Homebuilding stocks will be in the spotlight with two upcoming reports. Existing Home Sales will be reported on Tuesday (10 AM ET) and New Home Sales will be released on Wednesday at 10 AM ET). The homebuilding ETFs have been lagging the broader market over the last three months, but... READ MORE
"6 Weeks and 7 Gaps" sounds like the title for a movie with Harrison Ford. SPY moved back to the top of its trading range with a gap up on Monday. Needless to say, there is no change in the medium-term trend (up). With yesterday's close... READ MORE
The Santa Claus rally got off to a good start with the Semiconductors HOLDRS (SMH) leading the way higher. SMH broke flag resistance with a surge over the last two days. Also notice that semis are outperforming the broader market as the price relative moved higher in December. Click this... READ MORE
-Dollar surges and stocks hold their gains -Dollar Index hits first resistance zone -Gold hits trendline and retracement support -Oil nears resistance from broken support -Bonds tests very important support zone The relationship between the Dollar and stock is changing. From March to November, there was a clear inverse relationship... READ MORE
Despite a gap down and sharp decline on Thursday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) firmed on Friday and remains in the middle of its 6-week trading range. This means there is no change in the medium-term trend (up). SPY moved to a new reaction high in mid November... READ MORE
According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, the January effect is the historical tendency of small-caps to outperform large-caps from mid December until April. Notice that this period coincides with the bullish six month cycle that extends from November to April. Historically, the strongest period of small-cap outperformance runs... READ MORE
The 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) broke above the August trendline with a surge in December. Because bonds moving opposite of yields, this corresponds to a sharp decline in US Treasury Bonds. The 10-Year Treasury Yield is now meeting resistance from the Sep-Oct-Nov highs and a breakout here would call for... READ MORE
-Bulk of evidence remains bullish -Small-caps outperforming large-caps -SPY and DIA hit retracement resistance -March-December uptrends holding -VIX hits support -Nasdaq AD Volume Line tests October high -NYSE AD Line hits new high -Net New Highs remain positive -Click here for the video page... READ MORE
The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for the stock market. In fact, I have even seen some strengthening in the bullish case over the past week. The Nasdaq AD Volume Line is challenging its Sep-Oct highs so I upgraded the AD Volume Lines from bearish to neutral. I also... READ MORE
The four major index ETFs remain in clear uptrends on the weekly charts, but all are near potential resistance levels. These charts are grouped in two pairs. First, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Dow Diamonds (DIA) show similar characteristics. Both have retraced around 62% of the... READ MORE
While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq bump resistance from their October-November highs, the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) are finding support near their October-November lows. These volatility indices are negatively correlated with the stock market. Stocks have been moving up... READ MORE
On the bullish side, Net New Highs remain positive for both the Nasdaq and the NYSE. There were fewer Net New Highs in November-December than in October. Even though participation in the advance narrowed in November-December, new 52-week highs are still exceeding new 52-week lows. The bulls still have the... READ MORE
SPY gapped down from trading range resistance and is currently near the mid point of the 5-week high-low range. This area could offer short-term support. The range low is 108.12, the range high is 112.38 and the mid point is 110.25. SPY closed at 110.18 on... READ MORE
All of the major stock indices were down Thursday afternoon, but General Electric (GE) was bucking the downdraft with a modest gain. The stock opened weak, but rallied above its prior high in the afternoon. Should current level holds, the stock would form a bullish engulfing near support. Click this... READ MORE
As one might expect, there is no change in the short-term or medium-term trend. SPY gapped up five days ago and formed five indecisive candlesticks. There has been little movement from open to close. Post-open price action has been choppy as the ETF trades near its Nov-Dec highs. Not only... READ MORE
The Commodity Groups Perfchart shows the GS Precious Metals Index ($GPX) and the GS Energy Index ($GJX) are both down over 6% so far this month. Of the five commodity groups, the GS Industrial Metals Index ($GYX) and GS Agriculture Index ($GKX) are holding up the best with small gains.... READ MORE
There is no change in the short-term or medium-term trends for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The Fed meeting ends today with an announcement expected at 2:15 PM ET. We can expect some volatile swings just before and after the announcement with volatility subsiding around 3PM. It... READ MORE
The Euro ETF (FXE) extended its decline this week and broke below its November low. FXE has been under intense selling pressure since the big plunge below 150 two weeks ago. In fact, selling pressure has been so intense that it looks like a medium-term downtrend has started. Click this... READ MORE
-Fed, seasonality and options -A new closing high for SPY -There go small-caps -Key sectors hit new highs -Finance sector continues to stall -Regional Bank SPDR hits Resistance -AAPL, AES, BWA, DELL, DFS, FWLT, JPM, MS, PDCO, PENN, STX, XRX -Click here for the video page... READ MORE
AAPL, AES, BWA, DELL, DFS, FWLT, JPM, MS, PDCO, PENN, STX, XRX... READ MORE
The Fed starts its two day meeting today with its policy statement scheduled for 2:15PM ET on Wednesday. There is usually some above average volatility just before and after the Fed announcement. With volume levels running relatively low and option expiration pending, this volatility could be exaggerated. Things usually... READ MORE
Even though post-open price action has been indecisive the last three days, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) managed to move higher and close at its highest closing level for 2009. This also means that SPY finally closed above the closing highs from the consolidation. Technically, we have a... READ MORE
I first wrote about the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the January effect on December 1st. To recap: the January effect is the historical tendency for small-caps to outperform large-caps from mid December to end January. IWM was firming in the 57-58 area on December 1st and I drew a... READ MORE
Three of the four offensive sectors moved to new reaction highs. The Industrials SPDR (XLI) led the charge on Monday with a 1.35% gain on the day. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), which is the most economically sensitive sector, hit 30 for the first time since September 2008. The... READ MORE
The Financials SPDR (XLF) is also one of the four offensive sectors, but it continues to lag and gets is own special entry. Despite news the Bank of America and Citigroup will repay their TARP money, XLF failed to advance with the rest of the market. XLF broke below the... READ MORE
Despite numerous bearish divergences in MACD since August, the Dow continues pushing to new highs. With today's close above 10500, the Dow hit another 52-week closing high today. While there will likely be a bearish divergence when the trend finally ends, it is clear that a strong uptrend... READ MORE
-A trend reversal for the greenback -Gold hits first key retracement -Oil gets an oversold bounce -Bonds plunge to key support zone - Intermarket chart page updated -Further commentary after the jump With its biggest eight-day surge since March, the US Dollar Index ($USD) broke resistance at 76 and RSI... READ MORE
There is no real change in the medium-term or short-term situation for SPY. First and foremost, the medium-term trend remains up as SPY recorded a new high for 2009 this month. Second, SPY is consolidating near the October high and holding its gains. Bears may point to lack of follow... READ MORE
Don't look now, but the NYSE AD Line hit a new 52-week high this week. The AD Line is a cumulative measure of Net Advances (advances less declines). It rises when there are more advances and falls when there are more declines. This week's new high... READ MORE
-Gap number 4 for SPY -Uninspiring two-day breadth -Bulk of evidence remains bullish -Bullish% Index divergences -NYSE AD Line hits new high -Net New Highs remain positive -Volatility Remains Low -A clear uptrend for DIA -TLT fails to hold break -A momentum breakout for the Dollar -Click here for the... READ MORE
With stocks trading flat over the last 4-5 weeks, not much has changed for the stock market. There are still more new 52-week highs than new 52-week lows. The NYSE AD Line recorded a new high for the year. Volatility remains subdued as the VIX and VXN test their October... READ MORE
The Bullish Percent Indices tell us the percentage of stocks in an index that have Point & Figure buy signals. There are many ways to interpret these numbers. Analysts can look at the absolute numbers. In general, readings above 50% favors the bulls, while reading below 50% favor the bears.... READ MORE
-Nasdaq AD Line: a serious bearish divergence -Nasdaq AD Volume Line: approaching Sep-Oct highs -Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator: up thrusts have been weak -Nasdaq Net New Highs: more new 52-week highs than new 52-week lows -NYSE AD Line: hit a new high this week -NYSE AD Volume Line: remains below Sep-Oct... READ MORE
The Nasdaq moved higher the last two days, but Net Advances were barely positive on Wednesday and negative on Thursday. Net Advancing Volume was barely positive on both days. Even though the gains in the Nasdaq were small, weak breadth reflected narrow participation that could undermine the advance. On the... READ MORE
For the fourth time in five weeks, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) held support with a gap up. Here's what we know. The medium-term trend is up, SPY is consolidating, support is holding and seasonality favors the bulls (especially from December 21st). Keep seasonality in mind,... READ MORE
After a gap and sharp decline in October, Citrix (CTXS) found support near its resistance breakout (~37). Bounces in early November and early December confirm support in the 37-38 area. With a triangle consolidation taking shape the last six weeks, the direction of the breakout holds the key to the... READ MORE
The major index ETFs remain in medium-term uptrends and short-term trading ranges. After a 3-4 day pullback, SPY firmed near the bottom of its four week trading range. The whole world is watching range support for a break that would be negative. Technically, a support break here would argue for... READ MORE
AOL Inc (AOL/WI) returned to the big board after a nine year hiatus. The stock was already trading "when issued" (WI) before today. AOL/WI started the day down, traded flat around 23 throughout the day and then surged with huge volume at the end of the... READ MORE
SPY moved back below 110 to fill the third gap, but this is not enough to affect the medium-term uptrend. After surging to a new reaction high in mid November, the ETF has been locked in a four point trading range since November 10th. This range extends from 108 to... READ MORE
For the second time in four weeks, Marriott (MAR) formed a bearish harami. The first harami marked a reaction high just below 28. This second harami formed around 27 for a possible lower high. Also notice that the trendline extending down from the October high marks resistance there. You can... READ MORE