Oracle broke above its 200-day moving average back in early March and then pulled back over the last ten weeks. There are signs that this pullback is ending because Aroon Up just surged above Aroon Down. Developed by Tushar Chande, Aroon means "dawn's early light" in... READ MORE
4 AD Lines Hitting New Highs // SPY Surges with Gaps // Using CCI and StochRSI Together (XLI example) // QQQ Leads with Highest CCI Reading // 5 Sectors Spring to Life // 3 Industry Group Breakouts to Watch // XME and GDX Become Short-term Oversold // Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR Holds Support Bounce... READ MORE
SPY Volatility Expansion is Bullish // High-Low Lines Turn Back Up // Mid-caps Lead New High List // Sectors Reflect Broad Market Strength // Consumer Discretionary is the Only Weak Link // EW Technology ETF Challenges Highs // Staples and Utilities Stall within Uptrends // Friday Food For Thought //// .... SPY Volatility Expansion is Bullish Last Friday I... READ MORE
Small and Micros Lead the Way // Sector Performance Says Risk On // Gaps Fuel the Breakouts in QQQ, SPY and IWM // Materials and Finance Lead Sector SPDRs // Equal-weight Finance Leads with Higher High // Metals & Mining SPDR Gets Momentum Pop // Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR Surges off Support // Scanning... READ MORE
Ford is making a big statement today with a successful test of the 200-day moving average and a break above the mid May high. The chart shows Ford (F) surging in February for its first breakout at 12. After exceeding 13.50, the stock retraced 50-62% with a pullback to... READ MORE
ÂÂ Small Gaps Could Signal End to Pullbacks // When to Pull the Trigger? // Money Moves out of Safe-haven Bonds // Finance Remains in the Spotlight // Regional Banks Take the Lead // Webinar Preview //// ........... Small Gaps Could Signal End to Pullbacks The short-term trends remain down, but I am seeing signs that these... READ MORE
Stocks hitting 52-week highs are in clear uptrends and they are the market leaders. I am not going to feature a stock hitting a new high today, but rather look at one that has a good chance of hitting a new high in the coming weeks. The weekly chart below... READ MORE
It has been a wild ride for the Technology SPDR (XLK) since August, but the ETF is showing signs of strength by holding the 200-day moving average in May. The red line shows the 200-day SMA dissecting the chart in the 41.5-42 area. Note that XLK broke above this... READ MORE
Volatility Contracts on SPY Chart // QQQ Extends its Stall // April Gaps Remain for AAPL, GOOGL and MSFT // A Reasonable Pullback for IWM // Index and Sector Table Update // Industrials and Finance Hold the Key // How Treasury Yields affect other Assets // 7-10 YR T-Bond ETF Puts Breakout on Hold // Dollar Gets a... READ MORE
Small-caps Gear Up for Big Test // Using %B to Identify Oversold Conditions // Indicators Overshoot for QQQ // IWM Remains with a Bullish Setup // Intraday or End-of-day Signals? // Treasuries Signal Risk On // XLF Surges as KRE and IAI Break Out //// ........... Small-caps Gear Up for Big Test Today I will show QQQ, SPY... READ MORE
QualCom has been going nowhere since early March, but a breakout may be in the making as the stock distances itself from two key moving averages. The chart shows QCOM with the 50-day and 200-day SMAs in the 51-52 area. The stock has bounced between 50 and 53 since early... READ MORE
Mixed Up May as Tech offsets Finance // Mild Correction Extends for SPY // QQQ Reflects Strength in Tech // Watching Bonds for Clues on Risk Appetite // Adding an Exit Strategy to the PPO Signals // Watching Regional Banks, Semis and Homebuilders // Finance Sector Fails to Pop // SKYY and IGV Show Relative Strength //// ........... Mixed... READ MORE
The Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) is one the leading industry-group ETFs at midday on Monday with a gain of around 2%. A look at the chart shows this big gain coming at a potential support or reversal zone. First, notice that XSD broke resistance with a big move in February. Broken... READ MORE
SPY Pulls back within Uptrend // QQQ Battles Support and Lags // Breadth Indicators Stall // High-Low Lines Extend Advances // Sector Table Remains Bullish // Consumer Discretionary and Technology are the Weak Links // Finance and Industrials are Holding Up // Healthcare Weighed down by Biotechs // Staples and Utilities Remain the Leaders // Energy and Materials Maintain... READ MORE
SPY Tests the Gap // Giving QQQ a Little Wiggle Room // Broad Selling in Finance and Consumer Discretionary // XLF and XLI Test Breakout Resolve // Treasuries Reflect Risk-off Mode // Seven Stocks with Bullish Setups to Watch //// ........... SPY Tests the Gap The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) gapped up on Tuesday and... READ MORE
The EW Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD) got a bounce off support Monday-Tuesday, but gave it all back on Wednesday and broke support with a sharp decline. The chart shows the ETF forming a lower high in April and ultimately breaking support on Wednesday with a gap down. This makes for... READ MORE
SPY Firms within Bull Flag // Treasuries Could hold the Key for Stocks // Mind the 13-April Gaps // Banks are Holding Up Well // XRT Reverses within Zigzag Pattern // Internet ETF Grinds Higher // Webinar Preview //// ....... The green Raff Regression Channel defines the overall uptrend in SPY and the red Raff Regression Channel marks... READ MORE
The Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) took a hit on Monday and closed below support from the April low. This move is reversing the counter-trend bounce and signaling a continuation of the bigger downtrend. $SSEC is in a big downtrend with lower lows and lower highs since the initial breakdown in June... READ MORE
Consumer Discretionary Groups Underperforming // $SPX Pullback Nears first Support Zone // XLK Nears Broken Resistance and Key Retracement // Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft Firm at Support // Five Big Banks Tests their April Breakouts //// ....... I will be showing some group charts to provide analysis for the risk indicators, the broad market indexes, the... READ MORE
Oil remains in an uptrend this year, but the bigger trend remains down and this could be just a counter-trend bounce. The price chart shows the USO Oil Fund (USO) in the top window and June Crude (^CLM16) in the bottom window. I am using June Crude for analysis because... READ MORE
Isolating the Key Trend in the S&P 500 // Breadth Indicators Near Moment-of-truth // New Highs Still Outpacing New Lows // The Weight of the Evidence Is.... // Using Breadth and Price Action for Sectors // Sector Summary and Ranking Table // Friday Food for Thought //// ....... Isolating the Key Trend in the S&... READ MORE
A Market Entitled to a Correction // Using StochRSI to Time Pops in QQQ // A Mild Correction for SPY // Big Techs and Biotechs Drive QQQ Lower // Breaking Down the Big Five - FAAAM // Apple is the Weakest of the Big Five, but.... // Microsoft and Alphabet Hit Interesting Junctures //// ....... A Market Entitled... READ MORE
There are bearish engulfing patterns and then there are BEARISH ENGULFING patterns. VeriSign formed the latter with one of the biggest I have seen in some time. The chart shows the bearish engulfing pattern opening above the April high and finishing near the early March low. The stock got a... READ MORE
SPDRs versus Equal-weight Sectors // Three Long-term Sector Laggards // Two Long-term Sector Leaders // Technology and Consumer Discretionary Weigh // Marking Key Support for Finance, Industrials and Healthcare // Staples and Utilities Still Leading on Price Charts // Materials is Most Extended // Webinar Preview //// ....... SPDRs versus Equal-weight Sectors The sector SPDRs represent large-caps stocks with... READ MORE
The first week of the month is always a big week for Treasury bonds and the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT). There are always a slew of key economic reports and the employment report is usually the first Friday of the month. I am not going to get into the... READ MORE
Putting the Pullback into Perspective // Breadth Softens, but Bullish Signals Remain // New Highs Dwindle, but Stay Net Positive // The Key Level for SPY is Obvious // A Battle Zone Brews for IWM // A Bull Flag for QQQ? //// ....... Putting the Pullback into Perspective The Nasdaq 100 ETF led the market lower with... READ MORE
Semis Lead Tech Breakdown // Retail Leads EW Consumer Discretionary Lower // Adding MACD to the Best Seven Months Strategy // Adding Bonds for a Rotational Seven Month Strategy // Friday Food for Thought //// ....... Semis Lead Tech Breakdown Semiconductors and the average tech stock were holding up better than large-cap techs, but that changed... READ MORE
Generals Not Following the Troops // Unfilled Gaps Haunt QQQ // SPY Set to Test Gap Zone // IWM is the Current Leader // XLI Leads with New High // Three Strong Groups within Technology // Yen Broke out Before BoJ Surprise // Gold Battles Flag Breakout // Oil Reaches Fibonacci Retracement // Stocks to Watch ADI, INTC, QCOM,... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is one of the weakest of the major index ETFs right now because of several large-caps within the ETF. Note that Apple (-10%), Facebook (-6%), Google (-6.5%) and Microsoft (-8%) are all down sharply this month. Amazon (+2%) is the only one of the... READ MORE
SystemTrader // Dissecting the Best Six Months Pattern // Historical Numbers Confirm // Shorting the Market is a Challenge // What is the deal with October? // Reducing the Dreaded Drawdown // Testing the 50-200 Cross Since 1950 // Final Thoughts // ......... May is approaching and this means the stock market is entering its weakest six-month period. With... READ MORE
The appetite for risk has increased over the past month with small-caps, mid-caps and micro-caps leading the market higher. The PerfChart below shows one-month performance for the S&P 500 SPDR (red) and seven other broad market index ETFs. The S&P MidCap SPDR (green), S&P... READ MORE
Small-caps, Junk Bonds and Risk Appetite // QQQ Forms Island Reversal // IWM Continues to Outperform // SPY Holds Breakout // HACK Consolidates after Big Surge // Seven Cyber Security Stocks to Watch //// Small-caps, Junk Bonds and Risk Appetite Even though the stock market may be ripe for a correction of some sort in the... READ MORE
SPY Challenges the Top of the Range // QQQ Continues to Lag SPY // Breadth Remains Strong Enough // High-Low Percent Wanes in April // Treasury Yields Could be Bottoming // Assets Affected by Rising Rates // Breakouts for the Finance, Bank and Broker ETFs // Oil Hits Prior Support Breaks // Gold Battles Flag Breakout // Dollar Turns... READ MORE
Large-caps Still Leading, but Small-caps Perk Up // Mind the Gaps in SPY and IWM // Sector Rotation is Bullish for Broader Market // XLI, XLK and XLY Near 52-week Highs // XLY, XLI and XLK Hold Consolidation Breakouts // Utilities and Staples Suffer as Bond Surrogates // Short-term Leaders Remain Strong // Yield Surge is Bullish... READ MORE
There has been a clear changing of the guard in April and chartists can see this change with a PerfChart on two different timeframes. The first PerfChart shows performance for the nine sectors SPDRs and SPY for the first three months of the year. Notice that the Consumer Staples SPDR... READ MORE
New Highs for SPY and DIA // Uptrends Extend for SPY, QQQ and IWM // New Highs in Several AD Lines // Risk Indicators Turn Up Again // Five Clear Sector Leaders // Three of Five FAAAM Stocks Strong // Webinar Highlights //// New Highs for SPY and DIA The weight of the evidence remains bullish for... READ MORE
Electronic Arts (EA) got a big bounce off support with expanding volume and a strong Accumulation Distribution Line. On the price chart, EA plunged in late January and early February on high volume and this looks like a selling climax. The stock quickly recovered with pretty good volume and then... READ MORE
Oil Hits Resistance in Retracement Zone // Energy and Finance Lagging Overall // XLE Forms Yet Another Wedge // Short-term Breakout Holding for XLE // Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR Lags XLE //// Oil Enters Potential Reversal Zone In Friday's commentary, I noted that oil was in a long-term downtrend and... READ MORE
It was a pretty good week for the stock market with the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) and the Finance SPDR (XLF) showing upside leadership for a change. IWM gained 3.21% for the week and led the major index ETFs higher. XLF gained 4.60% and was the second strongest... READ MORE
Dow Breaks out of Massive Triangle // Sectors Close to 52-week Highs // Sector High-Low Leaders // XLK is the Clear Leader // Finance Perks Up with Flag Breakout // Healthcare Challenges Channel // Silver Hits Resistance // Dollar Firms at Support // Oil: A Bounce within a Downtrend //// Dow Breaks out of Massive Triangle The chart below... READ MORE