As much as people speak of gold's value as a safe haven, its performance in 2020 has done much to dispel that investment thesis. Recent months have seen gold and gold stocks underperforming the S&P 500. Is the pattern of new highs for stocks and new... READ MORE
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." - Sir John Templeton My macro process has three key steps: Price, Breadth and Sentiment. While most measures of price and breadth indicate the bull market is in decent shape, the third... READ MORE
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." - Sir John Templeton My macro process has three key steps: Price, Breadth and Sentiment. While most measures of price and breadth indicate the bull market is in decent shape, the third... READ MORE
The S&P 500 wrapped a rather volatile week by settling in at the upper end of the 3200-3600 range. One key breadth indicator shows clear similarities to the bull run in early October, and also provides a prescription for bulls looking for validation of further upside. *** This article... READ MORE
The S&P 500 wrapped a rather volatile week by settling in at the upper end of the 3200-3600 range. One key breadth indicator shows clear similarities to the bull run in early October, and also provides a prescription for bulls looking for validation of further upside. Breadth equals... READ MORE
This past Monday, I asked three experts on the Presidential Cycle - Bruce Fraser, Jeff Hirsch, and Tom McClellan - to share their take on market trends around the election season. They delivered in a big way, and the result was a masterclass in how to learn from market history.... READ MORE
This past Monday, I asked three experts on the Presidential Cycle - Bruce Fraser, Jeff Hirsch, and Tom McClellan - to share their take on market trends around the election season. They delivered in a big way, and the result was a masterclass in how to learn from market history.... READ MORE
I would currently describe myself as a "cautious bull," in that I recognize that the market is trending higher, I'm prepared to follow that trend as long as it continues, and I'm always looking for some signs of potential weakness and/or exhaustion. Over... READ MORE
I would currently describe myself as a "cautious bull," in that I recognize that the market is trending higher, I'm prepared to follow that trend as long as it continues, and I'm always looking for some signs of potential weakness and/or exhaustion. Over... READ MORE
A consistent imperfect routine is way better than an inconsistent perfect routine. When I've worked with investors that are new to technical analysis, I often find that they spend too much time trying to perfect their analytical approach on a particular chart, and way too little time determining... READ MORE
A consistent imperfect routine is way better than an inconsistent perfect routine. When I've worked with investors that are new to technical analysis, I often find that they spend too much time trying to perfect their analytical approach on a particular chart, and way too little time determining... READ MORE
"Great chart, but it seems super short-term. When would you get out of this?" That was the reaction I received on social media when I posted this chart showing the relative strength of semiconductors to the S&P 500. In terms of my process, I focus my... READ MORE
"Great chart, but it seems super short-term. When would you get out of this?" That was the reaction I received on social media when I posted this chart showing the relative strength of semiconductors to the S&P 500. In terms of my process, I focus my... READ MORE
The last five months of market history are a blur for me. Back in mid-March, the S&P 500 was in free fall with no end in sight. Here we are in mid-August, and the S&P is retesting all-time highs. Trend-following is about defining the trend, recognizing... READ MORE
The last five months of market history are a blur for me. Back in mid-March, the S&P 500 was in free fall with no end in sight. Here we are in mid-August, and the S&P is retesting all-time highs. Trend-following is about defining the trend, recognizing... READ MORE
Last week on The Final Bar, one of our Mailbag questions related to Amazon.com (AMZN) and how far it has reached above its 200-day moving average. This phenomenon speaks to the long-term strength of AMZN's price movements, the short-term overreaching of the price since the March market... READ MORE
This week on The Final Bar, one of our Mailbag questions related to Amazon.com (AMZN) and how far it has reached above its 200-day moving average. This phenomenon speaks to the long-term strength of AMZN's price movements, the short-term overreaching of the price since the March market... READ MORE
I wrote this article for last Saturday's ChartWatchers newsletter, focusing on the overbought conditions rampant in mega cap technology and consumer names. Monday's selloff certainly changes the short-term look of most of these charts, potentially beginning the topping process I described below. The next move higher... READ MORE
I've received many questions recently on stocks experiencing overbought conditions, from stocks like Activision Blizzard (ATVI), which recently broke above RSI 70, to Amazon (AMZN), which has an RSI that has breached 80. What does it mean to be overbought? Is that a sell signal? What do I... READ MORE
The S&P 500 index has remained in consolidation mode, spending the shortened holiday week in a rally back to the upper end of the recent trading range. Last week on The Final Bar, I announced "The Mindful Six", a group of six stocks that I feel... READ MORE
The S&P 500 index has remained in consolidation mode, spending the shortened holiday week in a rally back to the upper end of the recent trading range. Last week on The Final Bar,I announced "The Mindful Six", a group of six stocks that I feel... READ MORE
When I'm prioritizing information to help me understand the broad market environment, I tend to consider this as the order of importance: 1. Price 2. Breadth 3. Sentiment I've found sentiment readings such as the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and Investors Intelligence (II) surveys... READ MORE
When I'm prioritizing information to help me understand the broad market environment, I tend to consider this as the order of importance: 1. Price 2. Breadth 3. Sentiment I've found sentiment readings such as the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and Investors Intelligence (II) surveys... READ MORE
I've often said that by looking at individual stocks, you can get a deeper level of understanding of what's moving the overall equity markets. While some investors insist that "a rising tide lifts all boats" and you're better off just following the... READ MORE
Every Friday on The Final Bar, I conduct a weekly chart routine called "Wrap the Week" where we review macro charts and how they've evolved over the previous seven days. This week was focused on the unrelenting uptrend in stocks, but a deeper analysis after the... READ MORE
Every Friday on The Final Bar,I conduct a weekly chart routine called "Wrap the Week" where we review macro charts and how they've evolved over the previous seven days. This week was focused on the unrelenting uptrend in stocks, but a deeper analysis after the... READ MORE
One of my favorite ratios to track offense vs. defense within the equity markets is the Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) divided by the Consumer Staples sector (XLP). But a look under the hood shares narrow leadership and questionable upside. Below, we see the S&P 500 ETF along with... READ MORE
One of my favorite ratios to track offense vs. defense within the equity markets is the Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) divided by the Consumer Staples sector (XLP). But a look under the hood shares narrow leadership and questionable upside. Below, we see the S&P 500 ETF along with... READ MORE
Most of my guests in recent weeks on The Final Barhave embraced the "we're due for a pullback" thesis. From the very bullish (S&P 3600) to the quite bearish (S&P 2000) and everyone in between, it seems most people feel that the... READ MORE
Most of my guests in recent weeks on The Final Barhave embraced the "we're due for a pullback" thesis. From the very bullish (S&P 3600) to the quite bearish (S&P 2000) and everyone in between, it seems most people feel that the... READ MORE
One of the ways I like to measure offensive vs. defensive pressure in the equity market is using the ratio of Consumer Discretionary to Consumer Staples. Watching this ratio can tell you whether institutions are betting more on the "offense," like retail and travel names, or the traditional... READ MORE
Every Monday on StockCharts TV's The Final Bar, we look at the markets from three perspectives: top-down macro, sector rotation and bottom-up stock selection. In this week's review, we identified three sector charts that are potentially turning bearish and suggest broader weakness in the equity space.... READ MORE
As a technical analyst who started my career just after the market top in March 2000, I've had the pleasure (I guess?) of living through a number of previous bear market cycles. I first learned about and started to apply technical analysis during the 2001-2002 bear market, so... READ MORE
As a technical analyst who started my career just after the market top in March 2000, I've had the pleasure (I guess?) of living through a number of previous bear market cycles. I first learned about and started to apply technical analysis during the 2001-2002 bear market, so... READ MORE
My weekly routine involves two important steps. First, in preparation for Friday's edition of The Final Bar, I go through a series of long-term macro charts for my Wrap the Week segment. Second, over the weekend I review the individual stock charts for all the S&P... READ MORE
I very much enjoyed participating in our StockCharts TV special event "Navigating a Bear Market" along with many of my fellow StockCharts contributors. In this article, I'll provide my comments and charts from that special, along with some brief updates on what has changed in the... READ MORE
For this weekend's ChartWatchers newsletter, I shared some perspective on the bullish divergence appearing on the daily S&P 500 chart. It's worth noting that Monday's selloff pushed the S&P down to new lows, invalidating the bullish divergence. As price continues... READ MORE
Every Friday on my show The Final Bar, we answer viewer questions from throughout the past week. One of today's questions related to the potential bullish divergence on the S&P 500 using price and RSI. In this article, I'll share how I think about... READ MORE
Are the markets oversold? Yes. Is it reasonable to expect that next week will see the markets recover at least a bit after this week's mayhem? Absolutely. But here are three charts suggesting that any short-term market bounce will most likely be followed by further downside for stocks.... READ MORE
"How come small-caps aren't doing better when the market's making new highs?" I've heard some version of this question many times over the last couple years, starting with the emergence of the FAANG trade. Once that subsided and the market resumed its... READ MORE