Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill


Arthur is Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focused primarily on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within and setting key price levels has made him an industry-leading technician. Learn More 

Archived News

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Correction Extends for Equal-Weight S&P 500 ETF

Correction Extends for Equal-Weight S&P 500 ETF

The July funk continues for stocks. After good gains on Friday, some selling pressure hit on Monday and the major index ETFs closed modestly lower. The Russell 2000 iShares fell .40% and the Nasdaq 100 ETF lost just .12% on the day. Eight of the nine sectors were down. The...   READ MORE 

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Narrowing Yield Spread Weighs on Regional Banks

Narrowing Yield Spread Weighs on Regional Banks

The Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) failed to hold its flag breakout and then broke support with a sharp decline this week. It would now appear that KRE formed a rising wedge that peaked below the January high. This week's wedge break signals a continuation of the prior decline...   READ MORE 

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Rough Week Leaves DIA the Last Man Standing

Rough Week Leaves DIA the Last Man Standing

Stocks came under selling pressure over the past week with small-caps bearing the brunt. The PerfChart below shows the performance for eight major index ETFs over the past week. Seven are down and only one is up. The Dow Diamonds (DIA) has the only gain. The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM)...   READ MORE 

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ITB Breaks Support - IWM Continues to Lead Lower

ITB Breaks Support - IWM Continues to Lead Lower

Stocks opened slightly lower and then slid as news reports suggested that the Malaysian airliner was shot down. There was a small bounce around midday and stocks again came under selling pressure in the afternoon. Small-caps led the way lower as IWM fell around 1.5%. All sectors were lower...   READ MORE 

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Charts: A Bull Flag, an Inverse HS and a Support Bounce

Charts: A Bull Flag, an Inverse HS and a Support Bounce

There are only three setups today because the pickings are slim during earnings season. Risk is always above average when a company reports earnings and I try to insure that the earnings report is at least a week away. Today, we have a semiconductor stock with a bull flag. Second,...   READ MORE 

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KRE Forms Outside Day - Dollar Holds Breakout

KRE Forms Outside Day - Dollar Holds Breakout

Stocks opened strong and then stalled. SPY and QQQ managed to hold their gains and close slightly higher. IWM did not and closed fractionally lower. Seven of the nine sector SDPRs were higher with technology, energy and materials leading the way. The Technology SPDR gained almost 1% with help from...   READ MORE 

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Stocks Get Whipsawed by Fed, but Uptrends Remain

Stocks Get Whipsawed by Fed, but Uptrends Remain

Stocks, gold, the Dollar and bonds got whipped around during congressional testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Stocks opened strong, took a deep dip and the recovered some of that dip with an afternoon advance. It is hard to read into price action driven by Fed comments and the overall...   READ MORE 

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A Rather Dull Advance for the S&P 500

A Rather Dull Advance for the S&P 500

The S&P 500 is up over 6% since mid April, but this advance has been about as boring as they get. Note that this key benchmark has not moved more than 1% since April 16th (hat tip crossingwallstreet.com). The old Wall Street adage, "never short a...   READ MORE 

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Chart Setups: APOL, FISV, JOY, SNPS, XRAY

Chart Setups: APOL, FISV, JOY, SNPS, XRAY

There are five setups today. First, we have an education provider with a break down. Second, there is a tech stock breaking out of a bullish continuation pattern. Third, we feature a mining equipment play with a bullish wedge taking shape. Fourth, there is another tech stock with an ascending...   READ MORE 

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XLU Breaks Flag Support - GLD Reverses Short-term Uptrend

XLU Breaks Flag Support - GLD Reverses Short-term Uptrend

Stocks started the day strong and then stalled as buying and selling pressure equalized. The major index ETFs finished with modest gains. Seven of the nine sectors were higher with technology, energy and finance leading. The utilities sector moved sharply lower with a 1+ percent loss. The chart below shows...   READ MORE 

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Solar Energy ETF Tests Key Moving Averages

Solar Energy ETF Tests Key Moving Averages

After a wedge breakout in late May, the Solar Energy ETF (TAN) is testing this breakout and two key moving averages in July. Notice how the 50-day and 200-day moving averages converge in the 40-41 area. TAN is currently above both and the 50-day is above the 200-day. The bias...   READ MORE 

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Transports Hold Up Well - SPY Bounces off First Support

Transports Hold Up Well - SPY Bounces off First Support

It was a rough week for stocks. Small-caps led the major index ETFs lower as IWM lost around 4%. The finance sector was relatively weak as XLF declined around 1.5% on the week. The Home Construction iShares and the Retail SPDR were two of the weakest industry group ETFs....   READ MORE 

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Intermarket PerfChart Shows Strange Happenings in July

Intermarket PerfChart Shows Strange Happenings in July

The intermarket PerfChart below shows July getting off to a rather strange start. SPY and QQQ are up slightly this month, but IWM is down sharply with a 2+ percent loss. Relative weakness in small-caps suggests that the equity market may be entering into a corrective period. Small-caps and momentum...   READ MORE 

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Alaska Air Bucks the Selling and Remains Strong

Alaska Air Bucks the Selling and Remains Strong

Alaska Air (ALK) fell sharply in early June, established support just above 46 and bounced off this support zone the last few days. This is impressive considering the selling pressure that hit the market this week. Notice the hollow, or white, candles. These form when the close is well above...   READ MORE 

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Semis Show Some Relative Weakness

Semis Show Some Relative Weakness

Stocks firmed after a sharp two day decline in small-caps and momentum names. Firmness could be fleeting because stock futures are down after hours. If the second shoe drops here, I would expect the momentum names and small-caps to lead the way lower again. While I do not think this...   READ MORE 

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Chart Setups: ACN, AEO, BSX, NEM, VIP

Chart Setups: ACN, AEO, BSX, NEM, VIP

There are five setups today. First, we have a tech stock with a pennant break down. Second, we have a teen apparel retailer with a falling wedge. Third, there is a medical device company trading within an extended correction. Fourth, we feature a gold stock poised to challenge range resistance....   READ MORE 

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Russell 2000 Seasonality Turns Bearish

Russell 2000 Seasonality Turns Bearish

The high-beta names (i.e. momentum stocks) got hammered again on Tuesday. The Russell 2000 iShares fell over 1%, the Internet ETF fell 3%, the Solar Energy ETF declined over 3.5% and the Biotech SPDR lost 3.77%. It is beginning to look a lot like March. Note that...   READ MORE 

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VIX Seasonality Shows a Strong Tendency in July

VIX Seasonality Shows a Strong Tendency in July

There are seasonal tendencies and then there are STRONG seasonal tendencies. Over the last 20 years, the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) has moved higher 80% of the time in the month of July. This follows the weakest month, June, which shows a rising VIX just 25% of...   READ MORE 

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Small-Caps and Energy Lead Market Lower

Small-Caps and Energy Lead Market Lower

After hitting new highs last week, stocks started this week with some selling pressure. Large-caps held up relatively well as SPY fell .76%. Small-caps and micro-caps bore the brunt of selling pressure as the Russell 2000 iShares and Russell MicroCap iShares fell more than 1.5% on the day. Six...   READ MORE 

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Chart Setups: ACH, CAKE, DE, GOGO, SNPS

Chart Setups: ACH, CAKE, DE, GOGO, SNPS

There are five setups today. First, we start with a Chinese aluminum stock that is surging off a key retracement. Second, we have a restaurateur stalling at a key retracement. Third, there is an equipment manufacturer with a triangle consolidation. Fourth, we feature an inflight internet provider with a breakdown...   READ MORE 

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Small-Cap AD Line Hits New High as Advance Broadens

Small-Cap AD Line Hits New High as Advance Broadens

Another week and another gain. Most of the major index ETFs moved to new highs again last week to affirm the uptrends. IWM hit a new high intraday, but has yet to close above the March high. The Russell MicroCap iShares (IWC) is still a few percentage points below its...   READ MORE 

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Consumer Discretionary and Tech Join the Leadership Circle

Consumer Discretionary and Tech Join the Leadership Circle

Relative weakness in the consumer discretionary sector was a concern a month ago, but not anymore. The first PerfChart shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), the Technology SPDR (XLK), the Energy SPDR (XLE) and the HealthCare SPDR (XLV) leading since June 3rd. XLY really came to life this past week...   READ MORE 

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A Rough Week for Utilities

A Rough Week for Utilities

It was a short week, but stocks moved higher with eight of the nine sectors gaining. As the PerfChart below shows, the consumer discretionary and technology sectors led with 2+ percent gains. The utilities sector was the lone loser with a 2.83% loss. Also notice that the consumer staples...   READ MORE 

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XLY Hits New High - TLT Fails to Hold Breakout

XLY Hits New High - TLT Fails to Hold Breakout

Stocks followed up Tuesday's gains with a mixed trading day on Wednesday. Small-caps and mid-caps came under selling pressure as MDY and IWM fell around .50%. Large-caps held on to their gains as SPY and QQQ finished fractionally higher. Indecisive trading the day before a three day weekend...   READ MORE 

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Shooting Star Takes Shape in Apollo $APOL

Shooting Star Takes Shape in Apollo $APOL

Apollo (APOL) hit resistance at broken support last week and then formed a shooting star this week. This shooting star represents a failed intraday rally. Notice how the stock surged to 32 on Tuesday and then fell to close near 31. This failure also occurred when the market rallied on...   READ MORE 

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Small-Caps and Large Tech Lead Market to New Highs

Small-Caps and Large Tech Lead Market to New Highs

Stocks caught a big bid on Tuesday with small-caps and big techs leading the way. IWM and QQQ gained over 1%. The gains were not that excessive and this market advance continues to be quite incremental. In other words, the daily gains are not excessive, such as 2-3%, but the...   READ MORE 

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Chart Setups: BRO, KSU NOR, NUS, PMCS

Chart Setups: BRO, KSU NOR, NUS, PMCS

There are five setups today. First, we start with an insurance stock that formed a bullish consolidation after a breakout. Next up is a railroad with a triangle after a breakout. The third stock is a small aluminum company with a recent wedge breakout. Fourth, we feature a multi-level marketing...   READ MORE 

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XME and GLD Break Out of Continuation Patterns

XME and GLD Break Out of Continuation Patterns

Stocks were again mixed on Monday. Large-caps lagged as the Dow Diamonds and S&P 500 SPDR closed fractionally lower. Small-caps led as the Russell 2000 iShares closed near last week's high. Techs also showed some relative strength as the Nasdaq 100 ETF hit another new high....   READ MORE 

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Michael Kors Weighs on Retailers with Break Down

Michael Kors Weighs on Retailers with Break Down

Michael Kors (KORS) led the market in February with a massive gap and new high, but the stock has fallen on hard time in June with a trend line break and relative breakdown. On the price chart, KORS broke the internal trend line and support zone with a sharp decline...   READ MORE 

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QQQ Leads with New High - GLD Forms High and Tight Flag

QQQ Leads with New High - GLD Forms High and Tight Flag

Stocks were hit with bouts of selling pressure on Tuesday afternoon and Thursday morning, but finished the week on a strong note. Overall, the major index ETFs were mixed for the week. QQQ gained 1.06%, SPY was down .06% and IWM rose .08%. The sectors were also mixed with...   READ MORE 

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IGN Forms Flag - TLT Extends Higher

IGN Forms Flag - TLT Extends Higher

Stocks were mixed on Thursday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF edging higher (.05%) and the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) edging lower (-.07%). Five sector SPDRs were up and four were down. Finance and consumer staples led the way lower with small losses. Utilities, healthcare and energy led...   READ MORE 

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Traders are Developing a Sweet Tooth for this ETF

Traders are Developing a Sweet Tooth for this ETF

Spot Sugar ($SUGAR) has been in a downtrend for years, but this commodity may be turning the corner with a higher low and falling wedge. The chart below shows the Sugar ETN (SGG) surging in February and then correcting with a falling wedge the last 3-4 months. The ETF reversed...   READ MORE 

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KRE Forms Continuation Pattern as Stocks Bounce

KRE Forms Continuation Pattern as Stocks Bounce

After an outside day and weak close on Tuesday, stocks rebounded on Wednesday and the major index ETFs closed modestly higher. Small-caps led the way lower on Tuesday and the way higher on Wednesday. Eight of the nine sectors were up with consumer discretionary, healthcare, materials and energy leading. Consumer...   READ MORE 

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Chart Setups: AMCC, BMY, DKS, FISV, KEY, L

Chart Setups: AMCC, BMY, DKS, FISV, KEY, L

There are six setups today. First, we start tech stock that formed a high-tight flag. Second, there is a big pharma stock that is lagging the group, but formed a breakaway gap on big volume. Third, we have a bottom pick play for a sporting good store. Fourth, there is...   READ MORE 

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CBS and FB Lead Most Actives, while XRX and PWB Show Big Relative Moves

CBS and FB Lead Most Actives, while XRX and PWB Show Big Relative Moves

Chartists can find stocks and ETFs on the move using the six tables in the middle of the home page. The image below shows four of these tables: most active Nasdaq and NYSE stocks, large-cap SCTR movers and SCTR movers for ETFs. Notice that Facebook and CBS are up strong...   READ MORE 

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Industrials and Consumer Discretionary Sectors Weaken

Industrials and Consumer Discretionary Sectors Weaken

Stocks started the day strong, but peaked near midday and fell in the afternoon. The major index ETFs formed outside days with a bearish bias. This means Tuesday's high-low range was outside Monday's high-low range and Tuesday's close was weak. One day does not...   READ MORE 

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Sector MarketCarpet Turns Mostly Red, but Two Sectors Stay Green

Sector MarketCarpet Turns Mostly Red, but Two Sectors Stay Green

The MarketCarpet for the nine S&P sectors turned mostly red on Tuesday with seven sectors down and just two up. Utilities and healthCare were the only two holding on to their gains in the late afternoon. Notice that energy is the darkest red. This means stocks in this...   READ MORE 

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Chart Setups: ASEI, BA, GMED, MENT, NTAP

Chart Setups: ASEI, BA, GMED, MENT, NTAP

There are five setups today. First, we start with an engineering concern that formed a triangle after a big surge. Second, there is a major aircraft maker with a gap and support break. Third, we have a healthcare stock with a bullish breakout in the works. Fourth, there is a...   READ MORE 

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TLT Holds Wedge Break - UUP Hits Support Zone

TLT Holds Wedge Break - UUP Hits Support Zone

The energizer bunny continues to power the stock market higher. Stocks have been considered overbought several times over the last few weeks, but the uptrend simply trumps everything. Small-caps led the advance last week as the Russell 2000 iShares surged 2.3%. All sectors were up with energy and utilities...   READ MORE 

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Tibco Establishes Support with Rare Red Hollow Candle

Tibco Establishes Support with Rare Red Hollow Candle

Tibco Software (TIBX) has been all over the place the last five weeks. The stock gapped up in late May, gapped down in early June, bounced to 21 and then gapped down again last Friday. Despite all this volatility, the stock may be at support now. Notice that a rare...   READ MORE