In this video, Dave analyzes the bearish rotation in his Market Trend Model, highlighting the S&P 500 breakdown below the 200-day moving average and its downside potential. He also identifies five strong stocks with bullish technical setups despite market weakness. Watch now for key technical analysis insights to... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Once our "line in the sand" of SPX 5850 was broken, that confirmed a likely bear phase for stocks. * We can use Fibonacci Retracements to identify a potential downside objective based on the strength of the previous bull trend. * A confirmed sell signal from the Newer... READ MORE
In this video, Dave analyzes market conditions, bearish divergences, and leadership rotation in recent weeks. He examines the S&P 500 daily chart, highlighting how this week's selloff may confirm a bearish rotation and set downside price targets using moving averages and Fibonacci retracements. To validate a... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * ICE pushed to a new all-time high this week, completing a bullish rotation after finding Fibonacci support. * V has experienced a series of bullish breakouts after completing a cup-and-handle pattern in 2024. * JPM has pulled back to an ascending 50-day moving average, suggesting a potential short-term low during... READ MORE
In this video, Dave breaks down bearish macro signals and risk management using the "line in the sand" technique! Learn how to spot key support levels, set alerts on StockCharts, and protect your portfolio! This video originally premiered on February 26, 2025. Watch on StockCharts' dedicated David... READ MORE
In the later stages of a bull market cycle, we will often observe a proliferation of bearish momentum divergences. As prices continue higher, the momentum underneath the advance begins to wane, representing an exhaustion of buyers. We've identified a series of bearish momentum divergences in the early days... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Bearish momentum divergences suggest potential exhaustion of the bulls and limited upside. * Market breadth indicators have not confirmed recent highs, reflecting a lack of support outside the leading performers. * Dow Theory non-confirmation, a pattern first identified by Charles Dow, shows that market indexes are not confirming one another.... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * We can use the slope of moving averages, as well as a simple crossover technique, to define trends and identify trend changes. * Our Market Trend Model uses exponential moving averages, as they are more sensitive to changes in market direction. * Based on our Market Trend Model, the S&... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * META and NFLX remain in strong uptrend phases, with limited drawdowns in 2025. * Four of the Mag7 names can be classified as "broken charts", with recent breakdowns representing an important change of character. * AMZN and GOOGL offer perhaps the most concerning short-term patterns, with bearish momentum... READ MORE
In this video, Dave breaks down the formerly high-flying Mag 7 stocks into three distinct buckets. These include long & strong (META, NFLX & AMZN), broken down (TSLA, AAPL, MSFT & NVDA), and questionable (GOOGL). He also shows how GOOGL is not the only leading name featuring a bearish momentum... READ MORE
Have you ever held on too long to a winning position? You watch as that former top performer in your portfolio slows down, and then rotates lower, and then really begins to deteriorate, and you just watch it all happen without taking action? If the answer is "yes"... READ MORE
While the major equity averages are certainly up year-to-date, we're detecting a growing number of signs of leadership rotation. As the Magnificent 7 stocks have begun to falter, with charts like Apple Inc. (AAPL) taking on a less-than-magnificent luster in February, we've identified ten key stocks... READ MORE
In this video, Dave reveals three common behavioral biases, shows how they can negatively impact your portfolio returns, and describes how to use the StockCharts platform to minimize these biases in your investment process. He also shares specific examples, from gold to Pfizer to the S&P 500, and... READ MORE
In this video, Dave reviews the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) from a technical analysis perspective. He focuses on the recent failure at price gap resistance, the breakdown below price and moving average support, and the frequent appearance of bearish engulfing patterns which have often indicated major highs over the last... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) broke out of a six-month base this week, suggesting further upside potential. * While the breakout in SMH appears bullish, the ETF still has yet to eclipse a key price gap from July 2025. * A bearish engulfing pattern to end the week indicates... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * While the stronger US Dollar suggests caution for growth stocks, the ratios shows that growth continues to dominate value. * While macro conditions appear beneficial for small cap stocks, large caps are back to a confirmed leadership role. * Measures of offense vs. defensive suggest that investors are favoring offense... READ MORE
In this video, Dave shares five charts from his ChartList of market ratios that investors can use to track changing market conditions through 2025. If you want to better track shifts in market leadership, identify where funds are flowing, and stay on top of evolving market trends, make sure to... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The S&P 500 experienced a sudden upside reversal to finish the week right around the 6000 level. * If the market reacts positively to earnings, and Trump's new administration takes a more conservative approach, we could see the S&P 500 reach 6500 by... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Financials represent one of the top sector weights in the IWM, and banks have kicked off earnings season with renewed strength. * A resurgence in biotech stocks, one of the largest industries represented in the IWM, could provide an upside catalyst. * US Dollar strength could adversely impact mega cap... READ MORE
Will small cap stocks finally take on a leadership role in 2025? In this video, Dave provides a thorough technical analysis discussion of the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and how that compares to the current technical configuration of the S&P 500 index. He also shares three charts he&... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The break of SPX 5850 suggests further downside in January for the equity benchmarks. * Using price pattern analysis, we can use the height of the head and shoulders pattern to determine potential support around SPX 5600. * We can further validate this downside target using Fibonacci Retracements and moving... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Higher interest rates can directly impact industry groups like homebuilders, which are driven by consumers borrowing money. * While a normal shaped yield curve suggests optimism for economic growth, the transition from an inverted yield curve usually results in weaker stock prices. * The market trend remains the most important... READ MORE
In this video, Dave shares a long-term analysis of the Ten-Year Treasury Yield, breaks down how the shape of the yield curve has been a great leading indicator of recessionary periods and weaker stock prices, and outlines the chart he's watching to determine if early 2025 will look... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The Hindenburg Omen looks for patterns that have consistently shown at major market tops. * Using trend-following techniques like support and resistance levels can help to improve accuracy of macro indicators. * S&P 5850 remains the most important level in our view going into year-end 2024. This week... READ MORE
While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have been holding steady into this week's Fed meeting, warning signs under the hood have suggested one of two things is likely to happen going into Q1. Either a leadership rotation is amiss, with mega-cap growth stocks potentially taking... READ MORE
In recent interviews for my Market Misbehavior podcast, I've asked technical analysts including Frank Cappelleri, TG Watkins, and Tom Bowley what they see happening as we wrap a very successful 2024. With the Nasdaq 100 logging about a 30% gain for 2024, it's hard to imagine... READ MORE
In this video, Dave unveils his "line in the sand" technique to help determine when stocks in established uptrends may be near the end of the bullish phase. He'll share specific levels he's watching for the S&P 500, AMZN, TMUS, and KR,... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Low VIX reading implies that conditions are favorable for stocks. * The MOVE index is basically a VIX for bonds, and can help to corroborate volatility readings across asset classes. * High yield spreads remain quite narrow, implying bond investors perceive a low risk environment. "The market goes up... READ MORE
My recent discussions on the Market Misbehavior podcasthave often included some comments on the interest rate environment, particularly the shape of the yield curve. We've had an inverted yield curve since late 2022, and so the yield curve taking on a more normal shape could mean a huge... READ MORE
In this video, Dave reflects on the shape of the yield curve during previous bull and bear cycles with the help of StockCharts' Dynamic Yield Curve tool. He shares insights on interest rates as investors prepare for the final Fed meeting of 2024, and shares two additional charts he&... READ MORE
Having used many technical analysis platforms over my career as a technical analyst, I can tell you with a clear conscience that the ChartList feature on StockCharts provides exceptional capabilities to help you identify investment opportunities and manage risk in your portfolio. Once you get your portfolio or watch list... READ MORE
In this video, Dave shares how he uses the powerful ChartLists feature on StockCharts to analyze trends and momentum shifts as part of his daily, weekly, and monthly chart routines. He shows how mindful investors can use ChartLists to identify inflection points, focus on top performers, analyze performance trends, and... READ MORE
I've always found technical analysis to be a fantastic history lesson for the markets. If you want to consider how the current conditions relate to previous market cycles, just compare the charts; you'll usually have a pretty good starting point for the discussion. As we near... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Relative strength trends show a recent rotation into Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Financials, and Energy. * The offense to defense ratio still favors "things you want" over "things you need." * RRG charts give a fairly clear roadmap of what to look for rotation-wise into early... READ MORE
In this video, Dave outlines three tools he uses on the StockCharts platform to analyze sector rotation, from sector relative strength ratios to the powerful Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG). Dave shares how institutional investors think about sector rotation strategies, evaluating the current evidence to determine how money managers are allocating... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The Breakout Names have already broken to new all-time highs in Q4, but will they be able to hold those gains? * The Consolidating Charts have failed to break to new highs, so it's all about watching key price support levels. * The Wild Cards may be the... READ MORE
I was originally taught to use RSI as a swing trading tool, helping me to identify when the price of a particular asset was overextended to the upside and downside. And, on the swing trading time frame, that approach very much works, especially if you employ a shorter time period... READ MORE
When a stock shows an RSI value above 80, is that a good thing or a bad thing? In this video, Dave reviews a series of examples showing this "extreme overbought" condition, highlights how these signals usually occur not at the end of, but often earlier in an... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * We can define the market trend on multiple time frames using a series of exponential moving averages. * While our short-term Market Trend Model turned bearish last week, the medium-term and long-term models remain bullish. * 2021 could provide a compelling analogue to what we're experiencing so far... READ MORE
In this video, Dave breaks down the three time frames in his Market Trend Model, reveals the short-term bearish signal that flashed on Friday's close, relates the current configuration to previous bull and bear market cycles, and shares how investors can best track this model to ensure they&... READ MORE