The risk-on trade remains alive and well in October. As the Perfchart below shows, stocks, oil and gold are strong, while bonds and the Dollar are weak. The relationships reflect a market that is embracing risk. Strength in the Dollar and bonds would start to suggest otherwise. Click this image... READ MORE
ADSK forms small descending triangle. ARO breaks out on good volume. AN tests support, DDS underperforms within consolidation. ETR shows weakness with expanding volume. GILD forms bull flag near resistance. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold... READ MORE
On the daily chart, SPY broke above range resistance with a gap and long white candlestick on Tuesday. These developments affirmed the medium-term uptrend and reinforced short-term support around 113. The bulls are on firm footing as long as this breakout holds. I still have the ABC correction in the... READ MORE
When it comes to stocks, it's all about the Dollar the last four weeks. The chart below shows the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) rising along side the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The bottom window shows the Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) falling. A weak Dollar makes US... READ MORE
On the daily chart, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke above range resistance with a gap and long white candlestick on Tuesday. This move clearly keeps the uptrend alive. SPY broke above its summer highs in late September and this breakout held. Even though the ABC correction was... READ MORE
Charts of Interest: CSCO, DDS, ERTS, FITB, MI, STT ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading... READ MORE
There is no change in the daily chart analysis. An ABC correction could be taking shape, but there is no confirmation because the short-term trend remains up. A short-term trend reversal is needed for the earliest possible indication that a bigger decline is starting. On the 60-minute chart, SPY is... READ MORE
With a move below last week's lows, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) broke below consolidation support and StochRSI became oversold for the first time since late August. This oversold reading looks like a sign of weakness because it is occurring along side the support break. Click this image... READ MORE
The NYSE AD Volume Line moved to a new high last week, but the Nasdaq AD Volume Line failed to exceed its prior high and traded flat. We also saw a little relative weakness in the Nasdaq and techs relative to the broader market last week. The 23-Sept lows now... READ MORE
Oil finally started making up for lost time. Despite strength in stocks and weakness in the Dollar throughout September, oil remained below its mid September high the latter part of the month. Broken support around 34 turned into resistance and was holding. Things suddenly changed as the USO Oil Fund... READ MORE
The bearish engulfing scan on the pre-defined scans page at StockCharts.com featured 105 Nasdaq stocks and 177 NYSE stocks. The chart below shows EBAY with a rather large bearish engulfing pattern on Thursday. Trendline support is set at 24. Follow through below this level would confirm the bearish engulfing.... READ MORE
There is still no change on the daily chart. SPY continues to stall around 114-115 and has yet to break support. Even though the trend is clearly up here, I am leaving the ABC correction possibility on the chart. SPY is also near channel resistance and overbought. The upper trendline... READ MORE
The indicator summary has been positive for almost a full month. While there are no signs of medium-term weakness, there are some signs of short-term fatigue setting into the market. First, the Russell 2000 ETF is still battling resistance from its summer highs. Second, the Finance SPDR failed at resistance... READ MORE
Despite the sharp September rally, the Nasdaq Bullish% Index ($BPCOMPQ) remains stuck in a consolidation and has yet to break its summer highs. The Bullish Percent Index broke support with the May decline and needs to break above current resistance to negate the current P&F sell signal. Click... READ MORE
The Dow Industrials SPDR(DIA) signaled indecision on Wednesday with a small doji. Wednesday marks the fourth straight close in the 108-109 area. Doji can sometimes foreshadow a reversal, such as in early August. Alternatively, doji can simply mark a rest in the uptrend, such as mid September. Click this... READ MORE
There is no change on the daily chart. SPY continues to stall around 114 and has yet to break support. Even though the trend is clearly up here, I am leaving the ABC correction possibility on the chart. SPY is also near channel resistance and overbought. The upper trendline of... READ MORE
Charts of Interest: ADM, AN, ASEI, CME, FITB, HCBK, HSY, LSI, PLCM --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves when it... READ MORE
The Finance SPDR (XLF) and the Energy SPDR (XLE) are the only two sectors that have yet to break their summer highs. XLE is close as it works its way higher after a pennant breakout seven days ago. With this advance, the ETF is now trading at the upper trendline... READ MORE
Charts of Interest: AN, CLF, FDX, NAT, RTN, SHAW, THC This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading... READ MORE
The risk-on trade remains in force, but the bullish case has been weakening since last week. Even though the Euro remains in clear uptrend, supporting the risk-on trade, the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) remains in a downtrend and fell further on Monday. In addition, the Finance SPDR (XLF) was hit... READ MORE
Once again, stocks dipped on Monday and early Tuesday, but quickly recovered with a sharp rally that held up into the close. The medium-term and short-term trends are clearly up, but the intermarket picture remains mixed. Strength in the Euro is positive for stocks, but strength in bonds and weakness... READ MORE
The S&P Sector PerfChart shows the percentage change for the nine sectors and the S&P 500. Those up more than the S&P 500 are leading. Those up less are lagging. In a surprising twist, both the technology and healthcare sectors are leading the S&... READ MORE
After a relatively short pullback the prior three days, stocks rebounded with a strong move on Friday. The major indices were all up 2% or more with the Russell 2000 leading the charge (+3.42%). Relative strength in small-caps is a big positive for the market. We are also seeing... READ MORE
After consolidating for a few days, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) broke resistance with a surge on Friday. In fact, the 30-minute PnF chart shows an ascending triangle taking shape this week. These are bullish continuation patterns. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
Thursday's action was not encouraging. Stocks started weak as the major index ETFs gapped down on the open. However, the bulls came in almost immediately and pushed stocks into positive territory just after 11AM. Techs led the rebound. This looked encouraging, but selling pressure took hold in the... READ MORE
Despite a few discrepancies, the indicator summary remains in the bullish camp. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has yet to break its summer highs, but QQQQ, SPY and DIA have broken through. The NYSE AD Line hit another new high, but the Nasdaq AD Line has yet to take out... READ MORE
With a sharp decline the last three days, the Finance SPDR (XLF) failed at resistance for the fifth time since late May. In addition, the chart below shows the ETF breaking short-term support with a gap down. Deja vu? The price relative moved to a new low as finance continues... READ MORE
On the daily chart, SPY formed red indecisive candlesticks with a stall around 114 the last two days. These spinning tops can sometimes foreshadow reversals. Judging from the candlesticks, a decline below 112 would erase Monday's gain and call for a short-term trend reversal. Also notice that SPY... READ MORE
The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is one of the leaders in September, but the ETF is now stalling near the upper trendline of a rising price channel. The lower trendline was drawn first and the upper trendline is parallel from the late July high. This trendline extension coincides with the... READ MORE
With a high volume surge the last three days, Google (GOOG) broke above Volume by Price resistance around 500. The stock also broke above its summer highs and has shown relative strength in September. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
SPY broke above its summer highs and closed at its highest level since the second week of May. Perhaps the advance is accelerating higher with this breakout. At this point, the bulls are in clear control and I am focused on what it would take to turn this chart bearish.... READ MORE
For stocks, there was good news and bad news on Tuesday. It is positive to see the Euro surging, but negative to see interest rates falling. Throughout 2010, stocks have been positively correlated with interest rates and negatively correlated with the Euro. Which relationship are we to follow here? I... READ MORE
In addition to the S&P 500 ($SPX), the S&P MidCap 400 ($MID) formed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern over the last four months and broke neckline resistance with a surge on Monday. MACD also remains in bull mode as it remains in positive territory and above its... READ MORE
There is not much change on the daily chart as we head towards the Fed policy statement on Tuesday. Even though no major policy changes are expected, we cannot not rule volatility on Tuesday afternoon. After churning around 112 the prior four days, SPY opened above 113 with a gap... READ MORE
Leadership from three of the four key offensive sectors makes the September surge all the more impressive. I consider the consumer discretionary, finance, technology and industrials sectors as the offensive sectors that are key to the stock market and the economy. Leadership from at least 2 of the 4 is... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) represents large-cap tech stocks and the S&P 100 ($OEX) represents large-cap everything. We can compare these two with the price relative or $NDX:$OEX ratio. With this ratio plot breaking to new highs, it is clear that $NDX is leaving $OEX in the dust.... READ MORE
With a couple more indicator turns, the indicator summary is now within a point of its maximum reading, which is +10. This often happens after an extended advance and the S&P 500 ($SPX) is up significantly in September. Lagging Nasdaq breadth has been countered by relative strength in... READ MORE
Trading is getting a bit strange, but the bulls clearly have the edge in the stock market right now. Techs have started to lead on the upside, but small-caps were relatively weak as IWM closed down on Thursday. Even though stocks continue to move higher, oil took a rather hard... READ MORE
After a weak open, buyers came into the market and pushed stocks higher with a little pop coming in the final hour. There seems to be some performance anxiety creeping into the market as the major indices trade well above their August lows. There is not much change in the... READ MORE
After a high volume surge at the start of September, Charles Schwab (SCHW) moved into a trading range the last two weeks. The pattern this month looks like a flat flag with resistance at the May trendline. A move above 14.10 would break flag resistance and expanding volume would... READ MORE