The Home Construction iShares (ITB) corrected over the last few weeks with a falling flag pattern taking shape. The flag is still falling, but the Commodity Channel Index is rebounding with a move back above -100 (oversold). The next step for CCI is a trendline break. Click this image for... READ MORE
Stocks clearly broke down with a broad-based decline on Tuesday. Even though the short-term trend is now down, keep in mind that stocks are already short-term oversold and the medium-term trend is still up. On the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) chart, the ETF broke... READ MORE
With stocks down sharply in early trading on Tuesday, it is little surprise that the Sector Market Carpet shows a sea of red and all sectors are lower. There are, however, a few gainers and three come from the consumer discretionary sector, strangely enough. Morgan Stanley, the biggest loser, is... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) dipped below 137 on Monday. While this is still viewed as a correction within an uptrend, note that RSI dipped to its lowest level since mid December. StochRSI also dipped below .20 twice and failed to break back above the resistance zone (.50-... READ MORE
CAKE Consolidates after Sharp Decline. EXPD Surges to Resistance. MRK Bounds off October Trendline. Plus CVH, UIS, UNP This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all... READ MORE
With the volatility contracting over the last few weeks, the Bollinger Bands on the Utilities SPDR (XLU) are at their narrowest since March 2011. The Bollinger BandWdith indicator is below .50 and the XLU range has narrowed to 75 cents. Watch support and resistance for the next directional clue. Click... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF and Nasdaq 100 ETF remain in uptrends, but the Russell 2000 ETF broke support and the Dollar ETF appears to be breaking out. Relative weakness in small-caps and strength in the greenback could further weigh on stocks, which are still overbought and ripe... READ MORE
Relative weakness in small-caps remains a concern for the broader market. Smaller companies are less diversified and have less exposure abroad, which makes them more vulnerable to changes in the domestic economy. As such, small companies are like the canaries in the economic coal mine. They are the first... READ MORE
The PerfChart below shows the performance for eight commodity related securities during February. Seven of eight are up with oil leading the charge. Even natural gas was higher. After a big hit on Wednesday, gold is the laggard and the Gold SPDR (GLD) shows a modest loss. Click this image... READ MORE
The bulk of the evidence remains bullish, but there was one downgrade on the indicator summary. Small-caps have seriously underperformed large-caps in February and the Price Relative ($RUT:$OEX) ratio moved sharply lower. Even though I am not quite ready to turn bearish on this indicator, it did... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) remains in an uptrend as buying pressure continues to outpace selling pressure. This is clear by the succession of higher highs and higher lows since December 19th. Even though this uptrend is overextended and ripe for a correction, there are simply no signs... READ MORE
The Point & Figure chart below shows the Nasdaq forming two lows in the 1200 area and then breaking above its intermittent high this year. It looks like a massive Double Bottom with an upside price target around 5000. Each box equals 100 points to insure a long-term chart... READ MORE
Stocks surged on the open with SPY and QQQ hitting new highs for the move, but promptly fell back and the major index ETFs closed with modest losses. Even though the opening gap-surge failed to hold, selling pressure was not that strong and the major index ETFs remain well... READ MORE
AA Breaks Wedge Trendline. AKS Shows Serious Relative Weakness. BAC Forms Pennant after Sharp Advance. PLus C, DOW, NOC This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We... READ MORE
The major index market carpet shows the Dow Transports underperforming with its components showing more down days than up days in February. Since 31-Jan, the Trannies show -2 for net up days-down days for all components. This indicator counts the number of days each stock moves higher and... READ MORE
With another strong close and leadership from large-cap tech stocks, SPY and QQQ extended their uptrends and there is no change in the overall picture. Stocks remain overbought and ripe for a corrective period, which could form as a pullback or a flat consolidation. As noted last week, many... READ MORE
The CRB Index ($CRB) and the 10-year Treasury Note ($UST) usually move in opposite directions. However, as the John Murphy's Intermarket PerfChart shows, this has not been the case the last six days. Even though the CRB Index is up over 2% since 17-Feb, the 10-... READ MORE
The warning signs persist, but stocks remain in clear uptrends and selling pressure remains muted. First, recent strength in treasuries is a concern because they are negatively correlated with stocks. Second, the major index ETFs are overextended and ripe for a pullback or consolidation. Third, small-caps have been underperforming... READ MORE
KR Confirms Harami with High Volume Surge. STT Challenges Triangle Trendline. TSN Firms at the 50% Retracement Line. Plus ADP and LLY. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF... READ MORE
The rally in the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) has been rather sharp, but the ETF has still only recovered half the prior loss. Notice how FXE declined from 142 to 126 (16 points) and then advanced to 134 (8 points). Like the October surge, this advance could be just a... READ MORE
It was a rather strange week on the intermarket front. Stocks and oil moved higher, which is normal. However, treasuries also moved higher, which is not normal. Strength in stocks and oil should be offset by weakness in treasuries. Strength in treasuries could signal that some traders are taking a... READ MORE
The chart below shows weekly Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks, which combine price action from two weeks to form a composite candlestick. As of this week, SPY formed nine white (hollow) Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks in a row and shows no weakness. The first long black candlestick would suggest that a corrective period... READ MORE
Unsurprisingly, there is no change in the indicator summary as stocks held their gains this week. Trading turned a little more indecisive, but we have yet to see any signs of significant selling pressure. The NYSE AD Line hit another new 52-week high this week, the AD Volume Lines... READ MORE
There are no major changes on the charts. However, yesterday was a bit strange because both treasuries and stocks moved higher. The 7-10 year T-Bond ETF (IEF) was up .14% and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was up .44%. Despite a day astray, stocks remains in... READ MORE
Boeing (BA) moved into a tight range the last 5-6 weeks and the Bollinger Bands contracted to their narrowest in over six months. This signals a volatility contraction, which in turn could foreshadow a volatility expansion. Watch resistance from the February highs and support from the February low for... READ MORE
Stocks edged lower on Wednesday as commodities moved higher. There is generally a positive correlation between stocks and commodities, including gold. The Dollar and commodities are generally negatively correlated, as are stocks and treasures. Even though intermarket relationships are important, my first focus is on the individual price charts because... READ MORE
Bollinger Bands Narrow for BA as Ascending Triangle Forms. GFI Firms at Key Retracement. GOOG Forms Harami at Resistance. Plus ABX and ORCL. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock... READ MORE
The PerfChart below shows the performance for ten currencies since January (year-to-date). The traditional safe-haven currencies are down (Dollar and Yen), while two emerging market currencies are up (Real and Peso). The Euro is also up, which reflects the current risk-on environment for the stock market.... READ MORE
Even though the major index ETFs remain in uptrends, signs of weakness are emerging under the hood and stocks are ripe for a corrective period. First, small-caps continue to show relative weakness since 3-Feb, which is when IWM peaked. Second, sentiment remains overtly bullish as the 10-day... READ MORE
The Retail SPDR (XRT) hit a new high with a gap last week, but failed to hold this gap as a bearish engulfing pattern formed on Tuesday. Volume also perked up to its highest level in four days. After a rally from 52 to 59, the ETF could correct back... READ MORE
Stocks have been overbought for weeks, but the uptrend just keeps extending. SPY is a classic example of an index ETF becoming overbought and remaining overbought. The ETF broke resistance on 19-Dec to start the current uptrend, which is some nine weeks old. SPY was up over 7% in... READ MORE
ATVI Edges Higher within Rising Wedge. IPI Consolidates after Breakout. LLY Gaps above Falling Wedge Trendline. Plus ALK, BSX, CTSH, IPI, OMX This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF... READ MORE
Of the nine sector SPDRs, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and the Technology SPDR (XLK) have the highest StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR). The SCTR for the Industrials SPDR (XLI) is in a close third. High SCTR scores indicate that these sectors show excellent relative strength and market leadership. Click this... READ MORE
The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) opened weak with a print below 53, but then recovered with a high volume rally and close near 55. Overall, Thursday's long white candlestick engulfed the prior four candlesticks. At the very least, this establishes support with Thursday's low. Follow through... READ MORE
There is no change in the indicator summary as stocks maintain their gains and show no signs of significant selling pressure. While this rally is certainly getting overextended, it takes actual selling pressure to produce a pullback. None of the indicator groups shows weakness just yet. The Nasdaq AD Volume... READ MORE
Stocks may seem overbought, sentiment may seem too bullish and the odds of a correction may seem high, but a pullback cannot materialize until there is a noticeable and sustainable increase in selling pressure. This means we need to see more than a day of selling pressure AND some sort... READ MORE
Apple is no doubt in a strong uptrend, but the recent move went parabolic as the trendline slope steepened for the third time. The latest surge from 420 to 520 was pretty much straight up. With a high-volume bearish engulfing pattern taking shape on Wednesday, the stock could be... READ MORE
The Dollar broke resistance, the Euro moved lower and stocks gave up early gains with a rather sharp afternoon sell-off. Conditions remain ripe for a corrective period and stocks are showing signs of fatigue. In particular, Apple-less small-caps have been relatively weak since IWM peaked on February... READ MORE
BBY Hits Resistance at Key Retracement. MMM Stalls as Bollinger Bands Contract. VZ Forms Triangle within Downtrend. Plus ATVI, PNRA, TGT This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or... READ MORE
After a sharp move lower from late November to early February, the S&P 500 VIX ETN (VXX) bounced the last seven days with its biggest move since November. Volume also surged. It appears that traders are taking out a little insurance with the stock market so overbought. Click... READ MORE