Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill


Arthur is Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focused primarily on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within and setting key price levels has made him an industry-leading technician. Learn More 

Archived News

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XLY Breadth Indicator Forms Bearish Divergence

XLY Breadth Indicator Forms Bearish Divergence

The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is perhaps the single most important sector in the stock market because it is the most economically sensitive sector. Industry groups in this sector include retail, restaurants, autos, media and home construction. XLY is weighted by market cap and reflects the performance of the large-caps...   READ MORE 

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SPY Moves into Gap - USO Holds Break

SPY Moves into Gap - USO Holds Break

Stocks were mostly lower on Tuesday. The S&P 500 opened lower, stalled for a few hours and then moved lower again in the final hour. Large-caps led the way, while small-caps fell fractionally and showed relative strength again. Eight of the nine sector SPDRs were down with the...   READ MORE 

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SPY Surges off Support - IWM Leads - GLD Breaks

SPY Surges off Support - IWM Leads - GLD Breaks

Stocks surged with a broad-based rally that lifted most boats. The major index ETFs were up over 1% with the Dow Diamonds (+1.46%) leading. All sector SPDRs were up over 1% with the Energy SPDR (+2.15%) leading. All small-caps sector ETFs were up with the SmallCap Consumer Staples...   READ MORE 

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SPY Hits Range Support - Dollar Hits Key Retracement

SPY Hits Range Support - Dollar Hits Key Retracement

Stocks got slammed on Tuesday-Wednesday and firmed on Thursday-Friday. The S&P 500 fell from the 2110 area to the 2050 area and then moved into a rather tight trading range in the 2060 area. The resolution of this trading range could provide the next short-term signal. Either another...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

I am on the road Thursday-Friday so this update will be brief. All the charts have been updated. For what it is worth, I am attending the MTA symposium in New York. The bulk of the short-term evidence turned bearish with Wednesday's decline and remains bearish. The bigger...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Stocks were hit with broad selling pressure and fell sharply on Wednesday. QQQ and IWM led the way lower with 2+ percent declines. Eight of the nine sectors were down with techs leading the way. Energy stocks bucked the selling pressure as crude bounced. Techs were hit with heavy selling...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Trading was mixed again on Tuesday. Selling pressure hit SPY, QQQ and MDY, but IJR and IWM finished slightly positive. The finance and utilities sectors led the way lower. The Home Construction iShares (ITB) and Home Builders SPDR (XHB) bucked the selling pressure and finished with nice gains. The Retail...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Stocks traded flat most of the day on Monday and then got hit with some selling pressure in the final ten minutes and the major index ETFs closed slightly lower. The sectors were mixed with some modest selling pressure hitting the Industrials SPDR (XLI) and the Finance SPDR (XLF). The...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Stocks finished the week strong with QQQ, MDY and IWM leading the way. Large-caps also finished strong as the Dollar fell. Eight of the nine sectors finished higher. The Materials SPDR (XLB) was the only sector to finish lower on the week and show relative weakness. Regional Banks showed relative...   READ MORE 

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Utilities Get their Mojo Back

Utilities Get their Mojo Back

It was a big week for Treasury bonds, the 10-YR Treasury Yield and the Utilities SPDR. XLU fell sharply as yields surged in February, but rebounded this week as Treasury yields fell. Overall, the big trend for XLU appears to be up with a series of higher highs and higher...   READ MORE 

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A Tweet-Worthy Island Reversal and Squeeze

A Tweet-Worthy Island Reversal and Squeeze

Even though the pattern is a bit big, the gaps fit and it looks like Twitter (TWTR) traced out a large island reversal from late October to early February. The stock gapped below 45, traded below this gap for a few months and then gapped above 45. The result is...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Stocks were mixed on Thursday. QQQ and IWM closed fractionally higher, but SPY and DIA edged lower. Finance weighed on the market as the Finance SPDR (XLF) lost .93%. The Materials SPDR (XLB) and Energy SPDR (XLE) were also weak with declines greater than 1.5%. Pretty much anything oil-related...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Is it volatile enough for ya? The S&P 500 fell to the 2062 area in the early afternoon (down around 14 points) and then shot higher with a move above 2105. The move from low to high was around 45 points and the index closed up 1.22%...   READ MORE 

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The Two Strongest Sectors in March Are....

The Two Strongest Sectors in March Are....

There are several ways to measure relative performance here at StockCharts. Chartists can use ratio charts (XLF:SPY), the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) or Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs). Chartists can also compare the respective price charts. The chart below shows closing prices for the HealthCare SPDR (XLV), Finance SPDR (XLF)...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday with large-caps closing lower and small-caps edging higher. Eight of the nine sector SPDRs were down with materials falling 1.11%. Energy shares were also weak. The Home Construction iShares (ITB) fell after housing starts disappointed, but ITB remains in an uptrend overall. Gold fell...   READ MORE 

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SPY Gets a Break Out - USO Sinks to New Lows

SPY Gets a Break Out - USO Sinks to New Lows

Stocks got their mojo back as the S&P 500 opened strong, stayed strong and finished at the high of the day. The large-cap indices led the move with 1+ percent gains. Small-caps lagged as IWM gained only .59%.  Seven of the nine sectors were strong. Energy stocks were...   READ MORE 

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McClellan Oscillators Remain Negative

McClellan Oscillators Remain Negative

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) turned negative on March 4th and moved below -25 on March 6th, while the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator ($NAMO) also turned negative on March 4th, but did not move below -25 until March 10th (red arrows). As these charts show, chartists can use crosses of the...   READ MORE 

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IWM Holds Breakout, SPY Backs Off and TLT Hits Moment of Truth

IWM Holds Breakout, SPY Backs Off and TLT Hits Moment of Truth

It was a very mixed week for stocks as QQQ lost around 2% and IWM gained 1.19%. Small-caps continue to lead in relative strength this year. A strong Dollar is helping the small-cap cause and hurting big multinationals. Renewed strength in the finance sector is also helping small-caps. Keep...   READ MORE 

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IWM Gets Breakout and Leads - QQQ Lags

IWM Gets Breakout and Leads - QQQ Lags

Stocks turned it around on Thursday with a strong open and strong close. The S&P 500 surged above 2055 on the open, held this surge and worked its way above 2065 by the close. This is positive price action, but the index remains well below Monday's...   READ MORE 

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An Island Reversal for S&P MidCap SPDR

An Island Reversal for S&P MidCap SPDR

The S&P MidCap SPDR (MDY) fell to broken resistance with a gap down on Tuesday, firmed on Wednesday and gapped up on Thursday morning. The two gaps created a price "island" on Tuesday-Wednesday and an island reversal over the last four days. Notice that this island...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Trading was very mixed on Wall Street. Large-caps were under selling pressure as the Dollar surged to new highs yet again. SPY lost .23% on the day and the US Dollar ETF (UUP) surged 1.11%. Small-caps attracted some buying interest because they are largely immune to Dollar strength. The...   READ MORE 

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Healthcare Stocks and International ETFs Lead SCTR Gainers

Healthcare Stocks and International ETFs Lead SCTR Gainers

Chartists looking for movers and shakers can turn to the home page and check out the SCTR tables. Click the Top Up tab to see the big gainers (relative strength) and the Top Down tab to see the big losers (relative weakness). The screen shot below shows three stocks from...   READ MORE 

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Downtrends in Stocks, Oil, Gold and Bonds

Downtrends in Stocks, Oil, Gold and Bonds

Stocks were pummeled again on Tuesday with large-caps leading the way. Large-caps have more overseas exposure and are more affected by a strong Dollar. Small-caps held up better, but were not immune to selling pressure. All sectors moved lower with the Technology SPDR (XLK) and the Finance SPDR (XLF) falling...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

After a pummeling on Friday, stocks got an oversold bounce on Monday. But the bounce was not that impressive. QQQ gained .29%, SPY was up .41% and IWM gained .44%. Industrials led the sectors higher and energy lagged. Miners were hit hard as the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) plunged 3....   READ MORE 

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Stocks, Bonds, Oil and Gold Get Hit

Stocks, Bonds, Oil and Gold Get Hit

Selling pressure hit both stocks and bonds last week, but bonds more so than stocks. The S&P 500 fell around 1.5% for the week, which is not a drastic decline by any means. The 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) fell 4.5% last week and is down...   READ MORE 

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Stocks are Down, but Not Broken

Stocks are Down, but Not Broken

Stocks came under selling pressure in early March and this selling pressure intensified on Friday as the S&P 500 lost 1.42%, which was the biggest one day decline since late January. Even so, it is just one week of selling pressure and not enough to affect the...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Stocks meandered as traders treaded water ahead of today's employment report. The S&P 500 popped on the open, dropped around lunchtime and recovered in the afternoon. SPY closed with a fractional gain - and a yawn. Banks got a boost from some positive news on the...   READ MORE 

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Schwab Goes for a Break as Volume Indicator Leads

Schwab Goes for a Break as Volume Indicator Leads

Charles Schwab (SCHW) surged in February and then consolidated the last few weeks with an ascending triangle, which is a bullish continuation pattern. A breakout would signal a continuation of the prior advance and target a move to new highs. The indicator window shows the Accumulation Distribution Line (ACDL) hitting...   READ MORE 

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Short Term Trend Changes for Breadth, SPY and USO

Short Term Trend Changes for Breadth, SPY and USO

The S&P 500 did a repeat of Tuesday as the index opened weak with a plunge below 2090, quickly firmed and then recovered half the plunge with a bounce to the 2099 area. Selling pressure was pretty much across the board, but the declines were modest. Eight of...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Stocks were hit hard on the open as the S&P 500 fell below 2100 for the first time since February 20th. The index rebounded in the afternoon, but only recovered half of its morning loss. $SPX shows a series of lower lows and lower high the last five...   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Stocks got right back to their bullish ways with the S&P 500 surging above 2117. The index started with a pop above 2113, dipped below 2100 and finished with a late surge to close near the high of the day. The major index ETFs finished higher with modest...   READ MORE 

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Relative strength in Gasoline and Brent Lifts Two Refiners

Relative strength in Gasoline and Brent Lifts Two Refiners

WTI Crude ($WTIC) remains relatively subdued, but Brent ($BRENT) and Gasoline ($GASO) have been moving higher the last several weeks. The top chart shows gasoline relative to crude using a ratio plot ($GASO:$WTIC), and the second chart shows the BRENT-WTI spread ($BRENT-$WTIC). Both rose sharply from mid February...   READ MORE 

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Breadth Stalls, TLT Tests Breakout, GLD Hits Resistance

Breadth Stalls, TLT Tests Breakout, GLD Hits Resistance

Stocks actually showed some selling pressure last week, but it was relatively mild and only for a few days. The S&P 500 moved above 2119 on Tuesday afternoon and then worked its way lower the rest of the week. With a close below 2105, the index fell around...   READ MORE 

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IWM Perks Up, Dollar Breaks Out and TLT Tests Breakout

IWM Perks Up, Dollar Breaks Out and TLT Tests Breakout

It was a mixed day on Wall Street. Large-cap techs and small-caps led with modest gains. Mid-caps and the equal-weight S&P 500 lagged with modest losses. Energy got slammed again as oil fell. Small-cap performance was impressive because eight of the nine small-caps sector ETFs gained ground. The...   READ MORE 

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Euro ETF Gets a Continuation Signal

Euro ETF Gets a Continuation Signal

After consolidating for four weeks, the Euro ETF (FXE) is making a bid to continue its downtrend with a break below consolidation support. The bottom chart shows FXE forming a triangle after an extended decline. This is a consolidation within a downtrend and it represents a rest within that trend....   READ MORE 

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Breadth Stalls, TLT Holds Breakout and GLD Gets a Bounce

Breadth Stalls, TLT Holds Breakout and GLD Gets a Bounce

The S&P 500 moved to a new high during the session, but selling pressure hit in the afternoon and the index closed with a fractional loss. Wednesday's price action is the first negative price action we have seen in a while. The inability to hold a...   READ MORE 

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Intel Battles Gap and Relative Performance

Intel Battles Gap and Relative Performance

Intel is having a tough time this year. In fact, Intel (INTC) has been having a tough time since early December. The stock peaked around 37.5 in early December, formed a series of lower highs into mid January and then gapped down in late January. This gap-plunge broke support...   READ MORE 

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Some Risk Aversion Creeps in as Breadth Underwhelms

Some Risk Aversion Creeps in as Breadth Underwhelms

Stocks started the day strong as the S&P 500 surged above 2115 in the first ninety minutes. The index pulled back to the 2110 area around midday and rebounded in the afternoon to close above 2115. Once again, the gains for the day were modest across the board....   READ MORE 

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Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

Short-Term Trend, Breadth and Intermarket Analysis

There it is again! Stocks started the day weak as the S&P 500 dropped to the 2104 level in the first hour. After choppy trading most of the day, the index surged in the final hour and closed a whisker below 2110. Selling pressure remains muted and buying...   READ MORE 

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Bristol Myers Gets a Histogram Signal

Bristol Myers Gets a Histogram Signal

Bristol Myers (BMY) is making a bid to turn back up and bounce off support. On the price chart, the stock firmed above the December-January lows in February and moved to its highest level of the month today. The indicator window shows the MACD Histogram turning positive, which means MACD...   READ MORE