With further strength this week, it is little surprise that the indicator summary remains unchanged at +10. Even though there are no signs of weakness, there are plenty of overbought signs. Eight of the nine sector Bullish Percent Indices are above 80%. The current advance in the major index ETFs... READ MORE
While the medium-term and long-term outlooks remain bullish, stocks are in a rather precarious short-term situation. The major index ETFs are overbought, sentiment is excessively bullish and Greek lawmakers have yet to pass the austerity measures required to receive EU aid. Greek legislators and the EU are likely playing a... READ MORE
The PerfChart below shows a selection of intermarket related ETFs. Notice that the Commodity Index Fund (DBC), Base Metals ETF (DBB) and Gold SPDR (GLD) are up substantially year-to-date, as are stocks. In contrast, the Dollar and Treasury ETFs are down. Money is embracing risk this year. Click here for... READ MORE
The bulls are piling on. While we can never be sure when exactly it happened, note that Nouriel Roubini, aka Dr. Doom, recently turned bullish. In fact, his director of equity and allocation strategy, Gina Sanchez, suggested that the current rally could extend for months. However, Roubini is looking for... READ MORE
CPN Surges above Resistance with Big Volume. GFI Forms Pennant Consolidation. WLL Breaks Ascending Triangle Resistance. Plus ABX, GG, YHOO This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all... READ MORE
The stock market is clearly in rally mode this year with the offensive sectors leading the charge. Notice that the consumer discretionary, industrials, finance and technology sectors are outperforming the S&P 500. In contrast, the consumer staples, healthcare and utilities sectors, which are defensive, are lagging the S&... READ MORE
After a narrow day for Average True Range (ATR) indicator on Monday, stocks started the day weak on Tuesday, but quickly recovered and moved into positive territory. Even though stocks are overbought and ripe for a correction, selling pressure remains minimal and the bulls still reign supreme. SPY held support... READ MORE
The Utilities SPDR (XLU) was relatively weak in January as it failed to partake in the broad market advance. More recently, the ETF surged in late January and again on Tuesday with moves that reinforce support in the 34-34.5 area. MACD flattened over the last two weeks and a... READ MORE
Today could be volatile. First, stocks are overbought after a seven week advance. Second, Bernanke testifies before Congress today. Third, Greek debt negotiations continue and Greek unions put out the call for a general strike on Tuesday. Fourth, the Euro is short-term overbought and consolidating, while the Dollar is short-term... READ MORE
$AEO Retraces 61.80% with Rising Wedge. $DVN Forms Large Triangle Consolidation. Plus $ADP, $PLCE, $WCRX This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for... READ MORE
Despite all the "issues" surrounding Europe, the German DAX Index ($DAX) is going strong and outperforming the S&P 500. In fact, the DAX is outperforming the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) and the Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) as well. The chart below shows that the DAX is up a... READ MORE
Stocks extended their short-term uptrends with strong moves on Friday. SPY, QQQ and IWM all hit new highs for the move and the short-term uptrends are now entering their eighth week. These moves started with a gap and breakout on December 19th. Overall, stocks are still quite overbought and ripe... READ MORE
With a string of positive economic reports lifting stocks this week, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed higher for the fifth consecutive week. Friday was a big reporting day with Factory Orders showing strength, IWM Services indicating expansion and the employment rate coming down. These positive reports should... READ MORE
As the Sector Market Carpet shows, the finance sector has the biggest average gain (2.4%) thus far on Friday. Technology is second with the average stock gaining 1.9% on the day. Notice that the boxes are different sizes because of market cap mode. Stocks with the highest market... READ MORE
There is no change in the indicator summary as all ten indicator groups remain in bull mode. The NYSE AD Line surged to yet another 52-week high and the Nasdaq AD Volume Line moved sharply higher the last six weeks. All nine Bullish Percent Indices are above 60% and seven... READ MORE
And now for the Employment Report....and Factory Orders....and ISM Services. This is like the golden trio of economic reports. In one day we will cover employment, manufacturing and services. Stocks are overbought. Treasuries are at resistance and well above their late January lows. The Dollar is oversold after... READ MORE
The stock market rallied in January, but Nordstrom (JWN) traded flat and shows relative weakness. Even though the stock has yet to break down, volatility is narrowing as the Bollinger Bands contract. Notice that Bollinger Band width is at its lowest in over six months. Watch the range for the... READ MORE
According to the Wall Street Journal, "Caterpillar's 20% stock surge this month contributed nearly 34% of the Dow Jones Industrial Average's 415-point advance." As a price weighted "average" the highest priced issues in the Dow carry the most weight. This is also... READ MORE
The first trading day of the month produced a relatively modest gain in the S&P 500 ETF, but big gains in the Russell 2000 ETF and S&P MidCap 400 SPDR. Stocks gapped up on the open and then consolidated above their gaps. Even though there was... READ MORE
Careful out there. It is still earnings season. AGN Forms Outside Reversal at Resistance. CHH Forms Bearish Wedge and Bearish Engulfing. IMN Traces out Ascending Triangle. Plus AMX and CVN This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or... READ MORE
The intermarket arena shows a shift from risk-on to risk-off over the last six to seven days. The 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (TLT) and the Gold SPDR (GLD) are up over 4%, while the US Oil Fund (USO) and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) are down slightly. The... READ MORE
Electronic Art (ERTS) declined to the August low in mid January and then firmed the last two weeks. A bullish engulfing formed on Friday as the stock opened weak and closed strong. ERTS follow up on this pattern with a breakout on above average volume. The trend since November remains... READ MORE
Stocks corrected somewhat over the last three days, but managed to recover after a weak open on Monday. Risk-on is in the air this morning after the EU agreed to a "fiscal compact". Stocks futures, oil, gold and the Euro are higher in early trading (4AM ET). On... READ MORE
Care out there. It is still earnings season. ARO Consolidates after Triangle Breakout. CERN Firms at Key Retracement. NBR Bounces off Triangle Support. Plus ATVI, NTAP, PTEN and VIP. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell... READ MORE
Oracle (ORCL) surged back above 28 this month, but stalled the last few weeks as resistance came into play. First, notice that broken support turns resistance around 28.50. Second, the stock retraced 50-61.80% of the prior decline. A pennant formed the last two weeks and traders should watch... READ MORE
Even though the short-term uptrends remain in place, the major index ETFs are overbought and ripe for a correction. Corrections can evolve as pullbacks or sideways trading ranges. A pullback that retraces around 50% of the prior advance (19-Dec to 26-Jan) might be playable for a short-term trader. A sideways... READ MORE
Spot Light Crude ($WTIC) surged above 100 in the second half of December and then formed a falling wedge in January. A decline in oil is unusual because the Dollar is down over the last few weeks and stocks are up. A move above 102 would break wedge resistance and... READ MORE
With one more upgrade, all ten indicator groups are in bull mode. Relative performance of small-caps was the lagging indicator, but small-cap performance perked up this month as the $RUT:$OEX ratio broke above its December highs. Even though stocks look short-term and medium-term overextended, there are simply no signs... READ MORE
Stocks opened strong and then sold off to close with small losses. A little pop and drop is normal with the stock market so overbought. Even so, selling pressure was not that strong and the short-term uptrends remain in place. All sectors were lower with energy leading the way (-1.... READ MORE
With stocks opening strong and then moving sharply lower, the intraday bearish engulfing scan is filling up quite quickly. Of note, the Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) has a bearish engulfing in play on Thursday afternoon. In fact, notice how the ETF pretty much engulfed the last 11 days of trading... READ MORE
CMA Stalls at Key Retracement. SSP Consolidates with Triangle Formation. UIS Bounces off Key Retracement with High Volume. Plus JPC, JWN, WHR This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)... READ MORE
There is nothing like a little Fed frenzy. Stocks surged after the Fed announced an extension of their zero interest rate policy. Treasuries surged ahead of the statement, but gave it all back afterwards. The Dollar fell sharply and commodities surged in the afternoon. Gold was the standout winner with... READ MORE
The Amex Airline Index ($XAL) lagged the market throughout 2011, but may be poised to lead with a breakout in 2012. The P&F chart below is a classic three box reversal chart with each box representing 50 cents. Notice that the current X-Column broke above the last three... READ MORE
Another blowout quarter from Apple is lifting the Nasdaq futures this morning, but the rest of the market is rather subdued as the Fed's policy statement looms this afternoon. Stocks ended mixed on Tuesday as indecision continued ahead of the Fed. Small-caps were higher with the Russell 2000... READ MORE
A look at the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) movers shows Quest Diagnostics with a big move (+37) on Tuesday. On the price chart, DGX broke ascending triangle resistance with a surge in volume today. Click this chart for a live image... READ MORE
It is another big day on the earnings front. McDonalds, Baker Hughes and Air Products report before the open. Apple, Altera, AMD and Yahoo report after the market close. In addition to a big earnings week, we have EU debt wrangling, rumors on Portugal and a FOMC meeting. The US... READ MORE
Careful out there during earnings season. ATVI Declines on High Volume GFI Consolidates Near Wedge Breakout. GT Forms Pennant after Sharp Decline. Plus FST,GFI, LLY, MMM... READ MORE
QQQ opened flat, surged, dipped and then recovered to close basically unchanged on the day. As a result, the ETF formed a long legged doji, which shows indecision on the day. Overall, the trend remains up as the ETF holds above the December trendline. A break below this trendline would... READ MORE
It could be a volatile week, but what else is new. EU finance ministers are meeting to discuss the Greek debt situation because Greece is facing a large rollover in March. The Fed meets on Tuesday-Wednesday with a policy statement expected on Wednesday afternoon. Red-hot housing stocks will be in... READ MORE
The FOMC meets next Tuesday-Wednesday and will make its policy statement Wednesday afternoon. With stocks surging and recent economic reports buoyant, the bond market may be looking ahead to this meeting with trepidation. The first chart shows the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) rising sharply the last three day. Treasury bonds... READ MORE