LONG-TERM DOLLAR TREND IS DOWN... One of our readers asked to see a long-term chart of the US Dollar Index. Chart 1 shows the Dollar Index from 1984 to the present. The USD lost half of its value from 1985 to 1990 (falling from 160 to 80). It bounced off... READ MORE
NBR INTERVIEW TONIGHT ... I'm scheduled to be the Friday night Market Monitor guest on the Nightly Business Report with Paul Kangas this evening. The TV show airs on Channel 13 (PBS) and runs from 6:30 to 7:00 pm NYT. The guest usually appears midway through the... READ MORE
DOLLAR PLUNGE BOOSTS COMMODITY ASSETS ... As you well know by now, a falling dollar boosts commodity prices and precious metals in particular. The U.S. Dollar Index has fallen to another 20-month low today (the British Pound is trading at the highest level in 14 years). And, not surprisingly, commodity... READ MORE
TWO DIFFERENT LOOKS AT COMMODITY TREND... When we talk about the trend of commodities in general, it's important to know which trend we're looking at. The next two charts show two versions of the commodity price trend. Chart 1 shows the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index having... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX FALLS TO SPRING LOW... Last Wednesday I wrote about the likelihood of the U.S. Dollar Index heading for a test of its spring low. [I also wrote about the long-term negative implications for the dollar if it were to break that low]. The daily bars in Chart... READ MORE
FOREIGN CURRENCIES SURGE AGAINST WEAK DOLLAR ... A government report predicting a slower American economy in the first half of next year is having a bearish impact on the U.S. Dollar and a bullish impact on foreign currencies. Chart 1 shows the Euro moving up to challenge its 2006 highs.... READ MORE
EARLIER PRECIOUS METAL BUY SIGNALS ARE STILL INTACT ... Given my somewhat cautious comments on precious metals last week, one of our readers asked if recent point & figure buy signals that I pointed out are still intact. The answer is "yes". Last week I pointed out that gold... READ MORE
PACIFIC EX-JAPAN ETF HITS NEW HIGH ... I wrote recently about strong uptrends in China and Hong Kong. I was asked by one reader why I hadn't included Japan. The reason is because Japan isn't doing nearly as well as the rest of Asia and the Pacific... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS NEAR MAY HIGH ... One of our readers asked about the lack of upside confirmation by the Dow Transports. According to Dow Theory, a bull market rally should be confirmed by new highs in both the transports and the industrials. Those concerns are being reduced by this week's... READ MORE
BIG DROP IN PPI HELDS BONDS AND BUILDERS... The biggest drop in core wholesale inflation in thirteen years had a beneficial effect on bonds and stocks today. [The only group that lost ground was basic materials which are tied to commodity prices like copper which have been falling]. The huge... READ MORE
LAM RESEARCH AND NVIDIA NEAR RECORD HIGHS ... On Friday, I listed a number of large technology stocks that were leading the Nasdaq market higher. With the Nasdaq market finally exceeding its spring highs (and leading the rest of the market higher today), I thought I'd look at some... READ MORE
A VISUAL COMPARISON WITH THE NYSE ... On Wednesday, I wrote that the Nasdaq market could start doing better than the broader market. The main reason simply has to do with the fact that the Nasdaq is cheap relative to NYSE issues. Chart 1 is a simple visual comparison of the... READ MORE
PRICE OF DEMOCRATIC VICTORY... Yesterday I showed drug stocks selling off on heavy volume. That continued again today and spread to the entire healthcare sector which was the day's weakest group. Chart 1 shows the Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV) not only breaking its 50-day moving average (for... READ MORE
THE CHINESE MAY DIVERSIFY AWAY FROM THE DOLLAR ... I've been writing recently about new signs of weakness in the U.S. Dollar. Two side-effects of a weaker dollar are stronger foreign stock markets (especially foreign ETFs) and stronger commodity markets, especially precious metals. Reuters reported today that China... READ MORE
PHARM HOLDERS SELL OFF ON VOLUME ... The Democratic victory in yesterday's midterm election caused some selling in the healthcare sector today and drug stocks in particular. As a result, the day's weakest stock ETF was the Pharm Holders. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the... READ MORE
FOREIGN ETFS CONFIRM US BREAKOUT ... One of the recent concerns among market analysts was the lack of upside confirmation by foreign markets. Although most of the U.S. stock indexes have cleared their spring highs, foreign markets had been lagging behind. That's no longer the case. Chart 1... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS JUMP SHARPLY ... Unexpectedly strong job figures caught the bond market by surprise today and pushed bond yields sharply higher. The latest unemployment number fell to a five year low and payroll numbers for August and September were revised sharply higher. In addition, wages rose more than expected. Rising... READ MORE
INDIA HAS BEEN A WORLD LEADER ... I've received requests to look at some of the world's leading foreign markets. I thought I'd take the opportunity to look at some the big Asian leaders that I haven't written about before. This is also... READ MORE
PREVIOUS CYCLE BOTTOMS SAW A HIGHER VIX ... There was a lot of discussion about the four-year cycle at the conference of the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA) in Switzerland. Most of the discussion centered around the unusual nature of this year's rally. In most instances, the market... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS FALL SHARPLY ... An unexpected drop in September consumer confidence and a drop in manufacturing activity have raised fears of an economic slowdown. That's pushing bond prices higher and bond yields lower. Chart 1 shows the 10-year T-note yield falling to the lowest level in a month... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX FAILS TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE -- EURO CLEARS 50-DAY LINE ... The last time I showed the U.S. Dollar Index, it was testing its July high and its 200-day moving. Since then it has weakened noticeably. Chart 1 (plotted through Friday) shows the USD falling below its 50-day... READ MORE
A BIG WEEK FOR STOCKS... EDITOR'S NOTE: John is travelling this week. Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. John will be back next week. The bulls were out in force this week. The Dow and NYSE Composite reached all time highs,... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 AND NASDAQ LEAD BROAD ADVANCE ... Editor's Note: John Murphy is travelling this week and will return on Monday. The follow article was written by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. Stocks were broadly higher on Thursday with the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq leading the way. Large-caps from... READ MORE
THE FED DOES AS EXPECTED... Editor's Note: John is travelling this week and will be back next Monday. Today's Market Message was written by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. For the third straight time, the Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds target unchanged at 5.25%... READ MORE
OIL SERVICE HOLDRS BREAKS RESISTANCE... NOTE: John is travelling this week and will be back next Monday. Today's update is provided by Arthur Hill of TDTrader.com. The Oil Service HOLDRS (OIH) led a rebound in the Energy sector on Tuesday with a surge above 134. This move... READ MORE
BIG BLUE HITS NEW 52-WEEK HIGH ... Two of the stocks that are leading the Dow to new highs are IBM and Walmart. That's interesting because both blue chips have been market laggards for a long time. Not anymore. Chart 1 shows IBM breaking through the highs of late... READ MORE
AIRLINES BENEFIT FROM FALLING OIL ... One of the cliches of the market is that the transportation sector is very energy sensitive. Over the last few years, however, that hasn't necessarily been the case. Rails and truckers have done reasonably well in the face of rising energy prices. Part... READ MORE
BOUNCE IN ENERGY SECTOR ... With the Nasdaq starting to slip a bit, and the Dow struggling with psychologicl resistance around 12,000 (in a generally overbought market), one of our readers if there were any new signs that the market was turning a bit defensive. Actually there are, but they&... READ MORE
DRUGS REACH NEW FOUR-YEAR HIGH ... Drug stocks were the day's strongest market group today. That's coming at a very good time for this formerly neglected group. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the AMEX Pharmaceutical Index (DRG) breaking through its early 2004 peak to reach... READ MORE
NASDAQ LEADS MARKET LOWER ... Yesterday I wrote about the Nasdaq market being up against potential chart resistance at its spring high and the possibility of at least a pullback from that level. Adding to that concern is the fact that the Nasdaq (and the rest of the market) is over-extended.... READ MORE
NYSE HITS NEW RECORD ... The market passed one test today and has another one right behind that one. Chart 1 shows the New York Composite Index clearing its May high to reach a new record. That puts it in upward sync with the Dow and the S&P 500.... READ MORE
NASDAQ NEARS ITS SPRING HIGH ... It seems like the market has to prove itself every time a major stock index approaches a previous peak. With all of the attention being given to upside breakouts in the Dow and the S&P 500, it shouldn't go unnoticed that... READ MORE
ENERGY SPDR BOUNCES OFF 2006 LOWS ... With oil prices starting to bounce, money is flowing back into the energy sector. Earlier in the week I showed the Energy Select SPDR (XLE) stabilizing above chart support formed along its 2006 lows. I suggested that the group looked oversold. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
BOLLINGER BANDS SHOW OVER-EXTENDED MARKET... There are several ways to measure when a market has moved into overbought territory and is vulnerable to some profi-taking. One way is to use longer-range Bollinger bands. I've written in the past about converting weekly and monthly signals into daily ones. That... READ MORE
RETAIL HOLDERS ARE TESTING 2005 HIGHS... A lot of attention has been paid lately to upside breakouts by the Dow Industrials to record highs and the S&P 500 to a five and half year high. Chart 1 shows a market group that may be on the verge of... READ MORE
GENENTECH TURNS UP... Last week I showed upside breakouts in the biotech group. I focused on Amgen which is the bellwether of the group and one of its biggest stocks. Here's another big one. Chart 1 shows Genetech (DNA) moving up to challenge its July high. The green... READ MORE
EURO AND YEN TUMBLE ... The dollar is having one of its strongest days in months. Part of the reason is the drop in the U.S. September unemployment rate and some upward revisions in recent job creation. The report diminished hopes for rate reductions by the Fed in the near... READ MORE
NASDAQ IS UNDERVALUED RELATIVE TO THE BIG BOARD ... Earlier in the week I wrote a piece on the relationship between the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. One of our readers suggested using the NYSE Composite Index in place of the S&P because of its smaller reliance... READ MORE
DOW COMPOSITE BREAKS RESISTANCE LINE ... With all of the attention focused on the new record high reached by the Dow Industrials, I thought it a good time to revisit the Dow Jones Composite Index. The DJA includes all 65 stocks in the three Averages (30 industrials, 20 transports, and 15... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS AREN'T CONFIRMING INDUSTRIAL STRENGTH... Last Friday I gave a longer-term look at a lot of market indexes to demonstrate that the 2000 high hadn't been all that important to many of them. Some of them had already exceeded that long-term peak while several were... READ MORE