Last week's reversal and breakout at 110 were positive, but the five week trend remains down. Participants got cold feet on Friday as SPY moved back below 110 by the close. Nevertheless the ETF is holding the majority of last Thursday's gains. A move below 106.... READ MORE
With the May decline, the S&P 500 tested the rising 12-month moving average for the first time since breaking above in July. Also notice that MACD (5,35,5) turned positive for the first time since the first half of 2008. The bulls are in good shape as... READ MORE
The Indicator Summary remains positive, just barely. I changed the name to better reflect the actual contents of the table. Two lagging indicators turned this week. Net New Highs turned bearish as the 10-day SMA moved into negative territory. The Bullish Percent Indices turned neutral because some moved below the... READ MORE
Stocks surged with a broad rally that lifted most boats. Over 90% of NYSE stocks advanced and over 85% of Nasdaq stocks were up on the day. Over 97% of NYSE volume was attributed to advancing issues. Over 90% of Nasdaq volume went into advancers. All major indices were up... READ MORE
Talk about the lost decade. With the May decline, the S&P 500 is trading in the middle of its 10 year range. Note that this is a semi-log scale that reflects percentage change. We are looking at the mother of all consolidations. Click this image for details... READ MORE
SPY followed through on Tuesday's reversal day with a surge above 109 in early trading, but failed to hold early gains and closed in negative territory for the day. It looks like a redux of Friday-Monday. While the inability to follow through is not positive, the two long... READ MORE
The Retail SPDR (XRT) is finding support just above the rising 150-day EMA with two white candlesticks in the last four days. There was a follow through attempt on Wednesday, but the ETF closed weak to establish resistance instead. Look for a move above Wednesday's high to reverse... READ MORE
The pieces are in place for a short-term bounce, but we have yet to see the catalyst that actually reverses the 5-week downtrend. On the daily chart, SPY opened weak with a gap below last week's low and then rallied to close near the high for the day.... READ MORE
On the daily chart, SPY remains in a 4-5 week downtrend with support from the February lows close at hand. Support in the 106 area is confirmed by the February lows, the May flash-crash low and Friday's piercing line. In addition, SPY was oversold after a 10+ percent... READ MORE
After a gap down and sharp decline in early May, Garmin (GRMN) formed a triangle consolidation the last few weeks. The gap and support break around 36 are bearish. A break below triangle support would signal a continuation of this decline. Click this image for details... READ MORE
The Materials SPDR (XLB) was one of the hardest hit sector SPDRs over the last four weeks. After a 15+ percent decline, the ETF is testing support from the February low. A big bullish engulfing pattern formed on Friday as the ETF opened weak and closed strong. Notice how the... READ MORE
The decline over the last four weeks was severe, but still within the realm of a bigger uptrend. The weekly chart still sports a series of higher highs and higher lows. A break below the February low is needed to end this series and call for the end of the... READ MORE
The BRIC ETF (BKF) has a large double top working over the last 6-9 months. With the April-May decline, the ETF broke support from the February low to confirm this pattern. Based on traditional technical analysis, the projected decline is to the low 30s. The height of the pattern is... READ MORE
How can the evidence remain bullish after the April-May decline? Looking back at the evidence in early February, which turned negative after the Jan-Feb pullback, these are the indicator that turned bearish: the McClellan Oscillators, the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX), momentum, offensive sector performance, small-cap performance and... READ MORE
With a gap down and 3.78% plunge, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is suddenly within a few percentage points of its February low. This reaction low defines the up trend on the weekly chart. A break below this low would reverse the uptrend that has been in... READ MORE
With the stock market down sharply in early trading on Thursday, Apollo Group (APOL) sticks out a like a sore thumb with a 2+ percent gain. The stock appeared to break support last week, but recovered with a high volume surge on Monday. Today's gain in the face... READ MORE
Indecision gripped the market yesterday as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) formed a classic long legged doji. It is still unclear if these are bull legs or bear legs. The overall trend is down on the daily chart as SPY formed a lower high below 118 and gapped... READ MORE
Stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday, but the Financials SPDR (XLF) managed a small gain. A snapshot from the Market Summary page shows the nine sector SPDRs. XLF is the only gainer as the ETF test the early May lows. Click this image for details... READ MORE
After a mild recovery day on Monday, stocks opened strong on Tuesday with many of the major index ETFs gapping up. And that was it. These opening gaps, though modest, did not last more than an hour as stocks moved lower the rest of the day. By the end of... READ MORE
The Market Summary can be viewed as a web page or as a Market Carpet. The snapshot below shows the Market Summary Carpet over the last 22 days (one month). There are a few green spots and lots of red. US Treasuries, the Dollar, Gold and Miners are the only... READ MORE
SPY continued lower on Monday morning with a dip below 112. This put SPY close to the 7-May close at 111.26 and within the 7-May candlestick body. After dipping below 112 in the late morning, buyers stepped into the market and pushed SPY to 113.95 on the close.... READ MORE
Netflix (NFLX) is up over 100% from its January lows, which makes it one of the top performers this year. However, signs of selling pressure are starting to creep in. First, the stock formed a bearish harami in late April and declined to 90. Second, a bearish evening star formed... READ MORE
Friday's action is continuing into Monday. As of 4AM ET, the Euro is getting slammed (1.227), gold is higher, US Treasuries are higher and oil is lower. Asian stocks followed Wall Street and Europe with sharp losses on Monday. European indices are down, but the losses are... READ MORE
The London FTSE ($FTSE) has an expanding right triangle working over the last 7-8 months. These are akin to broadening formations, which are also bearish reversal patterns. After an advance from 3500 in March-09 to 5250 in October-09, the index moved into a volatile consolidation period. Notice the higher highs... READ MORE
From the breadth charts page, users can get a glimpse of the AD Lines and cumulative Net New Highs lines for the NYSE, Nasdaq and Amex. The image below shows the cumulative Net New Highs lines for the NYSE and Nasdaq. Both flatted over the last two weeks, but have... READ MORE
After a drubbing over the prior two weeks, stocks rebounded with a sharp rally this week. For now, the drubbing was stronger than the rebound. However, the rebound established reaction lows in the AD Lines and the major index ETFs that should be watched for a possible trend reversal. A... READ MORE
SPY edged above Wednesday's high yesterday, but late selling pressure drove the ETF below Wednesday's low. This weak close affirms resistance from broken support. If I were to write a bearish script, it would be pretty much just what is playing out on the daily and... READ MORE
Last week was all about safety. This week is all about risk. The Sector PerfChart shows the offensive sectors outperforming the defensive sectors over the last four trading days. All sectors are up on an absolute basis. However, the consumer discretionary, technology, industrials and finance are up the most on... READ MORE
After some indecision around 116, the bulls reasserted themselves and pushed SPY another 1.40% higher on Wednesday. Monday's gap is holding and the cup remains half full. Over the last three days, SPY is up 5.56%, QQQQ is up 7.07% and IWM is up 9.... READ MORE
The Brazilian Bovespa Index ($BVSP) is testing support in the 62,000 area. There is a support zone from 60,000 to 61,300 that extends back to the late October low. The index has been swinging from this support zone to a resistance zone in the low 70,000... READ MORE
Despite the big bailout package from the EU over the weekend, the Euro moved lower on Tuesday as Forex traders renewed selling pressure. Gold surged as a substitute for fiat currencies. Once again we have both the Dollar and gold moving higher. I consider this negative for stocks and continued... READ MORE
As expected, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gapped above 115 on the open with a 4.08% opening surge. This is the third biggest opening gap (up) in years, perhaps ever. SPY gapped up 5.52% on 19-Sep-08 and 6.06% on 13-Oct-08. Guess what? These gaps did... READ MORE
Stock futures are trading sharply higher on news of a comprehensive $962 billion EU bailout package. As of 5AM ET, the Dow is up some 350 points, the S&P 500 is up 47, oil is up $3, gold is down $21, US bonds are down sharply, EU bonds... READ MORE
With a sharp decline the last four days, the Financials SPDR (XLF) entered a key retracement zone that may offer support. The area around 14.86-15.29 marks a 50-62% of the February-April rally. XLF is also oversold after a 12% decline in four weeks. Click this image for details... READ MORE
As deep as this week's decline has been, it was not enough to turn the position table net negative. The AD Lines and AD Volume Line were hit, but remain in uptrends and well above their February lows. Most of the Bullish Percent Indices are still above 50%... READ MORE
On the daily chart, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke support from the mid April lows and plunged to the 50% retracement mark. I am not sure what to make of the intraday plunge below 106 - except that I would hate to have had a sell order... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) is gearing up for the first test since the support break at 49. With a decline back to 46.70, the ETF is now back to broken resistance from the January highs. This area now becomes a possible support level to watch in the coming... READ MORE
I don't usually start with fundamental items, but Friday could be a real doozy. First, the German parliament is scheduled to vote on the Greek bailout. Needless to say, the German public is not too happy about subsidizing early retirement (55) and other Greek benefits. A NO vote... READ MORE
Despite a sharp decline in the stock market on Tuesday, Wal-mart managed a small gain near support and then surged on Wednesday with pretty good volume. This stock is a big part of the consumer staples sector. Click this image for details... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke range support with a gap down and long red candlestick. Selling pressure was broad based as all nine sectors were down. Healthcare held up the best with a .58% loss. On the daily chart, the next support zone stems from broken resistance... READ MORE