CHRW consolidates at support. NEM breaks short-term resistance. KSS breaks wedge resistance with volume. Plus AEO, INTC, LUB, QLGC and T ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)... READ MORE
The Lumber Continuous Futures ($LUMBER) remains in a clear uptrend with a series of higher highs and higher lows since late June. This advance (roughly) corresponds with an advance in the Home Construction iShares (ITB). ITB was a little shakey in October-November, but the etf has been moving higher since... READ MORE
There is no change in the analysis for the 60-minute chart and daily chart. SPY gapped up the last two Monday's and both gaps held. The advance appears to be accelerating in February. Notice the sharp advances followed by short pullbacks this month. Yesterday's pullback stopped... READ MORE
Intel is meeting some pretty stiff resistance around 22, but the overall trend remains up. The stock formed a big bearish engulfing in early December and a harami on Thursday-Friday. Even though harami are potentially bearish candlestick patterns, confirmation is required with some downside. Namely, look for a break below... READ MORE
There are dueling wedges for the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) and the Gold SPDR (GLD). FXE remains in a downtrend with a falling wedge, while GLD remains in an uptrend with a rising wedge. FXE broke support the first week of February, formed a lower high last week and moved... READ MORE
ANF stalls near key retracement. BRCM shows relative weakness. INTC forms harami near resistance. Plus BBBY, BSX, CME, GILD and SWY ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)... READ MORE
The PerfChart below shows five tech-relate ETFs along with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ). All are up sharply since late August, but three are up more than 40%. The Networking iShares (IGN) is up some 48.4%, the Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) is up 45.... READ MORE
Despite low volume the last few months, the stock market continues to move higher. Let this be a lesson. Volume is an indicator that comes second to price action. In addition, overall volume is not as important as the balance of volume. Total volume may be low, but stocks can... READ MORE
Something has clearly spooked the bond market over the last five months. Looking at the CRB Index, that something appears to be inflationary pressures. The CRB Index bottomed in early July and advanced over 30% the last seven months. Bonds peaked two months after the CRB Index bottomed and declined... READ MORE
Three indicators were upgraded this week. With the three of the four key offensive sectors recording 52-week highs this week, I can hardly be bearish on this indicator. XLY, XLI and XLK hit new highs, while XLF remains close to its April high. Even though the Nasdaq has been underperforming... READ MORE
The Euro Currency Trust (FXE) broke down with a sharp decline, but the Gold SPDR (GLD) bounced after early weakness to hold well above support. I suspect that the Dollar is strengthening for a number of reasons. First, US interest rates surged in February. Second, turmoil in Egypt and the... READ MORE
Macy's (M) was one of ten NYSE stocks showing up on the Shooting Star scan on the Predefined Scans page. After surging the prior three days, the stock hit resistance from broken support and formed a large shooting star on Wednesday. Note the small body, the long upper... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD) remains in an uptrend, but this bullion ETF warrants a close watch as it trades near the 50% retracement with a rising wedge. I identified the inverse head-and-shoulders and breakout last week and GLD remains in an uptrend as long as the wedge rises. Typically, a... READ MORE
ABX forms rising flag. SWY breaks P&F trendline. X forges bearish engulfing at resistance. Plus FCX,HRB,MHP. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all... READ MORE
After taking a big hit at the end of January, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) firmed and surged to a new 52-week high this month. The ETF is up seven of the last eight days with a 5.3% advance. This is the sharpest advance since early September. This is... READ MORE
A virtual free fall in bonds is fueling a rally in stocks, and possibly gold. The first chart shows the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) surging from 33.25 to 37.25 (3.325% to 3.725%) over the last seven days. The corresponding bond ETF (IEF) has fallen from around... READ MORE
The USO Oil Fund (USO) and the US Gasoline Fund (UGA) normally track each other pretty well, but these two have gone their separate ways over the last four weeks. UGA (red) is up around 1% and USO (black) is down around 4% since January 11th. This is unlikely to... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 3.3% in the last six trading days or month-to-date. This is the sharpest 6-day advance since early December. There is, however, a big difference between the early December surge and the current surge. Looking back, I identified four times when... READ MORE
AKAM shows relative weakness. APD breaks flag resistance with gap. S consolidates with triangle. Plus CAKE, FDX, GTIV, MHP, URBN, USG This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We... READ MORE
The S&P Sector Market Carpet provide a nice color-coded means to view performance over a given period of time. This chart shows performance since December 31st. All sectors are up, but there are rather significant pockets of weakness (red) within these sectors. Click this image for a live... READ MORE
The Dollar/Gold relationship is a tough one to figure out these days. 2011 has seen both decline in January and bounce in February. The correlation this year appears to be largely positive, which is counter to the historically negative correlation. At times like these, it is often best to... READ MORE
The S&P 500 %Above 50-day SMA ($SPXA50R) indicator is a breath gauge that measures the degree of participation. In this instance, the indicator tells us the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that are above their 50-day SMAs. In general, a bullish bias exists when more than... READ MORE
Bollinger Bands narrow as volatility falls and widen as volatility rises. The theory is that a volatility contraction is often followed by a volatility expansion. The directional clue depends on the break. Garmin (GRMN) has a classic contraction breakout working with a surge above the upper band on Friday. Notice... READ MORE
Despite relative weakness in small-caps, the consumer discretionary sector and the Nasdaq, the bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. Moreover, this indicator summary has been positive since 3-September, five months now. The NYSE AD Line hit a new high this week. The S&P 500 ETF, S&... READ MORE
There is not much change on the charts as we head into the employment report. This is kind of like a Fed announcement, expect most action occurs before the NYSE and Nasdaq actually open. The report is issued at 8:30 AM ET and the stock exchanges open an hour... READ MORE
CHS forms bearish flag. FFIV firms in gap zone. SPWRB forms continuation HS pattern. Plus AZO, BBBY, EXP, SOL This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
There are two types of head-and-shoulders patterns: reversal and continuation. A reversal pattern changes the trend, while A continuation pattern resumes the trend. SunPower surged in September and then consolidated with an inverse head-and-shoulders. Neckline resistance resides in the 14.90-15.10 zone. A breakout would suggest a continuation of... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD) is trying to stabilize with a small inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Gold has been one of the weakest instruments in 2011. The chart below shows GLD peaking around 139 and moving below 129 last week for a ±7.1% decline. Even though the short-term trend is clearly... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD) remains in a clear downtrend, but a small inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is taking shape the last 10 days. Neckline resistance resides in the 131-131.5 area and a break above this level would reverse the 4-5 week slide. Also notice that the Dollar and gold have... READ MORE
A downtrend is impossible when an index hits a new high. Monday's short-term trend reversal has become a whipsaw or simply a bad call. With a gap up and break above 130, SPY re-established its short-term uptrend. A postmortem reveals four reasons for the errant trend reversal. First,... READ MORE
The Euro Top 100 Index ($EUR) may be underperforming the S&P 100, but the index is clearly in an uptrend. $EUR broke its April high in December and recorded a 52-week high in January. There is nothing but uptrend as long as the May trendline holds. This index... READ MORE
Interest rates and bonds remain stuck in a never-ending trading range. Calling it "never-ending" will hopefully bring a quicker end to this consolidation. Bonds have been weighed down by rising commodity prices and strength in the economy. Oil surged over 7% the last two days and the Chicago... READ MORE
AAP forms rising wedge, ERTS surges off support. INTU forms small triangle. Plus INTU,M,MMM,PBR. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think... READ MORE
Last week's upheaval in Eqypt contributed to a sharp decline in US stocks on Friday. Even though the upheaval began early last week (Tuesday), the Egypt ETF (EGPT) gave fair warning with a support break a week earlier (January 18th). This looks like a classic case of the... READ MORE
After grinding higher for several weeks to keep the uptrend in place, stocks turned sharply lower on Friday and the bulk of the short-term evidence is now bearish. Media suggests that the turmoil in Egypt is the culprit for the sharp decline in stocks and the bounce in the Dollar,... READ MORE
The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) broke above consolidation resistance on Thursday, but failed to hold this breakout after a sharp decline early Friday. XLY formed a long black candlestick that pushed the ETF to its lowest level since late December. An important support test is at hand. Click this image... READ MORE
The indicator summary remains positive, but cracks in the bullish case are starting to appear. It all started with relative weakness in small-caps and the consumer discretionary sector, two important areas of the market. This week we saw DIA, QQQQ and SPY eke out new 52-week highs, but MDY and... READ MORE
There is no change in the short-term trend or key indicators. Price-wise, the SPY trend is up as the ETF holds its rising price channel. Key support on the 60-minute chart remains at 128. A move below this level would reverse the current uptrend and call for a retracement of... READ MORE
The Steel ETF (SLX) is running into stiff resistance just above 75 with a bearish engulfing two weeks ago and a potentially bearish harami today. After a gap and long white candlestick on Tuesday, the stock moved sharply lower today with a long black candlestick. Today's body (open-close)... READ MORE
It is certainly tempting to pick a top and turn bearish now, but such thoughts bring me back to a quote from Dirty Harry. You've got to ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya punk bear? As noted before, sentiment is excessively... READ MORE