Taiwan Semiconductor is breaking out of a bullish pattern with good volume and the stock is showing relative strength. The price chart shows a cup-with-handle forming from December to mid-February. This is a bullish continuation pattern that was popularized by William O'Neil. There are three resistance levels marked... READ MORE
SPY Heads for First Retracement // A Look at the 2011 Double Bottom Bounce // QQQ Forges an Island Reversal // Energy, Materials and Industrials Lead Short-term Bounce // Charting the Key Stocks in XLE, XLB and XLI // XOM, CVX, SLB, DD, DOW, MON, GE, HON, MMM //// Mind the Gaps SPY followed through on... READ MORE
Keep the Long-term Trends in Mind // A Candlestick Reversal for SPY // XLP Triggers Bullish PPO Signal // Brent versus WTI // Webinar Preview //// Keep the Long-term Trends in Mind The long-term trends are down for SPY, QQQ and IWM, but a short-term reversal pattern last week and a gap on Monday could... READ MORE
52-week Lows Reinforce Downtrends // Downtrends in Five Key Asian Markets // Italy and Spain Lead Europe to New Lows // Lower Lows all Around in the US // Using the %Above 50-day EMA to Gauge Participation // Using the %Above 50-day EMA to Rank Performance // Friday Food for Thought 52-week Lows Reinforce Downtrends The... READ MORE
Trend Trumps All Else // Forget about Support Levels in a Downtrend // Oversold Can Become Even More Oversold // Elevator Down Stairs Higher // Few Places to Hide // Correlations Rise in a Bear Market // Cash is a Real Position // A Penny Saved is Worth more Than a Penny Earned //// Stocks are getting slammed... READ MORE
Chevron (CVX) is a long-term downtrend and looks vulnerable to another leg lower. The price chart shows CVX trading below the falling 200-day moving average and below the 50-day moving average. Also notice that the 50-day is below the 200-day. These relationships indicate that the long-term trend is down. The... READ MORE
Before looking at the short-term situation for SPY, QQQ and IWM, let's review the bigger trends using the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. Some things are open for debate in the stock market, but I don't think there is much debate on the long-term... READ MORE
Trend is Not Everything, it's... // Those Pesky Hammers // New Lows in Key Sectors // Even Healthcare is not Healthy // Long-term Laggards Become Short-term Leaders // Staples Start Feeling the Heat //// Trend is Not Everything, it's... If Vince Lombardi were a trend follower, he would probably say: "trend... READ MORE
There are nine sectors in the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and their weights range from 2.82% (materials) to 20.17% (technology). The technology sector is around seven times bigger than the materials sector and this means that not all sectors affect the S&P 500 the... READ MORE
After sharp declines the first two weeks of the year, the stock market turned into one mixed up beast the last three weeks. The PerfChart below shows three-week performance for the seven major index ETFs. All seven were down 6+ percent the first two weeks of the year, but four... READ MORE
Even Consumer Staples are Under Pressure // Bulk of the Evidence is Bearish // Stocks Stall within Downtrends // Breadth Indicators Remain Bearish // High Beta Stocks Continue to Underperform // T-Bond ETFs Extend Uptrends // Big Move in Gold and GDX, but Still No Uptrend // Dollar Negates Wedge Breakout // Yen Defies BoJ with Resistance Challenges... READ MORE
Wrong Sectors Leading // Key Industry Groups Lagging // Is the FORCE Bullish or Bearish? // Testing Wedge Support (SPY, QQQ, IWM) // Overview of the Nine Sector SPDRs // Oversold Bounces for Housing and Semis // Showing Patience with the Gold Miners ETF (and gold) //// Wrong Sectors Leading The stock market is in the midst... READ MORE
The US Dollar ETF (UUP) is getting whacked on Wednesday and breaking its January lows. The trading day is not over yet, but the Dollar is on pace for its biggest daily decline since early December. On the price chart below, notice how UUP fell sharply in early December and... READ MORE
Long-term Trend Trumps // Short-term Wedges Taking Shape // Key Ratio Charts Still Trending Lower // Smattering of New Highs // New Highs Concentrated in Three Groups // Relative and Absolute Uptrends // Webinar Highlights //// Long-term Trend Trumps Stocks firmed in mid January as the major index ETFs formed big hammers and we even saw some... READ MORE
It was a rough January for stocks, but CBS held up quite well and shows a bullish looking chart. On the price chart, CBS sports a classic surge-correct-breakout sequence. First, the stock advanced over 20% with a move from ~39 to ~52. Second, the stock corrected by retracing around 62%... READ MORE
Long-term Trends Versus Short-term Conditions // Analyzing the 2000 and 2007 Tops // Applying Recent History to Current Price Action // Three Positive Characteristics for Utilities // Yield Alternatives Shine // Bonds Gets Extended, but Still Bullish // First Target for Oil Bounce // Gold Hits Key Retracement Zone // Dollar Holds Breakout - Euro and Yen Fail... READ MORE
Small-caps and Large-techs Lead Lower // SPY Fails to Follow Through // QQQ Nears 52-week Low // Dragonfly Doji versus the Hammer // Between a Huge Rock and a Hard Place (FDN, SMH, IGV, SKYY, IGN, XBI, ITB, KRE) //// QQQ and IWM Lead Lower Last week's hammers remain on the weekly charts... READ MORE
The selling pressure this year was broad enough to push all but one of the Bullish Percent Indexes below 50%, and most below 30%. Note that StockCharts tracks the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) for the ten sectors, several broad market indexes and the Gold Miners Index. The image below comes... READ MORE
Hammers Still Hanging Around // The Weight of the Evidence is Clear // Correlations Rise in a Bear Market // Defensive Sector Performance in Prior Bear Market // Performance of Stock Alternatives in Prior Bear Market // Webinar Highlights //// Hammers Still Hanging Around There was no follow-through to last week's hammers as stocks... READ MORE
Among other ways, chartists can measure the risk appetite in the stock market by comparing the performance of the Equal-weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY). RSP represents the average stock in the S&P 500 and the performance of small... READ MORE
Big Trends Remain Down // IWM is Still the Dog // QQQ Battles 100 with a Hammer // XLK and XLY Show Some Relative Strength // Bonds Stumble as Stocks Firm // Dollar Holds Bullish Breakout // Gold Remains in Long-term Downtrend // Sugar Still Looks Sweet // Friday Food for Thought //// Big Trends Remain Down The bulk... READ MORE
Candles Show Firming, but Closes say Otherwise // Trading Counter-trend Patterns and Signals in Bear Markets // Using Retracements to Anticipate Counter-trend Peaks // Understanding ZigZag Extensions //// Candles Show Firming, but Closing Prices say Otherwise There is certainly a lot of chatter concerning Wednesday's intraday reversal. The S&P 500... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD) and the Silver ETF (SLV) continue to attract money as alternatives to stocks and other commodities. GLD and SLV were down rather sharply in 2015, but both are up year-to-date in 2016. GLD is up over 4% and SLV is up just over 2%. In contrast,... READ MORE
SPY Sets up Oversold Bounce // QQQ Firms with Spinning Top // What Would it take to Turn Bullish? // Finance and Tech Among the Downside Leaders // Webinar Highlights //// SPY Sets up Oversold Bounce // QQQ Firms with Spinning Top // What Would it take to Turn Bullish? // Finance and Tech Among the Downside Leaders... READ MORE
Chartists can use the percentage of stocks above the 200-day EMA to rank the sectors based on component trends. Using this breadth indicator, we can separate the weak sectors from the strong and get a good idea of the current market environment. I am working under the assumption that a... READ MORE
Finding Negative Correlations // Major Indices Remain in Bear Mode // New Lows Surge as Selling Expands // Bond ETFs Extend Support Bounce // Dollar Stalls after Breakout // Yen Traces out Rounding Bottom // Gold Forms Short-term Bull Flag // Friday Food for Thought //// Finding Negative Correlations Stocks were hammered again on Friday morning as the... READ MORE
High Beta Stocks Versus High Quality Stocks // Equal-weight versus Large-caps // Small-caps versus Mega-caps // Charting the Economy with Four ETFs // Junk versus Investment Grade and Treasuries // TED Spread Surges // Charting the Financial Stress Index // Conclusions //// Introduction Measuring the risk appetite in the financial markets can help investors with their portfolio allocations.... READ MORE
The year is young, but we are already seeing money move from relative risk (stocks) to relative safety (bonds). The PerfChart below shows the performance for ten intermarket ETFs year-to-date (12 January close). The histogram format makes it easy to spot the winners and the losers. The USO Oil Fund... READ MORE
Nasdaq 100 Still Stands Out // Bearish Environment for SPY // Tracking the ProShares Short S&P 500 // Webinar Highlights (Scans!) //// Chartists can get an overview of the "market" by charting the S&P 1500, S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, S&P Small-Cap... READ MORE
Stocks took it on the chin over the last two weeks with the S&P 500 falling over 7% in just seven trading sessions (30-Dec to 8-Jan). The depth of this decline forced the 50-day moving average down and it is currently below the 200-day moving average. This death-cross,... READ MORE
Large-caps Crack // S&P 500 Breaks 2K with Ease // IWM Hits 52-week Low // Using the Stochastic Oscillator to Gauge Price Levels // Small-caps and Mid-caps Lead New Low List // High-Low Percent Triggers for S&P 500 // IEF Holds Breakout as TLT Struggles // A Wild Ride for the Greenback // Watch... READ MORE
Don't Blame China for December // Sector Shift Defines Large-cap Breakdown // Industrials and Finance Leading Lower // XRT and ITB Break Down Further // Gold Miners ETF Bounces off Support // Treasuries Surge and Outperform //// Don't Blame China for December Stocks extended their 2016 plunge with further losses early Thursday.... READ MORE
Not many stocks are currently up year to date and those that are show good relative strength in the face of broad selling pressure. Of the 1500 stocks that make up the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P Small-Cap 600, I count around... READ MORE
A Tale of Two S&P 500 Indices // The Last Three Sectors Standing // Sector Breadth Tilts Bearish // Index High-Low Indicators Remain Split // Short-term Bullish Signal for Dollar // Treasury Trading Turns Dull // Webinar Video //// The easiest way to visualize the current split in the market is by comparing the S&... READ MORE
Stocks were hit hard on the open of the first trading day of 2016 with the vast majority falling, and falling sharply. There were a few pockets of strength and chartists can find these using the tables on the home page (midway down). The screenshot, which was taken around 9:... READ MORE
Once again, we have small-caps and mid-caps breaking down and weighing on the market. This is nothing new because the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) and S&P MidCap SPDR (MDY) have been lagging the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) for the last six... READ MORE
Depending on how you measure it, the stock market was up, down or flat in 2015. It also depends on what you call the stock market. Is it the S&P 500, S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index, the Dow, the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq? Truth be told, it... READ MORE
2015 has been about as mixed as a market can get. This split market can be seen by looking at two versions of the S&P 500. The Large-cap S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is up around 2.5% over the past year and the Equal-weight S&... READ MORE
Monthly Trend Indicators for S&P 500 // Key Levels to Watch in 2016 ($NDX, $SPX, $MID, $SML) // The 10-yr Yield Targets 3% // Euro Eyes Parity // Gold Aims for 1000 // Webinar Topics, ETFs and Stocks //// Today's commentary and webinar will use long-term charts to extrapolate some trends that... READ MORE
This is just a short update for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY). I will post a 2016 preview later today using monthly charts to extrapolate some bigger trends at work. The daily and weekly trend indicators are bullish for both SPY and... READ MORE