Ford (F) beat earnings estimates this morning as the stock tests an important support area around 6.5-7. After breaking resistance with a big surge in July, the stock returned to broken resistance in September-October. Broken resistance turned into support with three bounces in the 6.5-7... READ MORE
After a pretty good bounce on Thursday, stocks gave it all back with an even bigger decline on Friday. This kind of price action is not normal for a bull market or medium-term uptrend. First, Thursday's bounce only lasted one day. Second, the next day's... READ MORE
The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is in for a big test as broken resistance turns into support. GDX broke resistance around 41-42 with a big surge in September. This level turned into support, and held, in early October. After a sharp decline the last two weeks, GDX is once... READ MORE
-Breadth chart page updated -Short-Term SPY analysis in separate post below -Medium-term evidence remains bullish, but.... -Wave 4 stalls for the S&P 500 -Nasdaq hits wave 4 resistance -IWM breaks October low -SPY holds above October low -OBV shows increase in downside volume -Nasdaq AD Line... READ MORE
The breadth chart page has been updated. There have been some changes with the sharp decline over the last two weeks. Highlights include: -The Nasdaq AD Line broke below its early October low. -Daily Net New Highs for the Nasdaq turned negative. -The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator plunged to its lowest... READ MORE
After a 5% decline from the October high, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) surged back above 106 on Thursday. Is this just a dead-cat bounce or should we expect more strength? Technically, the medium-term trend is still up. As such, a number of mean-reversion strategies... READ MORE
Even if you do not trade Fidelity Funds, the Fidelity Funds Carpet can be useful for providing an overview of market action. All stock index funds, domestic equity funds and international funds are down over the last 10 days (lots of red). The only green (gains) can be found in... READ MORE
I was quite impressed with the ability of the Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) to firm over the last few days. The S&P 500 is down around 4.5% in four days and KRE is down only 2.3%. The first chart shows KRE and the S&P... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is now down over 5% in the last seven days. With the medium-term trend still technically up and the ETF oversold, traders should be on guard for a bounce or consolidation. Bouncing usually begin with indecision. The orange highlights show indecisive candlesticks... READ MORE
The Major US Markets Perfchart shows the Russell 2000 ($RUT) leading the way lower over the last two weeks. Notice that the Russell 2000 has not even been positive (above 0%) over the last 10 days. In contrast, the other major indices were in positive territory at some point over... READ MORE
Should the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) continue weak and close lower again today, it would mark the sixth lower close in the last eight days. Late September-early October was the last such occasion. With the ETF down around 4% from its highs, it is already getting short-... READ MORE
Two big bearish engulfing patterns solidify resistance around 28-28.5 for Juniper Networks (JNPR). JNPR first established resistance at 28 with a doji. A few weeks later, the stock opened strong and closed weak to form its first high-volume bearish engulfing. After a pullback and second attempt at... READ MORE
-Intermarket chart page updated (here) -Short-Term SPY analysis in separate post below -Small-caps show relative weakness -Regional Banks hold support -Healthcare Providers ETF breaks support -Cigna shows relative weakness -Semiconductors HOLDRS pullback after higher high -Intel turns indecisive at key retracement -Texas Instruments forms triangle consolidation -Click here... READ MORE
After a big surge in July, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has been zigzagging higher since early August. Consider the zigs as advances and the zags as declines. Each advance (zag) forges a higher high, while each decline (zig) reverses above its prior low. This series of higher... READ MORE
Intermarket chart highlights include: -Bonds plunge as Dollar bounces -Dollar breaks short-term resistance as RSI approaches 50 -Gold breaks pennant/triangle support -Oil declines as Dollar bounces -Bonds test important support zone Click here for the intermarket chart page.... READ MORE
The image below shows the email alert for, Tuesday, October 27th. Each email contains the titles and the opening sentences for the day's blog entries. Alerts are sent out once per day around 12PM ET. You can sign up for alerts with the "SUBSCRIBE BY EMAIL"... READ MORE
After a decline the last eight days, Intel (INTC) is showing signs of firmness near a support zone. First, notice that the decline retraced 62% of the prior advance. Second, notice that broken resistance turns into support. Third, notice that MACD has a bullish divergence working. A break above 20.... READ MORE
This is just a quick update on the short-term trend for SPY and last week's MACD signal. On the daily chart, MACD(5,35,5) formed a bearish divergence and moved below its signal line last Wednesday for a bearish signal. MACD remains below its signal line,... READ MORE
The Bollinger Bands are contracting as Paychex (PAYX) trades within a narrow range this month. First, you can see the bands narrowing significantly this week (blue arrows). Second, the Bollinger Band Width indicator is trading at its lowest level in over four months. A volatility expansion often follows a volatility... READ MORE
-Bulk of the evidence remains bullish -Weak upside breadth on Monday and Thursday -SPY and IWM reverse short-term uptrends -A MACD(5,35,5) signal for SPY -SPY remains in Wave 4 target zone -NYSE AD Volume Line does not confirm -Nasdaq AD Line fails to exceed September high... READ MORE
Looking across the P&F scan page on Thursday, I came across Lockheed Martin (LMT) with a quadruple bottom breakdown. Actually, this is a quintuple bottom break down. After four bounces off support, LMT broke through on the fifth try. Based on traditional P&F targeting, the downside... READ MORE
Even though the Materials SPDR (XLB) is challenging resistance from the September highs, Chaikin Money Flow remains in negative territory. In fact, CMF has been negative throughout October. This shows underlying weakness in the current advance. With XLB stalling near its September highs the last five days, a break below... READ MORE
-Stocks and the Dollar remain inversely correlated. -Short-term interest rates are edging higher and this could lift the Dollar. -Gold remains at high levels as the breakouts hold. -Broken resistance turns into support for oil. -Bonds bounced off a key support zone. -Click here to view the charts.... READ MORE
A number of chart features are coming together to mark support around 15 for KB Home (KBH). First, the decline retraced 62% of the prior advance. Second, broken resistance turns into support. Third, the stock firmed the last three weeks. The only remaining wild card is the direction of the... READ MORE
-Bulk of the evidence remains bullish -IWM leads the pack -SPY extends short-term uptrend -Past MACD divergences in SPY -MACD diverges for QQQQ -Autozone (AZO) firms at support -Oracle (ORCL) recovers after sharp decline -Qualcom (QCOM) bounces after hammer -Comcast (CMCSA) firms after sharp decline -Nvdia (NVDA) retraces 50%... READ MORE
Much has been make about Dow 10,000 this week, but technicians may want to focus about 500 points higher instead. The chart below shows Volume-by-Price for the Dow Industrials. Notice that the longest bar is around 10500-11000. This represents a potential resistance zone in the coming... READ MORE
While there has been a negative correlation between the Dollar and stocks this year, there has been a positive correlation between the Dollar and short-term interest rates. The chart below shows the US Dollar Index ($USD) with the 1-Year Treasury Yield ($UST1Y). Both rose in January-February and... READ MORE
Point&Figure charts are great for showing support and resistance. Best Buy (BBY) hit a ceiling at 42 over the last five months. A breakout above resistance (another "X") would trigger a bullish signal and target further strength towards the next resistance level at 48. Click this... READ MORE
-Bulk of the evidence remains bullish -SPY surges to new highs in October -S&P 500 enters retracement zone on weekly chart -NYSE AD Line hits new high -VIX moves to new low -MACD stays bullish despite divergences -Russell 2000 and S&P 100 exceed September highs -Bullish... READ MORE
With the Dow hitting 10,000 on Wednesday, it is a good time to check the intermarket PerfChart for 2009. West Texas Intermediate ($WTIC) is by far the biggest winner this year with a gain around 55%. Gold-Continuous Futures ($GOLD) is up around 24% and the Dow is up... READ MORE
The top of the predefined scan page says it all. New 52-week highs are outpacing new 52-week lows, by a wide margin. In fact, new 52-week lows are in the single digits for all four exchanges shown on the table. No sign of weakness here. Click this... READ MORE
The Retail HOLDRS (RTH) continues its up trend with another 52-week high on Tuesday. The chart below shows prices over the last 12 months and Tuesday's close in the highest. In the indicator window, notice that RTH is keeping pace with the S&P 500 (red... READ MORE
-SPY forms doji near September highs -Short-term uptrend remains in place for SPY -Treasury yields surge over the last two days -Dollar ETF forms doji near September lows -Homebuilders SPDR bounces off support -Regional Bank SPDR breaks channel resistance -Transport iShares hits retracement zone -REIT iShares edges above channel... READ MORE
The intermarket chart below shows bonds (blue line) taking a hit last week. The 30-year Treasury Bond ($USB) fell back toward support from its September lows. Weakness in bonds is understandable with West Texas Intermediate ($WTIC) challenging its summer highs. Click here for John Murphy's Intermarket Perfchart.... READ MORE
The Energy SPDR (XLE) and the Materials SPDR (XLB) started October with a bang. Over the last five days, XLE is up over 8% and XLB is up over 6%. The Financials SPDR (XLF) comes in a close second with a 5.74% gain. All three easily outperformed the S&... READ MORE
-Medium-term evidence remains bullishfor stocks -SPY turns indecisive after sharp advance -Using CCI for short-term signals in SPY -Another bottom picking opp in the Dollar -Oil advances to channel resistance -Gold becomes overbought as GLD assets surge -Bonds feel the heat of rising commodity prices -Click here for... READ MORE
SPY is at it again with its second gap this week. The ETF gapped higher on Tuesday and held the gap zone. After a triangle consolidation, SPY gapped above 106 this morning to create another gap zone that marks first support. Click this image for more details.... READ MORE
The chart below shows the Energy SPDR (XLE) with a 5% Zigzag. This indicator filters out smaller fluctuations by only identifying moves of at least 5%. XLE is currently zigzagging up with higher highs and higher lows. A break below the October low would reverse this uptrend. Click this image... READ MORE
With short-term rates near zero and long-term rates around 4%, the yield curve is clearly positive. This sharply positive slope reflects loose monetary policy at the Fed that is designed to stimulate the economy. For reference, the yield curve was flat in October 2007 as short-term rates... READ MORE
-Attempting a short-term low -Setting short-term support for SPY -Low Volume the last two Mondays -Finance Sector Leads -Regional Banks Lag -Gold Miners ETF bounces off support -AMAT forms hammer at support -BG firms near key retracement -CPWR forms bullish engulfing at support -INTU maintains bullish bias -NEM... READ MORE