Today I will expand and update the key breadth indicators for the S&P 500. Notably, I added two more early warning indicators to the mix. They have yet to trigger, but these added indicators will give us something to watch going forward. I will also update the charts... READ MORE
This weekly commentary, featuring the S&P 500, Index Breadth Model and Sector Breadth Model, is designed to provide an unbiased view of the current stock market environment. Models, while not perfect, provide a clear process driven approach for evaluating the market. Focusing on present signals, instead of future... READ MORE
Today's report will rank and group my core ETF universe from strong uptrends to clear downtrends. Most of these ETFs are stock ETFs, but I also include several bond-related ETFs and a few commodity ETFs in my universe. The defensive groups continue to dominate with consumer staples, utilities... READ MORE
My headlines are often inspired by tunes, and this one is a classic going back to 1936 and Fred Astaire. No, I am not old enough to have seen it live on TV, but I've heard plenty of remakes. Even though there may be trouble ahead, I am... READ MORE
Normally I ignore resistance levels in uptrends and support levels in downtrends. Resistance levels are not that important because higher highs are expected in an uptrend. The assumption is that a trend in motion stays in motion so a break above the prior peak is considered normal. Support levels, on... READ MORE
Mean-reversion signals provide a great way to trade in the direction of the bigger uptrend after a pullback. The trick is to identify the bigger uptrend and then capture mean-reversion setups. Mean-reversion setups materialize after a pullback within the uptrend. The strategy is based on the assumption that prices will... READ MORE
The resurgence of small-caps has been greatly exaggerated. Consider this. The S&P 500 SPDR (_SPY) bottomed on August 5th and broke above its August highs on September 5th. The Russell 2000 iShares (_IWM) bottomed on August 27th and broke above its August highs on September 10th. SPY bottomed... READ MORE
After studying the charts in my core ETF list, I came up with eight groupings. The top three groups represent ETFs that are still in uptrends, while the bottom three groups represent ETFs that are in downtrends and lagging overall. The middle groups are in flux. Group 4 represents ETFs... READ MORE
The S&P SmallCap iShares (IJR) and Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) are leading the market in September with 8.22% and 7.66% gains, respectively. As the PerfChart below shows, these gains are more than double the gains in the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), Nasdaq 100 ETF... READ MORE
There are still plenty of strong uptrends out there in ETF land, but we are seeing a bit of rotation in the stock market. The Utilities SPDR (XLU), Real Estate SPDR (XLRE) and Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) remain in uptrends, but they corrected the last six days as some out... READ MORE
Stocks surged the last 12 days with small-caps leading the way higher. The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) is up 6.8% and the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is up 4.6%. Even though small-caps are leading short-term, they are still lagging on the three and six month timeframes.... READ MORE
It was a big week for stocks and the breadth indicators backed up the bullish price action. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) broke out of its August range to signal a continuation of the bigger uptrend. Even though the Index Breadth Model turned bearish in mid August, the... READ MORE
Major bullish reversal patterns signal the start of new up trends that can extend and be very profitable. However, chartists must first learn to distinguish between meaningful patterns and irrelevant patterns. Here's how... There are three parts to a major bullish reversal pattern. First, there is the price... READ MORE
Today we will rank and group the key ETFs that I follow. Instead of showing all five groups, like in last week's commentary, I will focus the middle three groups, which I think are the most interesting and still have potential. I am not even going to cover... READ MORE
The S&P 500 and SPY are challenging their August highs again and large-cap breadth is stronger than breadth in mid-caps and small-caps. Since we seem to be on a day-to-day situation with the S&P 500 and this trading range, I will provide another short-term breadth update.... READ MORE
Even though trend continuations are more likely than trend reversals, reversals do occur and chartists looking for price reversals should understand the classic patterns. While perusing through the charts today, I found a stock with a classic reversal pattern and a breakout in the works. Even though reversal patterns are... READ MORE
As noted in Tuesday's commentary, the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and several big sector SPDRs remain locked in trading ranges. SPY fell back from range resistance with a modest decline on Tuesday (-.58%). It certainly could have been worst. As the chart below shows, SPY... READ MORE
Stocks opened strong on Friday morning and then sold off ahead of a three day weekend. Well, the weekend has passed and stocks are set to open lower on Tuesday. What a surprise! August was volatile for the S&P 500. And yet it was also not volatile. The... READ MORE
Today we will look at charts for the biggest stocks in the Nasdaq 100 ETF. Even though the big tech titans dominate QQQ, note that Pepsi (PEP) is the 10th largest stock and accounts for 2.3%. PEP is obviously part of the Consumer Staples sector. The top five stocks... READ MORE
The broader market may not seem bullish right now, but there is clearly a bull market somewhere within stocks. In particular, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are currently within five percent of all time highs, which were hit just five weeks ago. Moreover, they held well above... READ MORE
Today I am breaking my ETF chart list into five groups and showing these groups in order of performance, strongest to weakest. After analyzing and comparing these price charts, five clear groups emerged. First, there are ETFs with very strong uptrends that look very extended. Second, there are ETFs with... READ MORE
The pickings are getting slim as the broader market destabilizes. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remain above their 200-day SMAs, but the S&P Mid-Cap 400 and Russell 2000 are below these key moving averages. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (_XLY), Communication Services SPDR (_XLC) and Consumer... READ MORE
Stocks were hit hard in early August with SPY and QQQ falling six to seven percent in six days. These declines started from new highs in late July, which is when these prizefighters were at peak performance. The sharpness of the declines is like a prizefighter getting blindsided and knocked... READ MORE
The 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) and Gold SPDR (GLD) are on a tear, but they are getting stretched by one key metric and could be ripe for a corrective period. There are numerous ways to measure overbought (extended) conditions. Indicators like RSI (above 70) and the Stochastic Oscillator (above... READ MORE
The performance for the S&P 500, S&P Mid-Cap 400 and S&P Small-Cap 600 over the last 3, 6, 9 and 12 months pretty much says it all. The S&P 500 is positive on all four timeframes, the S&P Small-Cap 600... READ MORE
As noted in a separate commentary, the State of the Stock Market is shaky. The Technology sector is holding up, but we are seeing weakness within Finance, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Communication Services. The Technology sector is the biggest sector in the S&P 500 SPDR (22%) and EW... READ MORE
Taking a top-down approach to the stock market, we can break down the major indexes into sectors, the sectors into industry groups and the industry groups into individual stocks. There are eleven sector SPDRs and three clear leaders. The Utilities SPDR (XLU) and Real Estate SPDR (XLRE) hit new highs... READ MORE
Volatility is clearly on the uptick with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) moving more than 1% nine times since July 31st. This follows a period from early June to late July when the 1-day Rate-of-Change exceeded 1% just once, and the market moved steadily higher. Ah, the good... READ MORE
Some stocks fit nicely into sectors and industry groups. And some don't. Cerner (CERN) is part of the Health Care SPDR (XLV), but it is really a technology stock that serves the healthcare industry. Namely, Cerner provides information technology solutions for the healthcare industry. More importantly, the price... READ MORE
Stocks rebounded on Friday with small-caps leading the way. The Russell 2000 surged 2.19%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.44% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.59%. Despite these sizable rebounds, all three were down for the week and still down between 4.5% and 5.... READ MORE
Sector Breadth Model Takes another Hit Today I will rank and analyze the charts for the eleven sector SPDRs, but I will first cover the sector breadth table, which reflects the internal strength/weakness within each sector. Sometimes there is a discrepancy between the sector SPDR chart and the breadth... READ MORE
Watch for Rising Correlation ...The overall state of the stock market is the most important factor to consider when trading or investing in stocks. Broad market movements, by definition, affect most stocks. When the major stock indexes are trending lower, most stocks will also trend lower. Some will buck the... READ MORE
The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) has been underperforming for some time now and remains the weakest of the major index ETFs. The chart below shows IWM forming a lower high from May to July and a lower low from March to May. Adding a couple of trend lines to these... READ MORE
If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs ....Rudyard Kipling The line above comes from the Poem, "If" by Rudyard Kipling. We can rephrase this when looking at stocks over the last few weeks. If a stock can hold above the late July... READ MORE
The S&P 500 hit a new high in late July and then got pummeled in early August with a sharp decline that broke the 50-day EMA. Moving averages like this can serve benchmark levels that chartists can use to compare performance. Stocks and ETFs that did not break... READ MORE
Volatility reared its ugly head this week with the S&P 500 falling around 6% in six days and then rebounding with a sharp three-day bounce. This is the biggest decline since the May-June correction, and the sharpest decline since early December. Looking back, the S&P 500... READ MORE
Stocks were hit hard in August with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) moving below its 50-day line and mid July lows. Stocks and ETFs that did not break their 50-day lines and held above their mid July lows are showing relative "chart" strength. Lockheed Martin (LMT)... READ MORE
Stocks were pummeled on Monday with the S&P 500 falling the most (2.98%) since December 2018. The Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 also fell more than 3% with widespread selling pressure. I am not going to start the blame game (tariffs, the Fed, early August seasonal patterns,... READ MORE
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is down sharply this morning and over the last six days. The ETF hit a new all time high less than two weeks ago and remains above its 200-day SMA, and its early June low. This suggests that the long-term trend remains up.... READ MORE
Stocks were hit with some of the strongest selling pressure since December as the S&P 500 fell 3.10% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 4.04%. These weekly declines were the largest since mid December. The Russell 2000 held up the best with a 2.87% decline, which... READ MORE