September was Dull .... October has a History .... Shifting the Seasonality Chart for Two Views .... The VIX versus the Volatility ETNs .... Webinar Video .... //// .... Click here for the Webinar Video September was Dull October is here and the consensus is for a volatile month. I can certainly understand the reasoning because historical... READ MORE
Broad Market Breadth Remains Bullish .... SPY Holds above Resistance Break .... 7-10 YR T-Bond ETF Fails to Hold Gains .... Oil Breaks a Wedge .... A Couple Dozen Charts to Watch .... //// .... Broad market breadth turned bullish in March and will remain bullish until there is a bearish signal. I use breadth indicators for... READ MORE
The S&P 500 broke above a big resistance zone with the July surge and this breakout should be considered bullish until proven otherwise. Classic technical analysis teaches us that broken resistance turns into the first support level and this is exactly what happened in September. Notice how the... READ MORE
Deutsche Bank dominated the news late in the week, but US banks have been largely unaffected and bullish flags are taking shape in two bank-related ETFs. The charts below show the Bank SPDR (KBE) and the Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) in long-term uptrends. Notice that the 50-day EMAs are above... READ MORE
Are US Stocks Affected by European Financials? .... Five Broad Market Risk Ratios .... Small-caps are Killing It .... Junk Bonds Show No Fear .... A Selling Climax for Deutsche Bank? .... Friday Food for Thought .... //// .... Are US Stocks Affected by European Financials? The Deutsche Bank woes are dominating the news right now and markets... READ MORE
Finance and Tech Power S&P 500 .... Broad Market Stalls .... QQQ and IWM Maintain Upward Drift .... XLI and XLB Bounce with Higher Lows .... XLE Holds Uptrend as XES Challenges Resistance .... Metals & Mining SPDR Extends Breakout .... Art's Charts ChartList Update .... //// .... Finance and Tech Power S&P... READ MORE
McDonalds shareholders are certainly not "lovin it" right now because the stock is in a long-term downtrend and it is one of the worst performing stocks in the Dow Industrials. The chart below shows the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA and the stock below the 200-day SMA.... READ MORE
Year-to-date Performance for 3 Key Commodities .... Oil Remains Stuck in Downtrend .... Copper Consolidates with Downtrend .... Gold Stalls above Breakout Zone .... Charts to Watch - XLF, GOOGL, FDN and MSFT .... //// .... Year-to-date Performance for 3 Key Commodities The oil, gold and copper charts could give us some insight into Treasury yields, future... READ MORE
Defining the Uptrends using Benchmark Lows .... Broad Market Breadth Review .... Watch the Stock-Bond Ratio for Clues on Risk Appetite .... %Above 200-day Triggers for Consumer Discretionary Sector .... Technology Sector Shows No Signs of Weakness .... Charts to Watch - XRT, ITB, XSD, KRE, XME, XES and IEF .... The Volatility Calendar .... //// .... Defining the... READ MORE
Long-term Trend Overrides Short-term Weakness .... Percent above 200-day EMA Remains Strong .... SPY Follows Through on Inside Day Reversal .... QQQ Leads as IWM Challenges High .... Housing and Retail are Still Lagging .... Regional Banks Extend Correction .... Treasuries Surge within Corrective Patterns .... //// .... Long-term Trend Overrides Short-term Weakness Stocks fell sharply in early September... READ MORE
The Retail SPDR (XRT) is at its moment-of-truth with a long-term bullish pattern battling a short-term bearish pattern. Long-term, the ETF formed a double bottom and broke resistance with the July surge. This breakout zone turned into support with a successful test in early August. After a sharp decline from... READ MORE
Chartists looking to track the finance sector can turn to the iShares Financials ETF (IYF). Note that the Finance SPDR (XLF) is in the midst of a metamorphosis this week so chartists can consider watching IYF for clues on the finance sector this week. IYF is in a long-term uptrend... READ MORE
There is the tech sector, and then there is the rest of the stock market. It is not that bad, but the tech sector is clearly head and shoulders above the other sectors. This is true with the Technology SPDR (XLK) and the EW Technology ETF (RYT). The first SharpChart... READ MORE
Technology ETFs Establish Key Levels to Watch .... Semis and Networking ETFs Follow Suit .... Cisco Forms a Pair of Inside Days .... A Big Counter-Trend Advance in XLE .... Crude Remains in Long-term Downtrend .... Biotech SPDR Holds its Breakout .... Three Big Biotechs to Watch .... //// .... Technology ETFs Establish Key Levels to Watch The technology... READ MORE
Revisiting the 2013 Taper Tantrum .... Stocks Entitled to a Correction .... Oversold within an Uptrend .... Watching Inside Days in XLY and XLI .... XLE and XES Go their Separate Ways .... Exxon and Chevron Lead XLE Lower .... Radware Breaks Out as Icon Firms .... //// .... Revisiting the 2013 Taper Tantrum Many analysts are comparing the... READ MORE
The chart for TripAdvisor (TRIP) shows bearish patterns on two different timeframes and the stock looks poised for a breakdown. First, note that the long-term trend is down because the 50-day EMA is well below the 200-day EMA. Also notice that the stock hit a 52-week low with the sharp... READ MORE
Webinar Video (here) -- Art's Charts ChartList (here) Gap and Volatility Hold .... Measuring Broad Market Breadth .... Using AD Percent for Early Warning .... New Highs Lag in S&P 500 .... Vast Majority of Stocks Still Trending Up .... Putting it All Together .... Discretionary and Staples Weigh on Sector Table... READ MORE
It is always interesting to find out which stocks advance when the market falls sharply, such as Friday. The S&P 500 was down over 2% with heavy selling pressure, but 11 stocks managed to buck the selling pressure and close higher on Friday. How's that for... READ MORE
Comparing the Current Decline with Prior Events .... Measuring Selling Climaxes .... Just a Pullback or More? .... Three Items Marking Next Support for the S&P 500 .... Putting EMA Crosses to the Test .... Mean Reversion Systems have Positive Expectancy .... //// .... Comparing the Current Decline with Prior Events The major index ETFs broke... READ MORE
Marking Pullback Support for the S&P 500 .... QQQ Stalls as Apple Lags the Fab Five .... Apple Falls on High Volume .... Alphabet and Microsoft Hold above Breakouts .... Amazon and Facebook are the Clear Leaders .... XLY Shows Internal Weakness .... Five Consumer Discretionary Stocks Showing Weakness .... Friday Food for Thought .... //// .... Marking... READ MORE
A Stealth Correction ... Stocks to Watch on the Art's Charts ChartList ... An Impressive Parade of New Highs ... XBI Successfully Tests Breakout ... XOP is Outperforming XES ... Volatility Calendar ... //// ... A Stealth Correction A stock or ETF can correct with a pullback, a trading range or a combination of the two.... READ MORE
The year started weak for small-caps, but their fortunes quickly turned around in February and this group is now leading the market. The chart below shows the Russell 2000 relative to the Russell 1000 using the price relative ($RUT:$RUI ratio). The Russell 2000 represents the 2000 smallest stocks in... READ MORE
Click here for Webinar recording .... Linear Regression Defines the Trend .... Small, Mid and Micro Lead the Charge .... IWM Works its Way Higher .... The Volatility Calendar .... Is it Possible to Profit from Volatility? .... Webinar Preview .... //// ... Linear Regression Defines the Trend The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) remains with a slow... READ MORE
Semiconductors are leading the charge in tech stocks as the Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) extends its gains and notches another 52-week high this week. Note that the ETF is up around 15% the last three months and it is one of the top performing industry group ETFs. The Semiconductor iShares (SOXX)... READ MORE
Taking the Emotion out of Jobless Claims and Non-Farm Payrolls .... No Issues with Weekly SPY Chart .... Backtest Review for Key EMA Crossover .... ChartCon Strategy Preview .... QQQ Stalls with Very Tight Range .... Small-caps and Large-caps Continue to Outperform .... AD Percent Stalls along with Indexes .... New Highs Wane, but New Lows Remain... READ MORE
REITs and Banks go their Separate Ways // Financial Services Starts to Outperform // Real Estate Starts to Underperform // Notes on XLRE and XLFS // REITs are Negatively Correlated to Treasury Yields // Banks are Positively Correlated to Yields //// ..... REITs and Banks go their Separate Ways Standard and Poor's is removing REITs... READ MORE
It has been a rough summer for Whole Foods Market (WFM) as the stock plunged in June and late July. Both declines were sharp and featured big gaps. The stock did bounce between the two declines, but formed a lower high in late July. Most recently, WFM has been consolidating... READ MORE
Webinar Recording ---- Webinar ChartList SPY and MDY are Barely Positive this Month // RSI(5) and the Dreaded Double Dip // The Noose Continues to Tighten for Treasuries // How Yields Effect Gold, Utilities and Finance // US 10-yr Yields Sticks Out // XLF and KRE Maintain Breakouts // XLU and IYR Forge Bullish Setups... READ MORE
Stocks in the finance sector have been strong the last four days with the Insurance SPDR (KIE) showing chart leadership. Note that the Finance SPDR (XLF), Broker-Dealer iShares (IAI) and Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) are all up over the past week, but KIE is the only one trading at a... READ MORE
SPY and MDY are Barely Positive this Month // RSI(5) and the Dreaded Double Dip // The Noose Continues to Tighten for Treasuries // How Yields Effect Gold, Utilities and Finance // US 10-yr Yields Sticks Out // XLF and KRE Maintain Breakouts // XLU and IYR Forge Bullish Setups // Gold Breaks, but Becomes Oversold... READ MORE
The Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR (XES) looks vulnerable because the bigger trend is down and the ETF just broke a wedge trend line. The chart shows the 50-day EMA (green) below the 200-day EMA (red) and this suggests that a long-term downtrend remains underway. The ETF got... READ MORE
Click here for the webinar video recording The Song Remains the Same for SPY // Upward Price Action > Waning Momentum // IWM Continues to Lead // Bollinger Band Squeezes for KRE and XLF // Beware of the Head Fake // Adding a Trend Condition // Scanning for Bollinger Band Squeezes // Webinar Preview //// ..... The Song Remains... READ MORE
Mattel (MAT) led the market from early October to early February with a 65 percent advance and then moved into a large consolidation the last six months. More recently, the stock surged off support in late June and then formed a smaller consolidation near resistance. Notice that the stock advanced... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD) and the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) are two of the best performing asset class ETFs this year and both remain in clear uptrends. GLD is up over 26% year-to-date and TLT is up around 16%. One would not expect bonds and gold to be leading... READ MORE
All Time Highs Set the Tone // Four Indecisive Weeks for the S&P 500 EW Index // Bandwidth Hits Lowest Level in over 10 Years // S&P 500 Clears Upper Band // Russell 2000 Remains on Bull Signal //// ..... All Time Highs Set the Tone The major stock indexes have traded... READ MORE
Broad Market Strength affirms Bull Market // Short-term Yields Edge Higher - Will Long-term Yields Follow? // Extrapolating from the June Swoon in Treasury Yields // Finance Sector Remains Strong // Regional Bank SPDR Holds Breakout - JPM, C, BAC, USB // Setting first Supports for the Fab Five - FB, GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT... READ MORE
Baidu ($BIDU) has basically gone nowhere since 2014, but the stock is showing signs of buying pressure recently with a wedge breakout. First, the weekly chart shows the stock surging some 200% and moving above 170 for the first time in late 2013. The stock peaked in late 2014 and... READ MORE
Click here for the Webinar video - Click here for the Webinar ChartList Twenty Days Since SPY Became "Overbought" // RSI for IWM finally Hits 70 // Small-caps and Large-techs Continue to Lead // Tech, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare Lead // Utilities and Staples are Lagging // Setting First Support for the Offensive... READ MORE
DR Horton (DHI) is part of the housing group and the stock is in a long-term uptrend. I based this trend assessment on three things. First, the 50-day EMA is above the 200-day. Second, the 200-day EMA is rising. Third, the stock hit a 52-week high in July. DHI pulled... READ MORE
SystemTrader // Introduction // Setting Ground Rules // Picking the Securities // Buy-and-Hold Performance // Reducing Drawdowns with Simple Timing // Increasing Returns with Pure Momentum // Combining Trend-Following and Momentum // Conclusions - Past Performance.... // Asset Group ETFs // Further Study //// ........ Introduction Today we will dive into the world of asset class rotation by testing some tradi... READ MORE