SPX AD Line and AD Volume Line Extend Uptrends
The advance may be slowing, but stocks continue to grind higher. The major index ETFs finished with small gains as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained .02% and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) advanced .14%. The sectors were mixed with the Technology SPDR (XLK) edging lower and the Finance SPDR (XLF) edging higher. The Healthcare SPDR (XLV) was the standout with a 1.09% gain. Retailers were also strong with the Retail SPDR (XRT) advancing .73% on the day. The charts below show the AD Line and AD Volume Line for the S&P 500. Both flattened out the last few days, but have yet to turn down and break first support, which is marked by last week's reaction low. A support break by both and an S&P 500 break below 1650 would be short-term bearish and suggest that a corrective process is unfolding. Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before Congress today and the markets will likely hang on every carefully said word.
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Key Reports and Events (all times Eastern):
Wed - May 22 - 07:00 - MBA Mortgage Index
Wed - May 22 - 10:00 - Existing Home Sales
Wed - May 22 - 10:00 - Bernanke Testifies before Congress
Wed - May 22 - 10:30 - Oil Inventories
Wed - May 22 - 14:00 - FOMC Minutes
Thu - May 23 - 08:30 - Jobless Claims
Thu - May 23 - 09:00 - FHFA Housing Price Index
Thu - May 23 - 10:00 - New Home Sales
Thu - May 23 - 10:30 - Natural Gas Inventories
Fri - May 24 - 08:30 - Durable Goods Orders
Charts of Interest: Tuesday and Thursday
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading our own accounts. First, it is
the only way to really learn. Second, we are the only ones responsible for our decisions.
Think of these charts as food for further analysis. Before making a trade, it is important
to have a plan. Plan the trade and trade the plan. Among other things, this includes setting
a trigger level, a target area and a stop-loss level. It is also important to plan for three
possible price movements: advance, decline or sideways. Have a plan for all three scenarios
BEFORE making the trade. Consider possible holding times. And finally, look at overall market
conditions and sector/industry performance.
