Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill


Arthur is Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focused primarily on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within and setting key price levels has made him an industry-leading technician. Learn More 

Archived News

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SPY Holds Support for a Fifth Time - FXE Set to Surge

SPY Holds Support for a Fifth Time - FXE Set to Surge

Stocks ended mixed on Thursday as sharp rallies in the final hour paired losses significantly. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) still lost over 1%, but the S&P Midcap SPDR (MDY) closed up .30% on the day. The nine sector SPDRs were mixed with four up and five down....   READ MORE 

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XRT Underperforms - GLD Forms Bearish Pennant

XRT Underperforms - GLD Forms Bearish Pennant

Stocks extended their oversold bounce with modest gains on Wednesday. All major index ETFs were up with the Russell 2000 ETF leading the way (+1.63%). The Dow Industrials SPDR, S&P 500 ETF and Nasdaq 100 ETF were up less than 1%. Eight of the nine sectors were...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: AEO, AMZN, AAPL, DRI, HOTT, SBUX, URBN

Charts of Interest: AEO, AMZN, AAPL, DRI, HOTT, SBUX, URBN

AEO Fails at Resistance. AAPL Stalls with Tablet War. HOTT Does not Look so Hot. Plus AMZN, DRI, SBUX, URBN This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all...   READ MORE 

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Egyptian Stocks Surge after Election

Egyptian Stocks Surge after Election

The Egypt Index ETF (EGPT) surged in the lead up to Hosni Mubarak's resignation and then declined as democratic elections were called. The decline ended when uncertainty became certainty and Mohammed Morsi was declared president on 24-June. With the correction holding above the December low, it looks like...   READ MORE 

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SPY Gets Oversold Bounce - GLD Falls after Short Bounce

SPY Gets Oversold Bounce - GLD Falls after Short Bounce

Stocks got an oversold bounce on Tuesday with the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) leading the way. The gains, however, were quite modest with MDY up just .67% and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) edging higher by .50%. Nothing to write home about for sure. Stocks...   READ MORE 

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A Bollinger Band Squeeze for American Eagle

A Bollinger Band Squeeze for American Eagle

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) has been stuck in a consolidation since early May. Moreover, notice that this consolidation is narrowing as the Bollinger Bands contract. In the indicator window, Bollinger BandWidth is currently at its lowest level since February, which was scene of the last big contraction and breakout. Watch...   READ MORE 

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SPX Sets Up Test of 200-day as GLD Recoups Support Break

SPX Sets Up Test of 200-day as GLD Recoups Support Break

Stocks moved sharply lower on Monday with an extremely weak opening. The major index ETFs gapped down on the open, drifted lower throughout the morning and then edged off their lows in the afternoon. Even though selling pressure abated in the afternoon, buying pressure was certainly uninspiring and the gaps...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: ABX, AFFX, CX, HD, MS, NVDA, UTHR

Charts of Interest: ABX, AFFX, CX, HD, MS, NVDA, UTHR

ABX Forms ABC Falling Wedge. HD Struggles at Resistance. NVDA Tests Gap Zone with Small Wedge. Plus AFFX, CX, MS, UTHR This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We...   READ MORE 

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Finding Green in a Sea of Red

Finding Green in a Sea of Red

Stocks were down sharply on Monday, but there were a two pockets of strength. The image below was taken from the ETF market summary. Notice that the Commodity Index Fund (DBC) and the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) are positive for the day. Also of note, gold, silver and corn were...   READ MORE 

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SPY Breaks Wedge Support as UUP Breaks Wedge Resistance

SPY Breaks Wedge Support as UUP Breaks Wedge Resistance

It is shaping up to be another big week on Wall Street and in Europe. On the news front, we have some key economic reports, another critical EU Summit and a potential ruling on healthcare reform. On the technical front, note that the major index ETFs failed at broken support...   READ MORE 

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Alcoa Traces out Descending Triangle on Point & Figure Chart

Alcoa Traces out Descending Triangle on Point & Figure Chart

Alcoa (AA) is part of the Basic Materials SPDR (XLB) and in a clear downtrend. On the P&F chart (3 x .25), the stock broke to new lows in 2011 and then formed a descending triangle the last nine months. The red A marks October 2011 and the...   READ MORE 

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Indicator Summary Improves, But Remains Bearish Overall

Indicator Summary Improves, But Remains Bearish Overall

Stocks made a valiant run in June, but it was cut short with Thursday's sharp decline. Even though a few indicator groups were upgraded, the bulk of the evidence remains bearish. Strength within the NYSE, pushed the NYSE AD Line sharply higher and NYSE Net New Highs into...   READ MORE 

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SPY Fails at Key Retracement - GLD Fails to Hold Breakout

SPY Fails at Key Retracement - GLD Fails to Hold Breakout

The market started the week in risk-on mode, but made a sharp u-turn on Thursday with a move to risk-off. The major index ETFs were down sharply with small-caps (IMW) and mid-caps (MDY) leading the way. Both lost over 2.5% on the day. All sectors were down with the...   READ MORE 

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Sector Carpet Sees Red after the Fed

Sector Carpet Sees Red after the Fed

The image below comes from the Sector Carpet. First, notice that all sectors are lower. Second, notice that the Basic Materials SPDR (XLB), Energy SPDR (XLE) and Technology SPDR (XLK) have the most red. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is not far behind. Third, notice that the defensive sectors (XLU,...   READ MORE 

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XLV Forms Harami at Resistance as SCOTUS Looms

XLV Forms Harami at Resistance as SCOTUS Looms

Stocks edged lower on Wednesday as the Fed failed to inspire a continuation of the current rally. Except for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), which gained .08%, the major index ETFs closed fractionally lower. Seven of the nine sectors were down with the Industrials SPDR (XLI), Basic Materials SPDR (XLB)...   READ MORE 

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Charts: AEO, BIDU, FFIV, FLEX, IDTI, LEN, OXY, STT, TOL

Charts: AEO, BIDU, FFIV, FLEX, IDTI, LEN, OXY, STT, TOL

AEO Extends Consolidation with Tight Triangle. BIDU Shows Relative Weakness. JBLU Consolidates after High Volume Surge. Plus FFIV, FLEX, IDTI, LEN, OXY, RIMM, STT, TOL This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock...   READ MORE 

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CAKE Fails at Resistance as MACD Turns Lower

CAKE Fails at Resistance as MACD Turns Lower

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) moved sharply lower at the beginning of June and then rebounded with the market the last few weeks. This rebound, however, is running into resistance from the gap and prior high. Also notice that MACD turned down and is on the verge of breaking below its signal...   READ MORE 

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SPY, QQQ and IWM Hit Key Retracements

SPY, QQQ and IWM Hit Key Retracements

Stocks moved higher again on Tuesday, but performance was lopsided again. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) led the market with a 1.73% gain, but the S&P 100 ETF (OEF) lagged with a .37% gain. Seven of the nine sectors were up. Money moved out of the Consumer...   READ MORE 

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A Rough Three Months for Commodities

A Rough Three Months for Commodities

The PerfChart below shows the three month performance for five commodity indices and the CRB Index ($CRB). All five are down and $CRB is down around 14%. Blame it on energy, which is down over 21%. Precious metals have held up relatively well with a decline less than 4%. Click...   READ MORE 

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SPY Maintains Rising Wedge Uptrend - USO Finds Support

SPY Maintains Rising Wedge Uptrend - USO Finds Support

It was a mixed day for stocks with the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) moving lower and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) moving higher. The market was weighed down by the Finance SPDR (XLF) and Energy SPDR (XLE), but lifted by the Technology SPDR (XLK) and the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY)...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: GFI, FICO, ISIL, ISRG, MOS, NYT, THC, TSN

Charts of Interest: GFI, FICO, ISIL, ISRG, MOS, NYT, THC, TSN

GFI Forms Pennant. ISIL Surges on Big Volume. MOS Breaks Inverse HS. Plus FICO, ISRG, NYT, THC, TSN This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to...   READ MORE 

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Sector Summary Shows Hardware, Internet and Semis Leading

Sector Summary Shows Hardware, Internet and Semis Leading

The image below, which stems from the sector summary at StockCharts.com, shows the key industry groups within technology sector. On Monday, computer hardware, internet and semiconductors were leading the way higher. Users can click on these names to see the individual stocks, which is a great way to identify...   READ MORE 

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Bearish Wedge Takes Shape in SPY as TLT Holds Support

Bearish Wedge Takes Shape in SPY as TLT Holds Support

And the results are in! Pro-bailout party New Democracy won the Greek election with around 30% of the vote. They will now have three days to form a coalition with a parliamentary majority. Now comes the tough stuff. The new government will need to renegotiate the austerity package, pass this...   READ MORE 

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IWM Battles Broken Support and Relative Weakness

IWM Battles Broken Support and Relative Weakness

The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) got a bounce at the end of the week, but remains in a trading range since the June 6th gap. There are two dynamics at work on this chart. First, the medium-term trend is down after the ETF broke neckline support from a head-and-shoulders pattern....   READ MORE 

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Stocks with Big Gains and Big Prices Lead the Dow Higher

Stocks with Big Gains and Big Prices Lead the Dow Higher

The Dow surged over 150 points on Thursday and broke above its May high. With only 30 stocks, chartists can use the CandleGlance feature at StockCharts.com to find which stocks led the move. The Dow is a price weighed average and the stocks with the highest price have the...   READ MORE 

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AD Volume Lines Poised to Test Minor Resistance

AD Volume Lines Poised to Test Minor Resistance

After a rebound last week, stocks turned flat this week and treaded water ahead of the Greek elections. The AD Volume Lines established minor resistance levels with the late May highs and breakouts would be short-term bullish. However, this would not be enough to turn medium-term bullish again. Also note...   READ MORE 

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XLP Hits New High and XLV Breaks Resistance

XLP Hits New High and XLV Breaks Resistance

Stocks caught a bid on Thursday with the major index ETFs closing modestly higher. The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) led the way with a 1.19% advance. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) lagged with a .37% advance. All sectors were up with the Energy SPDR (XLE) and Healthcare SPDR (XLV)...   READ MORE 

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S&P MidCap 400 SPDR Forms Falling Flag ahead of Big Weekend

S&P MidCap 400 SPDR Forms Falling Flag ahead of Big Weekend

There is a real gut check underway in the stock market. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) surged last week and then corrected the last 5-6 days with a falling flag/wedge. This could be a bullish continuation pattern, but one must wonder if the bulls have the...   READ MORE 

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IWM Forms Falling Flag - XLY Shows Relative Weakness

IWM Forms Falling Flag - XLY Shows Relative Weakness

Stocks moved higher in the first half of the day and then lower in the second half. With the afternoon decline outpacing the morning advance, the major index ETFs closed modestly lower. Mid-caps led the decline with the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) losing 1.34%. Small-caps were...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: AES, APC, COV, LTD, MMM, SBUX

Charts of Interest: AES, APC, COV, LTD, MMM, SBUX

LTD Forms Flat Flag after Sharp Decline. MMM Forms Harami at Key Retracement. SBUX Breaks Descending Triangle Support. Plus AES, APC, COV This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)...   READ MORE 

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Energy SDDR Forms Pennant after Gap Higher

Energy SDDR Forms Pennant after Gap Higher

The Energy SPDR (XLE) remains in a downtrend overall, but signs of life are appearing as the ETF gapped higher last week and formed a pennant over the last five days. A break above this short-term consolidation could signal a continuation of the early June bounce and target further strength...   READ MORE 

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IWM Forms Inverse HS Pattern - GLD Bounces off Support

IWM Forms Inverse HS Pattern - GLD Bounces off Support

Stocks rebounded after Monday's bearish reversal day with the major index ETFs gaining over 1%. The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) led the way with a 1.61% gain, while the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) lagged with a 1.01% gain. Eight of nine sectors were...   READ MORE 

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SPY is Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place

SPY is Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place

No wonder the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) cannot make up its mind on direction. The ETF broke key support in mid May and the 50-day moving average turned lower. Combined with Monday's high, these no mark the rock or resistance zone. The support zone, or hard...   READ MORE 

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SPY Fails at Resistance with Bearish Engulfing

SPY Fails at Resistance with Bearish Engulfing

Stocks surged on the open with the S&P 500 exceeding 1335 in the first 5 minutes of trading. Selling pressure hit after five minutes of euphoria and the index closed below 1308. $SPX swung 2% from high to low and closed down over 1% on the day. Overall,...   READ MORE 

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Charts of Interest: AEO, BXP, DRI, F, HAS, HES, TE, TOL, VLO

Charts of Interest: AEO, BXP, DRI, F, HAS, HES, TE, TOL, VLO

AEO Forms Triangle as Retail Sales Report Looms. HAS Shows Weakness with Pennant Break. TE Breaks Falling Wedge Resistance with Good Volume. Plus BXP, DRI, F, HES, TOL, VLO This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell...   READ MORE 

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Bearish Engulfings and Dark Clouds Litter the Pre-defined Scan Page

Bearish Engulfings and Dark Clouds Litter the Pre-defined Scan Page

With a strong open and weak close on Monday, hundreds of stocks and ETFs formed either dark cloud patterns or bearish engulfing patterns. The chart below shows Home Depot (HD) forming a dark cloud near resistance and with the Stochastic Oscillator overbought. A move below 80 in the Stochastic Oscillator...   READ MORE 

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SPY Poised to Break Late May High as GLD Holds Breakout

SPY Poised to Break Late May High as GLD Holds Breakout

Stocks opened weak on Friday, but rallied throughout the day and closed strong. Rumors of a Spanish bailout fueled los toros (the bulls). Small-caps led the way higher with the Russell 2000 ($RUT) gaining over 1% on the day. All nine sectors were up with the Finance SPDR (XLF) and...   READ MORE 

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German DAX Index Continues to Show Relative Weakness

German DAX Index Continues to Show Relative Weakness

The German DAX Index peaked around 7200 in mid March and moved below 6000 in early June. That's over 15% in less than three months. Despite looking oversold, there are no signs of a reversl as the index remains below its late May high. In the indicator window,...   READ MORE 

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Oversold Bounce Not Enough to Influence Indicator Summary

Oversold Bounce Not Enough to Influence Indicator Summary

Stocks bounced this week, but the bounce was clearly not enough to rattle the indicator summary, which remains firmly negative. The AD Volume Lines surged, but remain well below their May support breaks and in downtrend. The major index ETFs also surged, but have yet to negate the May support...   READ MORE 

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SPY Fails at Late May High - TLT Bounces off Broken Resistance

SPY Fails at Late May High - TLT Bounces off Broken Resistance

Stocks asked for stimulus and failed to get what they wanted. The EU has yet to come forth with a concrete plan for EU banks, Bernanke did not offer hints of quantitative easing and the ECB stands ready to act. Allez, act already! Bernanke said the Fed would ease if...   READ MORE