Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill


Arthur is Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focused primarily on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within and setting key price levels has made him an industry-leading technician. Learn More 

Archived News

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TLT Holds Breakout Ahead of Employment Report

TLT Holds Breakout Ahead of Employment Report

Stocks treaded water with mixed trading on Monday. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) edged higher with a .22% gain, while the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) edged lower with a .20% loss. The sectors were mixed with the Technology SPDR (XLK) gaining .54% and the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) loosing .51%. Homebuilders...   READ MORE 

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DITC Biotech SPDR Confirms Bearish Engulfing Pattern

DITC Biotech SPDR Confirms Bearish Engulfing Pattern

A short-term breakdown is in the works for the Biotech SPDR. The ETF returned to broken support and this zone turned into resistance as a bearish engulfing formed on Friday. The ETF followed up this reversal pattern with a trend line break on high volume. This break signals a...   READ MORE 

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QQQ Surges and TLT Breaks Out Ahead of Key Report

QQQ Surges and TLT Breaks Out Ahead of Key Report

The bull stampede continued last week as the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) led the major index ETFs to new highs. All sectors were higher last week with the Finance SPDR (XLF) and Energy SPDR (XLE) leading the charge. Finance is the big story because this sector went from relative weakness...   READ MORE 

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Financials Lead Stock Market to New Highs

Financials Lead Stock Market to New Highs

Stocks went on a tear the last two weeks with all indices and sectors moving higher. In the past week, we saw fresh 52-week highs in the Russell 2000 (small-caps), Nasdaq (techs) and the S&P 500 (broader market). These new highs affirm the long-term uptrends...   READ MORE 

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Consumer Discretionary and Tech Lag on Equal Weight PerfChart

Consumer Discretionary and Tech Lag on Equal Weight PerfChart

The S&P Equal Weight ETF (RSP) is up some 1.81% over the past month, but the Equal-weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD) and Equal-weight Technology ETF (RYT) are up much less. These two "offensive sectors" are underperforming the broader market. In contrast, the Equal-...   READ MORE 

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Indicator Summary Supports Long-Term Uptrend in Stocks

Indicator Summary Supports Long-Term Uptrend in Stocks

There are some minor divergences brewing, but the overall picture remains positive for stocks. The market is clearly strong as four of the five major index ETFs surged to new highs this week. The Dow SPDR (DIA) is the lone laggard because it remains below its September high. Breadth remains...   READ MORE 

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TLT Breaks Flag Resistance as GLD Surges to Resistance

TLT Breaks Flag Resistance as GLD Surges to Resistance

Stocks continued their march higher with interest rate sensitive issues leading the charge. The Utilities SPDR (XLU) led the sectors higher with a 1.62% gain and the Home Construction iShares (ITB) surged above the mid September trend line. The 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (TLT) broke falling flag resistance...   READ MORE 

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IBM Weighs on Dow, Tech Sector and Computer Services Group

IBM Weighs on Dow, Tech Sector and Computer Services Group

IBM, also known as big blue, is weighing on the market with a gap down and 52-week low. This is not the first sign of weakness though. Notice that the stock peaked way back in March and its 50-day crossed below its 200-day in early August. The...   READ MORE 

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SPY Hits New High as TLT Forms Bull Flag

SPY Hits New High as TLT Forms Bull Flag

The government reopened as congress passed a deal and the president signed off. That is the good news. The bad news is that this process will repeat itself early next year. This would be funny, if it weren't so sad. Stocks, however, don't seem to care...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: ALTR, CHRW, JNPR, LEN, WY

Charts of Interest: ALTR, CHRW, JNPR, LEN, WY

ALTR Breaks Channel Resistance. CHRW Hits Resistance at Gap. Plus JNPR, LEN and WY Video is at top. Individual charts are below. **This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities** Click here for iPad/...   READ MORE 

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Finance SPDR Leads Market Higher as Price Relative Turns Up

Finance SPDR Leads Market Higher as Price Relative Turns Up

The Finance SPDR (XLF) led the market higher with a 1.83% surge on Wednesday. With this move, XLF is challenging triangle resistance and the September high. A breakout would signal a continuation of the bigger uptrend and argue for new highs. The indicator window shows the price relative (XLF:...   READ MORE 

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Nasdaq 100 High-Low Percent Surges as New Highs Expand

Nasdaq 100 High-Low Percent Surges as New Highs Expand

Despite a few negative dips, Nasdaq 100 High-Low Percent ($NDXHLP) has been mostly positive throughout 2013. The red arrows show the brief, and shallow, dips into positive territory. Last week's dip did not last long as High-Low Percent surged to 15% this week. A downtrend is...   READ MORE 

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XSD, QQQ and IWM Hit New Highs and Lead

XSD, QQQ and IWM Hit New Highs and Lead

The on-off deal in Washington DC was off on the open and back on by the close. Accordingly, stocks opened weak and closed strong with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) hitting new highs. This means small-caps and big techs are showing relative strength,...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: AMD, PENN, PFE, RDC, RF, STI

Charts of Interest: AMD, PENN, PFE, RDC, RF, STI

AMD Challenges Key Level with Volume. PENN Forms Continuation Pattern after Breakout. Plus PFE, RDC, RF, STI Video is at top. Individual charts are below. **This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities** Click...   READ MORE 

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SPY Holds the Gap, but Defensive Sectors Lead

SPY Holds the Gap, but Defensive Sectors Lead

Signs of hope dissipated over the weekend as the war of words took over in Washington. It is hard to say what is a negotiating ploy and what it substantive. One this seems for sure though: this is going to go down to the wire and any deal will likely...   READ MORE 

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Several Oil Equipment & Services Stocks Hit New Highs

Several Oil Equipment & Services Stocks Hit New Highs

The Oil Equipment & Services industry was hot on Monday with several stocks hitting new highs. Chartists can find a list of new highs on the pre-defined scans page, which is updated throughout the trading day. This list can be sorted by sector or industry group by clicking the...   READ MORE 

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SCTR Surges above 50 for Vulcan Materials

SCTR Surges above 50 for Vulcan Materials

The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) for Vulcan Materials surged above 50 to record the second biggest SCTR gain among S&P 500 stocks. On the price chart, the stock broke resistance with the Septmeber surge and broken resistance turned support as a bull flag formed. A break above flag...   READ MORE 

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Indicator Summary Remains Positive Overall

Indicator Summary Remains Positive Overall

Stocks pulled back in early October, but the long-term uptrends were never in jeopardy and the indicator summary stayed green the entire time. Net New Highs for the Nasdaq and NYSE dipped to the zero line earlier this week, but bounced with Thursday's stock market surge. The...   READ MORE 

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IWM and QQQ Surge above Broken Support

IWM and QQQ Surge above Broken Support

Stocks surged on hopes of a deal in Washington. Is this hope justified or will we be back at a stalemate in a few days? Should traders fade the rally or does this rally have legs? Personally, I think this rally is based on short covering and there is little...   READ MORE 

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Finance Sector Lights Up Market Carpet with Green

Finance Sector Lights Up Market Carpet with Green

The finance sector is leading Thursday's market rebound with all stocks in the sector showing gains in early trading. The image below shows the market carpet for the finance sector and all components are green today. The top five are up over 3% and even the bottom five...   READ MORE 

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GLD Fails at First Resistance - TLT Extends Falling Flag

GLD Fails at First Resistance - TLT Extends Falling Flag

Stocks started the day weak, but caught a lunchtime bid and bounced off their morning lows. There was no follow through to this bounce as the major index ETFs fell back in the final hour and ended the day mixed. Large-caps gained as the Dow SPDR (DIA) and S&...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: AAPL, APH, CL, CVS, FLO, TEVA

Charts of Interest: AAPL, APH, CL, CVS, FLO, TEVA

AAPL Forms Bullish Continuation Pattern. APH Firms at Support with Good Volume. Plus CL, CVS, FLO, TEVA Video is at top. Individual charts are below. **This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities** Click...   READ MORE 

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High Flyers Fall Hard as Traders Shun Risk

High Flyers Fall Hard as Traders Shun Risk

After recording new highs just a few weeks ago, the darlings of the stock market were hit hard as traders sold risk and sought relative safety. LinkedIn (LKND), Tesla (TSLA), Yelp (YELP) and RackSpace (RAX) fell more than 9% in the last five days. All eight stocks in the PerfChart...   READ MORE 

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IWM and QQQ Break Short-Term Support

IWM and QQQ Break Short-Term Support

Stocks took it on the chin with broad-based selling pressure on Tuesday. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) led the way and broke short-term support levels. This means IWM and QQQ have joined SPY and DIA with downtrends. The Home Construction iShares (ITB) led...   READ MORE 

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Utilities SPDR Battles Key Moving Average

Utilities SPDR Battles Key Moving Average

The Utilities SPDR (XLU) is battling the rising 200-day moving average for the third time in five months. Since surging above 38 in mid September, the ETF pulled back with a falling wedge. Buyers stepped in near the 200-day as the ETF moved above the wedge trend line...   READ MORE 

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XLY Breaks Support and GLD Breaks Flag Resistance

XLY Breaks Support and GLD Breaks Flag Resistance

Stocks opened weak, bounced and then closed weak. Small-caps led the way lower with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) falling just over 1%. All sectors were down with the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Finance SPDR (XLF), Basic Materials SPDR (XLB) and Healthcare SPDR (XLV) falling over 1%. Relative weakness...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: AMT, ATML, COV, HD, JBLU

Charts of Interest: AMT, ATML, COV, HD, JBLU

AMT Consolidates after Gap-Breakout. ATML Fall on Expanding Volume. Plus COV, HD, HON and JBLU **This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities** This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate...   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 Volatility Index Surges above August High

S&P 500 Volatility Index Surges above August High

The volatility premium rose sharply as the VIX surged 50% and hit a three month high. The chart below shows the VIX rising from the 13 area to 19.41 in less than three weeks. While the VIX exceeded its August high, the S&P 500 has yet to...   READ MORE 

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SPY Trends Lower as QQQ and IWM Consolidate

SPY Trends Lower as QQQ and IWM Consolidate

It remains a tale of two markets. The Dow Industrials SPDR and the S&P 500 ETF are weak and in short-term downtrends. The Russell 2000 ETF and Nasdaq 100 ETF are holding up and remain in consolidation patterns since September 18th. QQQ and IWM bounced off short-...   READ MORE 

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Relative Strength in Small-caps Supports the Current Bull Market

Relative Strength in Small-caps Supports the Current Bull Market

The Russell 2000 ($RUT) and the Nasdaq ($COMPQ) are leading the relative performance game and this is positive for the stock market. The Russell 2000 represents small-caps and the Nasdaq represents the technology sector. Together, these two represent risk appetite because their stocks have higher betas, which translates into...   READ MORE 

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Elder Impulse Bar Turns Green for the Networking iShares

Elder Impulse Bar Turns Green for the Networking iShares

The Networking iShares (IGN) declined sharply in late September, but managed to hold above its prior low and keep the rising channel in place. With a big surge on Friday, the Elder Impulse bar turned green to signal an upturn in momentum. Also notice that the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR)...   READ MORE 

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New Highs in QQQ and IWM Counter Weakness in SPY

New Highs in QQQ and IWM Counter Weakness in SPY

The Dow Industrials SPDR and the S&P 500 ETF pulled back over the last two weeks, but the Nasdaq 100 ETF and Russell 2000 ETF held strong and hit new highs earlier this week. Relative strength in QQQ and IWM is more important than relative weakness in SPY...   READ MORE 

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Momentum Weakens for IWM and QQQ - SPY Breaks Pennant

Momentum Weakens for IWM and QQQ - SPY Breaks Pennant

Stocks moved lower with broad-based selling pressure on Thursday. Stocks just don't seem to know what they want. It seems as if the shutdown, continuing resolution and debt ceiling are snowballing into a grand bargain of sorts, which would be positive for the markets, long-term at...   READ MORE 

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Banks Underperform on Industry Group PerfChart

Banks Underperform on Industry Group PerfChart

The PerfChart below shows the performance for John Murphy's key industry groups over the past month. Eight of the nine are up, but the Banking Index ($BKX) is up the least and seriously underperforming. The Gold & Silver Index ($XAU) is down sharply. Click this image for a...   READ MORE 

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TLT Forms Falling Flag as SPY Consolidates with Pennant

TLT Forms Falling Flag as SPY Consolidates with Pennant

Stocks edged lower on Wednesday, but the losses were fairly muted. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) fell .41% and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) declined just .09% on the day. The sectors were mixed with small gains and losses. The Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) showed relative weakness with...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: DF, FFIV, INFY, PFE, XRAY

Charts of Interest: DF, FFIV, INFY, PFE, XRAY

DF Breaks Triangle Support to Continue Downtrend. FFIV Bounces off Breakout Zone. Plus INFY, PFE, XRAY Video is at top. Individual charts are below. Click here for iPad/iPhone Version **This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or...   READ MORE 

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Chuy's Makes the MACD Scan with a Bullish Cross

Chuy's Makes the MACD Scan with a Bullish Cross

Chuy's Holdings (CHUY) is showing some promise with a bounce off support and bullish MACD cross. Notice that broken resistance turned into support in the 34 area and held from June to September. With the move above 37 this week, MACD moved above its signal line and momentum...   READ MORE 

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IWM and QQQ Break to New Highs

IWM and QQQ Break to New Highs

Theshut down was not enough to derail the first trading day of the month phenomenon. There has been a bullish bias on the first trading day of the month for years now. Managers accumulate funds during the month and then deploy them at the beginning of the next month. With...   READ MORE 

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Marking Momentum Support for the Russell 2000 ETF

Marking Momentum Support for the Russell 2000 ETF

The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) surged to a new high with two long white candlesticks. Notice how the ETF opened weak on Monday and then moved higher and exceeded the September high. Also notice how StochRSI held support at .50 and moved back above .80 today. Chartists can now mark...   READ MORE 

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IWM and QQQ Hold Support and Short-Term Uptrends

IWM and QQQ Hold Support and Short-Term Uptrends

**This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities** There is a lot of uncertainty in the market place right now and this means every little news bite could trigger a price swing. There will...   READ MORE