Overbought and oversold conditions are tricky because stocks can become overbought/oversold and remain overbought/oversold as the move continues. This is why traders need another indicator or chart signal for confirmation. Today's article to look at some recent overbought/oversold conditions and use the PPO for timing.... READ MORE
Breadth is holding up for Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) stocks, but deteriorating for S&P 500 index ($SPX) stocks. I view this as a warning sign for the stock market. Breadth indicators measure the degree of participation. For example, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day... READ MORE
Small-caps are leading the way lower and breadth indicators are showing some serious deterioration under the surface. Large-caps are holding up for now, but keep in mind that weakness in small-caps foreshadowed the January 2022 peak in SPY. Today's article will compare price charts for SPY and IWM,... READ MORE
Sometimes markets trend, sometimes they oscillate and sometimes they simply frustrate. I would venture to guess that trading since 2022 falls into the frustration basket. Trend following and momentum strategies are suffering because big moves are failing to extend and develop into trends. Mean-reversion strategies were doing well, but got... READ MORE
Chartists considering a trend-following strategy can use the Trend Composite to identify trend signals and then turn to the ATR Trailing Stop for an exit strategy. A bearish Trend Composite signal could also be used as an exit strategy, but these signals usually trigger later than the ATR Trailing Stop... READ MORE
Stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trading at or near new highs lead with clear uptrends. These are the names you'd want on your ChartLists or portfolio. You can find leaders by checking the list of 52-week highs or by using the StochClose indicator, which is part of the... READ MORE
The stock market has been a tough place for trend-following since January 2022, which is when the S&P 500 first triggered a bearish trend signal. The bearish signal in question is the humble 5/200 day SMA cross. There were whipsaws in the first quarter of 2022 and... READ MORE
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is a period of big swings and above average volatility. There were six swings of at least 10% from late January to early February 2023. Looking at other 12-14 month periods, this is the fourth most in the last 23 years. There were... READ MORE
Stocks went on a tear from late December to early February with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) advancing some 11% from low to high. SPY then pulled back last week with a 2.5% decline from the February 2 high to the 10-February 10 low. A pullback... READ MORE
Last week I featured the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) with a clear resistance level to beat. Even though the 2022 decline could be a correction after a big advance, the ETF is short of a breakout and trend reversal. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) also has a clear... READ MORE
The S&P 500 index has been trending lower since its peak in January 2022, but this decline could be a long correction after a massive advance. The pattern taking shape and the retracement amount is typical for corrections. Today's article highlights this setup and shows the... READ MORE
Trevor Lawrence put in a performance for the ages in the AFC Wild Card game on Saturday. Chapeaux! Lawrence started the game with four interceptions in the first half but kept on throwing and brought his team back for a big win. There are some lessons here that we can... READ MORE
The stock market has a long-term bullish bias and the monthly return metrics reflect this positive bias. Chartists looking for a seasonal edge can compare benchmark metrics with the monthly performance numbers. Months that outperform the benchmarks have a positive bias, while months that seriously underperform have a negative bias.... READ MORE
The SPDR S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (SPY) surged from mid-October to early December, but this advance was considered a counter-trend bounce within a bigger downtrend. And this week, SPY reversed its short-term uptrend and the bearish technical setup was similar to the last two reversals. First and foremost,... READ MORE
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) crossed its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the 173rd time since 2000 and the performance for this "signal" is not that great. Buying and selling the 200-day SMA cross produced a lower return than buy and hold. This cross, however,... READ MORE
2022 has been a tough market for trend-followers, but swing traders have been able to catch a few rides. Trend-followers are suffering because whipsaws are above average this year. A whipsaw occurs when an uptrend cannot extend after a bullish trend signal and the trade results in a loss. Before... READ MORE
Stocks surged this week with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) advancing over 5% and nearing its falling 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The big trend is still down because SPY recorded a 52-week low a month ago and a lower low from June to October. The ETF... READ MORE
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) moved to a new low from June to October 2022, but copper held up better with a higher low and broke short-term resistance with an outsized move this week. A breakout with an outsized move shows above-average strength and it looks like the... READ MORE
The seasonal patterns for October and yearend are quite positive, but seasonality is just one aspect of broad market analysis and the weight of the evidence remains bearish. The histogram below shows the seasonal patterns for the S&P 500 over the last twenty years. Five of the twelve... READ MORE
The pickings are extremely thin in the markets because the vast majority of groups are in downtrends. TrendInvestorPro tracks trend signals in 274 ETFs. This list include 170 stock-based ETFs, 18 fixed income ETFs, 17 commodity ETFs, 9 currency ETFs and 60 non-US ETFs. Only 14 (5.1%) of the... READ MORE
Technical analysts often scoff at the notion that a 20% decline marks a bear market. However, a look back shows that further losses are certainly possible after a 20% decline. Over the last 25 years, the last two bear markets started with declines in excess of 20% and the S&... READ MORE
Despite the bear market environment, a handful of stock-based ETFs were showing leadership with bullish Trend Composite signals. Representatives from dirty energy (XLE), clean energy (TAN) and utilities (XLU) were covered over the last few weeks and this article is a follow-up. These ETFs remain with bullish Trend Composite signals,... READ MORE
The broad market environment remains bearish, but one group stood out in early August and continues to stand out. The Solar Energy ETF (TAN) was featured on August 1st as the Trend Composite turned bullish and clean energy was featured as an emerging theme on August 5th. Clean energy ETFs... READ MORE
It has been a rough four weeks for stocks and oil, but the energy-related ETFs held up relatively well and remain in uptrends. The PerfChart below shows performance for SPY, oil, the DB Energy ETF (DBE) and five energy-related ETFs since August 16th, which is when SPY peaked. SPY is... READ MORE
The short-term trends for the big three are down (SPY, QQQ, IWM) and we are in a bear market. Over the last two weeks, the short-term trend (down) aligned with the long-term trend (down). This is a powerful combination that can lead to rising correlation among stocks. Note that downside... READ MORE
Traders can improve the odds of success by focusing on ETFs in leading uptrends. TrendInvestorPro identifies such ETFs with a table that shows Trend Composite signals and the 52-week range indicator. These ETFs are then singled out for chart analysis and we are featuring the DB Energy ETF (DBE) today.... READ MORE
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged to its falling 200-day SMA here in August and even edged above this key level intraday on Tuesday. Even though the ETF is close to crossing above the 200-day, chartists would be better off taking a step back to avoid a whipsaw.... READ MORE
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is in the midst of a strong advance since mid July as it became "overbought" on July 20th and remains overbought. Today's article will show how to measure overbought and oversold levels using StochClose, which is a version of... READ MORE
The Composite Breadth Model at TrendInvestorPro has been bearish since April 11th and remains bearish, which suggests that the current bounce in SPY is a counter-trend advance within a bigger downtrend. Also note that the 5-day SMA for SPY is below the falling 200-day SMA and the Trend Composite is... READ MORE
Led by its top two components, Enphase (ENPH) and Solar Edge (SEDG), the Solar Energy ETF (TAN) followed a bullish signal from the Trend Composite with a big breakout to confirm a large bullish reversal pattern. Let's start with the Trend Composite, which aggregates trend signals in five... READ MORE
Last week I wrote about the downtrend in SPY and showed a resistance/reversal zone based on broken supports and the 50% retracement line. SPY failed at this zone and moved sharply lower this past week. This is hardly surprising because the Market Regime is bearish and bearish outcomes are... READ MORE
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is in a long-term downtrend and the Composite Breadth Model at TrendInvestorPro is bearish. A bearish Market Regime is a dangerous combination for stocks. The S&P 500 is the most important benchmark for US stocks, while the Composite Breadth Model measures... READ MORE
There are two commodity ETFs with falling wedge patterns working. One falling wedge resulted in a deep pullback and the other in a shallow pullback. Either way, I view these falling wedges as corrections within uptrends and am watching for breakouts. This article will look at the deep pullback in... READ MORE
The DB Base Metals ETF (DBB) is reversing its downswing after becoming oversold within an uptrend. This analysis will cover the long-term trend using the chart and Trend Composite, the oversold conditions using the Momentum Composite and the short-term breakout over the last few days. DBB fell some 18% from... READ MORE
The bigger trend is one of the most important factors to consider when trading stocks or ETFs. We can use trend signals as part of a trend-following strategy or to dictate our trading bias. I look for bullish setups and pullback opportunities when the trend is up. When the trend... READ MORE
Sector PerfCharts provide clear performance snapshots of the market mood and the market mood is defensive. The PerfCharts below show the percentage change for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and the eleven sectors. These sectors can be divided into three groups: offensive sectors, defensive sectors and other. The... READ MORE
After a big surge in the second half of March, stocks fell back this week as the S&P 500 declined around 2%. This modest decline is warranted after the March surge, but it was not enough to push sentiment to an extreme. The AAII Bears are back above... READ MORE
Volatility is through the roof for many commodities and commodity-related ETFs, but this does not mean we have to abandon technical analysis and classic setups. High volatility does, however, imply higher risk and we probably need to give setups a little more wiggle room. The Palladium ETF (PALL) surged over... READ MORE
Several trading themes emerged over the past month and these themes could have legs. Russia invaded Ukraine a month ago and the broader market is significantly higher since the invasion. The Russell 2000 ETF is up 6.81%, the S&P 500 SPDR is 7.29% higher and the... READ MORE
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) surged 5.77% from Tuesday to Thursday and this was the biggest 3-day surge since the 6.07% advance on November 5th, 2020. This early November surge led to a breakout and the advance extended until January 2022. The current surge also shows... READ MORE