The only thing the bulls have to fear is bullishness itself. In other words, the bulk of the evidence is bullish, but stocks are getting overbought because the S&P 500 is up 10% since mid November (two months). The Russell 2000 ($RUT) is up over 15%. Except for... READ MORE
Stocks surged on Thursday with the S&P 500 hitting multi year highs. The Nasdaq and the Dow also surged and are poised to challenge their September highs. Stocks were buoyed by a surprisingly large jump in housing starts and a large decline in initial jobless claims. Even though... READ MORE
The Dow is up triple digits and close to its Sep-Oct highs, but the NYSE most active list shows more decliners than gainers (7 to 3). Big banks (BAC,C,JPM) are leading the way lower on profit taking. The Nasdaq most active list, in contrast, shows nine up and... READ MORE
Trading remains mixed overall, but the bias is still bullish as the major index ETFs hold their New Year's gains. SPY, MDY, QQEW and IWM have edged higher since gapping up on 2-Jan. QQQ, which has been weighed down by Apple, has traded flat. The bulls have the... READ MORE
BRCM Holds Gap with Flat Flag. GRMN Breaks Support and Forms Bear Flag. Plus BHI, LH, ORLY, SCHL This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to... READ MORE
The markets have been in risk-on mode since mid November and continue to embrace risk. The chart below shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and US Oil Fund (USO) performing the best. The 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (TLT) is performing the worst. Also note that the Euro Currency... READ MORE
It is getting to be a familiar story. Stocks in general edged higher, but the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) edged lower because of weakness in Apple. AAPL broke support at 500 with a sharp decline on Tuesday. The company reports next Wednesday after the close. This is definitely one of... READ MORE
Activision (ATVI) came to life with a gap and high-volume surge off support in 2013. The stock remains in a long-term downtrend, but could be forming a double bottom over the last three months. A break above the December high would confirm the pattern and reverse the downtrend. Click this... READ MORE
Stocks were mixed on Monday with the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and Nasdaq 100 Equal-Weight ETF (QQEW) edging higher, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) edged lower. QQQ was weighed down by weakness in QCOM, AAPL and GOOG. The Dow was helped by... READ MORE
AMKR Forms High-Tight Pennant. AVP Firms at Key Retracement. Plus CSX, EA, IBM, KGC, RSD/A This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for... READ MORE
American Science and Engineering (ASEI) surged in November and then moved into a trading range the last six week. Notice that volatility is contracting as the Bollinger Bands narrow. In particular, ASEI traded between 64.5 and 66.2 during January, which is a very tight range indeed. Watch these... READ MORE
After big moves on 31-Dec and 2-Jan, stocks edged higher the last seven trading days. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed at 146.06 on Wednesday (2-Jan) and at 147.07 on Friday (11-Jan). Even though the ability to hold the initial gains and edge higher is positive,... READ MORE
The Australian Dollar Index ($XAD) broke above trend line resistance from a large triangle this week. Medium-term, the index is still trading in a range extending back to July 2012. A break above the July-September highs would argue for a challenge to the 2011 highs. Click this image for a... READ MORE
The vast majority of market indicators remain in bull mode. The Nasdaq AD Line broke above its December high this week and the Nasdaq AD Volume Line broke above its September high. The Nasdaq continues to lag the NY Composite, but tech stocks are starting to show a little life.... READ MORE
Stocks moved higher on Thursday with the major index ETFs scoring modest gains, very modest gains. The S&P 100 ETF (OEF) led the way with a whopping .80% advance. The Finance SPDR (XLF) led the sectors with a 1.27% gain on renewed confidence in US banks. Semiconductors... READ MORE
IBM has been underperforming the broader market for several months and continued this trend with a break below support. On the P&F chart, notice how the stock formed three O-Columns with equal lows in January. The current O-Columnm which is red, broke below these lows to forge the... READ MORE
AAN Consolidates after Channel Break. BMC Breaks Resistance and Shows Relative Strength in 2013. Plus CVX, LH, VFC, VMW, XOM This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all... READ MORE
Stocks firmed on Wednesday with the major index ETFs putting in small gains for the day. The Nasdaq 100 Equal-Weight ETF (QQEW) led the way with a .78% advance and a fresh 52-week high. This is a clear sign that the Nasdaq 100 as a whole is strong. The Nasdaq... READ MORE
The Commodity Index Fund ($DBC) declined from mid September to early November and then formed a triangle consolidation. After a fall last week, the ETF is testing triangle support and a break below 27.3 would be bearish. Notice that RSI is also consolidating with support at 40 and resistance... READ MORE
Stocks extended their corrective period on Tuesday as the major index ETFs finished with small losses. Note that stocks surged on 31-Dec and 2-Jan as the major index ETFs forged big gaps. Stocks were overbought at this stage and have pretty much consolidated the last few days. The ability to... READ MORE
The 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) surged over the last two weeks, but remains at relatively low levels historically. Also note that the yield curve is still quite steep with the 2-Year Treasury Yield ($UST2Y) hovering around .27% and the 10-year Treasury Yield near 1.88%. A steep yield curve is... READ MORE
AEO Turns Sharply Lower. CTXS Holds Gap and Challenges Resistance. Plus GES, UDR, T, VZ This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves... READ MORE
Trading was rather quiet as the world returned to work on Monday. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) formed its third spinning top candlestick in as many days. Spinning tops feature small bodies (open-close range) and relatively equal upper-lower shadows (high-low range). They indicate indecision that can sometimes foreshadow... READ MORE
Chartists can find the leaders and the laqgards by sifting through the Sector Summary. This image shows the industry groups within the materials sector. Eight of the nine are down. The DJ US Steel Index ($DJUSST) is the lone gainer as it bucks the market. Chartists can click on the... READ MORE
Stocks took a big bite of risk to start the year. Last week's gains were split between years with the surge starting on December 31st and continuing on January 2nd. Stocks consolidated the last two days of the week and held on to their gains. The return to... READ MORE
It was a volatile week for gold and gold miners, but the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) remains at an interesting juncture that warrants attention. After surging above 47 to start the New Year, the Fed minutes on Wednesday put some doubts on the future of quantitative easing. Keep in mind... READ MORE
Microsoft (MSFT) is having a tough year already as the stock failed to clear resistance and moved sharply lower the last two days. Resistance at 27.75 stems from broken support and the November-December highs. The indicator window shows OBV moving steadily lower, which indicates continued selling pressure. Click this... READ MORE
Strength over the past week triggered three upgrades for the indicator summary. The Nasdaq AD Line turned bullish with a break above its December high. The $VIX and $VXN plunged towards support to turn bullish. Fresh 52-week highs in the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) and Russell 2000... READ MORE
The Fed minutes threw the intermarket arena a curve ball on Thursday. Basically, the Fed admitted that the affects of quantitative easing were diminishing over time and it was running out of bullets. This news sent Treasuries sharply lower, the Dollar sharply higher and gold sharply lower. Stocks and oil... READ MORE
Not all stocks participated in Wednesday's big advance. Lululemon (LULU) started strong, but quickly succumbed to selling pressure and closed sharply lower. With a strong open and weak close, a bearish engulfing pattern formed at resistance. Also notice that MACD moved below its signal line last week. Click... READ MORE
BOOM Breaks Consolidation Resistance with Good Volume. BSX Forms Inverse HS Pattern. Plus AMKR, IPI, NBR This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for... READ MORE
Stocks followed through on the New Year's Eve reversals with gaps and strong gains to start the year. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) surged over 5% the last two days. IWM and the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) recorded 52-week highs... READ MORE
Lots of stocks are coming across the gap up scan today (297 at last count). The chart below shows one list member, Oshkosh, gapping up and breaking above its mid December high. This move reinforces support in the 28 area. Also notice that MACD moved above its signal line over... READ MORE
The markets got a taste for risk as the Senate debated the fiscal cliff on Friday. A bill did indeed pass by a wide margin and the House subsequently passed the bill as well. The bill does provide some relief from the fiscal slope, but does little to fix the... READ MORE
The Fed announced another round of quantitative easing on September 13th and Treasuries have yet to cooperate with this maneuver. Instead of a specific program, the Fed announced an open-ended quantitative easing program that would begin in January 2013. QE is supposed to be bearish for treasuries because the Fed... READ MORE
The Technology SPDR (XLK) led the market in the first half of the year, but lagged the market in the second half and underperformed the S&P 500. The technology sector accounts for over 19% of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and is by far the biggest... READ MORE
The US Dollar Index ($USD) was all over the place in 2012, but ended the year slightly lower than where it started. The index started the year around 80, surged to 84 and closed at 79.62 on Friday. From February to December, a large head-and-shoulders reversal formed with a... READ MORE
Big banks came to life in 2012 as the Finance SPDR (XLF) started the year strong and ended strong. XLK opened 2012 just above 13 and is likely to finish near a 52-week high. The ETF scored a 52-week high with the move above 16.5 in mid January and... READ MORE
The Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) came to life over the last two months and surged above its March high with a massive surge. Notice that the index held above its 2009 lows and also broke channel resistance in the process. This move opens the door to the next resistance zone in... READ MORE
The bulk of the evidence remains bullish, but I am concerned that the major index ETFs may be forming lower highs. With the decline over the last six days, SPY and DIA peaked below their September highs and lower highs could be forming. Relative weakness in the Nasdaq is also... READ MORE