Unrest in Libya is sparking the flight to safety trade in a big way. Libya produces around 1.8 million barrels of oil per day and accounts for a 2% of global output. Even though Saudia Arabia has around 3 million barrels of spare capacity, the market is concerned that... READ MORE
Except for natural gas, most major commodities and commodity groups are up sharply over the last 6-8 months. Stockcharts.com provides a broad range of Dow Jones-UBS commodity related indices. The PerfChart below shows seven commodity related indices and the 20+ year Bond ETF (TLT). Five represent major... READ MORE
The NYSE and Nasdaq most active lists are displayed on the Free Charts page and updated throughout the day. Seven of the ten most active on the NYSE were down in early trading on Friday. Seven of ten were up on the Nasdaq. Chartists can see charts for all ten... READ MORE
There is no change in the indicator summary. The AD Lines and AD Volume Line both surged to new 52-week highs this week. Major bearish reversals in the stock market are often preceded by bearish divergence in one or more of these indicators. With fresh 52-week highs, bearish... READ MORE
As you might expect, there is no change in the medium-term trend (daily chart) or short-term trend (60-minute chart). SPY is now up over 5% this month with gains on 11 of the last 14 days. In January, the index zigzagged higher with a choppy advance from... READ MORE
Dow Theory is built on the concept of confirmation. The Dow Transports should confirm a higher high in the Dow Industrials and visa versa. Failure to confirm signals that something might amiss. The Dow Industrials has been forging new highs throughout the month and the Dow Transports just made it... READ MORE
On the daily chart SPY surged on 1-Feb with a gap and long white candlestick that closed above 130. The advance continued after this surge with a grind higher. We can see bigger surge-grind patterns starting with the early September surge and the early December surge (green dotted... READ MORE
CHRW consolidates at support. NEM breaks short-term resistance. KSS breaks wedge resistance with volume. Plus AEO, INTC, LUB, QLGC and T ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF... READ MORE
The Lumber Continuous Futures ($LUMBER) remains in a clear uptrend with a series of higher highs and higher lows since late June. This advance (roughly) corresponds with an advance in the Home Construction iShares (ITB). ITB was a little shakey in October-November, but the etf has been moving higher... READ MORE
There is no change in the analysis for the 60-minute chart and daily chart. SPY gapped up the last two Monday's and both gaps held. The advance appears to be accelerating in February. Notice the sharp advances followed by short pullbacks this month. Yesterday's pullback... READ MORE
Intel is meeting some pretty stiff resistance around 22, but the overall trend remains up. The stock formed a big bearish engulfing in early December and a harami on Thursday-Friday. Even though harami are potentially bearish candlestick patterns, confirmation is required with some downside. Namely, look for a break... READ MORE
There are dueling wedges for the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) and the Gold SPDR (GLD). FXE remains in a downtrend with a falling wedge, while GLD remains in an uptrend with a rising wedge. FXE broke support the first week of February, formed a lower high last week and moved... READ MORE
ANF stalls near key retracement. BRCM shows relative weakness. INTC forms harami near resistance. Plus BBBY, BSX, CME, GILD and SWY ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or... READ MORE
The PerfChart below shows five tech-relate ETFs along with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ). All are up sharply since late August, but three are up more than 40%. The Networking iShares (IGN) is up some 48.4%, the Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) is up... READ MORE
Despite low volume the last few months, the stock market continues to move higher. Let this be a lesson. Volume is an indicator that comes second to price action. In addition, overall volume is not as important as the balance of volume. Total volume may be low, but stocks can... READ MORE
Something has clearly spooked the bond market over the last five months. Looking at the CRB Index, that something appears to be inflationary pressures. The CRB Index bottomed in early July and advanced over 30% the last seven months. Bonds peaked two months after the CRB Index bottomed and declined... READ MORE
Three indicators were upgraded this week. With the three of the four key offensive sectors recording 52-week highs this week, I can hardly be bearish on this indicator. XLY, XLI and XLK hit new highs, while XLF remains close to its April high. Even though the Nasdaq has been... READ MORE
The Euro Currency Trust (FXE) broke down with a sharp decline, but the Gold SPDR (GLD) bounced after early weakness to hold well above support. I suspect that the Dollar is strengthening for a number of reasons. First, US interest rates surged in February. Second, turmoil in Egypt and the... READ MORE
Macy's (M) was one of ten NYSE stocks showing up on the Shooting Star scan on the Predefined Scans page. After surging the prior three days, the stock hit resistance from broken support and formed a large shooting star on Wednesday. Note the small body, the long upper... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD) remains in an uptrend, but this bullion ETF warrants a close watch as it trades near the 50% retracement with a rising wedge. I identified the inverse head-and-shoulders and breakout last week and GLD remains in an uptrend as long as the wedge rises.... READ MORE
ABX forms rising flag. SWY breaks P&F trendline. X forges bearish engulfing at resistance. Plus FCX,HRB,MHP. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)... READ MORE
After taking a big hit at the end of January, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) firmed and surged to a new 52-week high this month. The ETF is up seven of the last eight days with a 5.3% advance. This is the sharpest advance since early September. This... READ MORE
A virtual free fall in bonds is fueling a rally in stocks, and possibly gold. The first chart shows the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) surging from 33.25 to 37.25 (3.325% to 3.725%) over the last seven days. The corresponding bond ETF (IEF) has fallen from... READ MORE
The USO Oil Fund (USO) and the US Gasoline Fund (UGA) normally track each other pretty well, but these two have gone their separate ways over the last four weeks. UGA (red) is up around 1% and USO (black) is down around 4% since January 11th. This is unlikely to... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 3.3% in the last six trading days or month-to-date. This is the sharpest 6-day advance since early December. There is, however, a big difference between the early December surge and the current surge. Looking back, I identified... READ MORE
AKAM shows relative weakness. APD breaks flag resistance with gap. S consolidates with triangle. Plus CAKE, FDX, GTIV, MHP, URBN, USG This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or... READ MORE
The S&P Sector Market Carpet provide a nice color-coded means to view performance over a given period of time. This chart shows performance since December 31st. All sectors are up, but there are rather significant pockets of weakness (red) within these sectors. Click this image for a... READ MORE
The Dollar/Gold relationship is a tough one to figure out these days. 2011 has seen both decline in January and bounce in February. The correlation this year appears to be largely positive, which is counter to the historically negative correlation. At times like these, it is often best to... READ MORE
The S&P 500 %Above 50-day SMA ($SPXA50R) indicator is a breath gauge that measures the degree of participation. In this instance, the indicator tells us the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that are above their 50-day SMAs. In general, a bullish bias exists when... READ MORE
Bollinger Bands narrow as volatility falls and widen as volatility rises. The theory is that a volatility contraction is often followed by a volatility expansion. The directional clue depends on the break. Garmin (GRMN) has a classic contraction breakout working with a surge above the upper band on Friday. Notice... READ MORE
Despite relative weakness in small-caps, the consumer discretionary sector and the Nasdaq, the bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. Moreover, this indicator summary has been positive since 3-September, five months now. The NYSE AD Line hit a new high this week. The S&P 500... READ MORE
There is not much change on the charts as we head into the employment report. This is kind of like a Fed announcement, expect most action occurs before the NYSE and Nasdaq actually open. The report is issued at 8:30 AM ET and the stock exchanges open an hour... READ MORE
CHS forms bearish flag. FFIV firms in gap zone. SPWRB forms continuation HS pattern. Plus AZO, BBBY, EXP, SOL This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We... READ MORE
There are two types of head-and-shoulders patterns: reversal and continuation. A reversal pattern changes the trend, while A continuation pattern resumes the trend. SunPower surged in September and then consolidated with an inverse head-and-shoulders. Neckline resistance resides in the 14.90-15.10 zone. A breakout... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD) is trying to stabilize with a small inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Gold has been one of the weakest instruments in 2011. The chart below shows GLD peaking around 139 and moving below 129 last week for a ±7.1% decline. Even though the short-term... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD) remains in a clear downtrend, but a small inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is taking shape the last 10 days. Neckline resistance resides in the 131-131.5 area and a break above this level would reverse the 4-5 week slide. Also notice that the... READ MORE
A downtrend is impossible when an index hits a new high. Monday's short-term trend reversal has become a whipsaw or simply a bad call. With a gap up and break above 130, SPY re-established its short-term uptrend. A postmortem reveals four reasons for the errant... READ MORE
The Euro Top 100 Index ($EUR) may be underperforming the S&P 100, but the index is clearly in an uptrend. $EUR broke its April high in December and recorded a 52-week high in January. There is nothing but uptrend as long as the May trendline holds. This... READ MORE
Interest rates and bonds remain stuck in a never-ending trading range. Calling it "never-ending" will hopefully bring a quicker end to this consolidation. Bonds have been weighed down by rising commodity prices and strength in the economy. Oil surged over 7% the last two days and... READ MORE
AAP forms rising wedge, ERTS surges off support. INTU forms small triangle. Plus INTU,M,MMM,PBR. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE