NBR INTERVIEW TONIGHT -- DOW AND NASDAQ ARE TESTING OIL HIGHS -- BE CAREFUL HERE
TV INTERVIEW TONIGHT ON CHANNEL 13 ... I'll be doing an interview with Paul Kangas on the Nightly Business Report this evening. The shows airs on Channel 13 and runs from 6:30 to 7:00 pm (NYT). The guest is usually interviewed in the second half of the show.
DOW AND NASDAQ REACH OLD HIGHS... Earlier today I suggested that rising bond yields and higher oil prices could threaten the stock market rally in the new year. This fits into my view that the market is in the last stages of the cyclical bull market that started in October 2002. As you know, I've been calling for the fourth quarter rally to last into the new year. The problem is so is everyone else. Hence a warning. When too many people are expecting the same thing, it's usually best to be careful. The two charts below show another reason to be cautious at this point. Both the Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq Composite have reached their February 2004 highs. Hopefully, they'll get through them eventually. But both those highs can also act as formidable resistance barriers. In my view, that's reason enough to be a little more cautious at current levels.
Chart 1
Chart 2
