Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill


Arthur is Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focused primarily on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within and setting key price levels has made him an industry-leading technician. Learn More 

Archived News

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Broad Based Decline Produces 90% Down Day

Broad Based Decline Produces 90% Down Day

**This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities** It was a good old fashion flight to safety on Tuesday. Stocks moved broadly lower, while the safe havens moved higher. The 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (TLT)...   READ MORE 

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Utilities Buck the Trend with Show of Strength

Utilities Buck the Trend with Show of Strength

Looking for pockets of strength on a down day? Turn to the Sector Market Carpet. The first image shows the broad sector view with the utilities sector in light green. The other sectors are either red or a lighter shade of red, which means they are down. The second image...   READ MORE 

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Oil and Gold Lead as Stocks Flounder

Oil and Gold Lead as Stocks Flounder

**This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities** Despite a worse-than-expected durable goods report, stocks opened firmed and advanced in early trading. The major index ETFs were in positive territory in the afternoon, but selling...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: AXP, CRM, ENR, MDP, YUM

Charts of Interest: AXP, CRM, ENR, MDP, YUM

AXP Breaks Triangle Trend Line. CRM Forms Bear Flag. Plus ENR, MDP, YUM Video at end of commentary **This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities**         Click here for iPad/iPhone Version This commentary and...   READ MORE 

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Bullish P&F Signals Outnumber Bearish Signals

Bullish P&F Signals Outnumber Bearish Signals

Chartists can get an idea of the overall market trend by comparing the number of bullish P&F signals with bearish P&F signals. StockCharts provides this data every day on the predefined scans page. Notice that there are 87 Triple Top Breakouts on the NYSE and only...   READ MORE 

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QQQ Leads with Gap/Breakout - GLD Breaks Flag Resistance

QQQ Leads with Gap/Breakout - GLD Breaks Flag Resistance

**This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities** Stocks started the week under selling pressure, but finished strong with a rally on Thursday and Friday. The major index ETFs closed up for the week with...   READ MORE 

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Toll Brothers Battles Support and Outperforms its Peers

Toll Brothers Battles Support and Outperforms its Peers

While the Home Construction iShares (ITB) battles broken support, Toll Brothers (TOL) is still holding support from the 2013 lows. The chart below shows TOL bouncing off support in mid August, but falling short of a breakout. The indicator window shows TOL relative to ITB using the price relative (TOL:...   READ MORE 

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Evidence Remains Bullish as Nasdaq and Russell OutPerform

Evidence Remains Bullish as Nasdaq and Russell OutPerform

The bulk of the evidence remains bullish, but recent weakness took its toll on SPY momentum as this indicator trio turned bearish. Momentum indicators are leading indicators and will be the first to turn. However, they are also the most prone to whipsaws and bad signals. Of note, the $COMPQ:...   READ MORE 

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IWM Leads with Small Breakout - ITB Challenges the Neckline

IWM Leads with Small Breakout - ITB Challenges the Neckline

**This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities** Stocks moved higher on Thursday with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) leading the way. Both gained over 1%. All...   READ MORE 

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Industrial Metals and Precious Metals Lead Commodity Groups

Industrial Metals and Precious Metals Lead Commodity Groups

The US Commodity Groups PerfChart shows the performance for five commodity groups and the CRB Index ($CRB). Energy prices weighed on the CRB Index as the GSCI Energy Index fell over 1% this past month. In contrast, the GSCI Industrial Metals Index ($GYX) and the GSCI Precious Metals Index ($GPX)...   READ MORE 

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Stocks and Bonds Close Lower after Fed Minutes

Stocks and Bonds Close Lower after Fed Minutes

**This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities** Stocks went on a wild afternoon run as the Fed minutes hit the tape. Despite a bounce attempt, the major index ETFs sold off and ultimately closed...   READ MORE 

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Charts: BAC, BIIB, DDD, IDTI, PG, UAL, UPS

Charts: BAC, BIIB, DDD, IDTI, PG, UAL, UPS

BAC Channels back to Broken Resistance. BIIB Firms after Pullback. Plus DDD, IDTI, PG, UAL, UPS Video at end of commentary **This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities**         Click here for iPad/iPhone Version...   READ MORE 

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High Volume Gap Provides Support for E*Trade on CandleVolume Chart

High Volume Gap Provides Support for E*Trade on CandleVolume Chart

The chart below shows E*Trade (ETFC) with CandleVolume charts to accent volume. Upside volume has been strong in general and the stock gapped above 14 with the biggest volume since the mid March gap down. This gap zone around 14 has turned support as the stock firms just above....   READ MORE 

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S&P 500 ETF Recaptures the 50-day

S&P 500 ETF Recaptures the 50-day

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke below its 50-day moving average on Monday, but moved right back above on Tuesday. This moving average held from December to early June. SPY broke below in late June, but quickly recovered and recaptured the moving average. It looks like another battle...   READ MORE 

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Selling Pressure Extends for Stocks and Treasuries

Selling Pressure Extends for Stocks and Treasuries

**This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities** Selling pressure continued in both stocks and Treasuries on Monday. These two were negatively correlated most of the last two years, but have been positively correlated the...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: CAKE, HCA, HTZ, IACI, WDC

Charts of Interest: CAKE, HCA, HTZ, IACI, WDC

CAKE Stalls Below Prior High. HCA Extends Flag Correction. Plus HTZ, IACI, WDC Video at end of commentary **This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities**         Click here for iPad/iPhone Version This commentary and...   READ MORE 

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Children's Place Tests Neckline Support

Children's Place Tests Neckline Support

Children's Place formed a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern from late May to August and is currently testing neckline support. Notice that downside volume is outpacing upside volume and On Balance Volume (OBV) broke its June low this month. Click this image for a live chart...   READ MORE 

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Gold Benefits from Weakness in Stocks and Bonds

Gold Benefits from Weakness in Stocks and Bonds

Selling pressure hit the stock market for the second week running as the major index ETFs lost ground. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) fell 2.27% last week, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) lost just 1.31%. Even though these are small losses in the grand scheme of things,...   READ MORE 

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Russell 2000 ETF Starts Correction within Bigger Uptrend

Russell 2000 ETF Starts Correction within Bigger Uptrend

The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) moved sharply lower this week to start a short-term downtrend, but this is still considered just correction within a bigger uptrend. There are simply no signs of a major top at this moment. Tops often form with major reversal patterns or consolidation, a bearish divergence...   READ MORE 

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Market Carpet Shows Retailers Lagging and Homebuilders Leading

Market Carpet Shows Retailers Lagging and Homebuilders Leading

The image below shows the Market Carpet for just the consumer discretionary sector (cyclicals). Notice that Pulte (PHM) and Lennar (LEN) are leading on Friday, while Nordstrom (JWN) and Kohl's (KSS) are lagging. Chartists can double click on any symbol in the market carpet to expand that section...   READ MORE 

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Net New Highs Turn Negative on Naz and NYSE

Net New Highs Turn Negative on Naz and NYSE

Stocks were hit with broad selling pressure over the past week, but this is not enough to affect the overall uptrends. As we saw in November and June, corrections are normal in uptrends. The challenge, as always, is distinguishing between a normal correction and the start of something more (extended...   READ MORE 

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Selling Pressure Increases as Breadth Indicators Break Down

Selling Pressure Increases as Breadth Indicators Break Down

Selling pressure certainly intensified on Thursday with an across the board decline. The high-beta Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) led the major index ETFs lower with a 1.82 percent decline. All sectors were down with the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) leading the way. It is negative to see this economically...   READ MORE 

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SPY Breaks Support with Gap Down

SPY Breaks Support with Gap Down

After weeks of indecision, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) made a decisive move with break below the late July low. The gap and support break are short-term bearish as long as they hold. Using the Fibonacci Retracements Tools, chartists can estimate next support in the 50-62% retracement zone,...   READ MORE 

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Buyers Pull Back as SPY and IWM Consolidate Near Support

Buyers Pull Back as SPY and IWM Consolidate Near Support

Stocks opened weak and remained weak, but selling pressure was not that intense as the major index ETFs closed modestly lower. The Dow SPDR (DIA) and S&P Midcap SPDR (MDY) led the way by falling around .75 percent. All sectors were lower with the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY)...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: ACN, AMD, DGX, KMB, TXT

Charts of Interest: ACN, AMD, DGX, KMB, TXT

ACN Breaks Triangle Support with High Volume. AMD Bounces off Support with Good Volume. Plus DGX, KMB, TXT Video at end of commentary **This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities**         Click here for iPad/...   READ MORE 

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Home Construction iShares Breaks Neckline Support

Home Construction iShares Breaks Neckline Support

Rising rates are taking their toll on the Home Construction iShares (ITB) as the ETF broke neckline support on Wednesday. The head-and-shoulders pattern extends almost the entire year and today's breakdown confirms the bearish reversal. The indicator window shows the price relative (ITB:SPY ratio) moving to a...   READ MORE 

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ITB Tests Neckline Support - No Follow Through for GLD

ITB Tests Neckline Support - No Follow Through for GLD

Stocks meandered on Tuesday with the major index ETFs finishing mixed on the day. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) advanced .56% on the heels of Apple, while the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) fell .13% on the day. Treasuries were the big movers as a positive retail sales report prompted another...   READ MORE 

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S&P 1500 AD Line Holds Short-term Support

S&P 1500 AD Line Holds Short-term Support

The S&P 1500 AD Line ($SUPADP), which is a key breadth indicator, has yet to break support and remains in bull mode. Notice how the AD Line established lows from mid July to early August. These lows mark a support zone that chartists should watch for clues on...   READ MORE 

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SPY Bounces off Support - USO Bounces within Flag

SPY Bounces off Support - USO Bounces within Flag

Stocks opened weak on Monday, but quickly recovered and edged into positive territory. The overall gains were rather paltry with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gaining .24% and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) advancing .53%. The sectors were mixed with small gains and losses. The Technology SPDR (XLK) stood out...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: CY, DE, FST, INTC, MXIM, SWKS

Charts of Interest: CY, DE, FST, INTC, MXIM, SWKS

CY Consolidates after Big Surge. DE Bounces off Support with Good Volume. Plus FST, INTC, MXIM, SWKS Video at end of commentary **This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities**         Click here for iPad/iPhone...   READ MORE 

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US Oil Fund Forms Bull Flag in Uptrend

US Oil Fund Forms Bull Flag in Uptrend

After surging and breaking resistance in July, the US Oil Fund (USO) pulled back with a falling flag the last few weeks. USO made its first move with a surge over the last two days. A follow through breakout above flag resistance would signal a continuation higher. Chartists can also...   READ MORE 

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AD Volume Line Breaks Support - GLD Challenges Resistance

AD Volume Line Breaks Support - GLD Challenges Resistance

The Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) and the Hang Seng Index ($HSI) surged over 2% on Monday, but the Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) fell and US stock futures are trading lower. Chinese shares are up because there were some positive economic reports late last week. Gold is also up and going for a...   READ MORE 

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Finance Sector Starts Underperforming

Finance Sector Starts Underperforming

The Finance SPDR (XLF) was one of the best performing sectors from April to late July, but was the weakest sector over the last two weeks. The PerfChart below shows XLF with a loss over the last ten trading days. In contrast, notice that the S&P 500, Consumer...   READ MORE 

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NYSE Lags Nasdaq, but Technicals Remain Bullish

NYSE Lags Nasdaq, but Technicals Remain Bullish

Stocks stalled over the last two weeks, but this was not enough to derail any indicators or the overall uptrend in the major index ETFs. Note that the major index ETFs hit new highs over the last two weeks, while XLK, XLY and XLI hit new highs to lead the...   READ MORE 

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Greenback Extends Downtrend - Gold Surges

Greenback Extends Downtrend - Gold Surges

Stocks were all over the place on Thursday. The major index ETFs opened higher, quickly pulled back and then moved back into positive territory in the afternoon. The end result was uneventful as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) advanced around 1/2 percent. A gain,...   READ MORE 

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Steel ETF Breaks Flag Resistance with Big Surge

Steel ETF Breaks Flag Resistance with Big Surge

Even though the long-term trend remains down, the Steel ETF (SLX) is making some bullish waves with a flag breakout on Thursday. After an advance from late June to mid July, SLX consolidated with a falling flag, which is a bullish continuation pattern. Today's breakout signals a continuation...   READ MORE 

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QQQ Continues to Lead - Yen Surges

QQQ Continues to Lead - Yen Surges

Stocks opened weak, but quickly firmed and consolidated at lower levels the rest of the day. The overall losses were small with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) loosing .71% and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) falling just .18%. QQQ continues to lead the major index ETFs and show the most...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: AEP, AMX, HD, INTU, SO, TE

Charts of Interest: AEP, AMX, HD, INTU, SO, TE

AEP Firms at Broken Resistance. AMX Surges to Consolidation Highs. Plus HD, INTU, SO, TE Video at end of commentary **This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities**         Click here for iPad/iPhone Version This...   READ MORE 

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Chuy's Holdings Forms Bearish Engulfing at Key Retracement

Chuy's Holdings Forms Bearish Engulfing at Key Retracement

Chuy's Holdings came across the intraday bearish engulfing scan on Wednesday. Even though the trading day has just begun, notice that the stock broke down in July and retraced 62% with a bounce back to 40 in August. The gap and 62% retracement mark resistance as the stock...   READ MORE 

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Marking Short-Term Support for the SPX AD Line

Marking Short-Term Support for the SPX AD Line

**This chart analysis is for educational purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities** Stocks pulled back on Tuesday with the Home Construction iShares (ITB), Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Biotech SPDR (XBI) leading the way lower. ITB is on the...   READ MORE