The 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (TLT) continues to trend higher within a large rising price channel. The ETF surged above the channel during the finance crisis of 2008, but returned to this channel in 2009 and resumed its rise in 2010. Long-term support is set at 85. Click this image... READ MORE
The monthly chart below shows the S&P 500 holding its 12-month moving average throughout long-term moves over the last 9 years. A decisive close above or below this 12-month moving average has been indicative of a long-term trend change, which occurred last month. Also notice that MACD(5,... READ MORE
Believe it or not, the Technology SPDR (XLK) is outperforming the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in July. The chart below shows four price relatives comparing the performance of the Technology SPDR (XLK), Industrials SPDR (XLI), Financials SPDR (XLF) and Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) to the S&P... READ MORE
On the daily chart, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) stalled with a small gain on the day. After Friday's sharp decline, a little indecision or a small rebound is normal. There is really no change on the daily chart. The falling wedge still dominates the overall... READ MORE
The PerfChart below shows the percentage change for the nine sector SPDRs over the last five days (last week). Stocks were holding up well until Friday. With Friday's sharp decline, finance is now showing relative weakness because it declined more than the S&P 500 and more... READ MORE
Stocks moved sharply lower with a broad decline on Friday. The major indices were down from 2.52% (Dow) to 3.82% (Russell 2000). Small-caps continue showing relative weakness. All sectors were down with finance (-4.21%), consumer discretionary (-3.50%) and industrials (-3.34%) leading the way. Relative weakness... READ MORE
Cummins Engine came across the bearish engulfing scan as it opened strong and closed weak near resistance. The stock failed in the 74-76 area in April, May and June. July marks the fourth attempt. A move above resistance would break resistance from a rather large symmetrical triangle. Click this image... READ MORE
Even though last week's bounce continued this week, the indicator summary remains negative. The AD Lines and AD Volume Lines surged, but remain below their June highs (resistance). Another strong week would likely push these indicators above resistance and into bull mode. This means Mr Market is at... READ MORE
There is no change on the daily chart as SPY stalls just below its big resistance zone. On a closing basis, there have been three moves in excess of 6% over the last 26 days (blue arrows). First, SPY bottomed on June 7th and advanced 6.4% in nine days.... READ MORE
There was a little delay, but the positive correlation between the Euro the US stocks remains in place. The Euro ETF (FXE) bottomed on June 29 and SPY bottomed two days later. FXE surged in early July and SPY followed the Euro high the second week of July. Click this... READ MORE
There is no change on the daily chart as SPY stalls just below its big resistance zone. On a closing basis, there have been three moves in excess of 6% over the last 26 days (blue arrows). First, SPY bottomed on June 7th and advanced 6.4% in nine days.... READ MORE
The Apple chart shows signs of increased selling pressure with a steady decline in On Balance Volume (OBV) the last 2-3 months. OBV peaked in mid April, formed a lower high in late June and moved to new lows in July. With Apple (AAPL) hitting a new high in late... READ MORE
Stocks were oversold 7-8 days ago and an oversold bounce was expected. However, I must admit that I did not expect a move all the way to the 110-113 resistance zone, especially after sharpness of the prior decline. On a closing basis, there have been three moves in excess of... READ MORE
See the Market Message for today's commentary ( click here).... READ MORE
The Nasdaq Point & Figure chart sports a clear downtrend with a bearish resistance line and a downside price objective around 1900. According to this chart, the trend will remain down until there is a break above the bearish resistance line, which is currently around 2345. Click this image for... READ MORE
There is no change on the daily chart. SPY remains in a downtrend overall and is currently trading near the middle of its seven week range (113-101). A falling wedge defines the overall downtrend with a resistance zone around 110-113 from the June highs. Even though last week's... READ MORE
After sharp declines in late June and early July, gold and silver are testing important support zones from their prior lows. The fist chart shows the Gold ETF (GLD) hitting new 52-week highs in late June. These highs did not hold long as GLD declined towards support around 114-116. This... READ MORE
Even if you do not invest in Fidelity Funds, the Fidelity Funds Carpet can be used to find outperforming and underperforming groups. Over the last 6 days, bond funds have been lagging and international funds have been leading. Within the US, Energy Services are leading and Gold is lagging. Click... READ MORE
Even with this week's bounce, the indicator summary remains decidedly negative. The AD Lines and AD Volume Lines remain in clear downtrends and bullish divergences have yet to appear. NYSE Net New Highs have yet to break down, but have yet to surge higher. The S&P... READ MORE
On the daily chart, SPY remains in a downtrend overall and is currently trading in the middle of its seven week range. This range includes the mid June high around 113 and the early July low around 101. A falling wedge defines the overall downtrend with a resistance zone around... READ MORE
Over the last 10 trading days, the Utilities SPDR (XLU) is the only sector sporting a gain. Utilities show both absolute and relative strength. Click this image for details... READ MORE
Stocks surged yesterday with a pretty strong advance. Advances swamped declines and advancing volume far exceeded declining volume - on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. Volume was light, but volume should be light during the summer so I am not concerned with volume at this point. All sectors were... READ MORE
The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) surged above 61 intraday, but gave up sizable gains and closed near 59. The ETF even closed below last week's low. The indicator window shows the IWM:SPY ratio, which compares small-caps to large-caps. This ratio is moving lower as small-caps lead lower.... READ MORE
Stocks were strangely mixed on Tuesday with the large-cap indices edging higher and the small-cap indices falling rather sharply. The S&P 500 and Dow gained around .50%, but the Russell 2000 and S&P 600 SmallCap Index lost around 1.50%. The Russell 2000 was up over... READ MORE
The S&P 500 is now down nine of the last 10 days. Notice the nine red candlesticks and the lone black candlestick. In addition, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) has been oversold since the decline below 1040. Click this image for details... READ MORE
After a steep decline the last two weeks, stocks are deeply oversold and pessimism is running rampant. A story on Bob Prechter's "take cover" forecast is the "most emailed" article in the New York Times. The 50-day SMA closed below the 200-day SMA in... READ MORE
Of the six equity indices shown below, the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) is the weakest in 2010 with a 27.56% loss (year-to-date). The Nikkei 225 ($NIKK), French CAC 40 ($CAC) and London FTSE ($FTSE) are all down double digits. The S&P 500 is holding up relatively well with... READ MORE
With a sharp decline the last two weeks, all indicators are in bear mode. The indicator summary turned negative last Friday (-4) and moved to -10 this week. Oversold conditions and excessive bearish sentiment are the only positives in the stock market right now. This may produce an oversold bounce,... READ MORE
After a 9 day 9.7% decline from high to low, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) formed a hammer by closing well above its intraday low. I do not think this was the big selling climax, but it does mark an intraday reversal that could put in a... READ MORE
New 52-week lows are expanding on the Nasdaq and new 52-week highs are drying up. Net New Highs (new 52-week highs less new 52-week lows) is an easy way to assess the battle for new 52-week extremes. Net New Highs first dipped below -100 in early May and has dipped... READ MORE
Stocks attempted to hold their ground on Wednesday, but afternoon selling pressure drove the major index ETFs below Tuesday's lows. The major index ETFs were down around 1%. All sectors were lower with technology, consumer discretionary and finance leading the way down. Relative weakness in these three reinforces... READ MORE
Also known as RSI on steroids, StochRSI is the Stochastic Oscillator applied to RSI values. It becomes overbought and oversold a lot more than both indicators. SMH declined to support in the 25.5-26 area as StochRSI moved below .20 to become oversold. The cup is half full for StochRSI... READ MORE
At this point the medium-term trends (daily charts) are clearly in bear mode (downtrends). However, the major index ETFs are short-term oversold after sharp declines. In addition, many are trading near potential support from their May lows. "Potential" is the key word here. Support levels are potential in... READ MORE
With a sharp decline early Tuesday, the S&P 500 is once again testing the May-June lows. In fact, this test also involves the February low. The 1040 level held in February, late May and early June. Can it handle another assault? Click this image for a live chart.... READ MORE
The demise of the consumer discretionary remains the most important event of the last few weeks. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) was holding up fine in May, but came down hard in June and is the weakest of the eight sectors this month. Consumer discretionary is no ordinary sector. It... READ MORE
For the second time in two weeks, the Gold ETF (GLD) surged above resistance at 122 and then moved back below with a long red candlestick. The overall uptrend in GLD remains in place, but there is considerable resistance in this area. First support is set at last week'... READ MORE
After a four day decline, SPY formed a big spinning top to establish a potential support zone around 107-108. These candlesticks have small bodies and long upper/lower shadows. The small bodies reflect little change from open to close. The upper and lower shadows indicate movement during the day that... READ MORE
The Euro Top-100 Index ($EUR) is forming a potentially lower high with bearish momentum. After a bounce in June, the index reversed course this week with an outside reversal well below the April high. MACD moved into negative territory in late May and remains in negative territory. Click this image... READ MORE
There have been three changes in the last three weeks. The summary turned negative on 11-June, positive on 18-June and negative again on 24-June. Interpretation of these indicators is somewhat subjective. For instance, the NYSE AD Line appears to be forming a lower high with this week's sharp... READ MORE
The daily chart is looking rather ugly. It all started with Monday's reversal day near the 50% retracement. Selling pressure continued on Tuesday with a move below the resistance breakout. A little uncertainty surrounding the Fed announcement made for indecisive trading on Wednesday, but no gains were to... READ MORE