The chart below shows the seasonal tendency for the S&P 500 over the last twenty years (1998 to 2017). The number at the top of each bar shows the percentage of months the S&P 500 advanced for that particular month, while the number at the bottom... READ MORE
.... Weekly Market Review & Outlook .... SPY has Yet to Start a Correction .... Small-caps Continue to Drift Higher .... QQQ Forms Second Big Engulfing Pattern .... S&P 500 Enters Weakest 3-month Stretch .... So Does 10-yr Yield! .... 10-yr T-Yield Bounces within Downtrend .... TLT Forms Big Bearish Engulfing, but... .... T-Bonds and the Dollar... READ MORE
.... The Great Rate Debate .... Correlations Do Not Reflect Magnitude .... BB&T Takes Two Steps Forward and One Step Backward .... Fifth Third, Huntington and PNC Financial .... Three Steel Stocks on the Move .... The Great Rate Debate Are yields rising, falling or flat? This depends, as always, on your timeframe. Chartists... READ MORE
Dentsply International (XRAY) has a large cup-with-handle pattern forming over the last twelve months and the stock is on the verge of breaking rim resistance. Popularized by William O'Neil of Investors Business Daily, the cup-with-handle is a bullish continuation pattern. This means it forms as a consolidation after... READ MORE
.... QQQ and Facebook hit with Dark Clouds .... Alphabet and Amazon Form Engulfing Patterns .... AMAT Forms Bearish Pennant .... A Feeble Bounce for Apple .... Etrade and Schwab Stall after Breakouts .... Citigroup Leads, but JP Morgan Shows Short-term Strength .... Cypress Forms Engulfing within Correction .... There were quite a few bearish candlestick patterns on... READ MORE
HCA Healthcare (HCA) is turning up at a key level and showing signs that the long-term uptrend is resuming. HCA is in a long-term uptrend because it broke out in January and recorded a 52-week high. This breakout zone turned into support around 82 as the stock fell back to... READ MORE
.... SPY Breaks out of Flag Pattern .... QQQ Holds the Gap as IJR Forms Bull Flag .... Industrials and Healthcare Lead with New Highs .... Tech, Discretionary and Finance Lag a Bit .... First Supports for Materials, Staples and Utilities .... Energy - Enough Said .... Tech ETF Bounce from Oversold Levels .... Insurance and Regional Banks... READ MORE
.... Vodafone in Dollars vs Pounds .... Index versus ETF versus Currency .... Emerging Markets ETF Hits Top of Channel .... Poland ETF Stalls within Uptrend .... China A-Shares ETF Breaks Out .... Italy and Spain Consolidate Gains .... Vodafone in Dollars vs Pounds Today I will take a look at some international ETFs. Before looking at... READ MORE
Despite a strong stock market in 2017, AT&T ($T) is having a tough time with a breakdown in early May and a sharp decline below the 200-day SMA. The stock rebounded after a double-digit decline with a bounce back to the 200-day SMA, which is now falling. Thus,... READ MORE
.... Big Techs Regain their Mojo .... Finance, Healthcare, Industrials and Materials Lead .... Short-term Yields Diverge from Long-term Yields .... Bank ETFs Stall after Breakouts .... Two Big Pharma Stocks: BMY and MRK .... 3 Hospital Stocks: HCA, LPNT, THC .... Four Networking Stocks: ARRS, CIEN, CSCO, FNSR .... XRX Breaks Out, FEYE Forms Flag and RLGY... READ MORE
The Biotech SPDR (XBI) is starting to lead the market again with a consolidation breakout and 52-week high. The chart shows the ETF hitting an initial 52-week high in February and then consolidating for four months. It looks like this consolidation is ending and the bigger uptrend is resuming with... READ MORE
The bar was 61.8 inches off the floor, but Leondardo still did not see it. All (bad) joking aside, I would like to look at corrections through the eyes of Charles Dow and Leonardo Fibonacci. These two may seem miles apart at first glance, but the numbers suggest otherwise.... READ MORE
* New Highs in Six Major index ETFs * Index AD Lines Hit New Highs * Mid-cap and Small-cap AD Volume Lines Lag * SPY Forms High Flag as QQQ Tests Support * IJR Leads for Four Weeks * Finance and Materials Lead New High List * Finance and Regional Bank SPDRs Hold Breakouts * Chemicals Lead Materials... READ MORE
.... Does the VIX Add Any Value? .... Setting the Benchmark .... System Ground Rules .... Consulting, Software and Data .... Normalizing the VIX with the PPO .... Testing Different PPO Extremes .... Testing with the VIX PPO Histogram .... Conclusions and Caveat Emptor .... Does the VIX Add Any Value? The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX)... READ MORE
Celgene (CELG) is a large biotech stock that is part of the Biotech iShares (IBB) and the Biotech SPDR (XBI). Overall, I would suggest that the long-term trend is up because the stock hit a 52-week high in mid-March and the 50-day EMA is above the rising 200-day EMA. The... READ MORE
.... QQQ Suffers Biggest Loss since early November .... EW Industrials Sector Nears New High .... Cummins and JetBlue Lead Industrials .... New Highs for EW Materials ETF and Cemex .... CA Forms Out-of-Place Ascending Triangle .... Cypress Semi Falls Back into Correction .... Double Top and Death Cross for F5, but .... Zimmer Biomet Fills Gap with... READ MORE
Nucor (NUE) is flat year-to-date and lagging the S&P 500, but the bigger trend is up and short-term momentum is turning up. The bigger trend is up because Nucor surged to a 52-week high in early December and the 10-week EMA remains above the 40-week EMA, even after... READ MORE
.... Bullish until it Ain't (seasonality) .... SPY Extend Higher .... Small-caps Challenge for Leadership .... Finance Sector Bids to End Correction .... Insurance Leads and Regionals Play Catch Up .... Materials Sector Hits New High .... XME Makes a Bid to End Correction (plus steel) .... Copper and Aluminum Bid to End Corrections .... Four Aluminum... READ MORE
.... Finding Strong and Persistent Uptrends .... Understanding Your Indicators .... A Simple Trend Following .... Measuring Trend Strength .... Focus on a Failure .... Strong Uptrend Scan Code .... Current State of the Market .... Finding Strong and Persistent Uptrends There are some incredibly strong and persistent uptrends in the market right now and I would like... READ MORE
After struggling the first three months of the year, Vulcan Materials (VMC) is showing signs of life since late March with good upside volume and a breakout in early May. Notice that the stock broke above a resistance zone in the 122-125 area and this zone turns into support. The... READ MORE
.... IJR Mean-Reversion Trade Exit .... Gold Rises without the Gold Miners .... Regional Banks Continue to Struggle .... Using an EMA Ribbon to Define the Trend (MA) .... Three Failed Setups (NTAP, STX, BMY) .... Hawaiian Holdings Bounces off Breakout .... Bullish Setups for MLM and CSRA .... A Bearish Setup for IRM .... IJR Mean-Reversion Trade Exit... READ MORE
United Parcel Service (UPS) has been lagging the broader market this year, but may be turning around as it bounces off support and momentum turns up. UPS surged to a 52-week high in December and then retraced 50% with a sharp decline in January. The stock managed to firm near... READ MORE
Trading and investing are all about putting the odds in your favor, and chartists can increase their odds with one key assumption: the trend will remain in force until proven otherwise. Coming from the writings of Charles Dow, this assumption means a trend in motion is expected to stay in... READ MORE
.... New Highs Expand in Large-caps and Mid-caps .... EW S&P 500 Reflects Broad Strength .... SPY Hits another New High .... QQQ Extends its "Overbought" Streak .... Small-caps and Mid-caps Perk Up .... New highs in XLY, XLK, XLI, XLV, XLU and XLP .... Good Weekend Stocks Lead XLY to New High... READ MORE
.... Small-caps Bounce Back from the Abyss .... Lots of Winners and Losers Out There .... A Big Chemical Stock Breaking Flag Resistance .... An Industrial Stock Bouncing off Support .... Four Tech Stocks with Small Corrections .... Big Pharma Stocks Perk Up .... Three Miscellaneous Stocks: FBHS, SYY and XRAY.... Small-caps Bounce Back from the Abyss... READ MORE
The Russian Trading System Index ($RTSI) is struggling this year and down around 6.5% year-to-date. In contrast, the S&P 500 is up over 7% year-to-date and the Eurotop 100 ($EUR) is up around 6.5%. In addition to relative weakness, the index sports a bearish continuation pattern... READ MORE
.... IJR Mean-Reversion Trade in Play .... Marking Upswing Support for MDY .... Chinese Stocks Spring to Life .... Asian Index ETFs Show Broad Strength .... Finding Stocks within an Industry Group .... Aluminum Stocks Look Poised for Upturn .... Railroad Stocks Lead with Big Gains .... Stocks to Watch: MON, FLIR, CY, PANW, PAYX, WWW .... IJR Mean-Reversion... READ MORE
.... Stocks Bounce without Biotechs .... Breadth Remains Bullish, but Weakening .... Nasdaq Stocks Support S&P 500 .... QQQ Hits Yet Another New High .... Small-caps Not Feeling the Love .... Sector Balance Clearly Bullish .... %Above 200-day Ranking for Sectors .... XLU, XLP, XLI and XLK Lead with Fresh Highs .... TLT Holds Surge and Breakout... READ MORE
.... Do stops really help? .... Setting the Benchmark .... System Ground Rules .... Consulting, Software and Data .... Testing Some Basic EMA Crossovers .... Base System and Sample Charts .... Trailing Stops, Profit Targets and Both .... Backtest Results .... Testing a Percent Profit Target .... Conclusions and Caveat Emptor .... Scan Code .... Do stops really help? We have all... READ MORE
Banking stocks bounced on Tuesday as the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) fell and the 10-yr T-Yield ($TNX) moved higher. These bounces reinforce the positive correlation with TLT and the negative correlation with $TNX. The chart below shows three big banks in long-term uptrends and six month stalls. Technically, Bank... READ MORE
.... XLF Lags as TLT Surges .... A Classic Corrective Sequence for KRE .... TLT Holds Breakout and Nears 200-day .... T-bond Correlations in Play .... Large-caps Continue to Lead New High List .... Utilities and Staples Lead Sector New High List .... Charts: MMC, CB, TRV, MDLZ, KHC, DPS, CMCSA, AAL, JBLU, MDT .... XLF Lags as... READ MORE
The Utilities SPDR (XLU) is clearly one of the leading sectors in 2017 because it is trading at its highest level of the year. XLU, by the way, is the only sector SPDR that hit a year-to-date high on Monday. The chart shows XLU correcting into November 2016, breaking out... READ MORE
The REIT iShares (IYR) and the Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ) are at interesting junctures because they corrected within an uptrend. Even though both are at potential reversal zones, chartists should be careful because retail REITs and hotel REITs are weak spots within the REIT universe. The chart below shows IYR... READ MORE
The stock market has been in correction mode since early March when looking at the EW S&P 500 ETF (RSP) and S&P MidCap SPDR (MDY). Together, these two ETFs represent 900 stocks and cover the majority of the market, and they have been flat since March... READ MORE
.... The Stealthy Looking Correction .... AD Volume Lines Reflect Corrective Period .... High-Low Lines Have Yet to Turn Down .... Percent Above 200-day EMA Deteriorates Further .... SPY Gaps Down like its September 2016 .... Setting a Correction Zone for QQQ .... IJR: Breakout Failed, but Short-term Oversold .... Finance and Industrials Gap Lower .... Low Correlations are... READ MORE
.... Passive versus Too Active .... Using the Inspect Feature on SharpCharts .... The Good, the Bad and the Neutral .... Scan Code to Measure Performance .... Building a Correction ChartList .... S&P 500 Breadth, Momentum and Correction Target .... The active versus passive debate has been raging for some time now. On one side... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD), Euro ETF (FXE) and the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) are all up year-to-date and showing positive correlation. This is not a big surprise because gold is negatively correlated to the Dollar and negatively correlated to the 10-yr T-Yield ($TNX). The Euro accounts for around 57%... READ MORE
.... Will Bonds or Small-caps Turn Up First? (IJR, MDY, TLT, IEF) .... Citigroup is Leading the Big Banks (XLF, JPM, BAC, MS, GS) .... A Big ETF Provider and Two Brokers (BLK, SCHW, ETFC) .... Three Railroads with Long-term Uptrends (UNP, NSC, KSU) .... Three Big Utilities Go for Breakouts (AES, D, DUK, SO)... READ MORE
Textron (TXT), which is part of the industrials sector and the defense-aerospace industry, surged to new highs after the election and then declined in 2017. I consider this a correction within a bigger uptrend because the decline retraced less than 50% of the prior advance and the stock remains above... READ MORE
Small-Cap High-Low Line is Still Rising The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but small-caps and mid-caps continue to drag their feet. The chart below shows the cumulative High-Low Line for S&P SmallCap High-Low Percent ($SMLHLP) with the 10-day EMA (pink). Notice that the High-Low Line... READ MORE