* The Strange Correlation between Gold and Silver. * Gold Looks Poised to Continue Trend. * Silver ETF Breaks Wedge Line. * Copper the Chopper Bounces. Correlation between Gold and Silver... Gold and silver have not been on the same page lately, but there is still a strong positive correlation between the two. The... READ MORE
* SPY Continues to Meander. * Sector Performance Remains Mixed. * Seven Industry Group ETFs Stand Out. * Regional Bank SPDR Forms Continuation Pattern. * QQQ, Top Stocks and the 50-day SMAs. * Leading Stocks with Bullish Charts. SPY Continues to Meander The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) got a nice oversold bounce the last... READ MORE
Electronic Arts (EA) is one of the leading stocks in a strong video game industry group. Note that Activision (ATVI), one of its main competitors, hit a 52-week high in late January and is challenging this high here in early March. Take-Two (TTWO) is the weakest of the big three,... READ MORE
The principle of confirmation is important to the application of Dow Theory. This principle asserts that the Averages, Dow Industrials and Dow Transports, should confirm each other when making new highs. In other words, both should make new highs to affirm the broad market trend. Failure by one results in... READ MORE
* Pullbacks versus Corrections versus Bull Markets. * Objective Uptrend and Subjective Correction. * VIX Moves Back above 20. * Gold Firms at Support Zone. * Legendary Trader Sounds the Alarm. * Trend Followers Know What they Don't Know. * CNBC Interview with Tobias Levkovich. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. Pullbacks, Corrections... READ MORE
* XLK is Near Top of 2018 Range. * XLE is Near Bottom of 2018 Range. * Year-to-date Ranks for Equal-Weight Sectors. * And Then There was One. * EW Consumer Discretionary ETF Underperforms. * Scanning the Major Indexes. * Majority of Stocks are Struggling. * Non-Confirmation Among the Offensive Sectors. XLK is Near Top of 2018 Range.... READ MORE
The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) is one of the worst performing sectors year-to-date with a loss greater than 8 percent. The sector is also the second weakest in February because it failed to hold its bounce over the last two weeks. The chart shows XLP with its biggest component (P&... READ MORE
* SPY Leads with First Breakout. * Small Caps and Mid Caps Still Lagging. * Six Sectors and Six Upswings. * Techs and Materials Lead New High List. * The 800-pound Sector in the Market. * Charting the Fab Five (AAPL, GOOGL, FB, AMZN, MSFT). * Retail and Housing Lag. SPY Leads with First Breakout... For the... READ MORE
Humana (HUM) is part of the HealthCare Providers ETF (IHF) and this group led the market from mid-October to late January with a 20+ percent surge to new highs. The group pulled back in February, but the long-term trend is up and this bodes well for stocks in the group.... READ MORE
* Bulls, Bears and Fishermen. * Long-term Picture Still Bullish. * Rising SMAs for the S&P 500. * A Short-term Bullish Pattern for SPY. * Small-caps Show some Short-term RS. * Lots of Little Consolidations. * Oil Extends Bounce off Support. * Energy Stocks are Not Impressed. * Gold Miners Not Impressed Either. * Notes from the Art&... READ MORE
* Revisiting Two Momentum Systems from 2017. * A Simple Momentum Rotation System. * Live by the Sword, Die by the Sword. * A Trend-Momentum System with a Profit Target. * Successful and Unsuccessful Trades. * In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Performance. * Drawdowns are Unavoidable. * Conclusions and Takeaways. * Consulting, Software and Data. Revisiting Two Momentum Systems I introduced... READ MORE
Even though I am currently in the "correction" camp for the broader market, there are clearly pockets of strength in some key groups. The Software iShares (IGV), Cyber Security ETF (HACK), Internet ETF (FDN) and Networking iShares (IGN) are leading the technology rebound and all are close to... READ MORE
* Go Long a Volatile Market? * Setting Correction Targets for S&P 500. * Leaders and Laggards During the Rebound. * Scanning for Percent from High. * Semis, Housing and Transports Lag. "Never short a dull market" is an old Wall Street saying. Even though we cannot build a strategy on... READ MORE
Stocks rebounded this week as the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index ($SPXEW) recovered most of the losses from the previous week. On a closing basis, the index fell around 10% in nine days and then recovered around half of this loss with a 5.4% gain the last six... READ MORE
* Rubber Band Rebound. * A Bearish Breadth Thrust. * High-Low Percent Indicators Weaken. * %Above Indicators Remain Bullish. * Weight of the Evidence. * SPX Clears 50-day as VIX Falls. * Small-caps Take the Internal Lead. * Scan Code for Top ROC. * Tech-Related Industry Groups Lead. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. Rubber Band Rebound... READ MORE
* Indicators Improve as S&P 500 Follows Through. * A Retest of the February Low? * Monitoring the Pennant Breakout. * Oil Bounces off Breakout Zone. * Use Continuous Contract Long-Term. * Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR Firms. * Haliburton Returns to Breakout Zone. Indicators Improve as S&P 500 Follows Through... READ MORE
There is another disconnect working between the VIX and SPY. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) opened weak with a dip below 265, but the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) also declined. This is an interesting dynamic because the VIX usually moves opposite of SPY. I am... READ MORE
As with Charles Dow, I work under the assumption that the trend is in force until proven otherwise. And, in accordance with Dow Theory, neither the length nor the duration can be forecast. We can, however, identify trend changes and act accordingly. The stock market is in a delicate spot... READ MORE
The CME Group (CME), which has a number of volatility-based futures products, runs a variety of futures and options exchanges including the CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX. While the S&P 500 fell 8.82% over the last two weeks, CME Group actually gained ground and advanced 1.09%... READ MORE
* The Main Driver for Stocks. * Rate-of-Change Reaches an Extreme. * Two Relatively Clean Bottoms. * A Messy Bottom in 2011. * Watching the 200-day First. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. The Main Driver for Stock Prices Today's report will focus on the S&P 500 because the... READ MORE
* Nowhere to Hide. * Majority of Stocks Remain Weak. * VIX Remains at Lofty Levels. * Oil Starts to Correct. * XES Extends Correction and Breaks Wedge Line. * XLE Triggers Bearish Breadth Signals. * Charting Breadth Indicators. February marked a sudden and dramatic shift in the financial markets. As the PerfChart below shows, stocks, oil,... READ MORE
Intel (INTC) was hit hard the first three days of February, but the stock managed to hold support with a high volume reversal over the last three days. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up because Intel recorded a 52-week high in late January and the 50-day EMA is... READ MORE
* First Things First (Correction or More?). * Another Perfect Storm. * Yield Curve Turns Up. * Oversold Setup in Breadth Indicators. * A Bullish Setup for VIX. * Playing the Guessing Game. * Past Corrections Study. First Things First It is still a bull market. The 50-day EMA for the S&P 500 remains above... READ MORE
The stock market was hit with hard selling pressure last week, but Palo Alto Networks (PANW) held up rather well and move below its breakout zone. Stocks that hold up best during a broad market correction are often the ones that lead on the rebound. The chart shows PANW in... READ MORE
Short-term Treasury yields have been moving sharply higher since September with the 5-yr and 2-yr yields hitting multi-year highs over the last few months. Yields at the long end of the curve are lagging, but appear to be catching up finally as the 10-yr yield broke out in January and... READ MORE
* Turn of the Month Turns Negative. * SPY Holds the Gap. * Is the VIX Returning to Normal?. * S&P 500 Correction Targets. * Watching for Oversold Breadth. * IBB Corrects from New High. * Gold Maintains Upswing as Dollar Falls. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. * Videos with Interesting Takes. Turn... READ MORE
* Filter Group 1: General Symbol Conditions. * Scanning Specific Indexes. * Filter Group 2: Broad Technical Conditions. * Cutting to the Chase with Indexes. * Eliminating a Sector or Industry Group. * Filter Group 3: Technical Signals. * Wendy's and Micron Make the Cut. * Conclusions and Complete Scan Code. Chartists use scans to narrow... READ MORE
The chart for CBS Corp (CBS) is already bad news and the news could get even worse. First and foremost, the long-term trend is clearly down as the stock hit a 52-week low in early November and remains below the falling 200-day SMA. The stock also broke below the May-June... READ MORE
* VIX Disconnnet Signals Caution. * Charting Past Occurrences. * Correction Targets for the S&P 500. * More Industry Groups Join Correction. * 3 Semiconductor Stocks to Watch. VIX Disconnet Signals Caution The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) usually moves opposite the S&P 500, but this is not the... READ MORE
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) broke out of a long consolidation and looks poised to hit new highs soon. The long-term trend is up as the stock surged to new highs with a 50+ percent advance from November 2016 to August 2017. Also note that the PPO(50,200,0) is... READ MORE
* New Highs in Major index ETFs (again). * SPY: As Boring as Boring Gets. * Materials SPDR Breaks Out of Bullish Pennant. * REIT SPDR Springs a Bear Trap. * XLI Forms Bullish Pennant. * Some Groups are Already Correcting. * ITB, IYT and SOXX Move into Corrective Mode. * TLT Holds Neckline Support (for now). * Oil... READ MORE
* Looking for Future 52-week Highs. * 3 Stocks with Corrections after 52-week Highs. * Goldman Sachs Surges to a New High. * Two Materials Stocks with Recent Upturns. Looking for Future 52-week Highs Stocks in long-term uptrends are more likely to hit 52-week highs than stocks in downtrends. Furthermore, stocks that hit 52-week... READ MORE
The 10-year Treasury Yield peaked near 16% in 1982 and fell as a secular bear market took hold for over 30 years. After stabilizing the last few years, the 10-year Yield traced out a large bullish reversal pattern and confirmation would end the secular bear market. Note that the 10-yr... READ MORE
* SPY Extends Extraordinary Run. * Biotech ETFs Lead Healthcare Sector. * Finance-Related ETFs Extend Breakouts. * Copper ETN Pulls Back within Trend. * Is Telecom Turning the Corner? SPY Extends Extraordinary Run The major index ETFs remain in strong uptrends, both short-term and long-term. The S&P 500 SPDR and Dow SPDR are... READ MORE
The chart for H&R Block (HRB) shows two corrective patterns, one confirmed and one working. First, HRB retraced around 61.8% of the February-August advance and formed A big wedge. The wedge pattern and the retracement amount are typical for corrections after a sharp advance. HRB broke out... READ MORE
2018 is off to a great start with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) up 5% in just 13 trading days. The rally is quite broad with six of the nine equal-weight sectors up 5% or more. I am showing the equal-weight sectors first because they reflect performance for... READ MORE
* Pow, Straight to the Moon! * Group Leaders and Laggards. * Strategy Going Forward. * Fresh Highs for SPY and QQQ. * A Tough Week for Small-Caps. * Eight of Ten Sector SPDRs Hit New Highs. * XLU and IYR Drop out of Oversold Watch. * Pullbacks Zones to Watch (XME,SLX,COPX,XES, AMJ). * Money Continues... READ MORE
* Setting the Market Regime and Ground Rules. * Sample Signals for SPY and IJR. * Backtest Results. * I Know What You are Thinking. * Conclusions. Mean-reversion trading systems are designed to buy the dip during bull markets. The assumption is that the trend is the major force at work and prices will revert... READ MORE
PayChex (PAYX), which has nothing to do with Chex cereal, ended its correction with a three-day surge and wedge breakout. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up as the stock broke out in early October and hit a 52-week high in December. The stock was quite extended after 30%... READ MORE
* Raff Regression Channels and Steep Uptrends. * Chandelier Exit Holds Entire Uptrend. * SPY Nears Flag Target. * Buy the Dip in Bull Markets. Raff Regression Channels and Steep Uptrends There is no such thing as the perfect indicator or the perfect settings, but I would like to show a method to quantify... READ MORE