the rest of the market in a market downturn. That has certainly been the case recently. Not the consumer staples haven't lost money over the last...
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MARKET CONTINUES LOW-VOLUME BOUNCE -- EMERGING MARKET ISHARES BOUNCE TO 50-DAY LINE -- THAT'S AN IMPORTANT TEST OF RALLY'S STRENGTH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NOT A VERY IMPRESSIVE BOUNCE ... The market continued its low-volume bounce today. Light volume during a price bounce betrays a lack of bullish enthusiasm and doesn't inspire much confidence that the current bounce is anything more than a reflex rally from an oversold condition. The market also remains...
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STOCKS CLOSE WEAK -- NASDAQ STAYS OVERSOLD -- ENERGY STOCKS SHOW SOME STRENGTH -- CONOCOPHILIPS AND BJ SERVICES LEAD -- SURGE IN OIL FUELS ENERGY GROUP -- AIRLINES GROUNDED WITH RISING OIL PRICES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LATE SELLING PUSHES STOCKS LOWER... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor
A wave of selling pressure hit the market this afternoon and the major indices closed lower. Even though the declines were modest, the inability to hold gains...
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NYSE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX TURNS DOWN -- SO DOES SHORT-TERM MOVING AVERAGE SYSTEM -- MARKET STARTS OVERSOLD BOUNCE -- COMPARING DAILY AND WEEKLY SIGNALS FOR GUIDANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NYSE BULLISH % INDEX TURNS DOWN ... One of our readers asked for an update on the NYSE Bullish Percent Index. The BPI represents the number of stocks in an index that are on point & figure buy signals. Readings over 70 are considered overbought. Drops below 70 are usually associated with...
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MORTGAGE CONCERNS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MARKET -- BROKERS AND REITS LEAD DECLINE -- RISING YEN HELPS EXPLAIN GOLD DROP -- DOW AND S&P 500 ARE HEADED TOWARD 200-DAY AVERAGES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MORTAGE SITUATION WORSENS... Since the market meltdown started last week, the economic community (aided by a willing TV media) keeps telling us that the subprime mortage problems are relatively limited and shouldn't impact on the economy or the stock market. And each day everything tied to housing and...
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CHINA LEADS GLOBAL STOCK DECLINE AS BONDS AND THE YEN RISE -- STOCKS APPEAR HEADED FOR FIRST 10% CORRECTION IN FOUR YEARS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BONDS SURGE AS GLOBAL STOCKS FALL... A plunge in Chinese stocks started the sharpest global stock downturn in four years. Emerging markets lost 8% on the week while foreign stocks in general fell 5.6%. By contrast, the U.S. lost a little over 4%. The hardest hit market sector...
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WHY RISING YEN POSES A GLOBAL THREAT -- UNWINDING THE CARRY TRADE -- SHORT-TERM OVERSOLD CONDITION STABILIZES US MARKET --BUT DOWNSIDE RISK STILL REMAINS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
YEN RALLIES AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES ... In the middle of Tuesday's global selloff, I showed bond prices rising as stocks were selling off. I mentioned that falling U.S. yields were hurting the U.S. Dollar, especially against the Japanese yen which had rallied to a new six-week...
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MAJOR INDEX ETFS FIND SUPPORT -- MOMENTUM TURNS BEARISH FOR SPX -- ANALYZING A PRIOR CORRECTION -- SPX SUPPORT AND TARGETS -- SPRINT-NEXTEL BOUNCES BACK -- STEEL STOCKS SHOW STRENGTH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
STOCKS FIRM AFTER BIG DECLINE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor
A day after the biggest decline in years, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) firmed on Wednesday....
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MARKET HAS WORST DAY IN YEARS -- VIX SOARS 60% -- PUT/CALL RATIO HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH -- WEEKLY MACD LINES TURN NEGATIVE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
VOLATILITY INDEX SURGES ON PUT BUYING ... When investors get nervous about the stock market, they buy puts. That negative sentiment is reflected in rising volatility indexes. And the two most closely watched volatility indexes soared today as the market fell heavily. Chart 1 shows the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index soaring...
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PLUNGE IN CHINA CAUSES GLOBAL SELLOFF AND MOVE INTO TREASURIES -- DOW AND S&P 500 ARE TRADING BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CHINA PLUNGE PUNISHES EMERGING MARKETS ... A 9% plunge in the Chinese stock market has caused a global stock selloff and a continuing shift to the safety of Treasury bonds. Chart 1 shows Chinese iShares (FXI) gapping down below its 50-day moving average on very heavy volume. The day's...
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M ORGAN STANLEY IS BIGGEST LOSER IN FALLING BROKERAGE GROUP -- WHY LOSS OF BROKER LEADERSHIP ISN'T GOOD FOR THE MARKET
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MORGAN STANLEY IS LATEST CASUALTY ... On Friday I wrote about selling in brokerage stocks and showed chart breakdowns in Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch. The brokerage group was today's weakest industry, and the biggest percentage loser in the group was Morgan Stanley. The daily bars in Chart 1...
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MORTGAGE CONCERNS HURT FINANCIALS BUT BOOST BONDS AND UTILITIES -- COMMODITY PRICES ARE RISING AGAIN -- WHY RISING GOLD IS GOOD FOR JAPAN -- KLA TENCOR NEARS BULLISH BREAKOUT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MORTGAGE CONCERNS WEAKEN HOUSING SECTOR ... On February 12, I showed a chart of Countrywide Financial starting to break down on rising volume. It's fallen even further since then and is now threatening its 200 day moving average (Chart 1). I took its earlier weakness as a sign that...
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SILVER ASSETS ARE DOING EVEN BETTER THAN GOLD -- SEMICONDUCTOR SURGE HELPS KEEP THE NASDAQ IN THE BLACK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SILVER EXCEEDED SPRING PEAK MONTHS AGO ... Precious metals surged to new nine-month highs on Wednesday on heavy volume. Although a lot has been made about the fact that gold was testing its spring high (which it broke yesterday), the fact is that silver exceeded that chart barrier in late November....
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TECHS AND SMALL-CAPS EKE OUT GAINS -- APPLE LEADS TECHS HIGHER -- CPI REPORT WEIGHS ON BONDS -- GOLD AND OIL HAVE BIG DAYS -- S&P EXTENDS PNF STRING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TECHS AND SMALL-CAPS HOLD UP... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor
The market ended mixed on Wednesday. The S&P 500 and Dow edged lower, but the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 closed slightly higher. Techs and small-caps...
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FALLING RATES WEAKEN DOLLAR AND BOOST COMMODITIES -- JAPAN ISHARES ARE WEEK'S TOP ETF -- INTERNATIONAL PAPER BREAKS OUT -- CONSUMER STAPLES ARE STAGING COMEBACK -- BROADBAND HOLDERS HAVE STRONG WEEK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
IT STARTS WITH FALLING BOND YIELDS... The main feature of the week was a falling dollar, which was the result of falling bond yields. Chart 1 shows the 10-year T-note yield trading at the lowest level in a month. Falling U.S. rates weaken the dollar. Chart 2 shows the...
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MARKET SHRUGS OFF BAD NEWS -- BOND YIELDS AND DOLLAR DROP -- COMMODITIES AND FOREIGN ETFS GAIN -- JAPAN IS TOP PERFORMER -- CONSUMER STAPLES AND HEALTHCARE SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP -- WELLPOINT BREAKS OUT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEEKLY WRAPUP ... The market shrugged off some bad news on Friday from Microsoft and the housing sector to end either flat or modestly higher. That's actually a pretty good performance. Bond yields and the dollar continued to weaken which boosted commodities (especially gold and oil) and foreign ETFs....
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BREWERS KEEP GETTING AHEAD -- SOME DOW BREAKOUTS -- JB HUNT SHOWS NEW TRANSPORTATION LEADERSHIP -- QUALCOMM LEADS NASDAQ 100 HIGHER -- BOUNCING YEN BOOSTS JAPAN ISHARES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BUDWEISER TESTS RECORD HIGHS ... Brewers have become consumer staple leaders. Last Friday I showed Molson Coors (TAP) breaking out to a new high (Chart 1). The beer stock is up 5% today and is the strongest stock in the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP). Right behind it is Anheuser Busch (BUD)...
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DOW HITS ANOTER NEW RECORD -- NASDAQ SURGES OFF 50-DAY -- THREE BIG TECHS TAKE THE LEAD -- SOX STILL TRENDING LOWER - BONDS SURGE -- US DOLLAR INDEX BREAKS SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GENTLE BEN SPARKS THE DOW... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor
Comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke sparked a rally on Wall Street and the Dow surged to another record high on Wednesday. The Fed Chairman indicated that...
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RECORD US TRADE DEFICIT BOOSTS FOREIGN CURRENCIES -- THAT'S HELPING CANADIAN AND JAPANESE ETFS -- RELATIVE STRENGTH CHARTS SUGGEST THAT JAPAN IS STARTING TO RISE AGAIN -- CHARTING GOLD IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CANADIAN DOLLAR AND JAPANESE YEN ARE BOUNCING ... Two of the weaker foreign currencies of late have been the Canadian Dollar and the Japanese yen. [Both are included in the Dollar Index basket]. Today's announcement of a record U.S. trade deficit for 2006 (which was even higher than...
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ENERGY ETFS WEAKEN WITH OIL -- MORTGAGE LENDER AND REITS SELLOFF -- COVENTRY HEALTHCARE AND TYSON HAVE STRONG DAYS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ENERGY ETFS ARE AVERAGING DOWN... On Friday, crude oil breached the important $60 resistance barrier intra-day, but couldn't hold the gain. In today's trading, crude is down more than $2. Energy ETFs are struggling with some resistance barriers of their own. Chart 1 shows the Energy...
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GOLD HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH AS OIL CLEARS $60 -- PULLBACK IN HOMEBUILDERS SOFTENS MARKET -- BIG TECHS WEIGH ON NASDAQ -- SO DOES THE SOX -- S&P 500 MAY RETEST ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- EXELON BREAKS OUT WITH UTILITIES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
COMMODITIES CONTINUE TO RALLY ... Commodity markets continue the rally that started a month ago. Thirteen of the nineteen commodities in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index are in the black. Among the day's CRB leaders are copper, wheat, sugar, gold, aluminum, crude oil and silver. Crude exceeded $60 for...
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WHY EURO IS MORE CLOSELY CORRELATED WITH DOLLAR INDEX THAN THE YEN -- YEN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AGAINST DOLLAR AND EURO -- TRENDS IN FOREIGN CURRENCIES IMPACT RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF THEIR STOCK ETFS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WHY YEN AND USD SOMETIMES DROP TOGETHER ... Normally when I discuss the direction of the U.S. Dollar, I use the U.S. Dollar Index (USD). The USD measures the dollar against six foreign currecies. In my view, it gives a truer picture of dollar trends. Following my dollar article...
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NASDAQ 100 RECAPTURES 1800 -- CISCO GAPS HIGHER -- INTERNET STOCKS TAKE THE LEAD -- NYSE AD LINE SHOWS BROAD PARTICIPATION -- USING THE STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR -- NASDAQ OVERBOUGHT AND BULLISH -- DOW MIRRORS NASDAQ SITUATION
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NASDAQ 100 MAKES A MOVE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor
The Nasdaq 100 took the lead on Wednesday with a surge above 1800. This move reinforces support at 1750 and keeps the medium-term uptrend alive. Support around...
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DOLLAR DIRECTION IMPACTS FOREIGN STOCKS AS WELL AS GOLD -- BOND YIELDS BACK DOWN AS UTILITIES BREAKOUT -- FALLING SOX WEIGHS ON NASDAQ -- INTERNATIONAL PAPER AND MEADWESTVACO JOIN PAPER RALLY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FALLING DOLLAR FAVORS FOREIGN STOCKS ... One of our readers asked why I haven't mentioned the impact of the dollar on foreign stocks. Actually, I've done so several times. Since the dollar is at a crucial juncture, however, this is as good a time as any to...
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CORRECTION ON CHART 6 OF FRIDAY MESSAGE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WRONG AVERAGE... Some of you with really sharp eyes may have noticed a mistake in the monthly S&P 500 chart that I posted on Friday. The chart was intended to show how the 13- and 34- month exponential moving averages (EMAs) had worked on the S&P...
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REVUE OF A SUCCESSFUL MOVING AVERAGE TECHNIQUE -- 13 AND 34 PERIOD EMAS ALSO WORK ON DAILIES AND MONTHLIES -- PLOT THE EMA SPREAD FOR BETTER TIMING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEEKLY EMAS STILL WORK... Last July, I reviewed a moving average technique that used weekly exponential moving averages. [I first described this system in October 2005]. I'm revisiting it today because it continues to do remarkably well. And I'd like to suggest expanding its usefulness. The...
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DOLLAR INDEX STALLS AT 200-DAY AVERAGE -- GOLD ETF HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH -- ENERGY BPI TURNS UP WITH ENERGY STOCKS -- ALL THREE DOW AVERAGES ARE RISING -- TRANSPORTS ARE CLOSE TO NEW RECORD HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FED STATEMENT WEAKENS THE DOLLAR ... Yesterday's Fed wording about moderating inflation pressures weakened the U.S. dollar (because it virtually ruled out any Fed tightening in the near future). This comes at an important time for the dollar. Chart 1 shows the U.S. Dollar Index (plotted through...
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