Major index ETFs Maintain Short-term Uptrends // Small and Mid Caps Show Relative Strength // Sentiment is Quite Bearish // Credit Conditions are Improving (JNK, LQD, TLT) // Keep an Eye on Safe Haven Assets (GLD,FXY,TLT) // Relative Weakness in Finance Sector Remains a Concern //// Major index ETFs Maintain Short-term Uptrends... READ MORE
The chart for the US Dollar ETF (UUP) is bit of a mess, but I think the overall trend is up and the US-German yield differential looks poised to move higher. The main chart window shows UUP hitting a multi-month high with the October-November surge. The ETF... READ MORE
Breadth Thrust Falls Short // Setting a Potential Reversal Zone // 3 Keys to Short-term Uptrend // Bearish PPO Setups // Confirming the Short-term Trend with Breadth // XLK and XLY Tests Falling 200-day // XLE Remains the Weakest // XLP Forms Outside Reversal //// Breadth Thrust Falls Short We are still in a bear... READ MORE
A Most Violent Range // SPY is first to Clear Prior High // Watching for the Bullish Breadth Thrust // S&P 500 Leads High-Low Percent // Signal Pecking Order // Following Crude and Junk // Consumer Discretionary and Industrials Come Alive // Finance and Energy Remain Laggards // Friday Food for Thought //// A Most Violent... READ MORE
Setting Short-term Support for the big 3 // Short-term Breadth Remains Bullish // Next Two Days Could Hold the Key for Breadth // Equal-weight, Small-caps and Mid-caps Take the Lead // Consumer Discretionary and Retail Outperform // Junk Bonds Get a Bounce // Bonds, Gold and the Yen // Rising Wedges in... READ MORE
Five stocks dominate the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and traders should keep a close eye on these when trading or investing in QQQ. Apple (10.97%), Alphabet (9.34%), Microsoft (8.5%), Amazon (5.39%) and Facebook (4.98%) account for almost 40% of QQQ. After Facebook, the next biggest... READ MORE
SPY Hits Moment of Truth // %Above 20-day EMA Becomes Overbought // Oil is Still in a Downtrend // Reviewing the PPO Strategy // Reconciling the PPO with the Price Chart // Webinar Preview SPY Hits Moment of Truth It was another day and another gap as SPY closed at its highest level since... READ MORE
The S&P 500 is setting up for its first test as it nears resistance in the 1950 area. The chart below shows the index below the falling 200-day SMA and the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. The overall trend here is clearly down, but... READ MORE
Breadth Surge Falls Short of Bullish Signal // Another Gap to Mind // Stocks of Interest (CHKP, FB, SYK, UNH) //// The long-term evidence remains bearish, but the short-term evidence turned bullish with the reversals and gaps in mid February. As noted in Friday's commentary, I use a three-... READ MORE
It has been a rough year for most of the stock market with seven of the nine sector SPDRs down year-to-date. The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) is up .69% and the Utilities SPDR (XLU) is up a whopping 6.75%. Among the seven negative sectors, the Industrials SPDR... READ MORE
Three Prong Approach // Major Index Trends Remain Down // Breadth Indicators remain Net Bearish // Some Risk Indicators Stabilize, but have yet to Turn Up // Staples and Utilities Still Holding Up // XLP Struggles since Market Peak // XLU Benefits from Two Negative Correlations // A Bounce within a Downtrend for XLU // XLK Battles Support... READ MORE
Putting the 3-day Surge into Perspective // The Concept of the Zweig Breadth Thrust // Don’t forget Nasdaq Stocks // A Weight of the Evidence Approach to Breadth Thrusts // Measuring Money Flow Thrusts with AD Volume Percent // Final Confirmation with High-Low Percent // The Bottom Line //// Putting the 3-day Surge... READ MORE
Taiwan Semiconductor is breaking out of a bullish pattern with good volume and the stock is showing relative strength. The price chart shows a cup-with-handle forming from December to mid-February. This is a bullish continuation pattern that was popularized by William O'Neil. There are three... READ MORE
SPY Heads for First Retracement // A Look at the 2011 Double Bottom Bounce // QQQ Forges an Island Reversal // Energy, Materials and Industrials Lead Short-term Bounce // Charting the Key Stocks in XLE, XLB and XLI // XOM, CVX, SLB, DD, DOW, MON, GE, HON, MMM //// Mind the Gaps SPY followed through... READ MORE
Keep the Long-term Trends in Mind // A Candlestick Reversal for SPY // XLP Triggers Bullish PPO Signal // Brent versus WTI // Webinar Preview //// Keep the Long-term Trends in Mind The long-term trends are down for SPY, QQQ and IWM, but a short-term reversal pattern last week and a... READ MORE
52-week Lows Reinforce Downtrends // Downtrends in Five Key Asian Markets // Italy and Spain Lead Europe to New Lows // Lower Lows all Around in the US // Using the %Above 50-day EMA to Gauge Participation // Using the %Above 50-day EMA to Rank Performance // Friday Food for Thought 52-week... READ MORE
Trend Trumps All Else // Forget about Support Levels in a Downtrend // Oversold Can Become Even More Oversold // Elevator Down Stairs Higher // Few Places to Hide // Correlations Rise in a Bear Market // Cash is a Real Position // A Penny Saved is Worth more Than a Penny Earned //// Stocks are getting slammed... READ MORE
Chevron (CVX) is a long-term downtrend and looks vulnerable to another leg lower. The price chart shows CVX trading below the falling 200-day moving average and below the 50-day moving average. Also notice that the 50-day is below the 200-day. These relationships indicate that the... READ MORE
Before looking at the short-term situation for SPY, QQQ and IWM, let's review the bigger trends using the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. Some things are open for debate in the stock market, but I don't think there is much debate on the... READ MORE
Trend is Not Everything, it's... // Those Pesky Hammers // New Lows in Key Sectors // Even Healthcare is not Healthy // Long-term Laggards Become Short-term Leaders // Staples Start Feeling the Heat //// Trend is Not Everything, it's... If Vince Lombardi were a trend follower, he would probably say:... READ MORE
There are nine sectors in the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and their weights range from 2.82% (materials) to 20.17% (technology). The technology sector is around seven times bigger than the materials sector and this means that not all sectors affect the S&P 500 the... READ MORE
After sharp declines the first two weeks of the year, the stock market turned into one mixed up beast the last three weeks. The PerfChart below shows three-week performance for the seven major index ETFs. All seven were down 6+ percent the first two weeks of the year, but... READ MORE
Even Consumer Staples are Under Pressure // Bulk of the Evidence is Bearish // Stocks Stall within Downtrends // Breadth Indicators Remain Bearish // High Beta Stocks Continue to Underperform // T-Bond ETFs Extend Uptrends // Big Move in Gold and GDX, but Still No Uptrend // Dollar Negates Wedge Breakout // Yen Defies BoJ with Resistance... READ MORE
Wrong Sectors Leading // Key Industry Groups Lagging // Is the FORCE Bullish or Bearish? // Testing Wedge Support (SPY, QQQ, IWM) // Overview of the Nine Sector SPDRs // Oversold Bounces for Housing and Semis // Showing Patience with the Gold Miners ETF (and gold) //// Wrong Sectors Leading The stock market is in the midst... READ MORE
The US Dollar ETF (UUP) is getting whacked on Wednesday and breaking its January lows. The trading day is not over yet, but the Dollar is on pace for its biggest daily decline since early December. On the price chart below, notice how UUP fell sharply in early December and... READ MORE
Long-term Trend Trumps // Short-term Wedges Taking Shape // Key Ratio Charts Still Trending Lower // Smattering of New Highs // New Highs Concentrated in Three Groups // Relative and Absolute Uptrends // Webinar Highlights //// Long-term Trend Trumps Stocks firmed in mid January as the major index ETFs formed big hammers and we... READ MORE
It was a rough January for stocks, but CBS held up quite well and shows a bullish looking chart. On the price chart, CBS sports a classic surge-correct-breakout sequence. First, the stock advanced over 20% with a move from ~39 to ~52. Second, the stock corrected by retracing... READ MORE
Long-term Trends Versus Short-term Conditions // Analyzing the 2000 and 2007 Tops // Applying Recent History to Current Price Action // Three Positive Characteristics for Utilities // Yield Alternatives Shine // Bonds Gets Extended, but Still Bullish // First Target for Oil Bounce // Gold Hits Key Retracement Zone // Dollar Holds Breakout - Euro and Yen... READ MORE
Small-caps and Large-techs Lead Lower // SPY Fails to Follow Through // QQQ Nears 52-week Low // Dragonfly Doji versus the Hammer // Between a Huge Rock and a Hard Place (FDN, SMH, IGV, SKYY, IGN, XBI, ITB, KRE) //// QQQ and IWM Lead Lower Last week's hammers remain on... READ MORE
The selling pressure this year was broad enough to push all but one of the Bullish Percent Indexes below 50%, and most below 30%. Note that StockCharts tracks the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) for the ten sectors, several broad market indexes and the Gold Miners Index. The image below comes... READ MORE
Hammers Still Hanging Around // The Weight of the Evidence is Clear // Correlations Rise in a Bear Market // Defensive Sector Performance in Prior Bear Market // Performance of Stock Alternatives in Prior Bear Market // Webinar Highlights //// Hammers Still Hanging Around There was no follow-through to last week's hammers as... READ MORE
Among other ways, chartists can measure the risk appetite in the stock market by comparing the performance of the Equal-weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY). RSP represents the average stock in the S&P 500 and the performance of... READ MORE
Big Trends Remain Down // IWM is Still the Dog // QQQ Battles 100 with a Hammer // XLK and XLY Show Some Relative Strength // Bonds Stumble as Stocks Firm // Dollar Holds Bullish Breakout // Gold Remains in Long-term Downtrend // Sugar Still Looks Sweet // Friday Food for Thought //// Big Trends Remain Down The... READ MORE
Candles Show Firming, but Closes say Otherwise // Trading Counter-trend Patterns and Signals in Bear Markets // Using Retracements to Anticipate Counter-trend Peaks // Understanding ZigZag Extensions //// Candles Show Firming, but Closing Prices say Otherwise There is certainly a lot of chatter concerning Wednesday's intraday reversal. The S&... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD) and the Silver ETF (SLV) continue to attract money as alternatives to stocks and other commodities. GLD and SLV were down rather sharply in 2015, but both are up year-to-date in 2016. GLD is up over 4% and SLV is up just over 2%... READ MORE
SPY Sets up Oversold Bounce // QQQ Firms with Spinning Top // What Would it take to Turn Bullish? // Finance and Tech Among the Downside Leaders // Webinar Highlights //// SPY Sets up Oversold Bounce // QQQ Firms with Spinning Top // What Would it take to Turn Bullish? // Finance and Tech Among the Downside Leaders... READ MORE
Chartists can use the percentage of stocks above the 200-day EMA to rank the sectors based on component trends. Using this breadth indicator, we can separate the weak sectors from the strong and get a good idea of the current market environment. I am working under the assumption that... READ MORE
Finding Negative Correlations // Major Indices Remain in Bear Mode // New Lows Surge as Selling Expands // Bond ETFs Extend Support Bounce // Dollar Stalls after Breakout // Yen Traces out Rounding Bottom // Gold Forms Short-term Bull Flag // Friday Food for Thought //// Finding Negative Correlations Stocks were hammered again on Friday morning as... READ MORE
High Beta Stocks Versus High Quality Stocks // Equal-weight versus Large-caps // Small-caps versus Mega-caps // Charting the Economy with Four ETFs // Junk versus Investment Grade and Treasuries // TED Spread Surges // Charting the Financial Stress Index // Conclusions //// Introduction Measuring the risk appetite in the financial markets can help investors... READ MORE
The year is young, but we are already seeing money move from relative risk (stocks) to relative safety (bonds). The PerfChart below shows the performance for ten intermarket ETFs year-to-date (12 January close). The histogram format makes it easy to spot the winners and the losers. The USO... READ MORE