There is no change on the daily chart. Even though the advance has grown laborious, SPY remains in an uptrend. The surge above 114 on September 20th marked the easy part of the advance. Since this surge, SPY has worked its way higher within a rising price channel. All kinds... READ MORE
The DJ Greece Index ($GRDOW) shows a potential head-and-shoulders pattern evolving over the last five months. This version is a continuation pattern. A move below the October low would confirm the pattern and target lower prices. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
There were some serious rumblings in the intermarket arena on Tuesday. Bonds plunged, long-term rates surged, the Euro declined sharply and the Dollar bounced. Forget about the Fed and QE2. These are already priced into the market. Bonds and the Dollar are looking ahead of QE2. Long-term rates are rising... READ MORE
After a trendline breakout in August, Vertex Pharma (VRTX) traced out a potentially bullish ascending triangle. Notice the higher low in early October and the equal highs in August and September. A break above the September high on good volume would confirm this bullish pattern. Click this image for a... READ MORE
Charts: AKS, ALTR, AMKR, HOLX, HRS, IDCC, MAS, POOL, WHR ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to... READ MORE
I continue to watch bonds and the Euro for clues on equities. The first chart shows the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) surging on the open, but failing to break last week's high and falling back. It is possible that we have a lower high taking shape after last... READ MORE
John Murphy's industry group perfchart shows oil services and internet stocks leading the market since August 27th. It's a rather motly pair. Banks are the biggest laggards. In a bit of a surprise, gold and silver stocks ($XAU) are also lagging the broader market. Click this... READ MORE
The Euro Currency Trust (FXE) and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) have been positively correlated throughout 2010. This positive correlation is especially strong since late August. Both are up over 10% since late August. Why the positive correlation? First, a weak Dollar is beneficial to US exports because... READ MORE
The Multisector Energy Fund (DBE) has been stuck in a trading range since late May. Range support is set near 25 and range resistance near 22. With the October pullback, the ETF has failed at resistance and showed weakness. Look for a break above this week's high to... READ MORE
There is no change in the indicator summary, which remains firmly bullish. With all ten indicators in bull mode, it would take a few weeks to turn the tide bearish. I am not predicting this. I am merely reinforcing the lagging nature of this indicator summary. It is not designed... READ MORE
The intermarket picture is getting quite interesting. First, the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) broke wedge resistance to signal a continuation of last week's breakout. A bullish breakout in yields means a bearish breakdown in bonds. Frankly, I am not sure how or if this will affect stocks. The... READ MORE
With a strong open Thursday morning and a sharp move lower in the afternoon, the Russell 2000 ETF has a bearish engulfing pattern working on the day. The bulls started in control, but the bears clearly took control in the afternoon. Also notice that the MACD-Histogram turned negative three days... READ MORE
AFFX bounces off support with good volume. ESRX breaks flag resistance. EXP forms long triangle. INTC bounces off support with good volume. PAYX forms bullish consolidation. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any... READ MORE
The bulls are clearly not going down without a fight. While yesterday's rebound looked impressive, breadth fell short of the prior highs and the bulls appear to be loosing steam. The first chart shows the Nasdaq AD Volume Line and Net Advancing Volume. The AD Volume Line remains... READ MORE
The Nasdaq %Above 50-day SMA ($NAA50R) is trading near the prior 2010 highs. This indicator surged to the mid 70s in January and again in April. Prior moves to this area signaled overbought conditions that led to a pullback. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
Big moves in the Euro and Apple weighed on stocks Tuesday. Apple declined after its earnings announcement, which was surely a buy-the-rumor sell-the-news event. The Euro Currency Trust (FXE) declined almost 2% after hitting a key retracement level last week. This was covered in Friday's Market Message. For... READ MORE
The Homebuilders SPDR (XHB) surged to resistance at the end of Septmeber, but failed to follow through with a breakout in October. After trading flat for two weeks, the ETF is starting to move lower and showing relative weakness. Again. Click this image for a live chart.... READ MORE
BSX forms tight ascending triangle, MSFT breaks triangle resistance, MDT edges above consolidation resistance, SNDK forms bearish wedge. WY breaks triangle support. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or... READ MORE
Stalling is not the same as weakness. I noted yesterday that SPY gapped up on Wednesday and stalled. Hanging man candlesticks followed on Thursday and Friday as the stall extended. Such indecision can sometimes result in a short-term reversal, but some sort of downside break or catalyst is needed to... READ MORE
The German DAX Index ($DAX) continues to lead the world with an ascending triangle breakout. These are bullish continuation patterns. The height of the pattern (±700) is added to the resistance breakout for an upside target. With resistance at 6350, this targets a move to around 7000. Click this image... READ MORE
Here's one for the record books. The Nasdaq was up 1.37% and the Nasdaq 100 was up 2.10% on Friday, but Net Advances were a negative 97. Despite big advances, there were more declining stocks on the Nasdaq than advancing stocks. Net Advancing Volume was positive... READ MORE
Even though stocks are overextended after a massive seven week run, we have yet to seen any evidence of weakness that would signal the start of a correction or pullback. Many momentum oscillators are also at or near overbought levels, but cumulative indicators, such as the McClellan Summation Index, continue... READ MORE
With a little help from Google (and Apple), the Nasdaq 100 surged above the April high this week to record a new 52-week high. Large techs are showing relative strength as one of the first groups to break this high. Google broke out of a long channel in mid September... READ MORE
With a breakout in the Nasdaq AD Line, all ten indicators are now in bull mode. This indicator summary has been positive since September 3rd, going on six weeks now. DIA and QQQQ are challenging their April highs, but the Finance SPDR (XLF) remains below its summer highs. Once again,... READ MORE
The finance sector remains a thorn in the bull's hoof. Even though majority of the market is in bull mode, the Finance SPDR (XLF) remains a serious laggard. As noted in Wednesday's Market Message, XLF is the only one of the nine sector SPDRs that has... READ MORE
The sector market carpet shows lots of red in the consumer discretionary and finance sectors. Four of the five biggest losers come from the consumer discretionary sector. The finance sector also has quite a few dark red squares, indicating stocks with relative weakness. Technology remains a bright spot with three... READ MORE
AN forms a high volume hammer. BSX forms small ascending triangle. CAG breaks resistance on good volume. GILD breaks flag resistance. LEAP consolidates after breakout. TIN breaks triangle resistance on big volume. TLAB gaps to triangle resistance. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is... READ MORE
With another surge higher the last four days, the major index ETFs are overbought by most measures. SPY is up over 13% in seven weeks, 14-day RSI moved above 70 and CCI is near 180. RSI was last above 70 in mid April. At the time, the indicator oscillated around... READ MORE
With a weak open and strong close in stock market, 70 securities appears on the bullish engulfing scan for the Nasdaq and NYSE. The chart below shows Noble Drilling (NE) surging in early September, correcting into early October and then forming a bullish engulfing on Tuesday. Click this image for... READ MORE
Maybe it is just coincidence, but there sure is a strong negative correlation between the Dollar and stocks. Stocks started weak as the Dollar surged in early trading. The FOMC minutes hit the market in the afternoon and the Dollar swooned as QE2 became more of a reality. QE2 and... READ MORE
The Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) continues to show relative strength as it surges to its summer highs. Reaction highs in June-July mark a resistance zone around 28.7. The indicator window shows the price relative (SMH:SPY ratio) bottoming in early September and moving higher the last 4-5 weeks. Click this... READ MORE
After consolidating near a key retracement and forming four doji, Starbucks (SBUX) broke through pennant resistance with a surge early Tuesday. The June highs mark the next resistance level. A move below Tuesday's low would signal a breakout failure. Click this image for a live chart.... READ MORE
CTAS shows 3 weeks of relative weakness. EBAY breaks flag support. EXPD forms rising flag on lower volume. PFCB consolidates after long red candlestick. RIMM retraces 50% rising wedge. SBUX stalls at key retracement with four doji. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is... READ MORE
A review of my short-term indicators confirms short-term uptrend, but there are some signs that the advancing is tiring. In particular, the 10-day SMA for Net Advancing Volume shows some weakness over the last two weeks. The charts below show this indicator for the NYSE and Nasdaq. The green line... READ MORE
The Technology ETF (XLK) has been consolidating the last two weeks with a small inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This pattern is best viewed using intraday charts. Neckline resistance resides around 23.3-23.5 and the ETF is testing this area for the fourth time since 27-Oct. A breakout would signal a... READ MORE
Survey data is often used to measure extremes in bullish sentiment or bearish sentiment. It is bearish when too many respondents are bullish and bullish when too many are bearish. These surveys spend most of their time between bullish and bearish extremes (i.e. without signals). The AAII survey and... READ MORE
Alcoa is showing upside leadership with a surge and break above short-term resistance the last few days. Upside volume has also been impressive. The charts below come from the Dow CandleGlance page, which shows small candlestick charts for all 30 Dow components. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
The indicator summary remains positive, but there are a couple of concerns. First, relative weakness in the finance cast a cloud over the current advance. Second, the Nasdaq has been underperforming the NY Composite the last two weeks. This may be just a pullback. Third, the Dow Industrials SPDR and... READ MORE
After a surge on Tuesday, Applied Materials (AMAT) stalled on Wednesday to firm an inside day and harami. This pattern extended on Thursday as the stock again traded within Tuesday's range. A consolidation within an 5-week uptrend is forming. Watch the boundaries for the next signal. Click this... READ MORE
There is no change on the daily chart so I will go directly to the 60-minute chart. Whether or not SPY holds its breakout depends on the market's reaction to the employment report. The news is not what is important here. It is the market's reaction... READ MORE