* Go Long a Volatile Market? * Setting Correction Targets for S&P 500. * Leaders and Laggards During the Rebound. * Scanning for Percent from High. * Semis, Housing and Transports Lag. "Never short a dull market" is an old Wall Street saying. Even though we cannot build a strategy on... READ MORE
Stocks rebounded this week as the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index ($SPXEW) recovered most of the losses from the previous week. On a closing basis, the index fell around 10% in nine days and then recovered around half of this loss with a 5.4% gain the last six... READ MORE
* Rubber Band Rebound. * A Bearish Breadth Thrust. * High-Low Percent Indicators Weaken. * %Above Indicators Remain Bullish. * Weight of the Evidence. * SPX Clears 50-day as VIX Falls. * Small-caps Take the Internal Lead. * Scan Code for Top ROC. * Tech-Related Industry Groups Lead. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. Rubber Band Rebound... READ MORE
* Indicators Improve as S&P 500 Follows Through. * A Retest of the February Low? * Monitoring the Pennant Breakout. * Oil Bounces off Breakout Zone. * Use Continuous Contract Long-Term. * Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR Firms. * Haliburton Returns to Breakout Zone. Indicators Improve as S&P 500 Follows Through... READ MORE
There is another disconnect working between the VIX and SPY. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) opened weak with a dip below 265, but the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) also declined. This is an interesting dynamic because the VIX usually moves opposite of SPY. I am... READ MORE
As with Charles Dow, I work under the assumption that the trend is in force until proven otherwise. And, in accordance with Dow Theory, neither the length nor the duration can be forecast. We can, however, identify trend changes and act accordingly. The stock market is in a delicate spot... READ MORE
The CME Group (CME), which has a number of volatility-based futures products, runs a variety of futures and options exchanges including the CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX. While the S&P 500 fell 8.82% over the last two weeks, CME Group actually gained ground and advanced 1.09%... READ MORE
* The Main Driver for Stocks. * Rate-of-Change Reaches an Extreme. * Two Relatively Clean Bottoms. * A Messy Bottom in 2011. * Watching the 200-day First. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. The Main Driver for Stock Prices Today's report will focus on the S&P 500 because the... READ MORE
* Nowhere to Hide. * Majority of Stocks Remain Weak. * VIX Remains at Lofty Levels. * Oil Starts to Correct. * XES Extends Correction and Breaks Wedge Line. * XLE Triggers Bearish Breadth Signals. * Charting Breadth Indicators. February marked a sudden and dramatic shift in the financial markets. As the PerfChart below shows, stocks, oil,... READ MORE
Intel (INTC) was hit hard the first three days of February, but the stock managed to hold support with a high volume reversal over the last three days. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up because Intel recorded a 52-week high in late January and the 50-day EMA is... READ MORE
* First Things First (Correction or More?). * Another Perfect Storm. * Yield Curve Turns Up. * Oversold Setup in Breadth Indicators. * A Bullish Setup for VIX. * Playing the Guessing Game. * Past Corrections Study. First Things First It is still a bull market. The 50-day EMA for the S&P 500 remains above... READ MORE
The stock market was hit with hard selling pressure last week, but Palo Alto Networks (PANW) held up rather well and move below its breakout zone. Stocks that hold up best during a broad market correction are often the ones that lead on the rebound. The chart shows PANW in... READ MORE
Short-term Treasury yields have been moving sharply higher since September with the 5-yr and 2-yr yields hitting multi-year highs over the last few months. Yields at the long end of the curve are lagging, but appear to be catching up finally as the 10-yr yield broke out in January and... READ MORE
* Turn of the Month Turns Negative. * SPY Holds the Gap. * Is the VIX Returning to Normal?. * S&P 500 Correction Targets. * Watching for Oversold Breadth. * IBB Corrects from New High. * Gold Maintains Upswing as Dollar Falls. * Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. * Videos with Interesting Takes. Turn... READ MORE
* Filter Group 1: General Symbol Conditions. * Scanning Specific Indexes. * Filter Group 2: Broad Technical Conditions. * Cutting to the Chase with Indexes. * Eliminating a Sector or Industry Group. * Filter Group 3: Technical Signals. * Wendy's and Micron Make the Cut. * Conclusions and Complete Scan Code. Chartists use scans to narrow... READ MORE
The chart for CBS Corp (CBS) is already bad news and the news could get even worse. First and foremost, the long-term trend is clearly down as the stock hit a 52-week low in early November and remains below the falling 200-day SMA. The stock also broke below the May-June... READ MORE
* VIX Disconnnet Signals Caution. * Charting Past Occurrences. * Correction Targets for the S&P 500. * More Industry Groups Join Correction. * 3 Semiconductor Stocks to Watch. VIX Disconnet Signals Caution The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) usually moves opposite the S&P 500, but this is not the... READ MORE
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) broke out of a long consolidation and looks poised to hit new highs soon. The long-term trend is up as the stock surged to new highs with a 50+ percent advance from November 2016 to August 2017. Also note that the PPO(50,200,0) is... READ MORE
* New Highs in Major index ETFs (again). * SPY: As Boring as Boring Gets. * Materials SPDR Breaks Out of Bullish Pennant. * REIT SPDR Springs a Bear Trap. * XLI Forms Bullish Pennant. * Some Groups are Already Correcting. * ITB, IYT and SOXX Move into Corrective Mode. * TLT Holds Neckline Support (for now). * Oil... READ MORE
* Looking for Future 52-week Highs. * 3 Stocks with Corrections after 52-week Highs. * Goldman Sachs Surges to a New High. * Two Materials Stocks with Recent Upturns. Looking for Future 52-week Highs Stocks in long-term uptrends are more likely to hit 52-week highs than stocks in downtrends. Furthermore, stocks that hit 52-week... READ MORE
The 10-year Treasury Yield peaked near 16% in 1982 and fell as a secular bear market took hold for over 30 years. After stabilizing the last few years, the 10-year Yield traced out a large bullish reversal pattern and confirmation would end the secular bear market. Note that the 10-yr... READ MORE
* SPY Extends Extraordinary Run. * Biotech ETFs Lead Healthcare Sector. * Finance-Related ETFs Extend Breakouts. * Copper ETN Pulls Back within Trend. * Is Telecom Turning the Corner? SPY Extends Extraordinary Run The major index ETFs remain in strong uptrends, both short-term and long-term. The S&P 500 SPDR and Dow SPDR are... READ MORE
The chart for H&R Block (HRB) shows two corrective patterns, one confirmed and one working. First, HRB retraced around 61.8% of the February-August advance and formed A big wedge. The wedge pattern and the retracement amount are typical for corrections after a sharp advance. HRB broke out... READ MORE
2018 is off to a great start with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) up 5% in just 13 trading days. The rally is quite broad with six of the nine equal-weight sectors up 5% or more. I am showing the equal-weight sectors first because they reflect performance for... READ MORE
* Pow, Straight to the Moon! * Group Leaders and Laggards. * Strategy Going Forward. * Fresh Highs for SPY and QQQ. * A Tough Week for Small-Caps. * Eight of Ten Sector SPDRs Hit New Highs. * XLU and IYR Drop out of Oversold Watch. * Pullbacks Zones to Watch (XME,SLX,COPX,XES, AMJ). * Money Continues... READ MORE
* Setting the Market Regime and Ground Rules. * Sample Signals for SPY and IJR. * Backtest Results. * I Know What You are Thinking. * Conclusions. Mean-reversion trading systems are designed to buy the dip during bull markets. The assumption is that the trend is the major force at work and prices will revert... READ MORE
PayChex (PAYX), which has nothing to do with Chex cereal, ended its correction with a three-day surge and wedge breakout. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up as the stock broke out in early October and hit a 52-week high in December. The stock was quite extended after 30%... READ MORE
* Raff Regression Channels and Steep Uptrends. * Chandelier Exit Holds Entire Uptrend. * SPY Nears Flag Target. * Buy the Dip in Bull Markets. Raff Regression Channels and Steep Uptrends There is no such thing as the perfect indicator or the perfect settings, but I would like to show a method to quantify... READ MORE
* SPY and QQQ Lead the 2018 Surge. * Moving from Corrective Mode to Trend Mode. * Déjà vu for HRB and ACH. * Playing the Short Correction (NEWM, LYV, YUM). * AXL Breaks Out of Big Correction. * LPX Makes Good on Third Bounce. * AGCO Forms Classic Bullish Continuation Pattern. SPY and QQQ Lead the... READ MORE
* A Change in Market Regime. * Be Careful with the Price Relative. * Small-caps are Just Getting Started. * Animal Spirits Find IJR. * SPY "Overbought" Period Hits Day 70. * Seven of Ten Sector SPDRs Hit New Highs. * Two Small-cap Sectors to Watch. * 7-10 YR T-Bond ETF Extends Breakdown. * Gold Stalls after... READ MORE
* Cyber Security ETF Surges to New High. * Two Cyber Security Stocks to Watch. * Finisar Bounces off Key Retracement. * Win Some and Lose Some (AYI, BLL). Cyber Security ETF Surges to New High The Cyber Security ETF (HACK) lagged the broader market from June to mid November, but caught fire and... READ MORE
MGM Resorts (MGM) is gearing up for a resistance challenge and the speculator in me expects a breakout. First and foremost, MGM is in a long-term uptrend with the September 7th spike marking a 52-week high. The 50-day EMA is also above the 200-day EMA and price is well above... READ MORE
* Small-cap ETF Triggers a Signal. * Regional Bank SPDR Gaps within a Triangle. * Earnings Season Starts Soon. * Five Automakers Hit New Highs - Who's Next? * Three Healthcare Stocks Setting Up Bullish. Small-cap ETF Triggers a Signal The S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) hit a 52-week closing high on... READ MORE
Broadcom (AVGO) fell on hards time in December with a decline to the breakout zone, but this zone ultimately held and it looks like the uptrend is ready to resume. First and foremost, AVGO is in a long-term uptrend after the big breakout in October and the 52-week highs in... READ MORE
The stock market is never 100% bullish with all stocks participating in an uptrend. There are always some holdouts and pockets of weakness, but the broader market can continue higher as long as the pockets of strength are greater than the pockets of weakness. The percentage of stocks above the... READ MORE
---- Strong Pockets Outweigh Weak Pockets ---- Large-caps Lead New High Expansion ---- SPY Momentum Remains Strong ---- QQQ Continues to Lead ---- IJR Stalls Near Prior High ---- Seven of Ten Sectors Hit New Highs ---- Materials, Industrials and Finance Lead New Highs ---- MLP ETF Breaks Out ----... READ MORE
---- S&P MidCap SPDR Catches a Bid ---- Finance SPDR Springs to Life ---- Citigroup and Morgan Stanley End Pullbacks ---- US Bancorp Leads Regional Bank SPDR ---- Broker-Dealer iShares Breaks Out of Flag ---- S&P MidCap SPDR Catches a Bid ---- Large-caps are leading so... READ MORE
The five FAANG stocks, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google (Alphabet), started the year strong as three moved back above their 50-day SMAs on Tuesday. Alphabet and Amazon were already above their 50-day SMAs so this means all five are back above these key moving averages. The chart below shows... READ MORE
---- SPY Ends the Year with a Stall ---- IJR Consolidates into Yearend ---- Energy, Materials and Industrials Finish 2017 Strong ---- Oil Finishes at High of the Year ----Aluminum, Copper and Nickel Finish Strong ---- Three Materials Stocks to Watch (MLM, VMC, NUE) ---- Acuity Bases in Third Quarter... READ MORE
The Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) surged to a 52-week high in late November and then formed a bullish continuation pattern as it consolidated the last few weeks. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up for KRE because of the breakouts in September and November, and the 52-week high in... READ MORE