Even though there is not any real historical data for GM, keen chartists can start with the 1-minute and 5-minute charts for the first technical signals. On the 5-min chart, GM is clearly in a downtrend as it trades below the trendline extending down from 10:45AM. This trendline and... READ MORE
Before hitting the charts, note that EU and IMF officials flew into Dublin (Ireland) today in an effort to convince Irish officials to accept a bailout. The Euro is quite oversold after a sharp decline from 142 to 134 (4.2%) and ripe for a bounce that could retrace a... READ MORE
AEO Forms Falling Flag. CHS Gaps above Triangle Resistance. MMM Firms at Key Retracement. Plus CX, EK, SEE ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
With a gap up, consolidation and gap down over the last two weeks, the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) forged an island reversal. Notice that there were no trades around 71.8 with the gap up and no trades at this level with the gap down. IWM needs to fill the... READ MORE
With a sharp decline on Tuesday, the bulk of the short-term evidence has turned bearish. First, three of the four short-term breadth indicators moved into bear mode. These were featured in Monday's commentary. Second, RSI on the 60-minute chart broke below 40 last week and CCI on the... READ MORE
With a sharp decline the last eight days, the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) filled the early November gap and broke the channel trendline. Also notice that the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) moved to its lowest level since September 1st. The combination indicates a corrective period unfolding. Click this image for... READ MORE
The Euro and US Treasuries were hit again on Monday, but both are getting short-term oversold and ripe for a bounce. Even an oversold bounce in these two could provide a boost for stocks. On the daily chart, SPY is trading near the lower trendline of the rising price channel,... READ MORE
$HD and $LOW Show Relative Weakness. $DTV Forms Bear Flag. $NUE Fails at Resistance. Plus $BG and $MOT This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to... READ MORE
With a 10+ percent advance the last 11-12 weeks, the Energy SPDR (XLE) is trading near the upper trendline of a broadening formation. The swing within this formation is up as XLE remains above the green trendline and Williams %R remains in overbought territory. A trendline break and move below... READ MORE
The Euro and US Treasuries are moving lower, which means the Dollar and US interest rates are moving higher. With these negatives weighing on the stock market, SPY declined around 2% last week. This was the biggest weekly decline since early August. On the daily chart, the ETF fell to... READ MORE
Breadth took a hit last week, but my short-term breadth indicators have yet to turn bearish. The next four charts show the 10-day SMA for Net Advances and Net Advancing Volume for the Nasdaq and NYSE. These indicators oscillate above/below the zero line. However, I add a buffer by... READ MORE
The Technology ETF (XLK) remains in bull mode as it trades above a green cloud and the Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line) holds above the Kijun-sen (Base Line). The Tenkan -sen (blue) is the average of the 9-day high-low range. The Kijun-sen (red) is the average of the 26-day high-low range. The... READ MORE
The indicator summary remains firmly positive, but weakness in the technology and industrials sectors caused me to downgrade two of the ten indicators. These downgrades were simply from bullish to neutral. A few days of weakness is not enough to change the overall picture. The market remains in bull mode,... READ MORE
The Finance SPDR (XLF) broke resistance with a big surge last week and broken resistance now turns into the first level to watch for support. This is a basic tenet of technical analysis (broken resistance/support turns into support/resistance). Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
After breaking triangle resistance at the beginning of November, the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) gave it all back and broke support from the late October lows. This reversal of fortune is quite amazing. Since the surge above 142 late last week, FXE has fallen over 4% in six trading days.... READ MORE
With 30-year Treasury yields moving higher, the interest rate sensitive utilities sector may start feeling the heat. In contrast to the S&P 500, the Utilities SPDR (XLU) peaked in October and formed a lower high in November. The price relative confirms weakness as it moved to a new... READ MORE
Charts: AET, AFFX, DELL, HD, PDCO, PRU ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading our own... READ MORE
SPY remains in an uptrend on the daily chart with a rising price channel over the last eight weeks. After surging above 122 last Thursday and then stalling for two days, the ETF formed a bearish engulfing pattern on Tuesday. However, there was no follow through as the ETF recouped... READ MORE
Allegheny Technologies (ATI) formed an evening star over the prior three days. This bearish reversal pattern consists of three candlesticks: a long white candlestick, a small body candlestick and a long red candlestick to complete the reversal. The predefined scans page showed 14 such patterns forming on the NYSE and... READ MORE
It is always difficult to pick the exact cause of an advance or decline in stocks, but the positive correlation between the Euro and stocks has been quite strong this year. The Euro Currency Trust (FXE) extended its three day slide with a move below 137.5 on Tuesday. Actually,... READ MORE
BA consolidates above breakout. BG forms pennant after engulfing. HOLX traces out a triangle. CTXS stalls near key retracement. ERTS surges off support with good volume. GCI gaps off support with good volume. MON forms harami cross at resistance. SEE forms rising wedge after sharp decline. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and... READ MORE
2010 is going to be known as the year of the hard assets. The PerfChart below shows the S&P 500, Silver, Gold, Oil, the Dollar and the Euro. Stocks are up, but lagging the three commodities. Both the Euro Index and the Dollar Index are down for the... READ MORE
With the Euro taking a big hit on Friday-Monday, bullish resolve in the stock market will be tested right off the bat this week. The Dollar strengthened for three reasons. First, the employment report showed strong job creation, which is positive for the economy and puts upward pressure on interest... READ MORE
Although a little late to the party, the Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) is showing signs of life with an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern taking shape. Note that the S&P 500 formed an inverse head-and-shoulders from mid May to mid September and broke resistance in the second half of September. The... READ MORE
The Homebuilders SPDR (XHB) finally broke above resistance with a surge the last few days. XHB was one of the laggards because it had yet to break its July high. This changed on Thursday as the ETF broke resistance with a gap and long white candlestick. Also notice that the... READ MORE
That certainly did not take long. Five indicators were downgraded from bullish to neutral last Friday. These indicators did not break down to warrant a bearish stance, but I downgraded them to neutral because they were not confirming the new highs seen in the major indices. That changed this week.... READ MORE
Stocks started the week strong and surged on Thursday with big gains in all major indices. All sectors were up with materials, energy, and finance leading the charge. These three were up over 3%. It is positive to see relative strength coming from the finance sector. On the daily SPY... READ MORE
After retracing around 62% of the prior advance, Newmont Mining (NEM) broke above flag resistance with a surge over the last few days. The breakout was under threat with Wednesday's pullback, but Thursday's surge keeps the flag breakout in play. There is one concern. NEM remains... READ MORE
$CIEN firms at key retracement. $CVS forms bull flag. $FITB shows relative strength. $GPS, $HD, $QLGC and $WFC. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
Two down, one to go. The elections and the Fed have passed with little fanfare for stocks. Details of QE2 were released in the Fed policy statement. Bonds went one way and the Finance SPDR (XLF) went the other way. Funny how that worked. Bonds, which are direct beneficiaries of... READ MORE
After plunging on Monday, the Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) firmed on Tuesday to form a harami. This is essentially an inside day. Also notice that the ETF managed to firm near the 62% retracement mark. Wednesday's surged above Monday's high confirms the harami. Click this image... READ MORE
The Euro broke resistance as long-term rates fell back to support. The first chart shows the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) breaking above range resistance and moving above the triangle trendline. This bullish development for the Euro is a positive for stocks. Range support around 138-138.2 is now the first... READ MORE
The Natural Gas Continuous-Futures ($NATGAS) formed a large weekly outside reversal pattern last week. Combined with a falling wedge and support in the 3.3-3.5 area, Natural Gas is threatening a bounce within its long downtrend. Watch the MACD-Histogram for a move into positive territory to signal some upside... READ MORE
The Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) failed at resistance as the Yen surged to new highs. The Nikkei 225 surged in September, but never broke resistance as a weak Dollar drove the Yen higher. It is possible that an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is forming, but there are no signs of support or... READ MORE
First note that I will be travelling on Tuesday and will not be able to write a commentary that day. The next commentary will be Wednesday morning. It is just as well because the markets will digest the week's first big event on Wednesday morning. The elections are... READ MORE
Linear Tech (LLTC) formed a large triangle over the last three months and broke resistance with a surge this week. Also notice that the stock broke above its September highs. Semis are showing upside leadership and this is positive for the tech sector. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
The indicator summary remains bullish overall, but five indicators were downgraded from bullish to neutral. First, the NYSE AD Volume Line peaked in mid October and is starting to lag. Second, the Nasdaq AD Line flattened as the Nasdaq continued higher. Third, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, VIX... READ MORE
There are likely to be some serious fireworks next week. This is one of the biggest news weeks that I can remember. First, we have election results on Tuesday. Second, the Fed meets on Wednesday. Third, there is the employment report on Friday. We can also throw in the ISM... READ MORE
After a breakout and big surge towards the August highs, the USO Oil Fund (USO) took a breather with a pullback over the last few weeks. The falling zigzag in October looks like a falling flag, which is a bullish continuation pattern. The surge from 32.5 to 36.5... READ MORE
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading our own accounts. First, it is the only way to... READ MORE