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SMALL-CAPS ATTEMPT A BREAKOUT -- TRANSPORTS SURGE IN JANUARY -- TRUCKERS AND RAILROADS ROLL -- US DOLLAR AND BONDS CONTINUE INVERSE RELATIONSHIP -- EURO SURGES OFF SUPPORT -- BONDS GET OVERSOLD BOUNCE -- DOW JONES INDUSTRY GROUPS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RUSSELL 2000 CHALLENGES DECEMBER HIGH... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor The Russell 2000 is making a breakout bid that would bode well for the overall market. While the Dow and the S&P 500 moved higher...   READ MORE 

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TELECOM LEADERSHIP CONTINUES AS VERIZON ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- RISING RATES FUND IS RISING WITH BOND YIELDS -- NATURAL GAS STOCKS LEAD ENERGY SECTOR HIGH -- APACHE CORP IS BREAKING OUT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TELECOM LEADERSHIP CONTINUES... I wrote a positive article on the telecom group on June 19 of last year with headlines like "AT&T Leads Telecom Group Higher" and "Telecom Holders Are Having a Good Year". Chart 1 is an updated version of a chart I...   READ MORE 

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LONGER TERM INDICATORS SUGGEST OVERBOUGHT MARKET AND SOME LOSS OF UPSIDE MOMENTUM -- INITIAL SUPPORT LEVELS, HOWEVER, ARE STILL HOLDING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

OVERLAYING RSI ON PRICE BARS ... Most chartists place indicators like RSI either above or below corresponding price bars. I like to overlay the indicator right on the price. To me, that makes for easier comparison between the two lines. Take Chart 1 for example. It overlays the 14-week RSI line...   READ MORE 

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UPSIDE BREAKOUT IN BOND YIELD WEIGHS ON HOMEBUILDERS AND MAY THREATEN MARKET RALLY -- MARKET SELLS OFF ON HEAVY VOLUME -- NASDAQ CLOSES BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BOND YIELDS REACH FIVE-MONTH HIGH ... The upturn in bond yields that started during December is starting to look more serious. Chart 1 shows the 10-year T-note yield trading over its late October peak (4.85%) and its 200-day moving average for the first time since August. A decisive close over...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ REBOUNDS WITH GAP -- MEASURING RELATIVE STRENGTH -- DISK DRIVE STOCKS POWER TECHS HIGHER -- FINANCE LEADS NY COMPOSITE TO ALL TIME HIGH -- RUSSELL MIDCAP ETF HITS ALL TIME HIGH -- USING RSI FOR TREND IDENTIFICATION

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NYSE COMPOSITE AND NASDAQ CONTINUE THEIR BATTLE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor Two weeks ago I wrote that the Nasdaq was holding up well and outperforming the NYSE Composite. The Nasdaq held firm the first five trading...   READ MORE 

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OVERSOLD COMMODITIES START RALLY ATTEMPT -- WEAKER DOLLAR PUSHES GOLD INTO TEST OF OVERHEAD RESISTANCE -- BOX SIZE MATTERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DB COMMODITY ETF IS RALLYING ... Last Friday I suggested that an overbought US Dollar Index was starting to back off potential resistance at its 200-day average. The dollar is dropping today against the Euro and is giving a boost to oversold commodity markets. I also suggested on Friday that commodity...   READ MORE 

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BULLISH PERCENT STILL UP BUT OVERBOUGHT -- ENERGY BPI IS STILL DOWN BUT OVERSOLD -- COMMODITY SELLING APPEARS OVERDONE -- CHEMICALS BENEFIT FROM DROP IN OIL PRICES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NYSE BULLISH PERCENT HISTORY ... I've received a few requests to update my December 8 article on the NYSE Bullish Percent Index. There are two ways of looking at it. One is a line chart as shown in Chart 1. The second, and more common way, is with a...   READ MORE 

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DRUG STOCKS ARE LEADING HEALTHCARE HIGHER -- ABBOTT LABS BREAKS OUT -- CHIPS PULL NASDAQ LOWER -- NASDAQ 100 BREAKS INITIAL SUPPORT ON HEAVY VOLUME

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTHCARE RS LINE MAY BE BOTTOMING ... On January 4, I wrote a message entitled: "Heathcare is Starting to Look Better". I showed the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) hitting a new record high. [It's doing so again today]. I pointed out, however, that its relative strength line was...   READ MORE 

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NASDAQ TAKES A BREATHER -- CISCO AND INTEL LEAD THE WAY LOWER -- SEMIS REMAIN RANGE BOUND -- HEALTHCARE SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH -- BRISTOL MEYERS BREAKS RESISTANCE -- ECONOMIC REPORTS PRESSURE BONDS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ PAUSES AFTER BREAKOUT ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor After breaking consolidation resistance last week, the Nasdaq took a breather and fell back below 2500 over the last two days. The pullback is relatively mild thus far...   READ MORE 

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RAILS AND TRUCKERS JOIN TRANPORT RALLY -- TRANSPORTATION ISHARES SURGE -- AIRLINE INDEX HITS THREE-YEAR HIGH -- TRANSPORTS PUSH INDUSTRIAL SPDR TO NEW HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO RALLY ON FALLING OIL ... With oil falling sharply today, transportation stocks are continuing their recent surge. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports gaining 2% and trading at the highest level in nearly two months. The TRAN crossed over its 50-day moving average on Friday. Its relative...   READ MORE 

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POINT & FIGURE CHARTS PROVIDE PRECISION, SIMPLICITY, AND DISCIPLINE TO TRADING DECISIONS -- BOX SIZE DOES MATTER -- USE THEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH BAR CHARTS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EXTREME SIMPLICITY ... One of our readers asked that I review some current point & figure charts. The beauty of p&f charts is the precision of buy and sell signals and their extreme simplicity. [P&F is also the oldest form of charting in the U.S.]. I...   READ MORE 

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COMMODITIES ARE OVERSOLD AND BOUNCING -- SO ARE STOCKS TIED TO COMMODITIES -- THE DOLLAR PULLS BACK FROM 200-DAY LINE -- BOND YIELDS REACH TWO-MONTH HIGH -- UPSIDE TARGETS FOR THE NASDAQ AND S&P 500

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

COMMODITY TRACKING FUND BOUNCES OFF CHART SUPPORT ... Commodities have been the weakest asset class over the last half year. Since last May, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index has lost 20%. Most of those losses, however, have come from the energy sector (with crude oil losing 30%). Smaller losses of 10%...   READ MORE 

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BIOTECHS AND TECHS GIVE NASDAQ NEW SIGNS OF UPSIDE LEADERSHIP -- GENENTECH, MICROSOFT, AND YAHOO HAVE GOOD CHART DAYS -- NASDAQ HITS NEW SIX-YEAR HIGH -- EMERGING MARKETS STABILIZE -- THE VIX FALLS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NEW NASDAQ LEADERSHIP ... The first part of the headline posted above is the same one I used last Thursday. At the time the Nasdaq Composite Index had bounced impressively off its 50-day moving average. And its relative strength line (versus the S&P 500) had turned up for the...   READ MORE 

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A TALE OF TWO MARKETS -- TECH SPDR CHALLENGES RESISTANCE -- INTEL LEADS SEMICONDUCTORS -- ALCOA SURGES ON BIG VOLUME -- THE RUSSELL 2000 IS STILL LAGGING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ LEADS THE WAY... It has been a tale of two markets in 2007. The Nasdaq has been working its way higher this year, but the NYSE Composite has been working its way lower. Even though we are only talking six trading days, something is happening here and we should...   READ MORE 

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KEEP AN EYE ON VOLATILITY -- 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGES ARE STILL HOLDING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

VIX IS TESTING OVERHEAD RESISTANCE ... One of the hallmarks of last year's strong stock market was unusually low market volatility. Some market strategists expect volatility to pick up this year. If it does, it could make for a more difficult year for stocks. That's because rising...   READ MORE 

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RISING RATES COULD LEAD TO STOCK MARKET CORRECTION -- DROP IN SMALL CAPS AND EMERGING MARKETS IS ANOTHER SHORT-TERM WARNING -- DOLLAR STRENGTHENS -- STOCK MARKET INDICATORS WEAKEN

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RISING RATES POSE A THREAT TO STOCKS ... On December 28, Arthur Hill showed an earlier version of Chart 1 which demonstrated that the stock market advance since mid-year had coincided with a drop in bond yields. As Mr. Hill pointed out, however, the TNX had already broken its six-month down...   READ MORE 

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STRONG JOBS NUMBER PUSHES RATES HIGHER ALONG WITH THE DOLLAR -- GOLD IS HIT HARD -- FALLING COMMODITIES CAUSE SELLING IN EMERGING MARKETS -- SMALL CAPS WEAKEN -- LOOK FOR WEEKEND UPDATE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

JUMP IN JOBS AND WAGES BOOST INTEREST RATES ... Today's report of an unexpected jump in new jobs during the month of December -- combined with a 0.5% jump in wages (for an annual rate of 4.2%)-- raised inflation concerns and is causing a jump in...   READ MORE 

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BIOTECHS AND TECHS GIVE NASDAQ NEW SIGNS OF UPSIDE LEADERSHIP -- INTEL LEADS CHIP BOUNCE -- SOX BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE -- NETWORKERS HIT NEW HIGHS -- INTERNET AND SOFTWARE GROUPS MAY BE NEXT

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NASDAQ LEADS MARKET HIGHER... Two good things happened today regarding the Nasdaq market. One is that it gained over a percentage point and bounced sharply off its 50-day moving average as shown in Chart 1. [The Nasdaq 100 did even better]. That kept the Nasdaq uptrend intact. The second good...   READ MORE 

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HEALTHCARE IS STARTING TO LOOK BETTER -- BIOTECHS AND DRUGS RALLY -- LEADERS ARE ABBOTT LABS, AMGEN, GENZYME, AND JNJ

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

HEALTHCARE WAS WEAKEST SECTOR IN 2006 ... Healthcare was the stock market's weakest sector during 2006. The Healthcare Sector SPDR (XLV) gained 5.4% for the entire year which put it -6.2% behind the S&P 500 which rose 11.6%. Possibly for that reason, a number...   READ MORE 

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A NEW BRIC ETF TRACKS WORLD'S LARGEST EMERGING MARKETS -- ASIA CONTINUES TO LEAD GLOBAL RALLY -- FALLING OIL PULLS COMMODITIES LOWER -- BUT BOOSTS AIRLINES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

BRIC ETF LEADS FOURTH QUARTER GAINS... Global markets continued to lead the U.S. market higher through the end of 2006 (and the first couple of days of the new year). Every region in the world did better than the U.S. during the fourth quarter. That includes (in order...   READ MORE 

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NYSE COMPOSITE LEADS 2006 -- NASDAQ 100 LAGS -- TOP PERFORMING SECTORS -- HEALTHCARE LAGS -- GOLD LEADS INTER-MARKET GROUP -- OIL REMAINS WEAK - LOOKING TO 2007

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NYSE TAKES TOP HONORS...... NOTE: Today's update is provided by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. The NYSE Composite gained over 15% in 2006 and was the best performing index for the year. That's a pretty good feat for such a broad index. This feat is even...   READ MORE 

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DOW HITS RECORD HIGH - ECONOMIC NEWS SINKS BONDS - INTEREST RATES SURGE - STOCKS VERSUS RATES - HOUSING STOCKS STALL - GOLD GAPS HIGHER

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOW MAKES IT SIX STRAIGHT...... NOTE: Today's update is provided by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. Barring a 280 point decline on Friday, the Dow is set to close higher in December and finish the year with a bang. The Dow is now up 6 consecutive months and...   READ MORE 

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HOLIDAY VOLUME KICKS IN -- NASDAQ BOUNCES OFF 50-DAY -- SMALL-CAPS GET INTO THE SPIRIT -- OIL FALLS SHARPLY -- OIL SERVICE STOCKS FOLLOW CRUDE LOWER -- AIRLINES GET A LIFT -- JETBLUE LEADS AIRLINE STOCKS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

STOCKS FIRM ON HOLIDAY VOLUME...... NOTE: Today's update is provided by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. After a three day fall leading up to Christmas, stocks firmed in thin trading on Tuesday. The NYSE Composite ended the day with modest gains and NYSE volume was less than half...   READ MORE 

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TRANSPORT DROP MAY WARN OF PROBLEMS FOR THE DOW -- A HISTORICAL LOOK AT DOW THEORY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

THE DOW TRANSPORTS ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE ... One of the more notable patches of weakness over the last week was the transportation stocks. On the week, the Dow Transports fell more than 4% and were by far the market's weakest group. At the same time, the Dow Industrials...   READ MORE 

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COPPER FALLS TO EIGHT-MONTH LOW ON SLOWING ECONOMY -- COMMODITIES ARE UNDER PRESSURE -- WATCH THE 50 -DAY MOVING AVERAGE FOR BUY AND SELL SIGNALS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FALLING COPPER HINTS AT ECONOMIC WEAKNESS... Copper prices are usually viewed as a measure of economic strength. That's because it's used in things like autos and housing. It may not be a coincidence then to read that copper prices have fallen to the lowest level in...   READ MORE 

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THE CHART RULES FOR SELLING ARE THE SAME AS THE ONES FOR BUYING -- ENERGY SPDR IS RETESTING ITS RECENT BREAKOUT POINT --

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

USE THE SAME INDICATORS ... One of readers asked how to determine sell signals for stocks and stock groups. The answer is to use the same chart criteria for selling that are used for buying. Take moving averages for example. A stock in a long-term uptrend gives a buy signal when...   READ MORE 

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EMERGING MARKET SELLOFF STABILIZES -- PRECIOUS METALS BOUNCE ON FALLING DOLLAR -- NASDAQ STILL IN TRADING RANGE -- SMALL CAP INDEX TESTS ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EMERGING MARKET SELLOFF HAS STABILIZED... Thailand's earlier decision to put controls on foreign money invested in its stock market caused an initial plunge in that country's stock market, and nervous selling across other emerging markets. The central bank quickly excluded stock investments from their currency controls...   READ MORE 

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THE MARKET RALLY STILL FAVORS LARGE CAPS -- SMALL AND MID-CAP INDEXES ARE STALLED AT MAY HIGH -- SIX YEARS OF SMALL-CAP LEADERSHIP MAY HAVE ENDED

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

SMALLER STOCKS STILL HAVEN'T BROKEN OUT ... A lot has been said and written about the fact that the current market rally has been driven mainly by large cap stocks. So today's story isn't exactly new. It does, however, appear to support the idea that...   READ MORE 

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RETAILERS LEAD MARKET RALLY -- NASDAQ CONSOLIDATION LOOKS TO BE RESOLVING TO THE UPSIDE -- BLUE CHIP INDEXES HIT NEW HIGHS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

RETAILERS LEAD RALLY ... Good news from Costco following on the heels of yesterday's strong retail report has ignited the retail sector which is leading the rest of the market higher today. On a percentage basis, the day's strongest ETF is the Retail Holders (RTH) shown in...   READ MORE 

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USE 200-DAY LINE ON RELATIVE STRENGTH CHARTS AS A SCREENING DEVICE -- SEMICONDUCTOR UPTREND IS IN DOUBT -- AIRLINES AND ENERGY ARE ON BUY SIGNALS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

ANOTHER WAY TO SCREEN MARKET GROUPS ... I'm a big believer in being in the strongest parts of the market -- and avoiding the weakest. There are lots of ways to do that. The Stockchart Performance Charts, for example, rank the various market sectors and industry groups over any...   READ MORE 

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VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED SINCE LAST UPDATE -- FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED -- MARKET SHOWS SLIGHT TILT TOWARD DEFENSIVE SHARES -- UTILITIES ARE STRONGER THAN TRANSPORTS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

VIX STILL HASN'T GIVEN A TRADING SIGNAL ... At the start of November, I wrote about the potential threat to the market of an upturn in the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index. At the time, I explained that the VIX had to break through some overhead resistance levels to cause...   READ MORE 

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SENTIMENT INDICATORS SHOW AN MARKET ENTERING OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY -- BUT THE TREND OF THE INDICATORS IS STILL UP

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

% NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGES ... I've received requests to look at some long-term market sentiment indicators. I've chosen a couple that you can plot by yourself on Stockcharts. One of those is the % of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average ($NYA200R). That's the...   READ MORE 

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DOLLAR IS IN LONG-TERM DECLINE -- GOLD PULLS BACK FROM SHORT-TERM OVERBOUGHT CONDITION -- FALLING BOND YIELDS BOOST TWO HOUSING ETFS -- USING POINT & FIGURE CHARTS FOR SHORT-TERM SELL SIGNALS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

LONG-TERM DOLLAR TREND IS DOWN... One of our readers asked to see a long-term chart of the US Dollar Index. Chart 1 shows the Dollar Index from 1984 to the present. The USD lost half of its value from 1985 to 1990 (falling from 160 to 80). It bounced off...   READ MORE 

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MANUFACTURING SLOWDOWN CAUSES PROFIT-TAKING IN STOCKS -- SHORT-TERM INDICATORS STILL SUGGEST MARKET IS IN NEED OF A BREATHER -- NBR INTERVIEW THIS EVENING

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

NBR INTERVIEW TONIGHT ... I'm scheduled to be the Friday night Market Monitor guest on the Nightly Business Report with Paul Kangas this evening. The TV show airs on Channel 13 (PBS) and runs from 6:30 to 7:00 pm NYT. The guest usually appears midway through the...   READ MORE 

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DOLLAR FALLS TO NEW 20-MONTH LOW -- THAT'S BOOSTING COMMODITIES AND FOREIGN STOCKS -- JAPANESE STOCKS ARE FINALLY BOUNCING -- TEN-MONTH LOW IN BOND YIELDS IS HURTING BANKS -- BUT HELPING HOMEBUILDERS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR PLUNGE BOOSTS COMMODITY ASSETS ... As you well know by now, a falling dollar boosts commodity prices and precious metals in particular. The U.S. Dollar Index has fallen to another 20-month low today (the British Pound is trading at the highest level in 14 years). And, not surprisingly, commodity...   READ MORE 

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FALLING DOLLAR IS BOOSTING COMMODITIES -- CONTINUOUS COMMODITY INDEX PAINTS STRONGER PICTURE THAN CRB INDEX-- A COMPARISON OF TWO COMMODITY FUNDS -- STRONGER ENERGY SHARES HINT AT OIL BOTTOM -- WHY STOCK RALLY INCREASES ODDS FOR ANOTHER COMMODITY RALLY

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

TWO DIFFERENT LOOKS AT COMMODITY TREND... When we talk about the trend of commodities in general, it's important to know which trend we're looking at. The next two charts show two versions of the commodity price trend. Chart 1 shows the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index having...   READ MORE 

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PLUNGING DOLLAR RATTLES STOCKS -- PRECIOUS METALS GAIN -- SO DOES THE FALLING DOLLAR FUND -- S&P 500 SIGNALS SHORT-TERM TOP -- THE NASDAQ MAY RETEST ITS SPRING HIGH

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

DOLLAR INDEX FALLS TO SPRING LOW... Last Wednesday I wrote about the likelihood of the U.S. Dollar Index heading for a test of its spring low. [I also wrote about the long-term negative implications for the dollar if it were to break that low]. The daily bars in Chart...   READ MORE 

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EXPECTATIONS FOR ECONOMIC SLOWING AND FALLING US RATES PUSH DOLLAR SHARPLY LOWER -- THE EURO IS NEARING ITS 2006 HIGH AS OTHER CURRENCIES JUMP -- PROFUNDS FALLING DOLLAR FUND RISES WHEN THE DOLLAR FALLS

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

FOREIGN CURRENCIES SURGE AGAINST WEAK DOLLAR ... A government report predicting a slower American economy in the first half of next year is having a bearish impact on the U.S. Dollar and a bullish impact on foreign currencies. Chart 1 shows the Euro moving up to challenge its 2006 highs....   READ MORE 

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INITIAL PRECIOUS METAL BUY SIGNALS ARE STILL INTACT -- SHORT-TERM STOCK INDICATORS ARE OVERBOUGHT, BUT INTERMEDIATE TREND STILL FAVORS HIGHER STOCK MARKET PRICES

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

EARLIER PRECIOUS METAL BUY SIGNALS ARE STILL INTACT ... Given my somewhat cautious comments on precious metals last week, one of our readers asked if recent point & figure buy signals that I pointed out are still intact. The answer is "yes". Last week I pointed out that gold...   READ MORE 

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JAPAN LAGS BEHIND PACIFIC REGION -- GOLD MIGHT BE THE REASON -- FALLING COMMODITIES ARE HURTING CANADA AND EMERGING MARKETS -- HOMEBUILDNG STOCKS RALLY IN FACE OF BEARISH NEWS -- HOME DEPOT ENDS STRONG

by John Murphy,

Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

PACIFIC EX-JAPAN ETF HITS NEW HIGH ... I wrote recently about strong uptrends in China and Hong Kong. I was asked by one reader why I hadn't included Japan. The reason is because Japan isn't doing nearly as well as the rest of Asia and the Pacific...   READ MORE