KEY TAKEAWAYS * The FinTech ETF (FINX) is leading the market since September. * FINX is both strong and extended as the PPO exceeded 20%. * It is time to wait for the next setup or look within the group for setups. Chartists looking for stock setups can start with strong industry groups.... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The 10-yr Treasury Yield reversed its upswing with a sharp decline. * The 7-10 Yr Treasury Bond ETF surged and reversed its downswing. * Lower yields provided a big boost to the Home Construction ETF. The 10-yr Treasury Yield reversed its upswing with a sharp decline and the Home Construction... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Traders can improve their odds with market, sector and stock filters. * We should be in a bull market and the sector should be in an uptrend. * The stock should be in a long-term uptrend and leading. Even though trading based on chart analysis involves some discretionary decisions, chartists... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * SOXX is lagging SMH as it broke the 200-day SMA and confirmed a bearish pattern. * SMH is holding up because its top component remains strong. * Nevertheless SMH is at a moment of truth ahead of a big earnings report from Nvidia. Even though the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SMH)... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Oversold conditions create opportunities to trade with the long-term uptrend. * Oversold conditions provide the setup, but not the signals. * Chartists need a signal because price can become oversold and remain oversold. There is only one way to trade in a long-term uptrend: long. Forget about picking tops and... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Trend and momentum are proven concepts we can use to improve our edge. * Longer timeframes are better for trend-momentum * CandleGlance charts make it easy to rank and sort for momentum. There are no magic bullets, but we can improve our trading edge by starting our selection process with... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Stocks go through trending and non-trending phases. * Non-trending phases often last longer than trending phases. * CIBR recently broke out and started a new trending phase. The Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) is resuming the lead as it surged to new highs this past week. It is important to note that... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Over 70% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs. * SPY and RSP are trading near new highs. * We see a bullish continuation pattern in a key AI stock. It is a bull market for stocks. On the chart below, the S&P 500... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Whipsaws and losing trades are part of the process for trend-following strategies. * These strategies are profitable because average profits far exceed average losses. * Chartists can reduce whipsaws by adding signal thresholds to the 5/200 day SMA cross. Whipsaws and losing trades are part of the process for... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Chartists need a market timing mechanism to assess risk * Risk is above average during bear markets (preserve capital) * Risk levels are acceptable during bull markets (invest capital) Any strategy that trades stocks needs some sort of market timing mechanism to identify bull and bear markets. Typically, stock strategies... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Extended uptrends often start with a bang, a big bang. * Chartists can find big bangs by measuring price moves in ATR terms. * Paypal broke a major resistance level with a 5+ ATR advance in August. Extended trends often start with big bangs and major breakouts. Chartists can identify... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * A bullish trio triggers for the Home Construction ETF (ITB) in mid July. * Outsized advances and resistance breakouts often kick start uptrends. * The Trend Composite is a lagging indicator that triggers after follow through. The Home Construction ETF (ITB) is leading the market as it surged to a... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Smoothing the signal thresholds help to reduce whipsaws. * A new uptrend signaled for TLT as the 5-day exceeded the 200-day by more than 3% * TLT also sports a classic breakout and continuation signal. The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is turning the corner as a long-term trend... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Most stocks follow their underlying index or group. * Oversold conditions in long-term uptrends are opportunities. * Stocks can remain oversold so wait for an upward catalyst. The broad market and the group are big drivers for stock performance. Recently, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) led the market lower with... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The long-term trend provides perspective and sets the trading bias. * The bias is bullish during long-term uptrends. * Breaks below the 50-day SMA are viewed a opportunities, not threats. After a big run this year, Nvidia (NVDA) fell over 15% from its high and broke its 50-day simple moving... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * IJR broke out and a strong breakout should hold. * Broken resistance turns first support. * Small-caps are prone to extended trading ranges. Small-caps took the lead over the last two weeks with the S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) surging over 10% in five days and hitting a... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Nasdaq 100 stocks account for over 30% of the S&P 500. * Nasdaq 100 stocks represent the risk appetite in the stock market. * Chartists can quantify the risk appetite using Nasdaq 100 specific breadth indicators. The Nasdaq 100 is a major driver in the stock market and... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Finding Emerging Leaders within Key GroupsChartists can find emerging leaders using price and the price relative. * Breakouts and higher highs on the price chart show absolute strength. * Upturns and breakouts in the price-relative show relative strength. The broader market is fairly mixed with one clear leader: technology. I... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Big breakouts are bullish, but sometimes traders miss the breakout. * A throwback is a decline back to the breakout zone, which turns support. * Throwbacks offer traders a second chance to partake in breakouts. Chinese stocks wet on a tear from mid April to mid May with the China... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Absolute momentum defines trend direction. * Relative momentum quantifies the strength of the uptrend. * Take together, these two form the basis for a Dual Momentum Rotation Strategy. As the name suggests, Dual Momentum Rotation Strategies focus on stocks that are in absolute and relative uptrends. This is a two-step... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Corrections within bigger uptrends are opportunities. * Chartists can identify corrections using retracements and patterns. * The pattern provides a clear resistance level to watch for a breakout. There is a certain ebb and flow in uptrends. Often we see some sort of stair step higher with big advances and... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Chartists can measure performance by comparing highs and lows * Defense groups are leading SPY because they hit new highs already. * XLU is looking frothy because it is over 13% above its 200-day SMA. After sharp declines into mid April, stocks rebounded over the last three weeks and the... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * A key short-term breadth indicator became oversold in mid April. * Stocks are bouncing after this oversold reading. * Breadth, however, has yet to show a serious expansion in participation. Stocks fell sharply into late April and then rebounded over the last two weeks. SPY fell 5.34% from March... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Primary moves define the long-term trend * Secondary moves are corrections within bigger uptrends * Corrections provide opportunities to partake in the bigger uptrend The S&P 500 is down 5.5% this month and volatility is rearing its ugly head. This is a good time to get some... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Outsized Moves Can Jump Start Trends * Chartists can use ATR-SAR to Identify Outsized Moves * Housing and Retail are Leading Lower with Outsized Declines Trends often start with outsized moves. But how do we measure and identify such moves? Chartists can measure moves in Average True Range (ATR) terms... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Overbought is just another term for strong. RSI above 70 shows strong upside momentum, which his bullish. Stocks can become overbought (strong) and remain strong. Momentum and trend strategies are off to a roaring start here in 2024. More often than not, these strategies buy leading stocks that... READ MORE
The 200-day SMA is perhaps the most widely used long-term moving average. As its name implies, it is a simple indicator that chartists can use for trend-following and momentum strategies. For trend-following, we just need to know where prices stand relative to the 200-day SMA. For momentum, we need to... READ MORE
The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) failed again at the falling 40-week SMA and looks poised to resume its bigger downtrend. Keep in mind that bonds and yields move in the opposite direction. A resumption of the downtrend in TLT translates into a resumption of the uptrend in the... READ MORE
The Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES) is showing strength here in March as it breaks back above its 40-week SMA. More importantly, the long-term trend is up and this week's breakout argues for a continuation of this uptrend. The chart below shows XES with a... READ MORE
As its name suggests, the ATR Trailing Stop is normally used to trail a stop-loss for a long position. It can also be used to identify an outsized decline that could reverse an uptrend. Today's example will show how to apply the ATR Trailing Stop on a breakout... READ MORE
Most stocks surged with the broader market in the fourth quarter of 2023. SPY and QQQ extended their advances in 2024, but some stocks did not partake and fell back. Even so, some of these stocks show signs of long-term trend reversals and their declines in 2024 look corrective. This... READ MORE
Chartists can improve their odds by focusing on stocks that are in long-term uptrends and showing upside leadership. This is similar to a dual-momentum approach, which was covered last week. Today's example will use the 40-week SMA to define the trend, a 52-week high to confirm upside leadership... READ MORE
The momentum phenomenon has been a fixture in the US equity markets for decades. There are two types of momentum to consider: absolute momentum and relative momentum. Absolute momentum refers to the underlying trend, up or down. Relative momentum quantifies the strength of the uptrend and compares it to other... READ MORE
Divergences reflect a disconnect between price and the indicator. A bearish divergence forms when price forges a higher high and the indicator fails to confirm this high. In the case presented below, we have the S&P 500 moving higher and fewer stocks making it back above their 50... READ MORE
Gold is not the most exciting asset at the moment, but it is in a long-term uptrend and perhaps the strongest commodity out there. There are also signs that the January decline is ending as RSI hits a momentum support zone and a bullish continuation pattern forms. Note that GLD... READ MORE
This week's analysis will stick with the multiple timeframe approach. Today we are featuring a biotech stock with a channel breakout on the weekly chart and a classic retracement on the daily chart. Moreover, a larger bullish reversal pattern could be forming on the daily chart. The weekly... READ MORE
Chartists looking to increase their odds should consider two timeframes for their analysis. The longer timeframe sets the strategic tone, while the shorter timeframe defines the trading tactics. Strategically, I am interested in stocks with long-term uptrends. Tactically, I am looking for bullish continuation patterns to trade after a correction.... READ MORE
Mean-reversion strategies typically buy stocks when they are oversold, which means catching the falling knife. These declines are often rather sharp, but the odds favor some sort of bounce after reaching an oversold extreme. While there are no guarantees, chartists can mitigate risk by insuring that the stock is still... READ MORE
Tech stocks were hit with selling pressure to start the year, but many are still in long-term trends and some are nearing support-reversal zones. In particular, Apple (AAPL) fell to a support-reversal zone and I am on alert for a bounce. Let's investigate. First, the long-term trend is... READ MORE
Stocks went on a tear the last seven weeks with Nasdaq 100 stocks leading the charge. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained more than QQQ over the last seven weeks, but QQQ is still the only major index ETF to exceed its... READ MORE