Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill


Arthur is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro. Focused primarily on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within and setting key price levels has made him an industry-leading technician. Learn More 

Archived News

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Amazon Makes a Threat

Amazon Makes a Threat

Amazon is lagging the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and the broader market over the last two months because it has yet to clear its January high and remains below the 200-day SMA. This is part of the reason the Invesco Momentum ETF (SPMO) is underperforming the Invesco Minimum Volatility ETF...   READ MORE 

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Party Like it's 1999

Party Like it's 1999

Anyone recognize these two phones? A good old indestructible Nokia candy bar was the first phone for many of us. I had a few Nokia cellphones over the years and they always worked great, back in the day. And, we all remember the Nokia ring tone, which was the most...   READ MORE 

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - Large-caps Take the Lead

Weekly Market Review & Outlook - Large-caps Take the Lead

* 20-day Holds above 200-day for S&P 500 * Weekly RSI Holds above 50. * Large-caps Lead Index Breadth. * Tech, Utilities and REITs Lead Sector Breadth. * The Dreaded Shakeout (VRTX). * Consider Position Sizing (SCWX). * Consider Profit Targets (PYPL). * ChartList Updates. ...  20-day Holds above 200-day ... The S&P 500 sneezed last...   READ MORE 

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Diodes Returns to the Trend Mean

Diodes Returns to the Trend Mean

Diodes (DIOD), a semiconductor stock, is returning to the trend mean and this could provide a bullish setup to take part in the long-term uptrend. The chart below shows DIOD with a breakout and surge to new highs in February. Note that the stock also recorded new highs in autumn...   READ MORE 

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Seagate Rises from the Ashes

Seagate Rises from the Ashes

Seagate Technology was one of the weakest tech stocks in 2018 as it fell around 40% from the April high to the October low. Things appear to be turning about here in 2019 as stock finds its footing and triggers two breakouts. The chart below shows STX with two lows...   READ MORE 

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - Everywhere and Nowhere for SPX

Weekly Market Review & Outlook - Everywhere and Nowhere for SPX

* The First Pullback of the Year. * A Big Drawn-out Range. * Index Breadth Table Update. * Sector Table Update. * Finance Fails below November High. * Retail and Banks Get Pummeled. * A Bullish Continuation for Bonds. * ChartList Updates. ...  The First Pullback of the Year ... The S&P 500 fell the last four days...   READ MORE 

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Tilray Goes from Most Exciting to Most Boring

Tilray Goes from Most Exciting to Most Boring

Tilray (TLRY) listed on the Nasdaq at $17 with an IPO in July and promptly surged above $300. The stock then worked its way below 100 over the next few months and managed to stabilize in the 65 to 80 zone this year. The chart below shows the Bollinger Bands...   READ MORE 

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Are Cannabis Stocks Poised to Go Higher?

Are Cannabis Stocks Poised to Go Higher?

Sorry, I could not resist that title. Today's commentary will focus on the Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) and six of its components. I am sure there are other cannabis-related names out there, but I would like to focus on the purer plays. For example, the Advisor Shares Vice...   READ MORE 

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Google Goes Gaga

Google Goes Gaga

Google, or rather Alphabet, broke out of a short-term consolidation and this could have long-term implications. The chart below shows GOOGL hitting support in the 980-1000 area from October to December. This support zone extends back to December 2017 and represents a whole lot of demand. Buyers are clearly active...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 Clears the 200-day. Should we Take the Bait?

S&P 500 Clears the 200-day. Should we Take the Bait?

We are all well aware of the S&P 500 and the 200-day moving average, but how well does this moving average work for broad market timing? Pretty well, it turns out, but only on the long side. I put the 200-day moving average to the test for the...   READ MORE 

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - Resistance versus Uptrend

Weekly Market Review & Outlook - Resistance versus Uptrend

* Resistance in an Uptrend? * Bulk of the Evidence Bullish. * Utilities, REITs and Industrials Lead in Price. * Finance Holds Flag Breakout. * When Bad News is Good (SQ). * Volume Picks up in Fox Factory. * A Classic Breakout and Throwback (SCWX). * ChartList Updates. ...  Resistance in an Uptrend? ... The S&P 500 advanced...   READ MORE 

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Watching the Triple A Stocks for Clues on QQQ

Watching the Triple A Stocks for Clues on QQQ

Apple, Amazon and Alphabet account for around 9 percent of the S&P 500 SPDR and around 27 percent of the Nasdaq 100 ETF. Thus, the next directional move in these three will clearly impact the broader market. As the charts now stand, Apple, Amazon and Alphabet are lagging...   READ MORE 

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A Rejuvenated Regeneron Leads Biotech Group

A Rejuvenated Regeneron Leads Biotech Group

It is a mixed bag for the big biotech stocks this year. Of the top ten stocks in IBB, five are underperforming SPY and five are outperforming. Regeneron is slightly outperforming SPY this year and sports a bullish pattern on the price chart. First and foremost, the bigger trend is...   READ MORE 

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Third Time Lucky for Resistance?

Third Time Lucky for Resistance?

Another Obvious Resistance Level If the S&P 500 declines from current levels, we will be able to look back at this level and see it as an "obvious" resistance level. Ain't hindsight great! Keep in mind, however, that this is the third "obvious&...   READ MORE 

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Vertex Forges Bullish Setups on Two Timeframes

Vertex Forges Bullish Setups on Two Timeframes

The daily chart for Vertex (VRTX) is quite a mess with several dips under the 200-day SMA over the last ten months, but a short-term bullish pattern is shaping up and the weekly chart also sports a bullish setup. Let's look at the weekly chart first because the...   READ MORE 

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Just how Effective is the 200-day Moving Average?

Just how Effective is the 200-day Moving Average?

The 200-day moving average is perhaps the most widely used moving average and the S&P 500 is the most widely followed benchmark for the U.S. stock market. Taken together, the S&P 500 and the 200-day SMA can be used to identify major trends in the...   READ MORE 

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - Utes Lead as Finance Improves

Weekly Market Review & Outlook - Utes Lead as Finance Improves

* Mid-caps and Small-caps Join Large-caps. * Breadth Tables Improve. * XLU Shows Strongest Breadth. * Changing My Mindset. * Home Construction iShares Clears 200-day. * Three Flags at Different Breakout Stages. * Pfizer Gets Second Breakout. * Berry Plastics Completes Big Reversal. * Expedia Breaks Channel. * ChartList Notes and Deletions. ... Mid-caps and Small-caps Join Large-caps ... The Mid-Cap %Above...   READ MORE 

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Pfizer Bids to End Correction

Pfizer Bids to End Correction

When sitting down to a chart, or even standing, establishing the direction of the bigger trend is the first task. The direction of this trend establishes my trading bias and tells me where to focus. My trading bias is bullish when the trend is up and this means I focus...   READ MORE 

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Breadth Indicators Flip as Big Banks Take the Lead

Breadth Indicators Flip as Big Banks Take the Lead

* Six of Nine Breadth Indicators Bullish. * November 2015 All Over Again? * JP Morgan, Bank of America and Citigroup Break Out. * A Successful Test for Disney. * ChartList Addition and Deletion. * On Trend on YouTube. Breadth Indicators Flip Back to Bullish The S&P 500 turned net bullish on February 5th...   READ MORE 

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Techniques to Spot Early Signs of Relative Strength

Techniques to Spot Early Signs of Relative Strength

Chartists can compare two price plots to find early signs of relative strength. This can be done by comparing the corresponding peaks or troughs for two names, such as the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) and the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY). It is a sign of relative strength when...   READ MORE 

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Small and Mid Caps Take the Momentum Lead

Small and Mid Caps Take the Momentum Lead

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that chartists can use to measure the strength behind a price move. Moreover, chartists can also use RSI values to rank momentum and find the leaders. As an indicator that measures the magnitude of gains relative to the magnitude of losses,...   READ MORE 

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (w/Video) - S&P 500 Tilts Bullish

Weekly Market Review & Outlook (w/Video) - S&P 500 Tilts Bullish

* Reviewing the Weight of the Evidence * New Highs Expand in XLK * Sector Table is Net Bullish (XLK, XLV, XLI Lead) * What If December-January Never Happened? * Four Consolidations to Watch (XLF, IAI, XRT, IBB) * New Additions to the ChartList * AMD Keeps Flag Alive * Finisar Holds Breakout * Intuitive Surgical Breaks Pennant * Walgreens-Boots...   READ MORE 

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China Goes for a Breakout

China Goes for a Breakout

Chinese stocks came to life after their New Year's holiday with the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) and some ETFs breaking double bottom resistance. Before looking at these charts, let's review the double bottom, which is a bullish reversal pattern. First and foremost, there must be a downtrend...   READ MORE 

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CBOE Holdings Fails to Bounce

CBOE Holdings Fails to Bounce

We are 29 trading days into 2019 and the S&P 500 is up a very respectable 9.49%. Furthermore, some 465 stocks in the S&P 500 are up year-to-date, which means 35 are down year-to-date. CBOE Holdings (CBOE) is one of these stocks (-3.91% year-to-date)...   READ MORE 

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New Highs Expand - Plus Four Stocks

New Highs Expand - Plus Four Stocks

* SPX High-Low Percent Nears Signal Flip. * Intuitive Surgical Breaks Out. * Walgreens-Boots Bounces off 200-day. * Careful with AMD. * RSI Improvements in Intel. ... Five of the nine breadth indicators are on bearish signals right now, but S&P 500 High-Low% ($SPXHLP) reached 9.8% on Tuesday and is close to triggering...   READ MORE 

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Pennant Breakouts Remain in Play for SPY and QQQ - Six Stocks Consolidating above their 200-day SMAs

Pennant Breakouts Remain in Play for SPY and QQQ - Six Stocks Consolidating above their 200-day SMAs

... The stock market took a rest last week as the S&P 500 stalled in the 2708 area, which is just below the 200-day SMA. Note that the S&P 500 rose 24 of the last 31 days and gained around 15% in six weeks. It still looks...   READ MORE 

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Microsoft Bids for a Momentum Shift

Microsoft Bids for a Momentum Shift

Microsoft is battling the rising 200-day moving average and making a bid to shift momentum back to the bulls. The chart shows MSFT falling along with the market from October to December and then rebounding sharply in January. The stock is currently consolidating around the 200-day SMA with a pennant,...   READ MORE 

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with Video) - When to Tread Carefully

Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with Video) - When to Tread Carefully

* Breadth Indicators Fall Short. * S&P 500 Backs off the 40 Week. * When to Tread Carefully. * Offensive Sectors Weigh. * Sector with Lowest Correlation to $SPX. * Utes Lead the Market. * Bond ETFs Consolidate within Uptrends. * ChartList Notes, Additions and Deletions. ... Breadth Indicators Fall Short ... The advance from late December to...   READ MORE 

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Finance Sector Hits Moment-of-truth - Chart, Scan and Analyze the Bollinger Band Squeeze

Finance Sector Hits Moment-of-truth - Chart, Scan and Analyze the Bollinger Band Squeeze

* XLF Goes from Leader to Laggard. * XLF Hits Resistance and Retracement. * Bollinger Band Squeeze Chart. * Bollinger Band Squeeze Scan Code. * On Trend on StockChartsTV ...XLF Goes from Leader to Laggard ...The Financials SPDR (XLF) went from leader to laggard over the last six weeks as the broad market advance narrowed....   READ MORE 

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The Broker-Dealer iShares and Top Holdings Stall - Plus three Stocks

The Broker-Dealer iShares and Top Holdings Stall - Plus three Stocks

The Broker-Dealer iShares (IAI) led the market rebound from December 24th to January 18th and then stalled out over the last two weeks. As with the broader market, we can see two conflicting trends. The long-term trend is down because IAI hit a 52-week low in late December, remains below...   READ MORE 

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REITs, Utes and Healthcare Lead New High List

REITs, Utes and Healthcare Lead New High List

Chartists looking for the sectors with the most stocks in strong uptrends can turn to the High-Low Percent indicators. High-Low Percent equals new 52-week highs less new 52-week lows divided by total issues. This indicator is positive when new highs outnumber new lows and negative when new lows outnumber new...   READ MORE 

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Amazon and the Seismic RSI Shift

Amazon and the Seismic RSI Shift

The overall trend for Amazon shifted from bullish to bearish in October and RSI caught this shift. Before looking at RSI, let's review price action and the bigger trend at work. The chart shows Amazon moving to a new high in early September, forming a lower high in...   READ MORE 

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Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Between a Rock and a Hard Place

* Extended but Not Overbought. * SPY and QQQ Form Doji. * %Above 20-day EMA Holds Strong. * 4 Sector SPDRs above their 200-day SMAs. * On Trend on StockChartsTV. ... The stock market is in a tricky spot because the short-term uptrends are quite extended and the long-term trends are still down. The chart below...   READ MORE 

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Putting January Into Perspective

Putting January Into Perspective

One's outlook often depends on one's timeframe. This outlook can also be influenced by recent price action or a recency bias. The S&P 500 surged 7.87% in January and recorded its biggest monthly advance since October 2015. This surge, however, was preceded by...   READ MORE 

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (w/ video) - The Broken Record

Weekly Market Review & Outlook (w/ video) - The Broken Record

* Putting January Into Perspective. * Still Below December High. * Another Reversal Zone Appears. * SPY and the Pennant Breakout. * Participation begins the Wane. * REITs, Utes and Healthcare Lead New Highs. * XLU Extends on Breakout. * Charts that Make me Throw my Hands Up. * Choosing Another Timeframe. * The Powell Put Comes to Life. * Homebuilders...   READ MORE 

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Autozone Gets Back in Gear

Autozone Gets Back in Gear

Autozone (AZO) is a leading stock because it recorded a 52-week high in December and remains above the rising 200-day SMA. The S&P 500, on the other hand, recorded a 52-week low in December and remains below its 200-day SMA. The chart below shows AZO with a falling...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Consolidations Unfold within Conflicting Trends

Short-Term Consolidations Unfold within Conflicting Trends

* Moving into the Prior Battle Zone. * Pennant versus Gap for SPY. * Lowest Close in two Weeks for QQQ. * IWM Holds Up the Best. * Divide and Conquer with Sector Analysis. ... Moving into the Prior Battle Zone ... It's a mixed-up world out there as two trends compete and the major...   READ MORE 

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Another Gap for QQQ

Another Gap for QQQ

Last week (Monday) I featured an evening star reversal pattern in QQQ. This pattern did not foreshadow further weakness as QQQ firmed in the 161 area the next day and gapped up on Friday. This gap did not last long as QQQ gapped down on Monday morning and filled Friday&...   READ MORE 

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Charts to Keep an Eye on this Week

Charts to Keep an Eye on this Week

* Big Four Retake 50-day SMAs. * %Above 200-day Lags for XLP. * 52-week Highs for 22 REITs. * Jobless Claims Hit 40+ Year Low. * TLT Stalls between Key Levels. * Dollar Fails to Hold Breakout. * Gold Breaks out of Small Consolidation. * Shanghai Composite Forms Potential Double Bottom. * Delta Turns Indecisive. * Tesla Goes from Leader...   READ MORE 

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - A Race to the 200-day

Weekly Market Review & Outlook - A Race to the 200-day

* Big Move within Bigger Downtrend. * The Bullish Turn of the Month. * S&P 500 Could Challenge 200-day. * Junk Bonds Surge to Breakdown Zone. * Key Supports for Big Six Sectors. * Bull Flags in ITB and XHB. * Bonds Turning Up ahead of Fed. * International ETFs Outperforming S&P. ... Big Move...   READ MORE