GLOBAL STOCKS WERE ALREADY STRETCHED TOO FAR...The coronavirus outbreak in China has rattled global markets all over the world, and rightly so. Fears of an economic slowdown in the world's second biggest economy is something to be concerned about. And market reactions certainly suggest that investors are... READ MORE
DOW THREATENS 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE...Global stocks remain under pressure. My last message on Wednesday suggested that the continuing drop in bond yields and economically-sensitive commodities put the mid-week stock rebound in doubt. That still remains the case, not just here in the states; but even more so in foreign... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS AND COMMODITIES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...One of the recent warnings that I wrote about was the drop in bond yields that has taken place since the start of January. Most of that drop in yields took place last week when a flight to the safety of government bonds... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES CONTINUE SELLING THAT STARTED LAST WEEK...The selling of stocks that started late last week intensified today. That shouldn't be too much of a surprise considering all the warnings given by the various markets as described in these messages. They include the plunge in Treasury yields... READ MORE
Yesterday's message showed bond yields falling (and bond prices rising) in a flight to the safety of government bonds. And further suggested that fears of the Chinese virus spreading was most likely behind that more defensive tone. Bond yields are falling even further today as that defensive mood... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR PULLED LOWER BY TRAVEL AND ENTERTAINMENT STOCKS... Yesterday's message showed bond yields falling (and bond prices rising) in a flight to the safety of government bonds. And further suggested that fears of the Chinese virus spreading was most likely behind that more defensive tone. Bond... READ MORE
TREASURY BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO DROP... The drop in Treasury bond yields that started a month ago is continuing. And is nearing a test of some important support levels. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 30-Year Treasury yield (TYX) having already broken a rising trendline drawn under its... READ MORE
ENERGY STILL IN DECLINE... Despite today's snapback bounce in global stocks, one sector continues to weaken. And that's the energy sector. Chart 1 shows the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) falling further below its 50- and 200-day moving averages today. And that's in a rising... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES NEAR NEW RECORD... Small cap stocks are having an unusually strong day today. And are nearing a potential new record. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) trading at the highest level in sixteen months; and nearing a test of its previous... READ MORE
SIGNING OF TRADE DEAL BOOSTS STOCKS... Stocks celebrated the U.S. and China signing phase one of their historic trade deal today with the three major stock indexes hitting another record high. Despite some late selling this afternoon, stock indexes ended in positive territory. Stock indexes are still dealing with... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM STOCK VIEW LOOKS OVER-EXTENDED...Despite geopolitical concerns at the start of the week between the U.S. and Iran, stocks ended the week higher. All three major stock indexes also hit new records before experiencing some minor-profit-taking on Friday. All trends remain solidly higher here and around the world.... READ MORE
After several tense days, some calm is being restored to global markets. The fact that last night's attack by Iran on allied bases in Iraq resulted in no casualties; plus a more conciliatory-sounding speech by President Trump shortly before noon appear to have reduced geopolilitical tensions in the... READ MORE
GLOBAL STOCKS CLIMB ON CONCILIATORY REMARKS... After several tense days, some calm is being restored to global markets. The fact that last night's attack by Iran on allied bases in Iraq resulted in no casualties; plus a more conciliatory-sounding speech by President Trump shortly before noon appear to... READ MORE
CANADIAN DOLLAR HITS NEW 52-WEEK HIGH... A couple of my messages posted during Christmas week wrote about a more bullish outlook for commodity markets this year. And the likelihood for a weaker U.S. dollar. One of the messages wrote about the Canadian Dollar being the strongest developed market currency... READ MORE
ATTACK ON IRAN'S TOP GENERAL PUSHES OIL PRICES HIGHER... Overnight news of the killing of Iran's top general by the U.S. is having a reasonably predictable effect on global markets. Global stocks are experiencing some profit-taking, while money is flowing into traditional safe havens like... READ MORE
Yesterday's message suggested that commodity prices may be bottoming; which could lead to a better 2020 for the first time in years. Part of that analysis, however, was based on expectations for a lower dollar. That's because a falling dollar is usually necessary for commodity markets... READ MORE
WHY A LOWER DOLLAR...Yesterday's message suggested that commodity prices may be bottoming; which could lead to a better 2020 for the first time in years. Part of that analysis, however, was based on expectations for a lower dollar. That's because a falling dollar is usually... READ MORE
A WEAKER DOLLAR COULD GIVE COMMODITIES A BETTER 2020... Commodities have become the forgotten asset class over the past several years. And for good reason. They've been the weakest part of the financial universe for nearly a decade. But that doesn't mean that they should continue... READ MORE
GOLD IS TURNING HIGHER... Money appears to be flowing back into precious metals. Chart 1 shows the GOLD SPDR (GLD) rising above a falling trendline extending back to early September which suggests that the four-month downside correction may have run its course. It's also trading at the highest... READ MORE
ADD FOOTWEAR TO LIST OF XLY LEADERS... This week's messages have been focusing on the recent upside breakout in the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and groups that are leading it higher. The last two messages showed gambling and hotel stocks taking the lead with some of them hitting... READ MORE
DOW JONES HOTELS INDEX HITS NEW RECORD... Yesterday's message showed gambling stocks helping lead the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) into record territory this week. It also mentioned leadership from autos, footwear, and hotels. We're going to focus on hotels today. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones... READ MORE
GAMBLING STOCKS LEAD XLY TO RECORD...Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) hitting a new record high yesterday. The XLY closed above a flat trendline drawn over its July/September highs to complete a bullish "ascending triangle" formation. Assuming it can hold on to that upside... READ MORE
GLOBAL STOCKS START THE WEEK ON A STRONG NOTE... Stocks around the world are starting the week on a strong note. That includes foreign developed and emerging markets in Europe and Asia. The three U.S. stock indexes are hitting new records. So are a number of sector SPDRS including... READ MORE
Reports of a trade agreement between the U.S. and China pushed global stock prices sharply higher today. Chart 1 show the S&P 500 reaching record territory. So did the Nasdaq. Small cap stocks continued to show relative strength. Chart 2 shows the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) hitting... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES HIT NEW RECORDS...Reports of a trade agreement between the U.S. and China pushed global stock prices sharply higher today. Chart 1 show the S&P 500 reaching record territory. So did the Nasdaq. Small cap stocks continued to show relative strength. Chart 2 shows the... READ MORE
COPPER STOCKS REACH EIGHT-MONTH HIGH... My weekend message suggested that copper and stocks tied to it might be bottoming. This week's strong action by both appears to be confirming that optimistic view. Copper closed at a five-month high yesterday (and is trading higher again today). Materials are today&... READ MORE
STRONG JOBS REPORT ON FRIDAY BOOSTED COPPER BUT HURT GOLD...Friday's impressive jobs report took a lot of traders by surprise resulting in strong buying of stocks; which was accompanied by selling of Treasury bonds and other safe havens like gold. Riskier assets gained which included copper prices.... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES JUMP ON STRONG JOBS REPORT... A strong November jobs report has stocks jumping today. The three charts below show the three major U.S stock indexes gapping higher today; and pushing them further above their 20-day moving averages. The erases the earlier setback seen on Tuesday. And the... READ MORE
ASSET MANAGERS LEAD FINANCIALS HIGHER...Financials continue to show new market leadership. Most attention in that sector, however, is usually paid to bank stocks which are its biggest part. Some other financial groups are also doing well. Like asset managers which have been the strongest part of the financial sector... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES GAP HIGHER TODAY... After gapping lower yesterday, stocks are gapping higher today. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 also trying to regain its 20-day moving average (green line) that was violated yesterday. If this morning's gap to the upside holds... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES UNDERGO PROFIT-TAKING... Increased trade tensions are contributing to profit-taking in stocks today. That and the fact that major stock indexes were already in overbought territory and vulnerable to short-term profit-taking. All three have fallen below their 20-day moving averages which could lead to a test of 50-day lines.... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR SHOWS NEW LEADERSHIP... Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) rising today to the highest level in six weeks. That's setting up a possible test of its declining trendline drawn over its July/September peaks. The overall shape of its pattern since July looks... READ MORE
RUSSELL 2000 HAS BREAKOUT DAY...Stocks around the world are off to a strong start to the week. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are hitting new records; while the Dow isn't far behind. Most stock sectors are also rising led by technology, healthcare, cyclicals, industrials, and... READ MORE
Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Friday, November 22nd at 12:01pm ET. Last Friday's message wrote about healthcare stocks going from one of the market's weakest sectors to one of the strongest. During the... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE CONTINUES TO GET STRONGER... Last Friday's message wrote about healthcare stocks going from one of the market's weakest sectors to one of the strongest. During the first eleven months of the year, healthcare was the market's second weakest sector (with only energy doing... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES PULL BACK FROM OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY... News that a "phase one" trade deal may not be reached this year is contributing to selling in stocks today. That and the fact that stocks have reached overbought territory and are probably due for some profit-taking anyway. In fact, several... READ MORE
Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Friday, November 15th at 4:14pm ET. Stocks are ending the week in record territory. The three charts below show the three major U.S. stock indexes closing at record highs on Friday.... READ MORE
THREE MAJOR STOCK INDEXES HIT NEW RECORDS...Stocks are ending the week in record territory. The three charts below show the three major U.S. stock indexes closing at record highs on Friday. And the rally is pretty broad-based. Ten of the eleven market sectors gained on the day. Healthcare... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES HOLD THEIR GAINS... The first three charts below show the major stock indexes holding onto their November gains. All three remain above their July highs which should now provide support on any pullbacks. [Broken overhead resistance becomes new support. That's why the red horizontal trendlines... READ MORE
WEEKLY SECTOR RANKINGS...Chart 1 lists the eleven stock market sectors in order of relative strength for the past week. There aren't any surprises there; but there is more confirmation of recent rotations within the stock market showing more confidence in the market and the global economy. Financials... READ MORE