Relative weakness in small-caps remains a concern for the broader market. Smaller companies are less diversified and have less exposure abroad, which makes them more vulnerable to changes in the domestic economy. As such, small companies are like the canaries in the economic coal mine. They are the first to... READ MORE
The PerfChart below shows the performance for eight commodity related securities during February. Seven of eight are up with oil leading the charge. Even natural gas was higher. After a big hit on Wednesday, gold is the laggard and the Gold SPDR (GLD) shows a modest loss. Click this image... READ MORE
The bulk of the evidence remains bullish, but there was one downgrade on the indicator summary. Small-caps have seriously underperformed large-caps in February and the Price Relative ($RUT:$OEX) ratio moved sharply lower. Even though I am not quite ready to turn bearish on this indicator, it did merit a... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) remains in an uptrend as buying pressure continues to outpace selling pressure. This is clear by the succession of higher highs and higher lows since December 19th. Even though this uptrend is overextended and ripe for a correction, there are simply no signs... READ MORE
The Point & Figure chart below shows the Nasdaq forming two lows in the 1200 area and then breaking above its intermittent high this year. It looks like a massive Double Bottom with an upside price target around 5000. Each box equals 100 points to insure a long-term chart going... READ MORE
Stocks surged on the open with SPY and QQQ hitting new highs for the move, but promptly fell back and the major index ETFs closed with modest losses. Even though the opening gap-surge failed to hold, selling pressure was not that strong and the major index ETFs remain well above... READ MORE
AA Breaks Wedge Trendline. AKS Shows Serious Relative Weakness. BAC Forms Pennant after Sharp Advance. PLus C, DOW, NOC This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
The major index market carpet shows the Dow Transports underperforming with its components showing more down days than up days in February. Since 31-Jan, the Trannies show -2 for net up days-down days for all components. This indicator counts the number of days each stock moves higher and then subtracts... READ MORE
With another strong close and leadership from large-cap tech stocks, SPY and QQQ extended their uptrends and there is no change in the overall picture. Stocks remain overbought and ripe for a corrective period, which could form as a pullback or a flat consolidation. As noted last week, many pundits... READ MORE
The CRB Index ($CRB) and the 10-year Treasury Note ($UST) usually move in opposite directions. However, as the John Murphy's Intermarket PerfChart shows, this has not been the case the last six days. Even though the CRB Index is up over 2% since 17-Feb, the 10-year Treasury Note... READ MORE
The warning signs persist, but stocks remain in clear uptrends and selling pressure remains muted. First, recent strength in treasuries is a concern because they are negatively correlated with stocks. Second, the major index ETFs are overextended and ripe for a pullback or consolidation. Third, small-caps have been underperforming since... READ MORE
KR Confirms Harami with High Volume Surge. STT Challenges Triangle Trendline. TSN Firms at the 50% Retracement Line. Plus ADP and LLY. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)... READ MORE
The rally in the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) has been rather sharp, but the ETF has still only recovered half the prior loss. Notice how FXE declined from 142 to 126 (16 points) and then advanced to 134 (8 points). Like the October surge, this advance could be just a... READ MORE
It was a rather strange week on the intermarket front. Stocks and oil moved higher, which is normal. However, treasuries also moved higher, which is not normal. Strength in stocks and oil should be offset by weakness in treasuries. Strength in treasuries could signal that some traders are taking a... READ MORE
The chart below shows weekly Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks, which combine price action from two weeks to form a composite candlestick. As of this week, SPY formed nine white (hollow) Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks in a row and shows no weakness. The first long black candlestick would suggest that a corrective period is starting.... READ MORE
Unsurprisingly, there is no change in the indicator summary as stocks held their gains this week. Trading turned a little more indecisive, but we have yet to see any signs of significant selling pressure. The NYSE AD Line hit another new 52-week high this week, the AD Volume Lines remain... READ MORE
There are no major changes on the charts. However, yesterday was a bit strange because both treasuries and stocks moved higher. The 7-10 year T-Bond ETF (IEF) was up .14% and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was up .44%. Despite a day astray, stocks remains in clear uptrends... READ MORE
Boeing (BA) moved into a tight range the last 5-6 weeks and the Bollinger Bands contracted to their narrowest in over six months. This signals a volatility contraction, which in turn could foreshadow a volatility expansion. Watch resistance from the February highs and support from the February low for the... READ MORE
Stocks edged lower on Wednesday as commodities moved higher. There is generally a positive correlation between stocks and commodities, including gold. The Dollar and commodities are generally negatively correlated, as are stocks and treasures. Even though intermarket relationships are important, my first focus is on the individual price charts because... READ MORE
Bollinger Bands Narrow for BA as Ascending Triangle Forms. GFI Firms at Key Retracement. GOOG Forms Harami at Resistance. Plus ABX and ORCL. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or... READ MORE
The PerfChart below shows the performance for ten currencies since January (year-to-date). The traditional safe-haven currencies are down (Dollar and Yen), while two emerging market currencies are up (Real and Peso). The Euro is also up, which reflects the current risk-on environment for the stock market. Click this image for... READ MORE
Even though the major index ETFs remain in uptrends, signs of weakness are emerging under the hood and stocks are ripe for a corrective period. First, small-caps continue to show relative weakness since 3-Feb, which is when IWM peaked. Second, sentiment remains overtly bullish as the 10-day SMA of the... READ MORE
The Retail SPDR (XRT) hit a new high with a gap last week, but failed to hold this gap as a bearish engulfing pattern formed on Tuesday. Volume also perked up to its highest level in four days. After a rally from 52 to 59, the ETF could correct back... READ MORE
Stocks have been overbought for weeks, but the uptrend just keeps extending. SPY is a classic example of an index ETF becoming overbought and remaining overbought. The ETF broke resistance on 19-Dec to start the current uptrend, which is some nine weeks old. SPY was up over 7% in mid... READ MORE
ATVI Edges Higher within Rising Wedge. IPI Consolidates after Breakout. LLY Gaps above Falling Wedge Trendline. Plus ALK, BSX, CTSH, IPI, OMX This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)... READ MORE
Of the nine sector SPDRs, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and the Technology SPDR (XLK) have the highest StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR). The SCTR for the Industrials SPDR (XLI) is in a close third. High SCTR scores indicate that these sectors show excellent relative strength and market leadership. Click this... READ MORE
The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) opened weak with a print below 53, but then recovered with a high volume rally and close near 55. Overall, Thursday's long white candlestick engulfed the prior four candlesticks. At the very least, this establishes support with Thursday's low. Follow through... READ MORE
There is no change in the indicator summary as stocks maintain their gains and show no signs of significant selling pressure. While this rally is certainly getting overextended, it takes actual selling pressure to produce a pullback. None of the indicator groups shows weakness just yet. The Nasdaq AD Volume... READ MORE
Stocks may seem overbought, sentiment may seem too bullish and the odds of a correction may seem high, but a pullback cannot materialize until there is a noticeable and sustainable increase in selling pressure. This means we need to see more than a day of selling pressure AND some sort... READ MORE
Apple is no doubt in a strong uptrend, but the recent move went parabolic as the trendline slope steepened for the third time. The latest surge from 420 to 520 was pretty much straight up. With a high-volume bearish engulfing pattern taking shape on Wednesday, the stock could be ripe... READ MORE
The Dollar broke resistance, the Euro moved lower and stocks gave up early gains with a rather sharp afternoon sell-off. Conditions remain ripe for a corrective period and stocks are showing signs of fatigue. In particular, Apple-less small-caps have been relatively weak since IWM peaked on February 3rd and sentiment... READ MORE
BBY Hits Resistance at Key Retracement. MMM Stalls as Bollinger Bands Contract. VZ Forms Triangle within Downtrend. Plus ATVI, PNRA, TGT This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We... READ MORE
After a sharp move lower from late November to early February, the S&P 500 VIX ETN (VXX) bounced the last seven days with its biggest move since November. Volume also surged. It appears that traders are taking out a little insurance with the stock market so overbought. Click... READ MORE
Stocks edged lower most of the day and then surged in the final 30 minutes. Even the smallest of dips brought out the bulls. I would hazard a guess that a fair amount of money missed this rally and some of it is on the sidelines waiting for a pullback.... READ MORE
The ETF Market Summary shows commodity ETFs under pressure during the day Tuesday. The Coffee (JO) and Sugar (SGG) ETFs were leading the way down. The Copper ETF (CU) and Palladium (PALL) ETFs, which represent industrial metals, were also weak. Click this chart for a live image... READ MORE
Is it turnaround Tuesday? Stocks are in uptrends, but way overbought and ripe for a corrective period. Small-caps (IWM) are lagging large-caps (SPY) the last 6-7 days and this is a sign of market fatigue. The Dollar is way oversold and ripe for a bounce, which could facilitate a stock... READ MORE
AMZN Fills the Gap. NIHD Forms Tight Consolidation after Breakout. SFD Shows Relative Weakness with Falling SCTR. Plus FRX,MCK,PLCE,SNDK,WAG This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or... READ MORE
While the market moves higher on Monday, First Solar (FSLR) is moving lower with its second long black candlestick. Also notice that the stock failed at resistance near 50 for the second time in three months. Click this chart for a live image... READ MORE
Asian and European markets are in a risk-on mood after the Greek parliament passed the austerity package. This mood is extending to US stock futures, which are up modestly in pre-market trading. Gold, oil and the Euro are high, while the Dollar and treasuries are lower. For stocks, the uptrends... READ MORE
The chart below shows the S&P 500 ETF with weekly candles and weekly MACD (12,26,9). Even though some signals may seem late, this classic indicator combines trend following and momentum to keep players on the right side of trend. Moves above the signal line favor the... READ MORE