BSX forms tight ascending triangle, MSFT breaks triangle resistance, MDT edges above consolidation resistance, SNDK forms bearish wedge. WY breaks triangle support. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or... READ MORE
Stalling is not the same as weakness. I noted yesterday that SPY gapped up on Wednesday and stalled. Hanging man candlesticks followed on Thursday and Friday as the stall extended. Such indecision can sometimes result in a short-term reversal, but some sort of downside break or catalyst is needed to... READ MORE
The German DAX Index ($DAX) continues to lead the world with an ascending triangle breakout. These are bullish continuation patterns. The height of the pattern (±700) is added to the resistance breakout for an upside target. With resistance at 6350, this targets a move to around 7000. Click this image... READ MORE
Here's one for the record books. The Nasdaq was up 1.37% and the Nasdaq 100 was up 2.10% on Friday, but Net Advances were a negative 97. Despite big advances, there were more declining stocks on the Nasdaq than advancing stocks. Net Advancing Volume was positive... READ MORE
Even though stocks are overextended after a massive seven week run, we have yet to seen any evidence of weakness that would signal the start of a correction or pullback. Many momentum oscillators are also at or near overbought levels, but cumulative indicators, such as the McClellan Summation Index, continue... READ MORE
With a little help from Google (and Apple), the Nasdaq 100 surged above the April high this week to record a new 52-week high. Large techs are showing relative strength as one of the first groups to break this high. Google broke out of a long channel in mid September... READ MORE
With a breakout in the Nasdaq AD Line, all ten indicators are now in bull mode. This indicator summary has been positive since September 3rd, going on six weeks now. DIA and QQQQ are challenging their April highs, but the Finance SPDR (XLF) remains below its summer highs. Once again,... READ MORE
The finance sector remains a thorn in the bull's hoof. Even though majority of the market is in bull mode, the Finance SPDR (XLF) remains a serious laggard. As noted in Wednesday's Market Message, XLF is the only one of the nine sector SPDRs that has... READ MORE
The sector market carpet shows lots of red in the consumer discretionary and finance sectors. Four of the five biggest losers come from the consumer discretionary sector. The finance sector also has quite a few dark red squares, indicating stocks with relative weakness. Technology remains a bright spot with three... READ MORE
AN forms a high volume hammer. BSX forms small ascending triangle. CAG breaks resistance on good volume. GILD breaks flag resistance. LEAP consolidates after breakout. TIN breaks triangle resistance on big volume. TLAB gaps to triangle resistance. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is... READ MORE
With another surge higher the last four days, the major index ETFs are overbought by most measures. SPY is up over 13% in seven weeks, 14-day RSI moved above 70 and CCI is near 180. RSI was last above 70 in mid April. At the time, the indicator oscillated around... READ MORE
With a weak open and strong close in stock market, 70 securities appears on the bullish engulfing scan for the Nasdaq and NYSE. The chart below shows Noble Drilling (NE) surging in early September, correcting into early October and then forming a bullish engulfing on Tuesday. Click this image for... READ MORE
Maybe it is just coincidence, but there sure is a strong negative correlation between the Dollar and stocks. Stocks started weak as the Dollar surged in early trading. The FOMC minutes hit the market in the afternoon and the Dollar swooned as QE2 became more of a reality. QE2 and... READ MORE
The Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) continues to show relative strength as it surges to its summer highs. Reaction highs in June-July mark a resistance zone around 28.7. The indicator window shows the price relative (SMH:SPY ratio) bottoming in early September and moving higher the last 4-5 weeks. Click this... READ MORE
After consolidating near a key retracement and forming four doji, Starbucks (SBUX) broke through pennant resistance with a surge early Tuesday. The June highs mark the next resistance level. A move below Tuesday's low would signal a breakout failure. Click this image for a live chart.... READ MORE
CTAS shows 3 weeks of relative weakness. EBAY breaks flag support. EXPD forms rising flag on lower volume. PFCB consolidates after long red candlestick. RIMM retraces 50% rising wedge. SBUX stalls at key retracement with four doji. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is... READ MORE
A review of my short-term indicators confirms short-term uptrend, but there are some signs that the advancing is tiring. In particular, the 10-day SMA for Net Advancing Volume shows some weakness over the last two weeks. The charts below show this indicator for the NYSE and Nasdaq. The green line... READ MORE
The Technology ETF (XLK) has been consolidating the last two weeks with a small inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This pattern is best viewed using intraday charts. Neckline resistance resides around 23.3-23.5 and the ETF is testing this area for the fourth time since 27-Oct. A breakout would signal a... READ MORE
Survey data is often used to measure extremes in bullish sentiment or bearish sentiment. It is bearish when too many respondents are bullish and bullish when too many are bearish. These surveys spend most of their time between bullish and bearish extremes (i.e. without signals). The AAII survey and... READ MORE
Alcoa is showing upside leadership with a surge and break above short-term resistance the last few days. Upside volume has also been impressive. The charts below come from the Dow CandleGlance page, which shows small candlestick charts for all 30 Dow components. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
The indicator summary remains positive, but there are a couple of concerns. First, relative weakness in the finance cast a cloud over the current advance. Second, the Nasdaq has been underperforming the NY Composite the last two weeks. This may be just a pullback. Third, the Dow Industrials SPDR and... READ MORE
After a surge on Tuesday, Applied Materials (AMAT) stalled on Wednesday to firm an inside day and harami. This pattern extended on Thursday as the stock again traded within Tuesday's range. A consolidation within an 5-week uptrend is forming. Watch the boundaries for the next signal. Click this... READ MORE
There is no change on the daily chart so I will go directly to the 60-minute chart. Whether or not SPY holds its breakout depends on the market's reaction to the employment report. The news is not what is important here. It is the market's reaction... READ MORE
The risk-on trade remains alive and well in October. As the Perfchart below shows, stocks, oil and gold are strong, while bonds and the Dollar are weak. The relationships reflect a market that is embracing risk. Strength in the Dollar and bonds would start to suggest otherwise. Click this image... READ MORE
ADSK forms small descending triangle. ARO breaks out on good volume. AN tests support, DDS underperforms within consolidation. ETR shows weakness with expanding volume. GILD forms bull flag near resistance. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold... READ MORE
On the daily chart, SPY broke above range resistance with a gap and long white candlestick on Tuesday. These developments affirmed the medium-term uptrend and reinforced short-term support around 113. The bulls are on firm footing as long as this breakout holds. I still have the ABC correction in the... READ MORE
When it comes to stocks, it's all about the Dollar the last four weeks. The chart below shows the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) rising along side the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The bottom window shows the Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) falling. A weak Dollar makes US... READ MORE
On the daily chart, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke above range resistance with a gap and long white candlestick on Tuesday. This move clearly keeps the uptrend alive. SPY broke above its summer highs in late September and this breakout held. Even though the ABC correction was... READ MORE
Charts of Interest: CSCO, DDS, ERTS, FITB, MI, STT ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading... READ MORE
There is no change in the daily chart analysis. An ABC correction could be taking shape, but there is no confirmation because the short-term trend remains up. A short-term trend reversal is needed for the earliest possible indication that a bigger decline is starting. On the 60-minute chart, SPY is... READ MORE
With a move below last week's lows, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) broke below consolidation support and StochRSI became oversold for the first time since late August. This oversold reading looks like a sign of weakness because it is occurring along side the support break. Click this image... READ MORE
The NYSE AD Volume Line moved to a new high last week, but the Nasdaq AD Volume Line failed to exceed its prior high and traded flat. We also saw a little relative weakness in the Nasdaq and techs relative to the broader market last week. The 23-Sept lows now... READ MORE
Oil finally started making up for lost time. Despite strength in stocks and weakness in the Dollar throughout September, oil remained below its mid September high the latter part of the month. Broken support around 34 turned into resistance and was holding. Things suddenly changed as the USO Oil Fund... READ MORE
The bearish engulfing scan on the pre-defined scans page at StockCharts.com featured 105 Nasdaq stocks and 177 NYSE stocks. The chart below shows EBAY with a rather large bearish engulfing pattern on Thursday. Trendline support is set at 24. Follow through below this level would confirm the bearish engulfing.... READ MORE
There is still no change on the daily chart. SPY continues to stall around 114-115 and has yet to break support. Even though the trend is clearly up here, I am leaving the ABC correction possibility on the chart. SPY is also near channel resistance and overbought. The upper trendline... READ MORE
The indicator summary has been positive for almost a full month. While there are no signs of medium-term weakness, there are some signs of short-term fatigue setting into the market. First, the Russell 2000 ETF is still battling resistance from its summer highs. Second, the Finance SPDR failed at resistance... READ MORE
Despite the sharp September rally, the Nasdaq Bullish% Index ($BPCOMPQ) remains stuck in a consolidation and has yet to break its summer highs. The Bullish Percent Index broke support with the May decline and needs to break above current resistance to negate the current P&F sell signal. Click... READ MORE
The Dow Industrials SPDR(DIA) signaled indecision on Wednesday with a small doji. Wednesday marks the fourth straight close in the 108-109 area. Doji can sometimes foreshadow a reversal, such as in early August. Alternatively, doji can simply mark a rest in the uptrend, such as mid September. Click this... READ MORE
There is no change on the daily chart. SPY continues to stall around 114 and has yet to break support. Even though the trend is clearly up here, I am leaving the ABC correction possibility on the chart. SPY is also near channel resistance and overbought. The upper trendline of... READ MORE
Charts of Interest: ADM, AN, ASEI, CME, FITB, HCBK, HSY, LSI, PLCM --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves when it... READ MORE