The Perfchart below shows eight industry groups over the last five weeks (25 trading days). Semis ($SOX) are by far the strongest group. Gold & Silver ($XAU) represent the weakest group. It is also notable that Banks ($BKS) are lagging the other advancing groups. Click this chart for details... READ MORE
AMGN, ANF, DRYS, GERN, GT, IGT, MOT, S , SII, SVNT, XLF, XLY... READ MORE
With another new 52-week high, SPY affirmed the underlying uptrend. The ETF broke resistance around 111 in late December and this breakout held the first day of 2010. A rising price channel has taken shape over the last five months. I am using the upper trendline extension for an upside... READ MORE
The iPath Natural Gas ETF ($GAZ) surged over 4% after a cold front slammed the Northeast. On the chart below, notice that GAZ broke resistance in mid December and broken resistance then turned into support. Click this image for a live chart.... READ MORE
SPY affirmed its uptrend with a break above consolidation resistance at 111 just before Christmas and a new 52-week high last week. The ETF was holding above 112 on New Year's Eve, but late selling pressure pushed SPY below 111.5 by the close. Even though a long... READ MORE
The technology sector has led the market higher over the last 10 days. Using the slider at the bottom, the Sector Market Carpet is set to show price performance over the last 10 days. Technology is the greenest of the nine sectors - followed by materials, energy and financials. Click... READ MORE
All sectors were up for the year, but some were up more than others. In fact, of the nine sectors, only three outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 12 months: consumer discretionary, technology and materials. The remaining six sectors were up less than the S&P... READ MORE
After a five day surge from 110 to 113, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) took a breather on Tuesday with a small decline. SPY was trading in positive territory in the afternoon, but got hit with a late sell-off that pushed prices into negative territory. A small bearish... READ MORE
As the market summary table shows, the bulk of the evidence is firmly bullish. In fact, the Nasdaq AD Line is the only negative out there right now and the table is almost all green. The weight of the evidence has favored the bulls since inception (September). At +11, the... READ MORE
-Evidence remains bullish -Net New Highs expand in December -NYSE AD Line hits 52-week high -Nasdaq AD Volume Line hits 52-week high -McClellan Oscillators surge above 50 -Bullish Percent Indices move higher -Volatility indices move to new lows -Trend and momentum are bullish -Offensive sectors show strength overall -Techs and... READ MORE
The Perfchart below shows the DB Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) with nine other currency ETFs. Even though the Dollar is still down for the year, it is up around 4% for December. The Euro and Yen, which represent our two biggest trading partners, are down the most. Click this chart... READ MORE
There is no change in SPY as the ETF edged higher on Monday. Trading remains thin, but there are still more buyers than sellers out there. Even though low volume levels, overbought conditions and sustainability may be a concern, there can be no turn until selling pressure overcomes buying pressure.... READ MORE
Even though year has a few days left, the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) is one of the top performing indices in 2009. The Perfchart below compares the performance of this Chinese index against six other major indices. The Australian All Ords Index ($AORD) is a distant second and the S&... READ MORE
-Bonds breakdown as stocks hit new high -Dollar getting short-term overbought -Gold finds support near broken resistance -Oil recovers after early December drop -Bonds break support with sharp decline ***************************************************************** Dollar getting short-term overbought After a big surge the last four weeks, the US Dollar Index ($USD) is short-term overbought and... READ MORE
Stocks moved higher with a classic Santa Claus rally last week and the bulls remain in control. Techs and small-caps led the rally as QQQQ and IWM advanced around 5% in the last five trading days. Though not as strong, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) advanced over 2%... READ MORE
The CandleGlance sector page provides an easy means to see all eight Sector SPDRs on one page. One can identify sectors hitting new highs (leading) and sector trading below their prior highs (lagging). CandleGlance groups are also good candlestick spotting. Click this chart for details... READ MORE
The Free Charting Tools page shows the most active lists on the left side. There is a Perfchart link at the bottom of each list that will show the 10 most actives together. Over the last 200-day days, Ford (F) is the big winner with a gain in excess of... READ MORE
There is no change in the short-term or medium-term picture. Updated charts are shown below. The next commentary will be on Monday, December 28th. Happy Holidays!... READ MORE
As the dynamic yield curve shows, the Treasury yield curve remains inordinately steep. The 3-month T-Bill Rate ($IRX) is around .50% and the 30-year Treasury Yield ($TYX) is currently around 4.6%. Long-term rates are nine times higher than short-term rates. This means monetary policy at the Fed remains loose.... READ MORE
-Six weeks and seven gaps -Homebuilders on the hot seat -Retail SPDR breaks triangle -Oil Service HOLDRs hits resistance -Charts of Interest BOOM, CERN, EBAY, EP, GE , GERN, HCBK, ISIL, LSI, QCOM, SVNT - Click here for the video page... READ MORE
boom, cern, ebay, ep, ge , gern, hcbk, isil, lsi, qcom, svnt... READ MORE
After a rally the last two weeks, the Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) is bumping up against resistance from the October trendline and the late November highs. Also notice that this bounce retraced around 62% of the decline from mid November to early December. With the ETF starting to stall, traders... READ MORE
The Retail SPDR (XRT) is getting into the holiday spirit with a triangle breakout on Monday. The ETF has been lagging the broader market over the last two months. Notice that the S&P 500 is trading near a 52-week high, but XRT remains below its mid October high.... READ MORE
Homebuilding stocks will be in the spotlight with two upcoming reports. Existing Home Sales will be reported on Tuesday (10 AM ET) and New Home Sales will be released on Wednesday at 10 AM ET). The homebuilding ETFs have been lagging the broader market over the last three months, but... READ MORE
"6 Weeks and 7 Gaps" sounds like the title for a movie with Harrison Ford. SPY moved back to the top of its trading range with a gap up on Monday. Needless to say, there is no change in the medium-term trend (up). With yesterday's close... READ MORE
The Santa Claus rally got off to a good start with the Semiconductors HOLDRS (SMH) leading the way higher. SMH broke flag resistance with a surge over the last two days. Also notice that semis are outperforming the broader market as the price relative moved higher in December. Click this... READ MORE
-Dollar surges and stocks hold their gains -Dollar Index hits first resistance zone -Gold hits trendline and retracement support -Oil nears resistance from broken support -Bonds tests very important support zone The relationship between the Dollar and stock is changing. From March to November, there was a clear inverse relationship... READ MORE
Despite a gap down and sharp decline on Thursday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) firmed on Friday and remains in the middle of its 6-week trading range. This means there is no change in the medium-term trend (up). SPY moved to a new reaction high in mid November... READ MORE
According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the January effect is the historical tendency of small-caps to outperform large-caps from mid December until April. Notice that this period coincides with the bullish six month cycle that extends from November to April. Historically, the strongest period of small-cap outperformance runs... READ MORE
The 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) broke above the August trendline with a surge in December. Because bonds moving opposite of yields, this corresponds to a sharp decline in US Treasury Bonds. The 10-Year Treasury Yield is now meeting resistance from the Sep-Oct-Nov highs and a breakout here would call for... READ MORE
-Bulk of evidence remains bullish -Small-caps outperforming large-caps -SPY and DIA hit retracement resistance -March-December uptrends holding -VIX hits support -Nasdaq AD Volume Line tests October high -NYSE AD Line hits new high -Net New Highs remain positive -Click here for the video page... READ MORE
The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for the stock market. In fact, I have even seen some strengthening in the bullish case over the past week. The Nasdaq AD Volume Line is challenging its Sep-Oct highs so I upgraded the AD Volume Lines from bearish to neutral. I also... READ MORE
The four major index ETFs remain in clear uptrends on the weekly charts, but all are near potential resistance levels. These charts are grouped in two pairs. First, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Dow Diamonds (DIA) show similar characteristics. Both have retraced around 62% of the... READ MORE
While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq bump resistance from their October-November highs, the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) are finding support near their October-November lows. These volatility indices are negatively correlated with the stock market. Stocks have been moving up... READ MORE
On the bullish side, Net New Highs remain positive for both the Nasdaq and the NYSE. There were fewer Net New Highs in November-December than in October. Even though participation in the advance narrowed in November-December, new 52-week highs are still exceeding new 52-week lows. The bulls still have the... READ MORE
SPY gapped down from trading range resistance and is currently near the mid point of the 5-week high-low range. This area could offer short-term support. The range low is 108.12, the range high is 112.38 and the mid point is 110.25. SPY closed at 110.18 on... READ MORE
All of the major stock indices were down Thursday afternoon, but General Electric (GE) was bucking the downdraft with a modest gain. The stock opened weak, but rallied above its prior high in the afternoon. Should current level holds, the stock would form a bullish engulfing near support. Click this... READ MORE
As one might expect, there is no change in the short-term or medium-term trend. SPY gapped up five days ago and formed five indecisive candlesticks. There has been little movement from open to close. Post-open price action has been choppy as the ETF trades near its Nov-Dec highs. Not only... READ MORE
The Commodity Groups Perfchart shows the GS Precious Metals Index ($GPX) and the GS Energy Index ($GJX) are both down over 6% so far this month. Of the five commodity groups, the GS Industrial Metals Index ($GYX) and GS Agriculture Index ($GKX) are holding up the best with small gains.... READ MORE
There is no change in the short-term or medium-term trends for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The Fed meeting ends today with an announcement expected at 2:15 PM ET. We can expect some volatile swings just before and after the announcement with volatility subsiding around 3PM. It... READ MORE