ATLANTIC CITY MONEY SHOW... I spent Thurday and Friday at the Atlantic City Money Show. While there, I had a chance to speak with many of our members who were kind enough to come up and say hello. That's always the nicest part of appearing at these shows.... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS JUMP AGAIN... T-bond and T-note prices fell heavily today, which pushed yields higher. The 10-year T-note yield ended the day at 4.44%. That once again puts yields within striking distance of yearly highs. Yesterday, we showed that yields were testing a three-year down trendline. A new high... READ MORE
BANKS AND BROKERS ARE FALLING... Our Friday evening update showed healthcare and financials pulling the market lower. That trend is continuing in Monday trading. The bank and brokerage indexes have fallen under their 50-day averages. The Bank Index, which is the weaker of the two, is threatening its early July... READ MORE
BOND PRICES ARE OVERSOLD... Bonds bounced a bit today, which means that yields fell a bit. Chart 1 shows that the 10-year T-note yield is overbought (which means that bond prices are oversold). The daily RSI line has moved back under 70 for the first time in three weeks, which... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE AND FINANCIALS BREAK MOVING AVERAGE SUPPORT... All market sectors lost ground on Friday. Two of the biggest losers, however, were the healthcare and financial groups. The Dow Jones Healthcare Index fell decisively under its 50-day moving average. Drugs were hit especially hard. In the financial sector, banks and brokers... READ MORE
YIELDS HIT NEW 12-MONTH HIGH... A whole battery of strong economic news today appears to be confirming what the bond market has been telling us for weeks -- that the economy is getting stronger. As Chart 1 shows, that news has pushed the 10-year T-note yield to the highest level... READ MORE
DOW UNABLE TO SET NEW HIGH... The Dow Industrials made a run at the June 17 intra-day high at 9352. After hitting 9362 earlier in the day, it faded to close up only 33 points at 9233. Chart 1 shows the daily bars. It's normally not a good... READ MORE
LEADERSHIP LOSES MOMENTUM... Upside momentum in the leading market indexes continues to weaken. To demonstrate that, we're applying the Average Directional Index (or the ADX line) to the chart of the Nasdaq 100. The ADX line measures the strength of the existing trend. A rising ADX, therefore, is... READ MORE
FIDELITY SELECT GOLD IS NUMBER ONE FOR THE WEEK... It should come as no surprise to find that last week's sector mutual fund leaders were in commodity-related groups like gold and industrial materials. We showed several charts last week of individual stocks in this area breaking out to... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS HIT NEW RECOVERY HIGH... Of the three Dow Averages, the Transports are turning in the strongest performance. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports hitting a new high for the year. Yesterday, we showed Ryder rallying as part of a rotation into cyclical stocks. Today's transport leaders are... READ MORE
50-DAY AVERAGES CONTINUE TO HOLD... We've been talking a lot lately about 50-day moving averages. That's because that's an important support line during any consoldation period -- like the one we're in now. The S&P 500 has been bouncing off... READ MORE
DRUG INDEX IS SLIDING... Drug stocks are coming under some heavy selling pressure today. That's reflected in the AMEX Pharmaceutical Index, which slipped under its 50-day line last week. The DRG appears headed toward its May low and its 200-day line. Disappointing earnings from Merck is part of... READ MORE
SURGE OVER 4%... The yield on the 10-year T-note jumped to 4.17% today, which was the highest close in since last December. We offered the view last week that long-term rates had probably hit bottom. Today's surge in long-term rates strengthens that view. We also suggested last... READ MORE
DOW STAYS ABOVE 9,000... Of all the stock indexes we're watching, the Dow is in the most critical spot. That's because it was the last of the major indexes to breakout to the upside. And, it's been retesting its breakout point near 9,... READ MORE
IBM LEADS DOW LOWER... Last night, IBM reported solid earnings. Today, the stock fell heavily on big volume. That's what happens when the market builds in expectations that are unrealistically high. The big selloff in IBM that started in overnight trading set a gloomy tone in the entire... READ MORE
UPBREAT TESTIMONY... Mr. Greenspan's upbeat testimony before Congress isn't having the effect he'd like to see. The Fed chairman testified that the Fed would keep rates as low as possible to support an "accelerating" economic recovery. Unfortunately, the Fed can't... READ MORE
MARKETS DON'T BUY FED JAWBONING... It seems Mr. Greenspan has lost respect for the markets -- and the intelligence of its participants. In today's testimony, he promised to keep interest rates down to promote an economic recovery that he saw accelerating. He also said that "... READ MORE
LARGE CAPS NEED ANOTHER BREAKOUT... Earlier in the week I noted that small caps were leading the market advance, which is a good thing. For the uptrend to continue, however, the large caps have to confirm the upside breakout in the small cap stocks. Chart 1 shows the S&... READ MORE
NASDAQ LEADERS... The Nasdaq touched another 52-week high and continues to lead the market higher. The first three charts show some of the day's biggest percentage gainers in the Nasdaq. Ciena soared to a six-month high on monster volume. That's a strong combination. RF Micro Devices... READ MORE
LOW VOLUME LOSSES... A weak employment report this morning caused a little nervous profit-taking in the stock market. The fact that today is the eve of a three-day weekend may have also caused a little selling. Even with only a half day of trading, volume was very light. We'... READ MORE
MAJOR AVERAGES HOLD SUPPORT... After trading lower throughout the morning, all the major stock averages closed higher today. All things considered, it was a pretty impressive performance. Breadth figures were positive -- especially on the big board. The only thing missing was heavier volume. But up volume did exceed down... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS JUMP... Within two days after the Fed lowered short-term rates to 1.00%, long-term rates are jumping. I'm sure that's not what the Fed wanted -- nor the stock market. At mid-week, I wrote that a move over 3.50% by the 10-year T-note... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS JUMP SHARPLY... The Fed cut the Fed funds rate a quarter point today to l.00%. That's the lowest level in 45 years. [The Fed fund rate stood at 6.50% in January 2001 when the Fed started cutting]. Even so, the bond and stock markets... READ MORE
FALLING DOLLAR HAS BOOSTED COMMODITY PRICES... Deflation is one of the main issues the Fed is dealing with. With another Fed decision on interest rates less than a day way, I thought it a good time to review the relationship between the dollar and commodity prices. We've pointed... READ MORE
NOT ALL BULLS ARE THE SAME... As usual, there's a debate going on as to whether the current market advance is a bear market rally or a new bull market. Our position, which we've expressed many times before, is that we're in a "... READ MORE
PROFIT-TAKING IN BIOTECHS... Biotechs are one of the day's weakest market groups. The daily chart shows the BTK slipping into a short-term correction. The RSI line is dropping and the MACD lines have turned negative for the first time in two months. Given the steepness of the recent... READ MORE
MARKET SHOWING NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE... Once again, the short-term picture for the market is showing signs of weakening. Earlier today we charted the S&P 500 showing "negative divergence" from some of its short-term oscillars. This evening we'll look at the Nasdaq 100 which, in my... READ MORE
GOLD BUGS INDEX HITS NEW HIGH... Chart 1 shows the AMEX Gold Bugs Index jumping over 5 points today. In so doing, the HUI broke through the high formed in January. That's only part of the story. The weekly bars in Chart 2 shows that today's... READ MORE
DRUG INDEX HITS 52-WEEK HIGH... Drug stocks are leading a Monday market rally. Chart 1 shows the AMEX Pharmaceutical Index climbing to the highest level in a year. Chart 2 may also carry a bullish message for the drug group. The weekly chart shows the DRG in the process of... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE LEADERSHIP... Heathcare was the top performing group today in a strong market. Applera Corp -- Applied Biosystems Group was the top percentage gainer in a strong biotech group. The weekly chart shows that this is the first move over 20 since last December. It also shows that the next... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 RALLY STALLING... Last Friday we pointed out the potential for a downside "key reversal" day, which took place on heavy volume. This week the Nasdaq 100 has been creeping higher, but on relatively light volume. In addition it has remained beneath last Friday's intra-day... READ MORE
DROP IN PPI NUMBER SENDS BOND YIELDS LOWER... Today's negative PPI report means that wholesale prices (prices paid to producers) have been dropping for two months in a row. Falling prices raise fears of deflation, which is normally good for bonds and bad for stocks. At least that&... READ MORE
SOX DOWN 3%... The Semiconductor (SOX) Index has fallen 3% in morning trading and is the weakest part of the stock market. It also explains the morning's relative weakness in the technology sector. The daily chart shows the SOX moving down to test its first line of support... READ MORE
COMMODITY COMPARISONS... Mr. Greenspan has called a lot of attention over the past week to the strong upside potential in the natural gas market. We agree with his observations. Our charts suggest that natural has the most upside potential of all the energy markets. Even on a short-term basis, natural... READ MORE
NATURAL GAS LEADERS -- APACHE AND BURLINGTON... As a followup to our earlier update on a rising energy group, following are the leading stocks in each of the three energy indexes. In the natural gas group, Apache Corp has just broken through its late 2000 peak to score another upside... READ MORE
OVERSOLD DOLLAR BOUNCING -- EURO IS SLIPPING... Last Wednesday, we published an update entitled "Oversold Dollar Due For a Bounce". That analysis was based on two factors. One was that the Dollar Index had reached a long-term support level in the low 90s (which was the low hit... READ MORE
FREDDIE MAC TUMBLES... A high-level management shakeup at Freddie Mac sent that stock tumbling today in massive trading. The stock fell to a 52-week low before ending just above 50. While today's news clearly shocked the market, the monthly chart shows that FRE had already been deteriorating. The... READ MORE
DOWNSIDE REVERSAL ON HEAVY VOLUME... After climbing to the highest level in a year, the Nasdaq Composite Index suffered an apparent "key reversal day" on Friday. That's usually described as a higher open followed by a lower close -- and on heavy volume. That pretty much... READ MORE
ECB CUTS RATES TO 50-YEAR LOW... As was expected, the European Central Bank lowered short-term interest rates 50 basis points today to the lowest level in fifty years. What is a little surprising is that the Euro rose after the announcement -- while the dollar sold off. That suggests that... READ MORE
NEWMONT MINING NEARS MAJOR BREAKOUT... Our mid-day update talked about the ECB rate cut actually boosting the Euro and the price of gold today. The dollar fell. As a result, gold prices gained $5.00 and gold stocks jumped 4%. One of the best performing gold stocks is Newmont Mining,... READ MORE