ENERGY ETFS ARE AVERAGING DOWN... On Friday, crude oil breached the important $60 resistance barrier intra-day, but couldn't hold the gain. In today's trading, crude is down more than $2. Energy ETFs are struggling with some resistance barriers of their own. Chart 1 shows the Energy... READ MORE
COMMODITIES CONTINUE TO RALLY ... Commodity markets continue the rally that started a month ago. Thirteen of the nineteen commodities in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index are in the black. Among the day's CRB leaders are copper, wheat, sugar, gold, aluminum, crude oil and silver. Crude exceeded $60 for... READ MORE
WHY YEN AND USD SOMETIMES DROP TOGETHER ... Normally when I discuss the direction of the U.S. Dollar, I use the U.S. Dollar Index (USD). The USD measures the dollar against six foreign currecies. In my view, it gives a truer picture of dollar trends. Following my dollar article... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 MAKES A MOVE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor The Nasdaq 100 took the lead on Wednesday with a surge above 1800. This move reinforces support at 1750 and keeps the medium-term uptrend alive. Support around... READ MORE
FALLING DOLLAR FAVORS FOREIGN STOCKS ... One of our readers asked why I haven't mentioned the impact of the dollar on foreign stocks. Actually, I've done so several times. Since the dollar is at a crucial juncture, however, this is as good a time as any to... READ MORE
WRONG AVERAGE... Some of you with really sharp eyes may have noticed a mistake in the monthly S&P 500 chart that I posted on Friday. The chart was intended to show how the 13- and 34- month exponential moving averages (EMAs) had worked on the S&P... READ MORE
WEEKLY EMAS STILL WORK... Last July, I reviewed a moving average technique that used weekly exponential moving averages. [I first described this system in October 2005]. I'm revisiting it today because it continues to do remarkably well. And I'd like to suggest expanding its usefulness. The... READ MORE
FED STATEMENT WEAKENS THE DOLLAR ... Yesterday's Fed wording about moderating inflation pressures weakened the U.S. dollar (because it virtually ruled out any Fed tightening in the near future). This comes at an important time for the dollar. Chart 1 shows the U.S. Dollar Index (plotted through... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 CHALLENGES DECEMBER HIGH... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor The Russell 2000 is making a breakout bid that would bode well for the overall market. While the Dow and the S&P 500 moved higher... READ MORE
TELECOM LEADERSHIP CONTINUES... I wrote a positive article on the telecom group on June 19 of last year with headlines like "AT&T Leads Telecom Group Higher" and "Telecom Holders Are Having a Good Year". Chart 1 is an updated version of a chart I... READ MORE
OVERLAYING RSI ON PRICE BARS ... Most chartists place indicators like RSI either above or below corresponding price bars. I like to overlay the indicator right on the price. To me, that makes for easier comparison between the two lines. Take Chart 1 for example. It overlays the 14-week RSI line... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS REACH FIVE-MONTH HIGH ... The upturn in bond yields that started during December is starting to look more serious. Chart 1 shows the 10-year T-note yield trading over its late October peak (4.85%) and its 200-day moving average for the first time since August. A decisive close over... READ MORE
NYSE COMPOSITE AND NASDAQ CONTINUE THEIR BATTLE... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor Two weeks ago I wrote that the Nasdaq was holding up well and outperforming the NYSE Composite. The Nasdaq held firm the first five trading... READ MORE
DB COMMODITY ETF IS RALLYING ... Last Friday I suggested that an overbought US Dollar Index was starting to back off potential resistance at its 200-day average. The dollar is dropping today against the Euro and is giving a boost to oversold commodity markets. I also suggested on Friday that commodity... READ MORE
NYSE BULLISH PERCENT HISTORY ... I've received a few requests to update my December 8 article on the NYSE Bullish Percent Index. There are two ways of looking at it. One is a line chart as shown in Chart 1. The second, and more common way, is with a... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE RS LINE MAY BE BOTTOMING ... On January 4, I wrote a message entitled: "Heathcare is Starting to Look Better". I showed the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) hitting a new record high. [It's doing so again today]. I pointed out, however, that its relative strength line was... READ MORE
NASDAQ PAUSES AFTER BREAKOUT ... Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill. John Murphy will be back tomorrow. - Editor After breaking consolidation resistance last week, the Nasdaq took a breather and fell back below 2500 over the last two days. The pullback is relatively mild thus far... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO RALLY ON FALLING OIL ... With oil falling sharply today, transportation stocks are continuing their recent surge. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports gaining 2% and trading at the highest level in nearly two months. The TRAN crossed over its 50-day moving average on Friday. Its relative... READ MORE
EXTREME SIMPLICITY ... One of our readers asked that I review some current point & figure charts. The beauty of p&f charts is the precision of buy and sell signals and their extreme simplicity. [P&F is also the oldest form of charting in the U.S.]. I... READ MORE
COMMODITY TRACKING FUND BOUNCES OFF CHART SUPPORT ... Commodities have been the weakest asset class over the last half year. Since last May, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index has lost 20%. Most of those losses, however, have come from the energy sector (with crude oil losing 30%). Smaller losses of 10%... READ MORE
NEW NASDAQ LEADERSHIP ... The first part of the headline posted above is the same one I used last Thursday. At the time the Nasdaq Composite Index had bounced impressively off its 50-day moving average. And its relative strength line (versus the S&P 500) had turned up for the... READ MORE
NASDAQ LEADS THE WAY... It has been a tale of two markets in 2007. The Nasdaq has been working its way higher this year, but the NYSE Composite has been working its way lower. Even though we are only talking six trading days, something is happening here and we should... READ MORE
VIX IS TESTING OVERHEAD RESISTANCE ... One of the hallmarks of last year's strong stock market was unusually low market volatility. Some market strategists expect volatility to pick up this year. If it does, it could make for a more difficult year for stocks. That's because rising... READ MORE
RISING RATES POSE A THREAT TO STOCKS ... On December 28, Arthur Hill showed an earlier version of Chart 1 which demonstrated that the stock market advance since mid-year had coincided with a drop in bond yields. As Mr. Hill pointed out, however, the TNX had already broken its six-month down... READ MORE
JUMP IN JOBS AND WAGES BOOST INTEREST RATES ... Today's report of an unexpected jump in new jobs during the month of December -- combined with a 0.5% jump in wages (for an annual rate of 4.2%)-- raised inflation concerns and is causing a jump in... READ MORE
NASDAQ LEADS MARKET HIGHER... Two good things happened today regarding the Nasdaq market. One is that it gained over a percentage point and bounced sharply off its 50-day moving average as shown in Chart 1. [The Nasdaq 100 did even better]. That kept the Nasdaq uptrend intact. The second good... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE WAS WEAKEST SECTOR IN 2006 ... Healthcare was the stock market's weakest sector during 2006. The Healthcare Sector SPDR (XLV) gained 5.4% for the entire year which put it -6.2% behind the S&P 500 which rose 11.6%. Possibly for that reason, a number... READ MORE
BRIC ETF LEADS FOURTH QUARTER GAINS... Global markets continued to lead the U.S. market higher through the end of 2006 (and the first couple of days of the new year). Every region in the world did better than the U.S. during the fourth quarter. That includes (in order... READ MORE
NYSE TAKES TOP HONORS...... NOTE: Today's update is provided by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. The NYSE Composite gained over 15% in 2006 and was the best performing index for the year. That's a pretty good feat for such a broad index. This feat is even... READ MORE
DOW MAKES IT SIX STRAIGHT...... NOTE: Today's update is provided by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. Barring a 280 point decline on Friday, the Dow is set to close higher in December and finish the year with a bang. The Dow is now up 6 consecutive months and... READ MORE
STOCKS FIRM ON HOLIDAY VOLUME...... NOTE: Today's update is provided by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. After a three day fall leading up to Christmas, stocks firmed in thin trading on Tuesday. The NYSE Composite ended the day with modest gains and NYSE volume was less than half... READ MORE
THE DOW TRANSPORTS ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE ... One of the more notable patches of weakness over the last week was the transportation stocks. On the week, the Dow Transports fell more than 4% and were by far the market's weakest group. At the same time, the Dow Industrials... READ MORE
FALLING COPPER HINTS AT ECONOMIC WEAKNESS... Copper prices are usually viewed as a measure of economic strength. That's because it's used in things like autos and housing. It may not be a coincidence then to read that copper prices have fallen to the lowest level in... READ MORE
USE THE SAME INDICATORS ... One of readers asked how to determine sell signals for stocks and stock groups. The answer is to use the same chart criteria for selling that are used for buying. Take moving averages for example. A stock in a long-term uptrend gives a buy signal when... READ MORE
EMERGING MARKET SELLOFF HAS STABILIZED... Thailand's earlier decision to put controls on foreign money invested in its stock market caused an initial plunge in that country's stock market, and nervous selling across other emerging markets. The central bank quickly excluded stock investments from their currency controls... READ MORE
SMALLER STOCKS STILL HAVEN'T BROKEN OUT ... A lot has been said and written about the fact that the current market rally has been driven mainly by large cap stocks. So today's story isn't exactly new. It does, however, appear to support the idea that... READ MORE
RETAILERS LEAD RALLY ... Good news from Costco following on the heels of yesterday's strong retail report has ignited the retail sector which is leading the rest of the market higher today. On a percentage basis, the day's strongest ETF is the Retail Holders (RTH) shown in... READ MORE
ANOTHER WAY TO SCREEN MARKET GROUPS ... I'm a big believer in being in the strongest parts of the market -- and avoiding the weakest. There are lots of ways to do that. The Stockchart Performance Charts, for example, rank the various market sectors and industry groups over any... READ MORE
VIX STILL HASN'T GIVEN A TRADING SIGNAL ... At the start of November, I wrote about the potential threat to the market of an upturn in the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index. At the time, I explained that the VIX had to break through some overhead resistance levels to cause... READ MORE
% NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGES ... I've received requests to look at some long-term market sentiment indicators. I've chosen a couple that you can plot by yourself on Stockcharts. One of those is the % of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average ($NYA200R). That's the... READ MORE