This post will provide a resource link and scan code from the On Trend episodes focusing on RSI for trend-following and momentum strategies. This is a two-part series that goes from RSI basics to a twenty year backtest on stocks in the S&P 500. These episodes will show... READ MORE
The Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) experienced a trend-momentum shift over the last few months as RSI moved from its bear range to its bull range. In addition, RSI came close to 70 (69.5) twice and EEM broke above its 200-day SMA. The downtrend reversed and I expect higher prices... READ MORE
The Biotech SPDR (XBI) is trading at a make-or-break point as it consolidates near the 40-week SMA. Traders should watch for the resolution of this consolidation because it will dictate the next directional move. The chart below shows XBI surging from the mid 60s to the lower 90s and then... READ MORE
AT&T (T) was one of the worst performing stocks in 2018 with a 20% decline and 52-week low in late December. 2019 is starting out much better with a double-digit gain and a break above the November-February highs, which also mark neckline resistance of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.... READ MORE
* S&P 500 Stalls within Uptrend. * Upswing Dominates Weekly SPX Chart. * Index Breadth Table Remains Bullish. * IJR: Failure at 200-day or Mere Correction? * Sector Table - Staples Get a Lift. * XLI Hits Make-or-break Zone. * UTX Consolidates around the 200-day. * MMM Consolidates above 200-day. * Palladium Takes a Tumble. * ChartList Updates.... READ MORE
* S&P 500 Holds as Russell Rolls Over. * Plenty of New Highs in $SPX. * ChartList Updates - 3 Additions. Are we in a bull market, a bear market or neither? At this point, the evidence is still more bullish than bearish, but there are clearly some pockets of weakness... READ MORE
TJX Companies (TJX) is part of the S&P 500 and the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY). It is also part of two growth ETFs (PWB and PXLG). Even though TJX is part of an economically sensitive sector, I would put them in a different category because they are known... READ MORE
* RSI Holds Bear Range for S&P 500 * A Classical Reversal Area for Russell 2000 * Small-cap Breadth Indicators Flip * Selling Pressure in Key Groups * ChartList Updates RSI Holds Bear Range for S&P 500 The S&P 500 remains above its slightly rising 40-week SMA, but this... READ MORE
* Bigger Downtrends or Simply Resting? * Bank ETFs Fail at 200-day SMAs. * Small-cap Indexes Fail near Retracements. * Oil Nears Potential Reversal Zone. * Focus on the True Leaders. * S&P 500 Maintains Uptrend. * Index Breadth Table Remains Bullish. * Sector Breadth Table is More Mixed. * Staples, Utilities, REITs and Tech. * Bonds Extend... READ MORE
The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) is not only lagging the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) in March, but it is also under selling pressure and down month-to-date. Typically, I am not concerned with relative weakness in small-caps when they are simple up less... READ MORE
There are often smaller patterns within larger patterns and traders can get a jump on a bigger breakout by acting on the smaller pattern first. For example, a cup-with-handle is a bullish continuation pattern that typically forms over a few months. A falling flag is also a bullish continuation pattern,... READ MORE
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) hit a new high in November and then moved into a corrective phase. Keep in mind that a correction can involve a decline or a consolidation, or even a combination of the two. AAP fell back towards the rising 200-day SMA in December and then stalled... READ MORE
Amazon is lagging the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and the broader market over the last two months because it has yet to clear its January high and remains below the 200-day SMA. This is part of the reason the Invesco Momentum ETF (SPMO) is underperforming the Invesco Minimum Volatility ETF... READ MORE
Anyone recognize these two phones? A good old indestructible Nokia candy bar was the first phone for many of us. I had a few Nokia cellphones over the years and they always worked great, back in the day. And, we all remember the Nokia ring tone, which was the most... READ MORE
* 20-day Holds above 200-day for S&P 500 * Weekly RSI Holds above 50. * Large-caps Lead Index Breadth. * Tech, Utilities and REITs Lead Sector Breadth. * The Dreaded Shakeout (VRTX). * Consider Position Sizing (SCWX). * Consider Profit Targets (PYPL). * ChartList Updates. ... 20-day Holds above 200-day ... The S&P 500 sneezed last... READ MORE
Diodes (DIOD), a semiconductor stock, is returning to the trend mean and this could provide a bullish setup to take part in the long-term uptrend. The chart below shows DIOD with a breakout and surge to new highs in February. Note that the stock also recorded new highs in autumn... READ MORE
Seagate Technology was one of the weakest tech stocks in 2018 as it fell around 40% from the April high to the October low. Things appear to be turning about here in 2019 as stock finds its footing and triggers two breakouts. The chart below shows STX with two lows... READ MORE
* The First Pullback of the Year. * A Big Drawn-out Range. * Index Breadth Table Update. * Sector Table Update. * Finance Fails below November High. * Retail and Banks Get Pummeled. * A Bullish Continuation for Bonds. * ChartList Updates. ... The First Pullback of the Year ... The S&P 500 fell the last four days... READ MORE
Tilray (TLRY) listed on the Nasdaq at $17 with an IPO in July and promptly surged above $300. The stock then worked its way below 100 over the next few months and managed to stabilize in the 65 to 80 zone this year. The chart below shows the Bollinger Bands... READ MORE
Sorry, I could not resist that title. Today's commentary will focus on the Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) and six of its components. I am sure there are other cannabis-related names out there, but I would like to focus on the purer plays. For example, the Advisor Shares Vice... READ MORE
Google, or rather Alphabet, broke out of a short-term consolidation and this could have long-term implications. The chart below shows GOOGL hitting support in the 980-1000 area from October to December. This support zone extends back to December 2017 and represents a whole lot of demand. Buyers are clearly active... READ MORE
We are all well aware of the S&P 500 and the 200-day moving average, but how well does this moving average work for broad market timing? Pretty well, it turns out, but only on the long side. I put the 200-day moving average to the test for the... READ MORE
* Resistance in an Uptrend? * Bulk of the Evidence Bullish. * Utilities, REITs and Industrials Lead in Price. * Finance Holds Flag Breakout. * When Bad News is Good (SQ). * Volume Picks up in Fox Factory. * A Classic Breakout and Throwback (SCWX). * ChartList Updates. ... Resistance in an Uptrend? ... The S&P 500 advanced... READ MORE
Apple, Amazon and Alphabet account for around 9 percent of the S&P 500 SPDR and around 27 percent of the Nasdaq 100 ETF. Thus, the next directional move in these three will clearly impact the broader market. As the charts now stand, Apple, Amazon and Alphabet are lagging... READ MORE
It is a mixed bag for the big biotech stocks this year. Of the top ten stocks in IBB, five are underperforming SPY and five are outperforming. Regeneron is slightly outperforming SPY this year and sports a bullish pattern on the price chart. First and foremost, the bigger trend is... READ MORE
Another Obvious Resistance Level If the S&P 500 declines from current levels, we will be able to look back at this level and see it as an "obvious" resistance level. Ain't hindsight great! Keep in mind, however, that this is the third "obvious&... READ MORE
The daily chart for Vertex (VRTX) is quite a mess with several dips under the 200-day SMA over the last ten months, but a short-term bullish pattern is shaping up and the weekly chart also sports a bullish setup. Let's look at the weekly chart first because the... READ MORE
The 200-day moving average is perhaps the most widely used moving average and the S&P 500 is the most widely followed benchmark for the U.S. stock market. Taken together, the S&P 500 and the 200-day SMA can be used to identify major trends in the... READ MORE
* Mid-caps and Small-caps Join Large-caps. * Breadth Tables Improve. * XLU Shows Strongest Breadth. * Changing My Mindset. * Home Construction iShares Clears 200-day. * Three Flags at Different Breakout Stages. * Pfizer Gets Second Breakout. * Berry Plastics Completes Big Reversal. * Expedia Breaks Channel. * ChartList Notes and Deletions. ... Mid-caps and Small-caps Join Large-caps ... The Mid-Cap %Above... READ MORE
When sitting down to a chart, or even standing, establishing the direction of the bigger trend is the first task. The direction of this trend establishes my trading bias and tells me where to focus. My trading bias is bullish when the trend is up and this means I focus... READ MORE
* Six of Nine Breadth Indicators Bullish. * November 2015 All Over Again? * JP Morgan, Bank of America and Citigroup Break Out. * A Successful Test for Disney. * ChartList Addition and Deletion. * On Trend on YouTube. Breadth Indicators Flip Back to Bullish The S&P 500 turned net bullish on February 5th... READ MORE
Chartists can compare two price plots to find early signs of relative strength. This can be done by comparing the corresponding peaks or troughs for two names, such as the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) and the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY). It is a sign of relative strength when... READ MORE
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that chartists can use to measure the strength behind a price move. Moreover, chartists can also use RSI values to rank momentum and find the leaders. As an indicator that measures the magnitude of gains relative to the magnitude of losses,... READ MORE
* Reviewing the Weight of the Evidence * New Highs Expand in XLK * Sector Table is Net Bullish (XLK, XLV, XLI Lead) * What If December-January Never Happened? * Four Consolidations to Watch (XLF, IAI, XRT, IBB) * New Additions to the ChartList * AMD Keeps Flag Alive * Finisar Holds Breakout * Intuitive Surgical Breaks Pennant * Walgreens-Boots... READ MORE
Chinese stocks came to life after their New Year's holiday with the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) and some ETFs breaking double bottom resistance. Before looking at these charts, let's review the double bottom, which is a bullish reversal pattern. First and foremost, there must be a downtrend... READ MORE
We are 29 trading days into 2019 and the S&P 500 is up a very respectable 9.49%. Furthermore, some 465 stocks in the S&P 500 are up year-to-date, which means 35 are down year-to-date. CBOE Holdings (CBOE) is one of these stocks (-3.91% year-to-date)... READ MORE
* SPX High-Low Percent Nears Signal Flip. * Intuitive Surgical Breaks Out. * Walgreens-Boots Bounces off 200-day. * Careful with AMD. * RSI Improvements in Intel. ... Five of the nine breadth indicators are on bearish signals right now, but S&P 500 High-Low% ($SPXHLP) reached 9.8% on Tuesday and is close to triggering... READ MORE
... The stock market took a rest last week as the S&P 500 stalled in the 2708 area, which is just below the 200-day SMA. Note that the S&P 500 rose 24 of the last 31 days and gained around 15% in six weeks. It still looks... READ MORE
Microsoft is battling the rising 200-day moving average and making a bid to shift momentum back to the bulls. The chart shows MSFT falling along with the market from October to December and then rebounding sharply in January. The stock is currently consolidating around the 200-day SMA with a pennant,... READ MORE
* Breadth Indicators Fall Short. * S&P 500 Backs off the 40 Week. * When to Tread Carefully. * Offensive Sectors Weigh. * Sector with Lowest Correlation to $SPX. * Utes Lead the Market. * Bond ETFs Consolidate within Uptrends. * ChartList Notes, Additions and Deletions. ... Breadth Indicators Fall Short ... The advance from late December to... READ MORE