The S&P 500 is going higher. If you knew nothing else about the current market environment, you would consider that to be a bullish indication. As Paul Montgomery once said, "The most bullish thing the market can do is go up." But if you look underneath... READ MORE
I have four paper charts hanging in my office. I use these as the background for most of my videos, and you can usually see one in the background when we shoot The Final Barevery afternoon. I was recently asked why these four charts were worthy of display -- and why... READ MORE
In terms of key developments this week, I would argue that the ten-year Treasury yield breaking below 1.5% was perhaps the most significant. On The Final Bar this week, we've talked about the $140 level on the long bond ETF ($TLT) and how this rotation higher... READ MORE
In John Murphy's classic text Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, he explains that one of the three basic assumptions of technical analysis is that prices move in trends.For anyone that has looked at charts for any amount of time, this seems like an obvious truism. The... READ MORE
As I go through my normal routine of analyzing hundreds of charts every day, or when I'm preparing for my daily closing bell show, I often focus on the "line in the sand" for each chart. That is, what's the point at which you... READ MORE
When a market makes a quick move lower from an established peak, then quickly rebounds back to the upside, you will hear the dreaded phrase "dead cat bounce" emerge on trading floors. What is this pattern, and what can it tell us about next steps for the S&... READ MORE
Last month, we recognized a bearish divergence on the chart of the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX). Soon after, bond prices rallied, pushing interest rates down to an ascending 50-day moving average. Now that this pullback has completed, we're seeing signs of rising rates, which has ripple... READ MORE
I look at hundreds of charts every single day. Every once in a while, I come upon a chart that I feel should be in future textbooks on technical analysis. One chart that seems to provide a perfect example of best practices in price analysis and investor behavior. This week&... READ MORE
It's been a heavy earnings week, with many stocks gapping higher or lower based on investors' reactions to their quarterly results. With two particular stocks, AT&T (T) and Netflix (NFLX), this week was less about their ability to grow earnings and more about their potential... READ MORE
Over the last six weeks, we've seen a dramatic reversal from a rising rate environment to a falling rate environment. While this rotation makes perfect sense from a technical perspective, the fact that the ten-year yield has come down in the face of strong economic data this... READ MORE
Relative strength is one of the most important parts of my technical toolkit. Basically, the idea is to lean into stocks that are working and lean away from stocks that are not working. If that sounds easy, simple and straightforward, that's because it is! This week, I noticed... READ MORE
I have learned over my career to be skeptical. I have learned to question my investment thesis and actively argue the other side of any position to challenge my own analysis. I have learned to actively search out people that disagree with me and try to see what they are... READ MORE
I have learned over my career to be skeptical. I have learned to question my investment thesis and actively argue the other side of any position to challenge my own analysis. I have learned to actively search out people that disagree with me and try to see what they are... READ MORE
I recently tweeted the three steps for the S&P to signal a rotation from bullish phase to bearish phase, especially on the tactical time frame. After taking some time to digest this week's distribution, I wanted to update that thesis with a four step "bull... READ MORE
I've spoken recently of the bearish divergences emerging from breadth indicators, including the anemic new 52-week highs list, as well as a breakdown in the percent of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages. As we recorded Friday's episode of The Final Bar, it... READ MORE
I've spoken recently of the bearish divergences emerging from breadth indicators,including the anemic new 52-week highs list, as well as a breakdown in the percent of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages. As we recorded Friday's episode of The Final Bar, it... READ MORE
Back in early December, we discussed the three signals we would need to see to turn bullish on gold and gold stocks. Although the picture for gold turned more positive that month, a failure at resistance and a return below the 200-day moving average suggest further weakness may be... READ MORE
Back in early December, we discussed the three signals we would need to see to turn bullish on gold and gold stocks. Although the picture for gold turned more positive that month, a failure at resistance and a return below the 200-day moving average suggest further weakness may be... READ MORE
The end of the year tends to provide the perfect opportunity to reflect, renew and refocus. Hopefully, you've taken advantage of the Reflections 2020 specials on StockCharts TV, including my session on the Ten Questions You Should Ask Yourself at Year End! I was asked recently by my... READ MORE
As investors review the performance of stocks in 2020, e-commerce names like AMZN and SHOP exemplify the transition from brick-and-mortar stores to an online shopping experience. In the new year, potential stimulus packages and a rollout of the coronavirus vaccine should allow consumers to go back to... READ MORE
As investors review the performance of stocks in 2020, e-commerce names like AMZN and SHOP exemplify the transition from brick-and-mortar stores to an online shopping experience. In the new year, potential stimulus packages and a rollout of the coronavirus vaccine should allow consumers to go back to... READ MORE
As much as people speak of gold's value as a safe haven, its performance in 2020 has done much to dispel that investment thesis. Recent months have seen gold and gold stocks underperforming the S&P 500. Is the pattern of new highs for stocks and new... READ MORE
As much as people speak of gold's value as a safe haven, its performance in 2020 has done much to dispel that investment thesis. Recent months have seen gold and gold stocks underperforming the S&P 500. Is the pattern of new highs for stocks and new... READ MORE
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." - Sir John Templeton My macro process has three key steps: Price, Breadth and Sentiment. While most measures of price and breadth indicate the bull market is in decent shape, the third step... READ MORE
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." - Sir John Templeton My macro process has three key steps: Price, Breadth and Sentiment. While most measures of price and breadth indicate the bull market is in decent shape, the third step... READ MORE
The S&P 500 wrapped a rather volatile week by settling in at the upper end of the 3200-3600 range. One key breadth indicator shows clear similarities to the bull run in early October, and also provides a prescription for bulls looking for validation of further upside. *** This... READ MORE
The S&P 500 wrapped a rather volatile week by settling in at the upper end of the 3200-3600 range. One key breadth indicator shows clear similarities to the bull run in early October, and also provides a prescription for bulls looking for validation of further upside. Breadth... READ MORE
This past Monday, I asked three experts on the Presidential Cycle - Bruce Fraser, Jeff Hirsch, and Tom McClellan - to share their take on market trends around the election season. They delivered in a big way, and the result was a masterclass in how to learn from market history. In the... READ MORE
This past Monday, I asked three experts on the Presidential Cycle - Bruce Fraser, Jeff Hirsch, and Tom McClellan - to share their take on market trends around the election season. They delivered in a big way, and the result was a masterclass in how to learn from market history. In the... READ MORE
I would currently describe myself as a "cautious bull," in that I recognize that the market is trending higher, I'm prepared to follow that trend as long as it continues, and I'm always looking for some signs of potential weakness and/or exhaustion. Over... READ MORE
I would currently describe myself as a "cautious bull," in that I recognize that the market is trending higher, I'm prepared to follow that trend as long as it continues, and I'm always looking for some signs of potential weakness and/or exhaustion. Over... READ MORE
A consistent imperfect routine is way better than an inconsistent perfect routine. When I've worked with investors that are new to technical analysis, I often find that they spend too much time trying to perfect their analytical approach on a particular chart, and way too little time determining... READ MORE
A consistent imperfect routine is way better than an inconsistent perfect routine. When I've worked with investors that are new to technical analysis, I often find that they spend too much time trying to perfect their analytical approach on a particular chart, and way too little time determining... READ MORE
"Great chart, but it seems super short-term. When would you get out of this?" That was the reaction I received on social media when I posted this chart showing the relative strength of semiconductors to the S&P 500. In terms of my process, I focus... READ MORE
"Great chart, but it seems super short-term. When would you get out of this?" That was the reaction I received on social media when I posted this chart showing the relative strength of semiconductors to the S&P 500. In terms of my process, I focus... READ MORE
The last five months of market history are a blur for me. Back in mid-March, the S&P 500 was in free fall with no end in sight. Here we are in mid-August, and the S&P is retesting all-time highs. Trend-following is about... READ MORE
The last five months of market history are a blur for me. Back in mid-March, the S&P 500 was in free fall with no end in sight. Here we are in mid-August, and the S&P is retesting all-time highs. Trend-following is about... READ MORE
Last week on The Final Bar, one of our Mailbag questions related to Amazon.com (AMZN) and how far it has reached above its 200-day moving average. This phenomenon speaks to the long-term strength of AMZN's price movements, the short-term overreaching of the price since... READ MORE
This week on The Final Bar, one of our Mailbag questions related to Amazon.com (AMZN) and how far it has reached above its 200-day moving average. This phenomenon speaks to the long-term strength of AMZN's price movements, the short-term overreaching of the price since... READ MORE
I wrote this article for last Saturday's ChartWatchers newsletter, focusing on the overbought conditions rampant in mega cap technology and consumer names. Monday's selloff certainly changes the short-term look of most of these charts, potentially beginning the topping process I described below. The next move... READ MORE