The market is about as mixed up as it can be right now. With a few downgrades this week, the indicator summary flipped back to negative territory (-2). There are still a few neutral readings out there that could go either way with a significant move. The AD Volume Lines... READ MORE
Stocks got a bounce as the Euro finally firmed for a day. The seasonal patterns for the stock market are still bullish this time of year. These include yearend window dressing, the Santa Claus rally, historic returns in December, the January effect and the six-month cycle. It is also interesting... READ MORE
The risk-off trade remained in force on Wednesday with oil joining the sell-off in stocks, the Euro and gold. US Treasuries and the Dollar benefitted from a flight to safety. Concerns over Europe continue to dominate the headlines as Italian 10-year yields moved to 6.69%. Italy auctioned $3 billion... READ MORE
AEE Forms Pennant after Sharp Decline. CVX Breaks Support on High Volume. GGP Stalls with Bull Flag. Plus AMGN, CPN, GE This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We... READ MORE
After a big surge in late November, the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) pulled back with the rest of the market and formed a falling flag the last few weeks. This is a bullish continuation pattern and a break above 34 would reverse the three week slide. Notice that XLV continues to... READ MORE
Top ten lists for the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) can now be found on the home page (scroll down). Merck (MRK) stands out from the list of stocks with the biggest SCTR change. The SCTR jumped 12.4 as the stock broke flag resistance and challenged its 2011 highs. Click... READ MORE
The risk-off trade took hold in the markets with stocks and the Euro falling. Bonds and the Dollar surged, but oil bucked the trend with a big gain. I am not sure how long oil can hold up in the face of a strong Dollar and weak stock market. In... READ MORE
The Retail SPDR (XRT) is under pressure today after a miss from Best Buy (BBY) and a lackluster Retail Sales report. XRT broke trendline resistance in early December and then consolidated. This breakout is holding, but barely. Consolidation support is set at 52 and a break below this level would... READ MORE
FLEX Flexes its Muscles. MMM Hits Big Resistance Zone. TEVA Forms Bullish Pennant. Plus THO, TTWO, URBN This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think... READ MORE
Even though the seasonal patterns are bullish, stocks remain under pressure and the stt trends are down. The bullish seasonals include the two-year cycle, the fourth year of a presidential term, the six-month cycle, the Santa Claus rally, yearend window dressing and the January effect. On the S&P... READ MORE
Weakness in precious and industrial metals weighed on silver as the Silver Trust (SLV) broke flag support with a sharp decline Monday. This break signals a continuation of the breakdown from mid November. MACD moved below its signal line to turn momentum bearish. Resistance is set at the early December... READ MORE
It looks like we had some sell-the-rumor and buy-the-news. Rumors of an EU breakdown were swirling on Thursday and this caused a sell-off in stocks. However, these rumors were squashed with an agreement to agree on fiscal constraints. Admittedly, we did not get a concrete agreement out of the EU... READ MORE
The Brent Crude ETF (BNO) hit resistance from the summer highs and formed a small Head-and-Shoulders pattern over the last two months. Neckline support is set at 73, a break of which would confirm the pattern. The alternative pattern is a Symmetrical Triangle and a break above the right shoulder... READ MORE
There is not much change in the indicator summary. I upgraded the NYSE AD Line because this chart looks just like the charts for the Nasdaq and NYSE AD Volume Lines. The Nasdaq AD Line remains bearish so the AD Lines as a whole are neutral. Basically, the NYSE AD... READ MORE
The negotiation marathon continues in Brussels. The 27-nation block fell apart as the UK and Hungary opted out of the current deal. Eurocrats are, however, making progress with the remaining 17 plus 6 or so. Nobody really expected an earth shattering agreement that would completely solve the problem. There will... READ MORE
Once again, it is the finance sector feeling the heat from across the pond. This screenshot from the market summary page shows the nine sectors, and all are in the red. In afternoon trading on Thursday, XLF is the only one with a loss greater than 3%. Obviously, the banks... READ MORE
Today is the day - or rather two days. The European Central Bank (ECB) will make its policy statement and the 2-day EU summit starts. There are plenty of good reads and opinions regarding the EU situation. At the end of the day it boils down to probabilities and realities.... READ MORE
ABB Consolidates after Breakout Surge. ECA Bounces off Support for Potential Double Bottom. XRAY Forms Bullish Pennant. Plus ABT and HPQ. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We... READ MORE
Broadcom (BRCM) came across the bullish engulfing scan on Wednesday. After becoming oversold with a sharp decline in November, the stock firmed the last two weeks and formed a bullish engulfing on Wednesday. This white candlestick completely engulfed the prior black candlestick. Volume was also above average. Follow through above... READ MORE
The stock market held its breadth yesterday as the major index ETFs were barely changed the entire day. No change in the short-term uptrend means the short-term uptrend remains in play. According to the financial press, stocks are waiting for clues from Europe, which will start to flow on Thursday.... READ MORE
AGU Consolidates after Island Reversal. MAS Challenges Flag Resistance. SHAW Forms Small Flag after Breakout. Plus ALTR, AMCC, JCOM This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
This could be the week that breaks the bear's back or triggers a sharp reversal at resistance. While US ties to Europe are relatively small as a percentage of GDP, Europe's influence on the stock market and Dollar has been relatively large. Today's headlines... READ MORE
The Home Construction iShares (ITB) is one of the strongest industry group ETFs in the market right now. The chart below shows ITB breaking above its mid-November high with a surge the last few days. In the indicator window, the Price Relative confirms relative strength with a move to its... READ MORE
That was one heck of a rally last week. SPY and QQQ surged over 7% and IWM was up over 10%. Was last week's surge an August-September surge or an October surge? A 7% surge in SPY compares to the beginning of October, which preceded a huge advance.... READ MORE
While gaps are not what they used to be, there were a few island reversals on the charts this week. The chart below shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) with a large island reversal over the last three weeks. A bullish island reversal forms with a gap down, a consolidation... READ MORE
With this week's big move, the indicator summary flipped from negative to positive. There are clearly some judgment calls at work here. It really boils down to accepting this week's surge as the real deal. The alternative is that it was just one heck of a... READ MORE
With a gap up on Monday and another on Wednesday, the Finance SPDR (XLF) formed two island reversals over the last three weeks. The first island formed on Friday-Monday (red circle). The second island formed from 21 to 29 November (blue oval). Notice the gaps on either side of these... READ MORE
This market is just itching to continue higher. As I write, the Dow futures are of over 100 points. Hints of a European deal are in the air, the US economic numbers have been pretty good and central banks are printing money. What more could a stock market want? Even... READ MORE
Even though the market moved sharply higher on Wednesday, Watson Pharma could not hold its early gain and closed weak. Wednesday's black/filled candlestick completely engulfed the prior white/hollow candlestick to form a bearish engulfing. Also notice that volume surged. You can read more on candlesticks in... READ MORE
Coordinated action from five central banks sparked a massive rally in the finance sector (+6.17%) that extended to the rest of the market. All sectors were up. Seven of nine were up more than 3%. Utilities and consumer staples were up less than 3%. The materials, energy, finance and... READ MORE
BBY Forms Dark Cloud at Key Retracement. FDX Breaks Flag Resistance. RL Traces out Bear Wedge. Plus AMZN, LOW, LUV, WY This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We... READ MORE
As one of the big money-center banks, JP Morgan (JPM) clearly benefited from the coordinated central bank action on Wednesday. The chart below shows JPM bouncing off support with a big gap on big volume. JPM closed near the high of the day. The gap is bullish as long as... READ MORE
Guess what? Reports indicate that the Euro-zone bailout fund is smaller than EU finance ministers once thought. There is also a "secret" report suggesting that Italy is on the verge of blowing up the Euro zone. Yes, the rumors continue to fly. These latest rumors are putting a... READ MORE
The Airline ETF (FAA) and Spot Light Crude ($WTIC) were moving in the same direction from July to mid October, but went their separate was in late October. Spot Light Crude surged above 100 in November as the Airline ETF tested its early October low. Airlines are clearly not happy... READ MORE
Stocks opened strong and finished strong with a broad advance on Monday. While it is still considered an oversold bounce within a bigger downtrend, there is room for further upside before resistance from broken support levels comes into play. SPY gapped up to form an island reversal over the last... READ MORE
DDS Forms Pennant after Sharp Decline. LH Challenges Flag Resistance. SUN Gaps above Wedge Resistance. Plus AZO and TGT. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
The indicator window shows the US Gasoline Fund (UGA) peaking in mid October (blue) and moving lower the last six weeks, while the US Oil Fund (USO) continued moving higher (red). Something needs to give here. Notice that UGA formed a large descending triangle the last 5-6 months and a... READ MORE
Stock futures are trading sharply higher on news (rumors) of an Italian bailout. Also note that it is a big week on the economic front. See the listing of economic reports further down in this commentary. Market moving rumors and innuendo are all part of the game these days. Traders... READ MORE
Wal-Mart (WMT) remains in an uptrend overall, but may be poised for a correction as Black Friday comes and goes. The stock declined sharply in mid November and then consolidated the last 6-7 days. Watch for a break from this consolidation to trigger the next signal. Click this chart for... READ MORE
After forming a rising wedge in October, the German DAX reversed in the key retracement zone and broke support with a sharp decline below 5700 the last few days. These are clearly bearish developments. Broken support in the 5800 area turns first resistance, which is confirmed by the trendline extending... READ MORE