Despite some warning signs, the bulk of the medium-term evidence remains bullish for stocks. Only three indicators are in bear mode. The AD Volume Lines broke support in late October, the McClellan Oscillators show deteriorating breadth, small-caps show relative weakness and the finance sector is relatively weak. The... READ MORE
Nothing has changed regarding my interpretation of the Elliott Wave counts for the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Both indices are in Wave 4 advances or a 5 Wave decline. The Wave 4 target zone for the S&P 500 is 1080-1150, while the target zone for... READ MORE
There are some potential warning signs in the breadth indicators. First, the Nasdaq AD Volume Line and the NYSE AD Volume Line both bounced, but remain well below their October highs. Lower highs could be forming. Second, October Net New Highs were above +200 for the Nasdaq and above +400... READ MORE
After a sharp advance, I noted how doji can sometimes foreshadow a reversal. Doji signal indecision as the bulls and bears battle it out for control. What happens after the doji produces the winner. With yesterday's decline, one could argue that the bears now have the upper hand.... READ MORE
With the surge over the last 1-2 weeks, the NY Composite and the Nasdaq are both trading back near their October highs. However, the Nasdaq AD Line remains well below its October high and shows some relative weakness. The NYSE AD Line is also below its October highs, but... READ MORE
There is no change in the SPY analysis. Stocks stalled over the last two days with SPY forming two doji. These signal indecision and can sometimes foreshadow a short-term reversal. At this point, I consider this indecision as a rest within the short-term and medium-term uptrends. Medium-... READ MORE
Cisco (CSCO) led the market higher with a big move above 24 last week. While the S&P 500 continued higher the last three days, Cisco stalled with a falling flag taking shape. Bullish flags slope down and form after a sharp advance. A break above 24 would signal... READ MORE
After a 5+ percent surge the prior five days, stocks took a breather on Tuesday as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) formed a doji on the day. Doji are small candlesticks that look like a plus sign (+). They show little change from open to close and a relatively... READ MORE
The difference between the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) and the 3-month Treasury Yield ($IRX) widened significantly since early October. Short-term rates fell ($IRX), while long-term rates rose ($TNX). As a result, the yield curve is the steepest it's been in months. Click this chart... READ MORE
-SPY challenges October highs -Defining the short-term uptrend for SPY -Impressive breadth for NYSE, not for Nasdaq -Low volume rally the last three days -XLF and WFC surge off support -XHB and KBH firm at key retracements -Click here for video page... READ MORE
The homebuilders have been relatively weak since mid September. While SPY is within striking distance of a new high for the year (2009), the Homebuilders SPDR (XHB) remains well below its September and October highs. Since mid September, the ETF retraced 50% of its prior advance with an ABC decline.... READ MORE
The Financials SPDR (XLF) confirmed last week's harami with a gap breakout. XLF hit support in late October and formed a big spinning top on November 2nd. With the short-term trend down, the stock formed a long red candlestick on Wednesday and two inside days on Thursday-... READ MORE
Breadth and volume are the first ports of call after a big move. Before going any further, I must emphasize that breadth and volume are indicators. I view breadth as an important indicator, more important than volume. However, as indicators, both breadth and volume are still secondary to price action,... READ MORE
With a gap and big advance on Monday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is already challenging resistance from its October highs. I would not consider this major resistance, but rather potential resistance because the medium-term and short-term trends are up. Support levels are important in uptrends... READ MORE
The 10 most active stocks on both the NYSE and Nasdaq are all up, and up big. In the middle of the stockcharts.com home page, you can follow the most actives throughout the day. You can even view a Perfchart to compare performance or see all 10 mini-charts... READ MORE
Highlights include: -US Dollar Index fails to hold gains as short-term rates decline -Gold surges to new highs and remains leader of the pack -Oil forms a bull flag and continues to benefit from Dollar weakness -A medium-term downtrend for bonds as $USB tests support -Click here for... READ MORE
As the headline notes, both the medium-term and short-term trends are up for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Yes, SPY held above its early October low and RSI held the 40-50 zone. With a big move on Thursday, SPY broke wedge resistance and RSI moved... READ MORE
It's the bulls by a nose. After the October decline, the bulk of the medium-term evidence was teetering on the edge of turning bearish. However, a sizable bounce this week brought the bulls back from the brink. As a result, the bulk of the evidence remains bullish.... READ MORE
The 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) is largely positively correlated with the S&P 500 - and also shows a propensity to lead the stock market. The chart below shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield peaking in July 2007 and stocks peaking in October 2007, three months later. Similarly, the... READ MORE
Broken resistance turns into support. This is a classis tenet of technical analysis. Nvidia (NVDA) broke resistance around 12-12.5 in July and returned to this breakout area in late October. Notice that I drew a zone. Support and resistance levels are rarely exact. With a gap and surge... READ MORE
Today's video includes: -A short-term uptrend for SPY -SPY holds medium-term support -Elliott wave for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq -Offensive sectors remain bullish -Long-term rates peak -Short-term rates trending lower -Market Summary Update on Saturday -Click here for the video page.... READ MORE
Wall Street is waiting for sparks from the employment report, but we may have already seen the sparks with yesterday's rally. Nevertheless, there is still a chance for a sizable move today (1-2%). Therefore, I am going to wait for today's close (data) before updating... READ MORE
On the market summary table, I watch offensive sectors closely for clues on the overall market. Offensive sectors should keep pace with the market (S&P 500) during a bull run. Relative weakness or a bearish divergence would show underlying weakness. Offensive sectors include consumer discretionary, technology, finance and... READ MORE
The 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) is largely positively correlated with the S&P 500 - and also shows a propensity to lead the stock market. Notice how the 10-Year Treasury Yield peaked in July 2007 and stocks peaked in October 2007 (3 months later). Similarly, the 10-Year... READ MORE
-Six of the eight indicators are bearish -Nasdaq breadth is bearish -NYSE breadth is mixed -Click here for the breadth charts page... READ MORE
The S&P 500 remains in a Wave 4 advance of a 5 Wave decline. I expect (think) Wave 4 will end in the 50-62% retracement zone and there are already signs of a reversal. Momentum is turning as the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) moved below its signal... READ MORE
With a bounce over the last four days, MACD (5,35,5) crossed above its signal line on Thursday's close. Red dotted lines mark prior signals when MACD formed a bearish divergence AND crossed below its signal line. The last such signal occurred on October 21st. Green dotted... READ MORE
On the Stockcharts.com scan page for Wednesday evening, there were 20 CCI sell signals among NYSE stocks. A CCI sell signal occurs with a plunge below -100. Conversely, a CCI buy signal triggers with a surge above +100. CCI for Jones Apparel (JNY) surged above +100 on July 23rd... READ MORE
While I don't like holding myself hostage to fundamental events, we need to be prepared for volatility when market-moving events hit the fan. Sometimes we can predict the news, such as the Fed policy statement remaining unchanged. Most of the time we cannot predict the news, such... READ MORE
With help from component Merck, the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) bounced off support around 28. The ETF established support here with reaction lows in early September, early October and now early November. It is safe to say that the trend is clearly up as long as this support level holds. Click... READ MORE
Objectively speaking, the medium-term uptrend in SPY remains in place. The ETF forged a higher high in October and has yet to break the early October low. After a sharp decline from 110 to 104, SPY firmed with a spinning top on Monday and a small white candlestick on... READ MORE
After a sharp decline the prior two weeks, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) turned indecisive with a spinning top on Monday. This candlestick reflects a wide high-low range during the day, but little change from open to close. QQQQ surged above 41.5 in early trading, plunged below 40.... READ MORE
-A volatile week ahead -Spinning tops and indecision -QQQQ stalls at support -DIA and SPY stall above support -SPY remains in short-term downtrend -KRE breaks support and XLF tests support -XLB and XLI hit double top support -BBY forms bullish falling wedge -Bear flags/pennants for JWM, LTD, RL... READ MORE
-KRE breaks support and XLF tests support -XLB and XLI hit double top support -BBY forms bullish falling wedge -Bear flags/pennants for JWM, LTD, RL and SBUX **************************************************************** Regional Bank ETF Breakdown The Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) was showing some relative strength by holding above support last week. No more.... READ MORE
SPY formed a spinning top to signal indecision on Monday. Perhaps more importantly, the ETF surged above 105 in early trading and failed to hold these gains. The inability to hold early gains shows weakness. Buyers were not strong enough to hold gains. Sellers were strong enough to push prices... READ MORE
We can expect above average volatility this week. First, earnings season remains in full swing. Second, the Fed issues its policy statement on Wednesday at 2:15 PM ET. Third, the employment report will be released on Friday at 8:30 AM ET. In addition to these biggies, we have... READ MORE
-DIA forms spinning top and bull flag. -QQQQ forms spinning top at support. -IWM forms spinning top below support break. On the daily charts, the major index ETFs finished with spinning top candlesticks on Monday. These show indecision that could foreshadow a short-term bounce. Spinning tops form when the... READ MORE
The 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) bounced off support last week, but fell today as the ISM Manufacturing Survey surged to 55.7. Readings above 50 favor economic expansion. Bonds fell and the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) rose with this positive economic news. Signs of strength in the economy... READ MORE
Highlights Include: -Bonds and the Dollar surge as stocks fall -Dollar forms small flag as RSI hits resistance -Triangle support break for gold holds -Bonds bounce off key support -Click here for intermarket chart page... READ MORE
With talk and release of the Pre, Palm was the talk of the town earlier this year. The stock tripled from its March low to its September high. October has been a rough month as PALM fell below 12 on Friday. While the chart shows a support break and close... READ MORE