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A weekly outside reversal working for $DIA
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
As of late Thursday afternoon, the Dow SPDR (DIA) was forming a weekly outside reversal. Notice how Monday's trading started above last week's close and is now below last week's open. This week's reversal has completely engulfed the prior white candlestick.
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SPY consolidates below support break
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
On the daily chart, SPY failed to hold the breakout at 110.5 and remains below support from broken resistance. Is this just a pullback or the start of a bigger decline? Ideally, a pullback should be a little tamer. The sharp Monday-Tuesday reversal day is dominating the picture here....
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Markets turn defensive ahead of Fed
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The PerfChart below shows the performance for five intermarket related ETFs over the last two days. Stocks and the oil are down as money moved out of risk ahead of Wednesday's FOMC policy statement. Conversely, bonds, gold and the Dollar are up as money moved into relative safety....
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SPY breaks support ahead of FOMC
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks took it on the chin Tuesday with big losses in the major index ETFs. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and S&P 400 MidCap ETF (MDY) led the way lower with losses greater than 2%. All sectors were down with energy, materials, utilities, industrials and consumer discretionary losing...
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Shanghai Composite remains relatively weak
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Despite a big bounce on Monday's currency news, the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) remains within a trading range and continues to show relative weakness. After a sharp decline in April-May, the index formed a triangle consolidation around 2550. Watch these boundaries for the next directional clue. Also notice that...
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A wild day in the market
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It was a pretty crazy day on Wall Street - and in the rest of the markets. Stocks surged in early trading on news that China would allow the Yuan to strengthen for the first time since July 2005. Obviously, China is not in any hurry to let its currency...
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Yuan Fund surges to long-term moving average
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
News that China adjusted its currency's peg to the Dollar sent the Chinese Yuan Fund (CYB) surging back above 25. While the three week move may seem impressive, the ETF is really just making it back to its 52-week average. In fact, the ETF spent most of 2009...
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SPY holds its breakout
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks held their ground on Friday and most major indices ended with small gains, very small gains. Sectors were mixed with three down, five up and one unchanged (tech). Over the last two weeks, industrials and technology have been leading the market higher, but consumer discretionary and finance have been...
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A BREADTH THRUST FOR THE MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Before getting into this breadth thrust, let's review the McClellan Oscillator and McClellan Summation Index. Basically, the McClellan Oscillator is the 19-day EMA of Net Advances less the 39-day EMA of Net Advances (advances less declines). Like MACD, it is a momentum oscillator for Net Advances. The McClellan...
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Staples forms bearish engulfing
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Staples surged with the rest of the market over the prior seven days, but hit resistance from broken support with a bearish engulfing candlestick on Thursday. Also notice that the falling 200-day EMA and the 50% retracement mark.
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Indicator Summary flips positive
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After one week in negative territory, the indicator summary flipped back into positive territory on Friday, 18-June. The surge over the last eight days was strong enough to trigger a breakout in the NYSE AD Volume Line and pushed the 10-day SMA for NYSE Net New Highs into positive territory...
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Stocks eke out another gain
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks traded mixed most of the day, but a late rally pushed the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow into positive territory for the close. The final gain was small though. In addition, the Russell 2000 and S&P 600 SmallCap Index both finished with small losses. Once...
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GE forms rising flag near support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
GE is trying to bounce off its February low, but the bounce look feeble so far and the stock shows relative weakness. The stock shows relative weakness because the S&P 500 broke above resistance and GE remains below corresponding resistance. The support zone around 15-15.5 is holding...
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Market turns mixed after big advance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After a big advance the prior six days, trading turned mixed as the market consolidated its gains. Over the last seven days, IWM is up 7.74%, MDY is up 7.2%, QQQQ is up 6.13%, SPY is up 5.01% and DIA is up 4.88%. Even though...
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Apple challenges resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Apple (AAPL) remains one of the strongest stocks as it surges to resistance from the April-June highs. The stock formed a triangle over the last 2-3 months and broke the upper trendline today. Volume was light though. QQQQ traders should note that Apple accounts for 18.84% of the ETF....
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Breakouts and resistance challenges
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks surged on Tuesday with the major index ETFs gaining over 2%. The gains were rather uniform with a range from 2.27% in the S&P 100 to 2.82% in the Nasdaq 100. Even though the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 gained more than the S&P...
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Airline Index closes in on 52-week high
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Airlines continue to show relative strength and upside leadership. First, the Airline Index ($XAL) is challenging its April high with a big move on Tuesday. A break would forge a new 52-week high. Second, the price relative broke out in late May and recorded a new high this week.
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Selling pressure at resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Trading turned mixed as the Dow and S&P 500 tested important resistance levels. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished with small gains, but the Dow and Nasdaq 100 finished with small losses. The Russell 2000 and S&P 400 Midcap Index closed with modest gains...
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Commodities follow stocks
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With the exception of precious metals, commodity indices have gone the way of the stock market over the last eight weeks. The PerfChart below shows the S&P 500 six commodity related indices. Only the GSCI Precious Metals Index ($GPX) shows a gain since mid April.
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SPY surges off support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The surge over the last two days did not occur on the strongest breadth or volume, but support from the February low held and the bigger uptrend remains in place. As long as the bigger trend is up, the odds favor the bulls as SPY surges off support. Selling pressure...
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A lot of fill black candlesticks
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Looking through the pre-defined scans page, it was surprising to see a high number of filled black candlesticks on Thursday. These candlesticks form when the close is below the open and the close is above the prior close. Even though the stock closed up for the day, the stock moved...
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Indicator Summary turns negative
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Small-caps broke down this week and the Bullish Percent Index indicator turned bearish. These two were enough to turn the indicator summary negative for the first time since March 5th. Techs were also hit hard this week, but the $COMPQ:$NYA ratio remains in an uptrend. In addition, the consumer...
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SPY gaps and closes strong
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks surged with a broad rally that lifted most boats. All major indices were up 3% or so. The Russell 2000 (+3.48%) slightly outperformed the S&P 500 (+2.95%). The Russell 2000 should have been up 5% on a day like today (damper number 1). All sectors...
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Bullish Percent Indices below 50%
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stockcharts.com tracks the Bullish Percent Indices (BPI) for six major indices and 10 sectors. The BPIs for the major indices are below 50% and eight of the ten sectors have BPIs below 50%. Only telecom and utilities have BPIs above 50%. These numbers can be found at the bottom...
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Stocks give back their gains
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks surged in early trading with SPY moving above 108 in the morning, but gave back these gains, and more, with an afternoon plunge. There it is again: another late round of selling pressure. A lack of buying pressure and a small increase in selling pressure is all it takes...
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Dow breaks Ichimoku cloud
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Ichimoku Clouds, a form of Japanese technical analysis, show a trend reversal in the Dow Industrials. The senior average broke below the cloud formation and the "Standard Line" moved below the cloud formation. This is the red line, which is a moving average of the 26-day high-low range....
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A lopsided bounce
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The stock market rebounded on Tuesday, but the bounce was rather lopsided as techs lagged significantly. The S&P 500 and the Dow gained over 1%, but the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 finished slightly negative. Small-caps and techs are starting to show relative weakness and this is not a...
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VIX bounces off support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) surged in May and broke above its January-February high. After a pullback, the index found support near broken resistance and bounced the last few days. Also notice that the S&P 500 hit resistance near broken support.
Click this image for...
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Oversold and near the Feb low
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It was another day of heavy selling pressure, but not as heavy as Friday. The AD Lines and AD Volume Lines for the Nasdaq and NYSE all moved to new lows for the move. Even with these new lows, selling pressure is less than it was in May. The first...
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An evening star for IBM
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With a short-term reversal in stocks over the last three days, the evening star scan was about as full as it's been in a long time. IBM formed an evening star with a long white candlestick on Wednesday, a gap-stall on Thursday and a gap-decline on Friday. Volume...
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SPY fails at resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks were hit hard on Friday with the major indices losing 3-5%. The Dow held up the best with a 3.15% loss, while the Russell 2000 fared the worst with a 5% loss. Stocks started with a sharp gap down and continued lower throughout the day. Buyers were nowhere...
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RSI remains bearish for SPY
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Relative Strength Index remains below 50 and bearish for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Bounded momentum oscillators trade within a defined range. RSI trades between zero and one hundred with fifty as the centerline. Think of this level as the 50 yard line in a football game....
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XLY and XLK show relative strength
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The sector perfchart provides an easy means to identify the leaders and laggards. Even though all sectors are down over the last three weeks (since May 13), some are down more than the S&P 500 (laggards) and some are down less (leaders). It is positive to see the...
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Indicator Summary remains positive
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There is no real change in the indicator summary. The market remains split with some bearish indicators and some bullish indications. This is normal after a severe correction that tests the viability of the long-term bull market (March 2009 to present). Chart-wise, the February lows are holding and this keeps...
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Techs and small-caps lead
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Even though the Dow gained just .06% and the S&P 500 was up .46%, the Nasdaq gained .96% and the Russell 2000 was up 1.05%. Techs and small-caps doubled the gains seen in the large-cap dominated S&P 500. Relative strength in these two groups is...
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Natural Gas ETF surges above April high
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The US Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is perking up with a little break above the April-May highs today. However, like the commodity itself, UNG remains in a long-term downtrend. After consolidating the last two months, the breakout argues for an oversold bounce that could retrace 50% of the prior decline....
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A pretty impressive rally
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After declining on Friday and Tuesday, stocks rallied throughout the day on Wednesday. This is especially impressive when we consider that European stocks were down sharply and the Euro was getting hit on Wednesday morning. Stocks managed to shrug off bad geopolitical news and rally. There was even a dip...
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Bollinger Bands contract for Micron
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Micron Technology (MU) is testing support with a consolidation over the last four weeks. Support in the 8.25-8.5 area stems from the February lows. The stock has been trading between 8.25 and 9.5 since May 10th. Also notice that the Bollinger Bands are narrowing. Look for...
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SPY breaks wedge support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Weakness in Asia and Europe led to a weak open on Wall Street, but stocks managed to firm in the first hour and tech stocks led a morning rebound. These gains were holding in the early afternoon, but selling pressure in the final hour pushed stocks sharply lower. Small-caps and...
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3 Inside Days for Microsoft
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After becoming oversold and plunging on high volume last week, Microsoft is starting to firm with three inside days. Notice the long red candlestick on high volume four days ago. Was that a selling climax? The stock has traded the last three days in the upper half of the long...
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