Despite a sharp decline in May-June, the Dow Industrials remains above the Bullish Support Line extending up from the October low. The red "A" marks the October column. This line sets support right at 12000. A break would reverse the current uptrend and require a red Bearish Resistance... READ MORE
It was a classic stimulus-response rally on Wednesday. Wait, I did not see any actual stimulus. In reality, the market was anticipating stimulus in Europe, the US and elsewhere around the world. Rumors abound that the EU is poised to rescue Spanish banks and implement some sort of Euro-wide banking... READ MORE
ANN Closes Lower and Shows Relative Weakness. BAC Holds above Late May Low and Breaks Resistance. ROL Shows Relative Strength with a Bull Flag. Plus CCL, DDS, LH This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short... READ MORE
SPY is getting a nice oversold bounce with a gap up and Andrews' Pitchfork marks resistance in the 133 area. The pitchfork traces out a falling channel extending down from the April-May highs and the upper line crosses the 133 level next week. You can read more on Andrews... READ MORE
Stocks bounced on Monday with small-caps and mid-caps leading the way. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained around 1% and the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) surged 2.05%. The chart below shows MDY forming a bullish engulfing as it surged back towards its 200-day moving average. While... READ MORE
Stocks are rebounded on Tuesday with homebuilders leading the way. The S&P Sector Carpet shows the Lennar (LEN) and Pulte (PHM) leading within the consumer discretionary sector. On the price charts, PHM is bounced off its April low and LEN formed a bullish engulfing pattern. Click this image... READ MORE
Stocks ended mixed on Monday with mid-caps showing relative weakness and large techs showing relative strength. The sectors were also mixed with five up and four down. The Finance SPDR (XLF) led the losers by falling almost 1%. Relative weakness in this key sector is a negative for the market... READ MORE
AAPL Shows Relative Strength. AMZN Retraces 50-61.80% of Prior Surge. ORCL Firms Just above Support Zone. Plus $AMGN, $CIEN This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all... READ MORE
The Utilities SPDR (XLU) is virtually alone at the top as it trades near a 52-week high. A bullish cup-with-handle is taking shape and a break above resistance would signal a continuation higher. After showing relative weakness from January to mid March, the ETF started outperforming in mid March as... READ MORE
Friday produced yet another round of economic reports that were below expectations and the stock market moved sharply lower. Even though EU issues may be lurking behind the scenes, don't forget that US economic reports have been falling short for two months now. While the employment numbers were... READ MORE
After a failure at broken support, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) looks set for a move towards a Fibonacci cluster. The chart below shows XLY breaking support and becoming oversold in mid May. The ETF then bounced back to broken support and this area turned into resistance. It is not... READ MORE
The chart below shows five different treasuries yields. Notice that five and seven year yields are falling the fastest as money moves into medium-term treasuries. After peaking on March 19th, the 5-year Treasury Yield ($UST5Y) and the 7-year Treasury Yield ($UST7Y) are down over 38% in less than three months.... READ MORE
Despite a shallow bounce and some firmness the last two weeks, there is no change in the indicator summary. Current conditions remain bearish overall. The major index ETFs and the key sector SPDRs all broke down in May. The AD Volume Lines broke support from their March-April lows. Net New... READ MORE
Stocks were mixed and directionless on Thursday. Concerns in Europe and worse-than-expected economic reports buoyed the bears, while the prospects of further quantitative easing from the European Central Bank (ECB) and Fed put a bid in stocks. Don't be surprised if we see some big announcement out of... READ MORE
The S&P Sector PerfChart shows the percentage change for the nine sector SPDRs and the S&P 500 for the month of May. Eight of nine sectors are down with finance leading the day (down around 10%). The utilities sector sports the only gain as investors moved... READ MORE
Stocks were hit with concerns in Europe again on Wednesday. Once again, the market failed to put together back-to-back gains and failed to follow through on Tuesday's advance. All major index ETFs were down with small-caps leading the way. Large-cap techs held up relatively well as the Nasdaq... READ MORE
After a rise the last three weeks, COLM hit a pocket of selling pressure and formed a bearish engulfing just below its April highs. This pattern formed even as the S&P 500 closed higher. Also notice that downside volume has consistently outpaced upside volume since late April. The... READ MORE
June is shaping up to be one critical month. Worse-than-expected economic reports this week would solidify the medium-term downtrends in the major index ETFs. Another Euro crisis after the Greek elections could keep buyers at bay even longer. A slight majority of US economic reports have been worse-than-expected the last... READ MORE
After returning all the way to the December lows in May, Alcoa (AA) firmed last week and started this week with a gap higher. There is some support here, but the trend since early February is down and this gap is on low volume (so far). Click this image for... READ MORE
Stock futures are up sharply this morning as the world takes a small bite of risk. Stocks are higher in Asia with Shanghai and Australia up just over 1%. European stocks are higher, but only modestly so with most major indices up around .50%. Oil futures are following the risk-on... READ MORE
Careful out there. It could be a very volatile week. AMAT Forms Harami at Oversold Levels. PNC Stalls at Support. RIG Becomes Oversold and Consolidates. Plus ALTR, BHI, FNSR This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell... READ MORE
This chart cover the recent shift to risk-off. The US Dollar Index ($USD) and the 30-Year US Treasury ($USB) are leading over the last six months as both trade near six month highs. Spot Gold ($GOLD) and Spot Light Crude ($WTIC) are lagging as both trade near six month lows.... READ MORE
The indicator summary remains firmly bearish with nine of ten indicator groups now in the bearish camp. The Bullish Percent Index joined the bears as five of the nine sector BPIs moved below 50%. The AD Volume Lines clearly broke support to start downtrends this month. New lows expanded significantly... READ MORE
After meandering for most of the day Thursday, stocks caught a late bid and moved higher in the final hour. Except for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), which closed down .66%, the major index ETFs were slightly higher on the day. The sectors were mixed with the Technology SPDR (XLK)... READ MORE
The image below shows the Market Summary Market Carpet zoomed in on the industry groups. (Note: click the heading to zoom in on a ground). Right away the Amex Airline Index ($XAL) stands out with a dark green square. This means it is leading with the biggest gains. On the... READ MORE
Let the roller coaster ride begin! Stocks started the day weak with the major index ETFs falling over 1% in the first two hours of trading. After firming for a few hours, stocks moved sharply higher in afternoon trading. Most of the major index ETFs closed with small gains. The... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD) gave back last week's gain with a sharp decline the last three days and is on the verge of breaking support. The next support zone resides in the 135-138 area. Gold remains hostage to the falling Euro as the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) fell... READ MORE
After a one day oversold bounce, stocks stalled on Tuesday as indecisive candlesticks formed on many charts. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Russell Microcap Fund (IWC) closed lower and showed relative weakness. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY), however, eked out a small gain and showed... READ MORE
A review of the CandleGlance charts for the thirty Dow stocks shows only five components trading above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages: AT&T, Disney, Pfizer, Wal-mart and Verizon. Four of these five can be considered defensive stocks that hold up well during times of uncertainty. Click this... READ MORE
Stocks rebounded on Monday with mid-caps leading the charge and the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) surging 3.82% on the day. All sectors were higher with materials, technology, energy and industrials gaining over 2%. Many of the hardest hit sectors and industry groups saw the biggest gains... READ MORE
CME Surges off Key Retracement. ISIL Forms Pennant after High Volume Surge. LUV Breaks Flag Resistance on Big Volume. Plus CTXS, HOTT, IMN, SHLD This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF... READ MORE
Apple suffered its biggest six week decline since 2008, but signs of firmness emerged as the stock formed a spinning top at the end of last week. Spinning tops represent indecision that can sometimes foreshadow a reversal. Also note that this candlestick formed with high volume. A move above Thursday&... READ MORE
Let the jawboning begin! The G8 came out with a very bold (not) statement over the weekend. In short, they urged Greece to stay in the Euro and said growth issues should be considered. Big deal. There is an EU summit scheduled for Wednesday and we can expect more grandiose... READ MORE
With big declines this past week, the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports both broke support levels and forged lower lows. Confirmed lower lows amount to a Dow Theory sell signal. The first chart shows the Dow Industrials forming a double top and breaking double top support with a decline below... READ MORE
The 30-year Treasury Yield ($TYX) broke down with a sharp decline the last few weeks. This puts the yield near its 2011 lows and within striking distance of its 2008 lows, scene of the last crisis and flight to safety. Notice that treasury yields and the S&P 500... READ MORE
With a slew of downgrades, the indicator summary moved to -6 and decidedly negative for the first time since December. The bull run was long (5+ months), but the evidence has clearly shifted as selling pressure accelerated this week. Net New Highs for the NYSE turned negative and hit their... READ MORE
The decline in stocks accelerated on Thursday with QQQ and IMW falling over 2% and SPY loosing around 1.5%. This could be the beginning of the end, or it could simply be the middle of a free fall (see August 2011). Stocks are simply in falling knife mode. Of... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD) and the 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (TLT) have been negatively this month. Notice how TLT advanced from 116 to 123.5 and GLD declined from 161 to 150 the prior 11 days. This negative correlation changed today as both surged higher. TLT is up over 1%... READ MORE
There it is again. Stocks opened with a little bounce and then worked their way lower the rest of the day. Every intraday bounce since May 11th has led to renewed selling pressure and lower lows. Buying pressure is weak on the bounce and none-existent after the bounce. The major... READ MORE
AMZN Stalls after Big Gap. FL Forms Pennant after High Volume Support Break. WSM Breaks Flag Support after Big Bull Trap. Plus ADP, AFFX, FL, LUV, ROK This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any... READ MORE